After 200 matches, 30 000 plus minutes of rugby league and countless controversial issues arising throughout the season, we have finally reached the Grand Final. It is a spectacle that has the ability to surprise the fans on any occasion, let alone a contest that is as close as this one is appearing to be. It wasn’t the “dream” final that everyone was talking about since the middle of the season, although it is pretty close to it. The minor Premiership winners, the Sydney Roosters will be aiming to go one better in this match as they tackle the tough and fierce Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles. Just when you thought that the script was going to plan, the Sea Eagles displayed outstanding determination and guts to fight back against the Rabbitohs and expose their weaknesses. This was all established on the back of some gritty efforts by their forwards in the middle of the field, play that was able to bring them closer to victory. Not too many people expected that to happen and full credit must go to the boys from Manly for their display. It will not get any easier for them though, as the Roosters head into this match on the back of an ideal 3-game winning streak. Since they beat their bitter rivals, the Rabbitohs in Round 26, they have not looked back. Displaying impressive passages of football along the way, the Roosters overpowered the Knights to book themselves a spot in the decider while sounding a loud message that they are ready to fire. These two sides have enjoyed three “rough” contests this year and it was the 4-nil victory by the Roosters in Week 1 of the Finals that had the fans touting that game as one of the best in a long time. Just thinking back to that match and the physical demands placed on the bodies of the players will salivate any rugby league pundit, regardless of who they support. These two sides find themselves in the position that every team aspires to be in at the end of the season, where they will also want to make the most of the opportunity they have created for themselves. The tension is building as the days are counted down and come 7:15pm on Sunday night, all eyes will be on ANZ Stadium to see which team is able to prevail and be crowned the 2013 NRL Premiers.

Sydney Roosters

The biggest issue for the Roosters this week is trying to decide whether or not to risk players that are under an injury cloud going into this match. The two players in question are “Dally M Second Rower of the Year” Boyd Cordner and the journeyman, Luke O’Donnell. Both are sure to bring a different dimension to this lineup but they will be wary of carrying a player that may not be at the peak of his fitness. In saying that, both players have declared themselves fit and ready to go for this game. Their coach Trent Robinson has a very tough decision on his hands and it will perhaps be even tougher giving a player the “tap on the shoulder” informing them they will miss this match. The team that was originally named is exactly the same as the one that took the field last week and one that will be high on confidence following their performance against the Knights. A lot of credit has come the way of their halves but Jake Friend is steering the ship very well from the ruck. He is one of the main contributors to this teams success and his presence in the middle of the field is driving the Roosters forwards continually over the advantage line. Look for him to be an outside chance of grabbing the Clive Churchill Medal if the Roosters victorious. Another man that enters this calculation is Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, who will be coming up against his former team, while leading from the front with his bustling runs. They have a few weakness in their team that the Sea Eagles could exploit and their right hand side will find plenty of traffic coming the way of Shaun Kenny-Dowall. Expect one of the Roosters second rowers to be doing majority of the tackling, while his “rushing” off the line may create several try scoring opportunities.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

There is just the one change for the Sea Eagles this week and that occurs on the bench. Richie Fa’aoso has unfortunately suffered a broken neck and will be forced to watch this one from the sidelines. There was some debate on who would come into the team as his replacement but unlike their opponents, they have made it clear that David Gower will take the field at some stage in jersey 14. Sea Eagles coach Geoff Toovey has chosen to name and extended bench just in case there is a late withdrawal, however it is highly likely that James Hasson and Peta Hiku will feature in this match. Just like the Roosters, the performance of their halves is extremely important to their success in this game but if the forwards fail to set a solid platform early, it could prove to be a very difficult night for them. Do not be surprised if either DCE or Kieran Foran wins the CCM if they prevail. The Sea Eagles strength lies within their “big-match” experience; an asset that could prove valuable if the game is close in the closing minutes. It will be very difficult for the Roosters to try and find a way to break apart this team but their bench could provide a chance to do that. Their depth is stretched to say the least and this has forced Toovey to take a chance on a few players that would not normally be in the team. If the intensity is high early on, he may be forced to call upon these players earlier than he would like, thus reducing the impact of the stars within their side. Full credit must go to this Manly team and how they have performed this season when others had little expectations of them. Despite only losing narrowly to the Roosters in Week 1 of the Finals, they would’ve learned a valuable lesson from that match and take confidence from their defensive efforts. They also have Brett Stewart back into their team in this game, who is one player that has the chance to affect a game with a single touch of the ball.

