New Zealand Warriors (11th) v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (12th)
The Warriors played to their potential in Round 14, travelling to the Gold Coast and delivering a comprehensive 34-12 win. In their first away win for the season, they Warriors dominated majority of the first half to create a 24-4 HT lead. The visitors quickly nullified an early resurgence from the home team as they cruised to a comfortable victory. Finally, the poise and measure that is uncharacteristic of the Warriors, yet a feature of their play in 2017, paid dividends for them; they completed at 86%, with just 9 errors and 19 missed tackles. The win came at a vital time as it ensured they maintained contact with the Top 8 and restored confidence in a struggling team. It was a similar set of circumstance for the Bulldogs, who halted a 4-game losing streak that reached a low point in a 38-nil loss to the Panthers in Round 13. The Bulldogs were quickly sliding down the ladder and needed the victory to regain momentum. The win over the Dragons wasn’t pretty by any measure and the level at which the visitors executed at was significantly below their best. Nevertheless, with 55% share of possession and completing at 83%, the Bulldogs gave themselves every chance of winning the contest. There are still several question marks lingering about the potency of their attack and their ability to capitalise on positive attacking position. Scoring a try in the 53rd minute broke a 188-minute drought between scoring tries in matches. The travel across to New Zealand is bound to test them further, in a match where both teams are attempting to keep their Top 8 chances alive.
Team News
Warriors = Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad returns on the wing for Solomone Kata (injured), with Nathaniel Roache named on the bench in place of Ata Hingano.
Bulldogs = Josh Reynolds (injury) returns at 5/8, forcing Matt Frawley back to the bench and Kerrod Holland out of the team.
History
Overall = Warriors 12 Draw 2 Bulldogs 17
Last 5 matches = Warriors 1 Bulldogs 4
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 59% Bulldogs 36%
Form = Warriors 1 win – Bulldogs 1 win
Verdict
The Warriors head into this game as favorites, with many believing that they can replicate their effort against the Titans; then again, the form and quality of their opponents in that match can be questioned. Scarily, while that effort was good, it is by no means their potential; they have plenty improvement left within them. The Bulldogs win over the Dragons painted over the cracks, which still exist within this team. It was an ugly performance that suggests they will struggle with the trip across the Tasman. Despite already beating the Warriors this season in New Zealand (R3 24-12) in Dunedin, the Bulldogs have an average record at this ground. It is positive that they have won 6 out of the past 7 meetings between the two sides and coming off their best performance this year, they will fancy themselves to cause an upset. The impact that Reynolds will have on the Bulldogs is expected to be positive, although more often than not, the returning player needs a week or so to adjust to the game speed again. Taking the Warriors would still be a major risk, regardless of what they demonstrated in their last match. The impending loss of Foran only hampers their chances further and makes the task of winning this game more difficult. This game is appearing more and more like one that you should stay away from, especially with the form of either team still questionable at best. For the sake of a head-to-head selection, it makes more sense to select the Bulldogs based on their win over the Warriors earlier in the year and the loss of a key player for their opponents. Rather than invest on that though, this game should be a tight contest; of the past 5 meetings between the two sides, the average winning margin is 5-points. With little to split them on the competition ladder and selecting a winner in this game, the eventual margin falling within this range to either team appears the way to go.
