And then there were 4! Teams are now only one win away from a spot in the Grand Final and the chance to take out the Premiership. Just when you thought that everything was going to plan, the Roosters blood test scandal has been brought to light and again, the rugby league world is thrown into chaos. There is still a lot of water to pass under this bridge yet and hopefully, this news does not overshadow the spectacle that is about to unfold. We can only judge on the information that we know and similar to the situation involving the Sharks, teams will want to let their actions on the field do the talking. It is an ideal situation for the NRL, 3 teams from Sydney and all 4 are from NSW. The Knights are flying the flag for the clubs that reside outside of Sydney and for the first time in a long time, we have a chance at witnessing an all-Sydney Grand Final.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
The first of the Grand Final qualifiers will kick off on Friday night at 7:45pm at ANZ Stadium. It has been a much-needed week off for the boys from Redfern and that is certainly going to enhance their chances of winning this game. As for their opponents, they have played in two very tough and physical games since the Finals began and it is evident the toll it is taking on their bodies. They were very lucky that the game finished when it did last week because the Sharks had all the momentum in the closing minutes of that match. You get the sense that Manly are just holding their side together, hoping that the 17 players that take the field are able to get them through each match without any injury worries. They are wounded, but you always have to be wary of them. They are a team that knows how to win at this stage of the season and will be pushing hard to overthrow their more fancied opponents. The Rabbitohs will be high on confidence after beating the Storm in Week 1 of the Finals, a feat that has appeared to be beyond them in recent seasons. They will be the first to tell you though, while that performance was great, the job for them is not completely done. They have their eyes firmly focused on the “bigger picture” and a victory in this match moves them one step closer to their ultimate goal of Premiership glory. Regardless of the fitness of either side, this match is promising to be a fantastic encounter. Both times these sides faced off this season saw the spoils go to the Rabbitohs but the Sea Eagles were not far away. They play a very physical brand of football that will be exemplified throughout this encounter. One team will progress, while the other will be thrown to the side without a second thought. Let the penultimate week of the NRL begin!
South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs had a clear game plan in their last match that was aimed at being stronger up front, to counter their opponent’s potency in the forwards. They have gone with the same again here and the final makeup of the team suggests that coach Michael Maguire will wait for the heat of the match to subside before injecting his smaller, yet more mobile players into the match. Normally featuring in the front row, Jeff Lima has been named at lock, while Sam Burgess has pushed up to the second row and Chris McQueen has moved back to the extended bench. In the front row, Luke Burgess will partner Dave Tyrrell, forcing Roy Asotasi back to the interchange. Along with Asotasi and McQueen, Maguire has named Jason Clark and George Burgess, with Ben Lowe (18th), Luke Keary (19th) and Matt King (20th) added just in case there is a late withdrawal. In saying all of this, do not be surprised if there is a late curve ball thrown with the naming of this team. Maguire has left his options open for a late change, but it is crystal clear that they will try to outmuscle the Sea Eagles in the middle of their field and create extra room for their halves and outside backs.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles have chosen to name the same team that tackled the Sharks last week but of course, there was the late omission of Brett Stewart that opened up the opportunity for Peta Hiku to come into the team. Stewart is named again and is a greater chance of playing here. Just incase though, Hiku has been added to the team in jersey 19. Along with Hiku, James Hasson (19th) and David Gower (20th) are listed on the extended bench, but are expected to miss out. In saying that, Anthony Watmough appeared to pick up a very serious ankle injury in their win over the Sharks, but he was able to retake the field, albeit against the advice of the Sea Eagles medical team. He has been under a few different injury clouds this year and with his toughness, you would expect to see him feature again here. It will be interesting to see just how coach Geoff Toovey uses his bench this week and how he plans to counter the Rabbitohs pack. Tom Symonds has had limited minutes on the field during the Finals but his defensive skills, along with George Rose’s dynamic runs, may just be what they need.
