The NRL competition now moves into Week 2 of the Finals and while being filled with plenty of controversy, the games on the weekend couldn’t be more exciting. The size of the competition is now reduced as the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs and the North Queensland Cowboys were bundled out of the competition without a second thought. Only 6 teams now remain and while 2 games take place over Friday and Saturday, the Rabbitohs and Roosters will be sitting back and watching with interest, as their potential opponents bash, bruise and try to fight their way towards victory. It is now elimination time for all clubs and no more chances are going to be given out. Unfortunately, the standard of refereeing has not been up to a suitable level this season and it all came to a very ugly head as the Sharks were awarded a try off the 7th tackle. The fallout and criticism of that issue has been endless but fans need to realise that what is done, is done and complaining about it isn’t going to change the outcome of the match. As far as the comments from the Cowboys go about a conspiracy, they are certainly unwarranted and they should not go unpunished. As for the actual decision, the ball is now in the NRL’s court to deal within and ensure that integrity is returned to the game. For now, we have two very exciting games and 3 more weeks of quality rugby league to focus on.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Cronulla Sharks
The first of the weekend’s games is a Sydney-derby between the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles and the Cronulla Sharks. It is a battle of the beaches and following the performances of both sides in Week 1 of the Finals; the Sea Eagles will head into this game as strong favorites. For an outsider, that would seem puzzling considering the Sharks are the team that is coming off a win and the Sea Eagles suffered a loss. However it was the performance of both sides that has shaped this thought pattern. Viewing the two separate parts of the Top 8 in a double header gave a clear indication of the gulf in class this season between the top 4 and bottom 4 teams. In their win, the Sharks were still loose in defence and unable to consistently capitalise on their opponent’s fragilities. Had they put the Cowboys away with the chances they had, perhaps the fallout from the “7th tackle” wouldn’t have been so large. The job for them will only become more difficult with their squad appearing to be struggling for full fitness but that will not shirk the remaining players in their squad away from their job. They still know what has to be done and are certain to build their game around a tough and resolute defence. That will be nothing new for their opponents, who were part of one of the toughest defensive displays we have seen in a Finals match in recent seasons. There was only one try scored in the entire match and despite being held to nil, the Sea Eagles will know that they are not far away from the top teams in this competition. It also showed that despite the talk about their own fitness issues, they are going to be a difficult team to overcome. They play a brutal brand of football that requires their opponents to match it if they are to steal a win away. Forget about their players not recovering in time for this game, it was exactly the contest that they thrive on. This match is promising to be the same and the quality of rugby league on display will compensate for just the two matches this weekend.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles have named an unchanged team from last week, although the team that took the field in that match was vastly different to the one that was named. Brett Stewart was a late withdrawal from that match with a hamstring injury and despite being named again; he is expected to find it difficult to be fit in time. If this is the case, Peta Hiku will be recalled to the team and following his MOM efforts last week, he will be a solid inclusion. Richie Fa’aoso is also in doubt, after he was knocked out when attempting a tackle. It was a sickening incident and hopefully the Sea Eagles express a duty of care towards their player. Also named are James Hasson (20th) and David Gower (21st), in case there is a change of heart in regards to Fa’aoso or one of the other players is in doubt, they will be called into the team. It was a very tough contest last week and while they do have a few players under injury clouds, the game was a solid test and their players have since commented of how well they coped with the match.
Cronulla Sharks
Just when the Sharks do not need any injury worries, they strike. The doubt this week again circles around Todd Carney and Andrew Fifita, with the Sharks taking the extreme lengths of ruling Carney out in the team that they have named. No doubt the Sharks will give Carney every chance of taking the field in this game but their coach Shane Flanagan has clearly stated they will no risk him in this match unless he proves that he is 100% fit. Luke Lewis has been named as his replacement in jersey 6 and the new face in the second row is Jayson Bukuya. This has opened up a spot on the bench and Bryce Gibbs has been given a start. As for Fifita, he is expected to play this match but was a long way from his best against the Cowboys. Just in case he is ruled out, Ben Ross has been listed as the 18th man for this game. Many people will doubt where the Sharks attack will come from but they may just rely on their defence to get them through this game. Players like Michael Gordon and Jeff Robson will have their work cut out for them trying to fill Carneys void.