Suggested Bet
Either Team Under 6.5 points @ $2.70
Wests Tigers (16th) v Gold Coast Titans (14th)
The Tigers were full of hope and promise against the Sharks last week, narrowly going down to their opponents for the second time this year, by 2-points. Unfortunately, due to the bye round, it meant that they were also moved to last on the competition ladder. They produced one of their most impressive efforts of the season and given the players that were missing, it is a positive sign moving into 2018. The Tigers completed at 85% and had just 6 errors, while their 36 missed tackles was still too high; this ultimately lead to the Sharks scoring 4 tries in the last 29 minutes to capture victory. The Titans weren’t as gallant in their efforts against the Warriors in Round 14, comprehensively beaten 34-12 in Round 14. Apart from having just 46% possession and completing at 71%, there wasn’t too much else to blame for their loss. It could simply be defined by a lack of execution when in mattered and an inability to halt the Warriors momentum. Missing conversions would’ve made the eventual margin more respectable, yet it was not the case. Last week against the Rabbitohs, they started very strong and looked to be on the verge of causing an upset. Unforauntely for them, once their opponents gathered enough possession in the second half, the Titans didn’t have the defensive quality to limit their opponents attacking opportunities and in the end, the 52 missed tackles over the match got the better of them. The Titans are at a point of their season now where one more loss could mean the end to their Finals aspirations; expect them to be desperate, just as the Tigers will be, to drag themselves off the bottom of the competition ladder.
Team News
Tigers = James Tedesco and Aaron Woods (both Origin) are named to return, with Malakai Watene-Zeleniak and Tim Grant (suspension) making way. Jacob Liddle starts at hooker and Matt McIlwrick drops back to the bench.
Titans = Jarryd Hayne (fullback), Nathan Peats (hooker) and Jarrod Wallace (prop) are named to return from Origin duty. Will Zillman (injury) and Anthony Don (injury) are named on the wings for John Olive and Phillip Sami, who drop out of the team. Chris McQueen moves back into the second row to partner Max King, with Joe Greenwood moving back to the bench.
History
Overall = Tigers 7 Titans 10
Last 5 matches = Tigers 1 Titans 4
At Campbelltown Stadium = Tigers 45% Titans 50%
Form = Tigers 6 losses – Titans 5 losses
Verdict
The Titans head into this game as favorites and rightly so given the poor form of the Tigers so far this season. They will want to come out and make amends for their poor effort against the Warriors, while also keeping alive their Finals aspirations. The loss of Tedesco hampers the Tigers further, although they will take confidence away from their performance last week without their two Representative stars. If anything, it is yet another chance for an underrated player to step up and fill the void. Then again, without the quality within their team, a win to the home team would shock to the system. The Tigers still average the most missed tackles in the competition (36.8 per game), the third least amount of line breaks per game (2.9 per game) and the lowest amount of try assists (1.4 per game). This game is there for the Titans to lose and very rarely this season have they gone into a match and not given a genuine effort. The average winning margin in the past 5 matches between these two teams sits at 7.4 points; while travelling is no issue for the Titans, averaging an 8-point winning margin in their last 3 trips south. With that in mind, the Titans should be able to cover the line and record a solid win to return to their winning momentum. There is some doubt about a few of the Titans Origin stars backing up for this game, regardless, the visitors should still be too strong for their opponents.
Suggested Bet
Titans -3.5 @ $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys (7th) v Penrith Panthers (8th)
The Cowboys headed to Melbourne last week, minus their State of Origin stars, hopeful that facing the Storm in the same circumstances would keep them competitive. Unfortunately for them, as gallant as they were, the Cowboys were unable to produce an upset, eventually going down by 1-point in Golden Point. The Cowboys ensured they gave their opponent’s limited opportunities, completing at 89% and committing just 4 errors. The game was a thrilling contest given the lack of quality and the loss means they are further away from the Top 4. They face the Panthers, a team who is on the edge of the Top 8 and gathering momentum with each performance. It has been 2 weeks since their epic 4-point win over the Raiders in Bathurst. In that performance, they produced a stunning set of consecutive tries in the last 2 minutes of play to break the hearts of their opponents and their fans. It was the third time in four weeks that the Panthers have produced a “come-from-behind”, something that is becoming an unwanted habit. As long as they are winning, it probably isn’t going to be an issue, although had the quality of their opponents been better, the outcome may have not been so kind. There are plenty of areas that they can improve upon in the match also; they completed at just 68%, missed a massive 54 tackles and committed 15 errors. The Panthers are on the verge of playing some enterprising rugby league, yet are failing to get the little things right over 80 minutes. This will undoubtedly be another tough test for them, especially considering the struggles they have experienced previously at this ground.