Recent History
Overall = Rabbitohs 59 Sea Eagles 71
Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 2 Sea Eagles 2
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 2 Sea Eagles 3
Stats that matter
**SEASON AVERAGES**
| Roosters | Knights | |
| Completion Rate | 73.2 (7th) | 75.6% (2nd) |
| Errors | 10.5 (6th) | 10.0 (2nd) |
| Metres per carry | 9.17m (1st) | 9.08m (4th) |
| Line breaks | 5.9 (1st) | 4.2 (10th) |
| Missed tackles | 21.4 (1st) | 28.0 (7th) |
| Penalties | 8.3 (16th) | 5.9 (2nd) |
| For | 26.8 (1st) | 22.5 (5th) |
| Against | 13.6 (1st) | 17.5 (5th) |
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.40 Sea Eagles $3.00
Centrebet = Rabbitohs $1.42 Sea Eagles $2.95
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.40 Sea Eagles $3.05
Betfair = Rabbitohs $1.45 Sea Eagles $3.10
Verdict
There is a reason that the Rabbitohs are favorites in this match. They are the fitter, stronger and bigger team that appears to have the Sea Eagles covered in majority of areas. However the one underlying issue for them and the only area where the Sea Eagles dominate them, is within the halves. These 4 players appear as though they are going to have the biggest say in the outcome of this match, although it may not be that simple. For the Sea Eagles to dominate this facet of the game, they will need their forwards to first win the battle up front. If they are unable to do that, the effectiveness of Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry- Evans will be limited. Adam Reynolds and John Sutton have benefitted all season from the potency of their big men. This game is going to be no different and it is clear the tactics that the Rabbitohs are aiming to implement. It was always going to be a big hurdle for them to move past in their last game against the Storm and Sutton really rose to the challenge. To a lesser extent so did Reynolds, but he was unable to solidly assert his dominance. The Sea Eagles will look to expose this area of the game but at the end of the day, the Rabbitohs should be too strong. Despite progressing to the decider, it will be a very close contest throughout and the Rabbitohs may only pull away towards the end of this match.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.95
Off to a flyer = Rabbitohs Try (first scoring play) @ $1.72 – In the big games this season, the Rabbitohs have generally began the game on the right foot and been the first team to lodge points. This game should be no different and the home fans will be willing their team over the line with any attacking opportunity.
Walking the line = Dylan Walker FTS and/or LTS @ $13.00 – Towards the end of the season, the Sea Eagles left hand side have looked vulnerable in defence. Usually, this is due to Steve Matai racing up out of the line and the young buck in Dylan Walker may just have the pace to get around his opponent to cross the line first.
Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights
The second Grand Final qualifier suitably remains in Sydney, although this time is will take place in closer to the centre of town as the Sydney Roosters host the Newcastle Knights at Allianz Stadium. It was only a few weeks ago that the Knights were struggling for consistency and were failing to prove themselves worthy of a spot in the Finals. That has been the story of their season but as I have suggested throughout the year, once they find their groove, they are going to be hard to stop. The last two weeks have been kind to them, as they have knocked over the Bulldogs and the Storm. The first victory was somewhat expected but the accomplishment of beating Melbourne last week on their home turf was a surprise. You were always going to have to be wary of this team, especially considering the experience from both the players and coach that they posses within their team. Wayne Bennett has proven himself over the years and despite the age of his team, he has finally found the formula to make them click. Down in Sydney, the Roosters enjoyed a week off after beating the Sea Eagles in Week 1 of the Finals. It was a brutally physical contest and the Sea Eagles were prepared for a battle. The Roosters prevailed 4-0 in one of the lowest scoring Finals matches in history. That win allowed them to enjoy a week off and perhaps a week out of the spotlight. That was all until the news broke about the apparent use of a HGH in a supplement they had been given. While it will probably not destabilize their campaign at this stage of the season, it is a distraction that they could do without. This week should be all about the action on the field rather than the drama off it. On the other hand, it could act as a catalyst to bring this team closer together and reassure them that they are in this right until the end. They finished the season as Minor Premiers for a reason and the task of facing a Newcastle team that is high on confidence will not deter them. We could be in for another thrilling contest that we saw only a few weeks ago, but that will work in favor of both teams. We are going to see if the Roosters have been able to benefit from the week off or whether or not the Knights can continue on their late season charge.