Recent History

Overall = Roosters 42 Draw 2 Sea Eagles 79

Last 5 games = Roosters 3 Sea Eagles 2

At ANZ Stadium = Never played at the venue

Stats that matter

**SEASON AVERAGES**

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $1.67 Sea Eagles $2.25
Centrebet = Roosters $1.68 Sea Eagles $2.25
Sportsbet = Roosters $1.70 Sea Eagles $2.20
Betfair = Roosters $1.70 Sea Eagles $2.40

Clive Churchill Medal

In such a big game, there is always going to be interest around MOM betting. This is a very tricky market area that will eventually come down to the opinion of a few individuals. It generally can be a controversial decision and you only have to cast your minds back to the players that received the honor during the SOO series. I believe there are only a few genuine chances of taking out this award, based on what either side has to do in order to win the match. Below, I have listed a few selections for both sides to allow you to settle on one which you believe will be named from the winning team.

Sydney Roosters = Jake Friend ($13), Jared Waerea-Hargreaves ($18) and James Maloney ($8). Tip: Friend

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles = DCE ($7), Kieran Foran ($13) and Glenn Stewart ($16) Tip: Foran

Verdict

It is no surprise to see the Roosters favorites in this match, although I believe that the two sides are much closer than the odds suggest. Without taking anything away from the Roosters, Manly are a team that knows how to win the games that matter most. Majority of the players within their team have been in this situation before, both suffering success and defeat. They will have learned a valuable lesson from their loss in Week 1 of the Finals to the Roosters and they will be ready for anything that their opponents are ready to throw at them. It is very difficult to look past them, but in saying that, the Roosters have done little to suggest that they are going to be unable to win here. In the same sense that Manly will be confident from their previous meeting; so too will the Roosters. Possessing majority of their strength within their forwards, they arguably have a better team on paper in terms of strength and size. Manly are down on players in the front row position and the Roosters big men will look to assert their dominance over their opponents in this area. I have said it throughout this preview, the team that wins the battle in the middle of the field will be in the best position to win this match; largely due to the fact that their halves will be able to control the match. This is one area where a rather large question mark hangs over the head of the Roosters. At times, their kicking game can be questionable and their attack will lack potency when they are “too close” to the opposition line. If they can overcome this and continually build pressure on their opponents, it should be no issue. In saying that, I believe that this is too big of a risk to rely upon. While the Roosters will be tough to overcome, I am tipping that this talented Manly side has what it takes to cause an upset. They have proven their worth throughout the season and worked very hard to get to this point. The draw hasn’t been kind for them and neither has player availability; all of which they have been able to overcome. I expect this match to be extremely close, reminiscent of their previous meetings. We are in for one hell of a battle that will go down to the wire, with the more experienced Manly side prevailing at the sound of the final whistle.

Suggested Bet

Sea Eagles @ $2.40

Gotta Tri this one = Either team under 6.5 points (Tri bet) @ $2.60 – As stated above, this game is going to be a very close contest and if you still cannot make up your mind, then consider this option. There was only 4 points in their last contest and only 6 in Round 16. Such is the defensive ability of both teams; it would be surprising to see the margin get beyond a converted try.

Target the weak links = Daniel Tupou FTS and/or Jorge Taufua FTS @ $11 – Both players will be coming up against opponents that have a lot to answer for in defence. Tupou will face off against David Williams and Taufua will be on the same side as Shaun Kenny-Dowall. Both options are likely and if you had to select one player from either side, the two left-wingers are the men that I would recommend above all else.

Good luck!
Scooby