Team News
Cowboys = Michael Morgan (5/8), Johnathan Thurston (halfback), Gavin Cooper (second row) and Coen Hess (bench) are all named to return. This pushes Javid Bowen, Kyle Laybutt, Ray Thompson and Ben Spina (injured) out of the team.
Panthers = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Cowboys 15 Panthers 15
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 4 Panthers 1
At 1300Smiles Stadium = Cowboys 76% Panthers 20%
Form = Cowboys 1 loss – Panthers 4 wins
Verdict
With news breaking on Friday that the Cowboys will be without JT for the remainder of the season, this is a match that they must use in order to promote success later in the year. It is no secret that they struggle without their gifted playmaker; yet, this predicament offers a new opportunity for someone else to fill the void. Make no mistake, they will not be able to get close to the contribution that Thurston offers and the Cowboys will struggle each week. As for this match, the Panthers will need to overcome a recent poor record that has seen their opponents win 6 out of the past 7 meetings between the two sides. A major positive for them is that they have no player committed to Origin and will head to Townsville fresh following a week off. The odds have shifted into their favor following the news of JT’s withdrawal, yet they have plenty of areas to address before they consider themselves a chance of winning. They still have an average of 33.2 missed tackles per game and commit 11.5 errors per match; both of which are worse than the Cowboys. Coming from behind in their last few wins is creating a bad habit for them also, with the Cowboys expected to chew plenty of energy out of their playmakers to limit their effectiveness on the other side of the ball. More is needed from the Panthers before you can select them in a match like this one; they will have the tough task of also trying to limit Taumalolo and that man has proven several times this year that teams need to stop him in order to win a match. The Cowboys should just get home in this game, albeit, by a very small margin. Two out of their past three meetings have been decided by 5 points or less and the same is expected here with plenty to play for.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys +4.5 @ $1.60
Canberra Raiders (10th) v Brisbane Broncos (4th)
It was a heartbreaking defeat for all involved with the Raiders back in Round 14, as they conceded 2 tries in the final 2 minutes of play, handing them a 4-point loss by the Panthers. Across the 80 minutes, the Raiders executed at a decent level as they had 53% possession and completed at 81%. Their issues came in defence, missing 37 tackles, most notably at crucial points when the game was on the line. That loss has pushed the Raiders out of the Top 8 and they are desperate to get their season back on track. That loss demonstrated the inexperience that lies within this team and they are still searching for their best in 2017. The Broncos will pose a strong threat, following their 6-point win over the Rabbitohs that has them 2-points away from 2nd place on the competition ladder. Their effort in Round 14 was enough to ensure victory, although they were never comfortable until the final whistle, with a try in the 73rd minute bring the Rabbitohs back into the match and a genuine threat of stealing victory. It was a typical effort from the Broncos on a Friday night, as they controlled possession and made less errors. Unfortunately for the Broncos, they suffered an injury to Anthony Milford, with Wayne Bennett forced into recalling rejected halfback Ben Hunt into the squad. He was initially dropped following his decision to sign with the Dragons from 2018 and was applying his craft notably in the Queensland Cup. That is bound to create some tension within the team, enhanced by the naming of Benji Marshall to start ahead of Hunt. If the Raiders
Team News
Raiders = Shannon Boyd (injury) returns at prop, forcing Luke Bateman back to the bench and Royce Hunt out of the team.
Broncos = Benji Marshall is named at 5/8 to cover for Anthony Milford (injured), with Ben Hunt ebing named on the bench.