Recent History
Overall =Sea Eagles 56 Draw 2 Sharks 23
Last 5 games =Sea Eagles 4 Sharks 1
At Allianz Stadium = Sea Eagles 2 Sharks 0
Stats that matter
**SEASON AVERAGES**
| Sea Eagles | Sharks | |
| Completion Rate | 73.8% (6th) | 70.6 (13th) |
| Errors | 10.1 (3rd) | 11.8 (16th) |
| Metres per carry | 8.99 (8th) | 9.08m (3rd) |
| Line breaks | 5.2 (2nd) | 3.3 (16th) |
| Missed tackles | 27.7 (7th) | 27.1 (6th) |
| Penalties conceded | 7.7 (15th) | 6.0 (4th) |
| For | 24.4 (4th) | 19.5 (11th) |
| Against | 14.3 (2nd) | 19.2 (7th) |
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.26 Sharks $4.00
Centrebet = Sea Eagles $1.30 Sharks $3.65
Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.30 Sharks $3.65
Betfair= Sea Eagles $1.31 Sharks $4.10
Verdict
The stars are aligning for the Sea Eagles in this match and majority of this unfairly revolves around the fitness of the Sharks squad. The omission of Carney is a big loss for them but it does not mean that they are completely out of this contest. It will undoubtedly mean that points are harder to come by but moving Lewis to fill his void only strengthens their defensive line. They have proven all season that they are a tough side to beat and have an uncanny knack of playing to their opponents level. If they are to reach the heights of the Sea Eagles, we are in for one hell of a contest. They have a winning formula within their side that breed’s success. It didn’t go according to plan for them last week but that should only make them hungrier here. The stubborn Sharks defence will not worry them too much; they faced the best team in the competition last week and walked off the field with their heads held high. Their attack will be able to put points past them and the job will eventually fall down to the Sharks sticking with their opponents. This match will be hotly contested throughout and could come down to the last 10 minutes of the match. All things considered, I like the Sea Eagles to grab a win based on the fact that they have a great attacking potential to compliment their rugged defence. It will be a close match though and the fatigue that the Sea Eagles are feeling from their last match should open up several opportunities for the Sharks.
Suggested Bet
Sharks +9.5 @ $2
Soaring to victory = Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.80 – It is surprising to see the Sea Eagles favored so much to win this contest easily. I believe they will win but the Sharks should be able to stick close to them. Only one game last week went over the 13+ margin and the intensity of this match is only enhancing the closeness of this game.
Roaring Lyon = Jamie Lyon FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Apart from not scoring a single point last week as a team, Lyon has scored the first try twice in the Sea Eagles past four matches. He will again benefit from his young halves ball movement and playing on the right edge will give him the opportunity to expose Jonathan Wright.
Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights
The second elimination semi final this weekend occurs on Saturday night and it is a blessing for the NRL that there will not be a game of AFL taking place in the city. Of course, that will not always ensure a bumper crowd but there should be plenty support for the home side as the Melbourne Storm tackle the Newcastle Knights. With the attention of the rugby league world elsewhere this week, the focus on this game has been minimal. That is a shame because when you take a deeper look at it, it could be considered the game of the round. Sure, the Storm triumphed twice this year over their opponents but it will be the performance of the Knights last time they took the trip down south that will have their fans confident of causing an upset. Last week, they were terrific against the Bulldogs and were finally able to wrestle control away from them towards the end of the game. In saying that, they always appeared to be in control of that contest and the 13+ winning margin was a fair indication of how well they played. The Bulldogs were not at their best, but that can be attributed to the Knights and the game plan they executed. As for the Storm, they were beaten by a desperate Rabbitohs team that sensed there was much more than a berth in a Grand Final Qualifier on the line. They stepped up to the plate big time, especially considering their poor run against the Storm in recent years. The Knights will be aiming to do the same here and you only need to scroll down to see how poor they have been against the reigning Premiers. Not only that, they have a very experienced team that is difficult to overcome on any occasion, let alone a Finals match. You only need to look as far as the “Big 3”, although the rest of the players are just as imperative to their achievements. Aside from the players, the two coaches involved will notably have a large impact on this result. Just like last week, super coach Bennett will face an opponent that is canny, unwavering and will bring the best out of his players for this challenge. It has been a long campaign for everyone at the Storm but they will be trying to extend it longer in this match. Bellamy will be firmly motivating his troops to push their weary bodies and overthrow a determined and confident Newcastle team that can smell success.