Sydney Roosters
The Roosters are forced to change their team this week and while again changing, it is positive to the strength of their team. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has served his one-match suspension for a wayward elbow and returns to the team to start in the front row. Martin Kennedy was the man that was called into the team to replace JWH against Manly and this inclusion has forced him back to 19th man. In the second row, Aidan Guerra is named to partner SBW, while Mitchell Aubusson is relegated back to the bench. Luke O’Donnell is also named in the starting 17, albeit at the expense of Dylan Napa who has proven himself a future star. This may just forced coach Trent Robinson to take a gamble on this talented youngster and make him a late inclusion in the side. If he does, it could be at the expense of Daniel Mortimer who has played a solid role as a utility off the bench but his departure will add extra force to the Roosters forwards, against an experience opponent.
Newcastle Knights
The Knights are unchanged from last week and this dynamic has been carried for several weeks for them now. It is a simple formula that relies upon their strong defence, along with a platform set up front by their forwards. This extra room has allowed their young halves to ply their trade. Jarrod Mullen has risen to the challenge and reminded many people that he is still the quality player that featured in Origin as a rookie in his 20s. He is growing each week as an individual and it is impressive to see him drive his side around the field. He is well supported by the younger Tyrone Roberts, who himself has surprised plenty of people out there. Do not be surprised in Bennett springs a late surprise within this side and you can be sure that Craig Gower will be given every chance to fill the utility role off the bench, despite the apparent news around his injury. Newcastle will not listen to the doubters about their age, they are simply going out there each week with purpose.
Recent History
Overall = Roosters 23 Draw 2 Knights 18
Last 5 games = Roosters 3 Knights 2
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 11 Knights 6
Stats that matter
**SEASON AVERAGES**
| Roosters | Knights | |
| Completion Rate | 73.2 (7th) | 75.6% (2nd) |
| Errors | 10.5 (6th) | 10.0 (2nd) |
| Metres per carry | 9.17m (1st) | 9.08m (4th) |
| Line breaks | 5.9 (1st) | 4.2 (10th) |
| Missed tackles | 21.4 (1st) | 28.0 (7th) |
| Penalties | 8.3 (16th) | 5.9 (2nd) |
| For | 26.8 (1st) | 22.5 (5th) |
| Against | 13.6 (1st) | 17.5 (5th) |
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $1.30 Knights $3.60
Centrebet = Roosters $1.30 Knights $3.65
Sportsbet = Roosters $1.35 Knights $3.30
Betfair = Roosters $1.35 Knights $3.80
Verdict
Regardless of what is taking place off the field, the stars are aligning for the Roosters in this match. On paper, they appear to have the Knights covered in all areas. On the other hand, what cannot be measured on paper is the momentum that the Knights carry at this point of the season. Some would suggest that a week off could harm the Roosters as the Knights will be fresh from a very difficult match against the Storm. This is a possibility and if anything, it will make the Roosters a little slow out of the blocks, but they should be able to eventually find their groove. The biggest test for the Roosters will come in how their halves execute their game plan. Sure, they were away from their best during the Origin series, but they have also proved on several occasions that this is a completely different game and a combination within a team setting that they have been working on since November last year. Similarly, the Knights halves are in for an acid test and the Roosters are set to send plenty of traffic their way early. I am going to stick with them to get a victory here but it will be a very close match. The odds are not a true reflection of just how tight this match will be. The boys from Bondi will be forced to grind out a very tough victory and I recommend shaping your bets around this outcome. I think we could be heading for the “ideal” Sydney Grand Final!
Suggested Bet
Knights +8.5 @ $1.90
Roosters 1-12 @ $2.90 – The suitable margin in this game appears to be a close one. This is finals football and we are going to both teams tighten up in defence. A 13+ margin does seem unlikely and with the Roosters expected to win, this bet seems like a very enticing option.
Sway either way = Either team under 6.5 points (Tri Bet) @ $3.02 – As stated above, this game is going to be a very tight contest, a lot tighter than most think. The Roosters have proven themselves very difficult to break down in attack, but so to have the Knights. They will be ready for a defensive arm wrestle and that should keep this game very close.
Good luck!
Scooby