History
Overall = Raiders 12 Draw 1 Broncos 18
Last 5 matches = Raiders 1 Broncos 4
At GIO Stadium = Raiders 54% Broncos 54%
Form = Raiders 2 losses – Broncos 1 win
Verdict
The Raiders moved into favorites for this game following the news of Darius Boyd’s withdrawal to an injury; there are a few other players that could be rested for the match following Wednesday, although that will not be confirmed until just prior to KO. The Raiders need all the help they can get as they haven’t beaten the Broncos since Round 13, 2013. That streak was continued back in Round 4, when the Broncos edged home by 13-12 courtesy of a 74th minute FG. The trip south hasn’t worried the Broncos in the past; they have won 3 out of the past 5 matches in Canberra by 12 points or more. The recent history between the two sides tells a different story though, with the average margin from the past 3 matches sitting at 7 points. As for this game, if just Boyd is missing for the Broncos, the Raiders are going to have a difficult time winning this contest; if several others withdraw prior to KO then the nature of this game changes dramatically. They will probably find parts of the game a challenge regardless; up to this point of the season, they are yet to establish themselves as a genuine Top 8 team. The heartbreaking loss to the Panthers only confirmed this and with just 1 player on Representative duty, they should head into this game fresh and ready to rise up the competition ladder. With just 6 wins this season from 14 matches, there is little wonder as to why confidence is so low when investing on them. If anything, this game is season defining for them; if they cannot beat their opponents given their current circumstances, then perhaps they should rethink their aspirations to play Finals football. Even with players missing, the Broncos defensive structure has been outstanding in 2017; this should keep the game relatively close as the Raiders playmakers still struggle for confidence. All things considered, the home team should win this contest, albeit, by a narrow margin given the recent history between the two sides.
Suggested Bet
Raiders 1-12 @ $2.90
Sydney Roosters (2nd) v Melbourne Storm (1st)
For the second time within 3 weeks, fans are blessed with the opportunity to see a “top of the table” clash between the two leading teams in the competition. It is a shame that this game will take place in Adelaide though, with fans robbed of the opportunity to view this game live. The Roosters take plenty of momentum into this game following their 22-point win over the Tigers in Round 14, a win that showed the distinct different in class between the top and bottom teams in the competition, as well as just how easily they are capable of scoring points. As the Roosters played an entertaining brand of football, they racked up 20 errors for the match, however that mattered little as they continually penetrated their opponent’s defensive line. The underlying factor was the 19 missed tackles they made, a statistics, which highlights the level of pride that is taken in this area of the game. The Storm are coming off a thrilling 1-point Golden Point win over the Cowboys without their Origin stars; a win that showcased the next generation of stars coming through for the Storm. They have a unique system that has the ability to continually produce players that exhibit a high level of motivation over 80 minutes. Looking at the statistics of this game, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Storms key players were present; they completed at 75%, committed 9 errors and missed 29 tackles. Now that they are sitting 4-points clear at the top of NRL, other teams in the competition are setting a new standard to strive to beat the Storm each time they are facing them in a match. The amount of Origin players backing up from Wednesday will undoubtedly impact upon this game and it will be interesting to see if that affects the result.
Team News
Roosters = Daniel Tupou (injury) returns to the wing, pushing Joseph Manu back to the centres and allowing Mitchell Aubusson to be moved back into the back row.
Storm = Billy Slater (fullback), Will Chambers (centre), Cooper Cronk (halfback) and Tim Glasby (prop) are all named to back up from Wednesday. All of those players except for Glasby will be rested, meaning that the reserves dropping to the bench could again feature. This includes Slade Griffin from the bench, along with Brodie Croft, Brandon Smith, Dean Britt and Ryley Jacks who either dropped out of the team or to the reserves.