Melbourne Storm
The Storm left Sydney battered and bruised last week but they will take some confidence away from that game and their own performance. The key indication of this is the naming of the same team that took the field in that game. There was one late change for that contest; Gareth Widdop came into the side for the injured Brett Finch. He has not been completely ruled out though, included on the bench as 18th man. There was also the terrible image of Sisa Waqa hitting the ground after a cross-field kick but despite being stretched off, he is expected to play this game. Along with Waqa, it is amazing that Widdop is able to take the field after the injury he suffered earlier this season. He is a vital part of their success and the match last week is going to serve him well in terms of fitness. The “Big 3” were ineffective during certain points of last week and they will need their forwards to lift to another level, continually throughout this match. If they don’t, the pressure will build on their playmakers, forcing them into simple mistakes and turning over possession.
Newcastle Knights
Just like the Storm, the Knights have chosen to name the same team. However they will be taking the field under different circumstances. They are a side that thrives on confidence and their efforts over the Bulldogs will only allow them to grow in stature. They have worried little about the apparent concern over the age of their squad and they are allowing their ability to do the talking. Part of their success has to be attributed to their young and dynamic halves, Jarrod Mullen and Tyrone Roberts, who have complimented the Newcastle side with excellent kicks at the end of their attacking sets. The same will be needed here but their forwards need to also lift to disrupt the Storms momentum. There is some word around that Craig Gower could make an unexpected return from injury, but given he underwent a neck operation 10-days ago, it seems unlikely that he will be named to replace Matt Hilder.
Recent History
Overall =Storm 18 Knights 12
Last 5 games =Storm 5 Knights 0
At AAMI Stadium = Storm 5 Knights 0
Stats that matter
**SEASON AVERAGES**
| Storm | Knights | |
| Completion Rate | 74.9% (3rd) | 75.6% (2nd) |
| Errors | 10.2 (4th) | 10.0 (2nd) |
| Metres per carry | 9.05 (7th) | 9.08m (4th) |
| Line breaks | 4.8 (4th) | 4.2 (10th) |
| Missed tackles | 25.8 (5th) | 28.0 (7th) |
| Penalties conceded | 6.2 (8th) | 5.9 (2nd) |
| For | 24.5 (=2nd) | 22.5 (5th) |
| Against | 15.5 (3rd) | 17.5 (5th) |
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.35 Knights $3.25
Centrebet = Storm $1.38 Knights $3.15
Sportsbet = Storm $1.38 Knights $3.10
Betfair= Storm $1.39 Knights $3.50
Verdict
If standing on the competition ladder and performance this season is anything to go by, then the Storm should be able to handle their opponents in this contest. However this is Finals football and it is a different set of circumstances altogether. Every statistic possible has been revealed this week to suggest that the Knights will struggle to gain the upper hand in this game but the Knights are playing with renewed confidence in their own abilities. Don’t think that I am suggesting the Knights are going to win this match, I believe the better selection is the Storm but the Knights will keep this game competitive. Much like the other match this weekend, the favorite heading into the match is doing so in losing form. In saying that, they finished in the top end of the competition and I am expecting them to show the Knights what it takes to be a genuine contender this season. Playing away from Newcastle has also been an issue from them and it will take a lot to change that. The form around their efforts against the Bulldogs isn’t a clear indication of their current capabilities as they too, have not enjoyed a consistent season and were off the mark last week. On the other hand, the Storm were solid against a superior opponent and much like the Sea Eagles, they will be out to rectify their efforts last week. You can be assured that this match will be close and it could even come down to the last play of the game before the ultimate outcome is revealed.
Suggested Bet
Knights +8.5 @ $1.80
Stormy victory = Storm 1-12 @ $2.75 – This match is going to be a very close contest and while I am expecting the Storm to win, it should be tough. It would be extremely surprising to see them win this match 13+ and the Knights defence will be out to limit their attacking potential in each set.
Billy the Kid = Billy Slater FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – Slater is undoubtedly one of the best fullbacks this game has been but it is his performance in recent weeks that has him a chance here. In the last two games, he has scored the opening try for the Storm and he has the ability to pop up anywhere on the field and could surprise the Knights defensive line.
Good luck!
Scooby