History
Overall = Roosters 14 Storm 18
Last 5 matches = Roosters 1 Storm 4
At Adelaide Oval = Never played at this ground
Form = Roosters 2 wins – Storm 4 wins
Verdict
Unfortunately, yet another game is drastically impacted by player withdrawal following Wednesday; the Storm have already admitted that they will rest 4 out of their 5 Origin stars, while the Roosters are forced to cover for Boyd Cordner’s injury. This has caused the Roosters to firm up in betting markets dramatically, with the Storm drifting to be massive outsiders for this game. The effort of their young side last week against the Cowboys is something to consider; sure, their opponents were lacking quality, yet there was a lot to be impressed with during this contest. They still have a strong pack of forwards that will target the brutal Roosters pack and attempt to establish a win from this area. The Roosters are a classy team though and hold numerous attacking options. They have shown this season how they are capable of scoring points, even if they do average 11.9 errors per game (highest in the league). This would be an area of concern had the Storm been at full strength but is forgotten now they are lacking the playmaking leadership within their team. The fact that Criag Bellamy is prepared to drop this game in order to prolong his teams season towards the business end of the year shows the attitude within this club and it is bound to show on the field; this is a positive that ensure the players stepping into the team know their job and what needs to be achieved for success. Still, that will not be enough for them here as they face a team that has the best attack in the league (22.6 points per game) and is ranked 4th for defence (16.3 PPG). The Storm have the best defence (15.1 PPG) but rely on the match being dragged into an “arm wrestle” type of contest. It is highly unlikely that this will occur, with the Roosters set to close the gap on the Storm on the ladder. As for the margin, the Storm rarely lose by a 13+ margin (has only happened once since the beginning of 2016), yet the Roosters have achieved this twice in their past 3 wins over their opponents (Rd 13, 2014 & Rd 12, 2015). Their average margin in the past 3 wins sits at 18 points and with quality missing from the Storm, the pressure building from the Roosters over 80 minutes may just get the better of the competition leaders.
Suggested Bet
Roosters 13+ @ $2.30
St George-Illawarra Dragons (6th) v Newcastle Knights (15th)
The Dragons took a major step backwards in Round 14 against the Bulldogs, going scoreless in a game they were expected to perform well in. Losing their representative stars against the Eels, a team who had all available plays, meant they were going to struggle. Increased pressure on other players in the squad was showing; they completed at 73% and made 11 errors over 80 minutes. Other areas were split evenly between the two teams and this demonstrated the lack of efficiency in crucial attacking position. Unfortunately for them, this now mean that they have won just twice in their past 7 matches and they have now dropped out of the Top 4. Other teams are chasing them and another few losses could mean a drop out of the Top 8 altogether. They will fancy their chances here against the Knights, who have proven this time on numerous occasions that they lack the same quality as other teams in the competition. They will take confidence that they have moved off the bottom of the competition ladder courtesy of the bye, as well as their efforts in Round 14 against the Sea Eagles. A 4-points loss in horrible conditions could’ve easily gone the other way had a clear knock-on not been awarded as a try to their opponents. In the long run, it was the different in the result, although there is still doubt as to whether or not the Knights would’ve won the match. Nevertheless, with a squad that is rebuilding for 2018 and beyond, they will be out to make the most of every opportunity presented to them. With the Dragons form dipping in recent weeks, they may just sense the opportunity to produce a positive result.
Team News
Dragons = Josh Dugan (Origin) is named to return at fullback, with Jason Nightingale moving back to the wing at the expense of Kalifa Faifai Loa. Tyson Frizell has only been named in the reserves, who will likely feature for Jack de Belin (suspended).
Knights = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Dragons 23 Knights 10
Last 5 matches = Dragons 1 Knights 4
At UOW Jubilee Oval = Dragons 63% Knights 38%
Form = Dragons 1 win – Knights 3 losses
Verdict
This game is coming at an ideal time for the Dragons, as they desperately need to regain some confidence in their ability and play. The Knights are aware that they are going to struggle each week and this is only enhanced when they play a team within the Top 8. They will hopefully come into this game with confidence after their fantastic effort against the Sea Eagles, although maintain that consistency is proving difficult for them to manage each week. The odds accurately reflect the difference between the two sides and the return of the Dragons representative players should have little impact on the result, only the margin. The home team appears set to regain their attacking momentum that has seen them average 21.2 points per game (7th in the competition) and scoring 3.7 tries per game (6th in the competition). More importantly, they sit high on the ladder for line breaks (4th with 4.6 per game) and last in the league for missed tackles (24.9 per game); these are two key areas that should resemble the difference in class between these two teams. The decision of who to back in this contest is easy with the Dragons set to get their season back on track and majority of statistics points towards a comfortable victory as their last 4 wins over the nights has been at an average of 12.3 points. Since then, their attack has improved noticeably and the team that has concedes the most points in the competition in the Knights with an average of 27 per game will find it difficult to halt their opponents momentum in this contest.
Suggested Bet
Dragons 13+ @ $2
Macdonald’s for all! = Nene Macdonald FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – He scored the first try for the Dragons last week and is improving his attacking ability. Macdonald is a genuine threat in the air and on the ground, with this added dimension to his game destined to challenge the Knights on their left edge.
Cronulla Sharks (3rd) v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (5th)
This is arguably the game of the round given the respective position of each team on the competition ladder. The Sharks came out and recorded a 2-point win over the Tigers that saw them score two tries in 6 minutes to steal victory away with time quickly running out. They were perhaps guilty of taking their opponents lightly given their struggles and were not aided by the absence of their representative players. What is more worrying is the fact that they have overcome a HT deficit in their past 5 wins. Regardless, it was an important win for them given their 5-point defeat by the Storm at home the previous week, causing them to drop to 3rd on the ladder. As they were falling, the Sea Eagles were climbing and will hopefully head into this game fresh, following their week off. Previously, they recorded an ugly 4-point win over the Knights in controversial circumstances. Nevertheless, like the Sharks last week, they will take the win an did enough in horrendous conditions to outclass their opponents. Their recent form has been impressive, winning 5 out of the past 6 matches, perhaps the benefit of the quality they have faced; in this period, their only loss has come at the hands of the Broncos, who are also the only Top 8 team they have played in this run. That aside, they have been playing a measured brand of rugby league, making the fewest errors of any team in the competition (9.4 per game). This creates attacking momentum and power; something the Sharks have struggled with committing 11.7 errors per game (2nd worst in the league). Nevertheless, they have a distinct presence of class when the pressure is on and this team knows how to win. This is the toughest test for the Sea Eagles in recent weeks and a large measure of whether or not they will be capable of competing during the Finals later in the year.
Team News
Sharks = Valentine Holmes (fullback), Jack Bird (centre), James Maloney (5/8), Andrew Fifita (prop) and Wade Graham (second row) all return from Origin. Jayson Bukuya, Kurt Capewell and Chris Heighington drop back to the bench, along with Daniel Mortimer.
Sea Eagles = Darcy Lussick is named on the bench in place of Jackson Hastings.
History
Overall = Sharks 9 Sea Eagles 18
Last 5 matches = Sharks 1 Sea Eagles 4
At Southern Cross Group Stadium = Sharks 55% Sea Eagles 50%
Form = Sharks 1 win – Sea Eagles 3 wins
Verdict
The Sharks struggles at home this season is an area of concern, especially when the Sea Eagles have won 13 out of the past 15 encounters between the two sides. For a visiting team, heading south to Cronulla hasn’t held too many issues in the past and they will again fancy their chances. The Sharks have been marked as strong favorites in this game, although the match is perhaps a lot closer than most think. These odds are a reflecting of the quality that the Sea Eagles have played in the last few weeks and their scrappy win over the Knights. The errors that are present within the Sharks game are still limiting their effectiveness to build pressure on their opponents and the Sea Eagles will have to use this to their advantage during matches. It will be a major challenge for them to win this game but something that is not beyond them, they will just have to make the most of their chances when they get it. The Sharks will have their own obstacles to overcome in this game and will rely heavily on the experienced players within their team to control the match and steer them to victory. With the doubt around the Sea Eagles against quality teams in the competition, the Sharks are tough to overlook. As for the margin in this game, their past 2 wins over the Sea Eagles have been by an average of 5.5 points. With the Sharks playing squad already under fatigue, they may just struggle to get a large margin over their opponents. However if they are to win, they should cover the line in what should be a very tough and bruising contest over 80 minutes.
Suggested Bet
Sharks -3.5 @ $1.85
Good luck!
Scooby
