Sea Eagles (2nd) v Rabbitohs (3rd)
The Sea Eagles lost the chance last week to grab the Minor Premiership, slipping down to second spot on the ladder in the process. The loss came at the hands of the Cowboys on the road, however they were horribly understrength. Injuries are striking at the wrong point of the season, to the point where their forwards are depleted in key areas. They are boosted this week by the return of notable players and they will need all hands on deck to compete with the Rabbitohs, a team that has plenty of potential. They too were losers in Round 26, going down to rivals the Roosters. They were outplayed in majority of areas for the first 60 minutes of that match, only to close the gap late with late tries. The score line flattered them to some degree and by their own admission; they will need to lift to another level. The Rabbitohs strength will lie within the forwards and creating a platform early. This match will also feature two exciting halves pairings that will bring different qualities to the game. Who ever can gain control of the match will have the greatest chance of winning this contest.
Team News
Sea Eagles = Brett Stewart is back at lock and Brenton Lawrence is also named at prop to start. Jason King and Clinton Gutherson shift back to the bench.
Rabbitohs = Adam Reynolds is back from suspension and named at halfback, with Luke Keary moves back to 5/8 and John Sutton is into the second row. Chris McQueen shifts back to the bench, which features 7 players.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles 73 Rabbitohs 60
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 2 Rabbitohs 3
At Allianz Stadium = Sea Eagles 8 Rabbitohs 3
Verdict
The Sea Eagles looked to be in a lot of trouble last week, suffering a poor defeat to the Cowboys. In that match, they were outplayed on both sides of the ball and offered little hope running into the Finals. Luckily they are boosted by the return of several players. The same can be said for the Rabbitohs, although their finish to the match was encouraging. The fact that they have beaten the Sea Eagles twice this year will boost their confidence. It is hard to go past them for victory, as the Sea Eagles will struggle to match the firepower within the Rabbitohs forwards, as well as nullify the impact of Isaac Luke out of hooker. That will have a positive effect on the halves, creating greater room for them to work off and making the forward’s job easier. It will be close though, being underrated is the type of match that the Sea Eagles flourish in.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.90
Slow starters = Sea Eagles TRY first scoring play @ $2.50 – For one reason or another, the Rabbitohs have failed to post the first point in their past 5 matches. In the same period, the Sea Eagles have scored first and will be out to build early pressure on their opponents.
Roosters (1st) v Panthers (4th)
The Roosters overcame the Rabbitohs at home last week, winning the Minor Premiership for the second consecutive season and having home ground advantage for this match. They were dominating over the Rabbits, leaving them little opportunity to control the match. Their halves were especially dominating, ensuring that the sets were completed strongly, while also building pressure. The Panthers turned in another promising 80 minutes, this time proving several people wrong to beat the Warriors. Many thought that with a spot in the Finals on the line, the Warriors would be too strong for a Panthers team that does not have all their players at their disposal. Again, they were dominant in the middle of the field, while Jamie Soward had his fingerprints all over the victory. The challenge for them will be to replicate that effort against a team that was too strong for them back in Round 19.
Team News
Roosters = Dylan Napa was unsuccessful in his case, but did have it downgraded, although he is still out. Sam Moa is back into the starting side, while Isaac Liu replaces the suspended Aidan Guerra at lock. Kane Evans and Heath L’Estrange are added to the bench.
Panthers = Jeremy Latimore is named on the bench, along with David Simmons at 18th man.
History
Overall = Roosters 51 Draw 1 Panthers 30
Last 5 matches = Roosters 3 Panthers 2
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 11 Panthers 7
Verdict
Each week the Panthers continue to surprise with their efforts. Recently, they have overcome injuries and have looked dangerous with the style of football that they play. Unfortunately, their run of luck is going to come to an end in this match. The Roosters are too strong and are peaking in their performances at the right stage of the season. Last week against the Rabbioths, they produced a flawless 60 minutes. The Panthers will struggle to weather this under any circumstances and will need to play consistently over 80 minutes. This should ensure that the margin of victory is kept close and after all, this is Finals football where teams are less likely to chance their hand with possession.
Suggested Bet
Roosters 1-12 @ $2.90
Cowboys (5th) v Broncos (8th)
The Cowboys proved their worth last week at home, by capturing a win over the Sea Eagles. They have stepped up a gear in the second half of the season, rocketing into 5th on the ladder and grabbing home field advantage in the first elimination match. Jonathan Thurston has been dominant force behind their rise, singlehandedly turning matches and placing the Cowboys into winning opportunities. Pressure will grow on him though and now is the time for the rest of the team to lift and support their captain. The Broncos can consider themselves fortunate to be in this position, after losing to the Storm last week they had to rely on other results to go their way. Fortunately they did and will fancy their chances against their Queensland rival. With the potential within their team, it is surprising to see them sitting on the fringe of the Top 8. However it is a new ball game now, although on their 2014 form, they will need to play faultless football if they are a chance at survival.
Team News
Cowboys = Unchanged.
Broncos = Sam Thaiday is back from suspension and is named at lock. Corey Parker shifts to the front row and Ben Hannant moves back to the bench. Corey Oates is named in the centres as Jack Reed is out through injury.
History
Overall = Cowboys 9 Draw 2 Broncos 27
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 2 Broncos 3
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 5 Draw 1 Broncos 15
Verdict
Arguably, this is the hardest match of the weekend to select. The Broncos overall record against the Cowboys speaks for itself, mainly as they were dominating in the Cowboys early years in the competition. Now, home ground advantage has become more important than ever, with both teams holding strong in their previous meetings this season. The form of the two sides suggests that the Cowboys are going to be a difficult to overcome, although the Broncos are capable of bringing down their rivals. However the major area they are vulnerable in is in the halves and their inability at times to build pressure. The Cowboys will need to increase the pressure on their opponents here, allowing for their forwards to dominate and extra room created for Thurston. Of all the matches this weekend, this could be the one that is decided by the bounce of a ball or even heads into “golden point” (which the “tri-bet favours), where the Cowboys should be on the right side of the scoreboard and survive for another week. .
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $3
#RidemCowboys = Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.90 – If you believe that this match is not heading for a draw like suggested above, then make the call to go with the Cowboys by this margin. There is still a lot of value in the investment, but it does mean that if the scores are locked at fulltime, you lose your money.
Storm (6th) v Bulldogs (7th)
The Storm assured their position on the table with a commanding victory over the Broncos last week, to the point where they appeared to be back to their best form. The Bulldogs were the complete opposite of that, given up an 18-point lead to the lowly placed Titans. They are unfortunately developing into a team that can only play one half of football. Their record over the Storm this season will buoy their confidence, going 2/2 in matches played. Melbourne were below their best in the first meeting, but had variables working in their favour during the Round 18 encounter. However now, the “Big 3” are appearing more capable and are slowly getting back to their best. Pressure will be on both halves pairings to perform but ultimately, the forwards will have a bigger impact on the result than any other area throughout this match.
Team News
Storm = Bryan Norries and Jordan McLean swap roles, as Norries is named to start the match. Dayne Weston and Justin O’Neill have been added to an extended bench
Bulldogs = Dale Finucane returns on the extended 7-man interchange, as Des Hasler is going to have to make a call on a 3 players to miss out.
History
Overall = Storm 16 Bulldogs 18
Last 5 matches = Storm 2 Bulldogs 3
At AAMI Park = Storm 4 Bulldogs 1
Verdict
The Bulldogs were disappointing in their run home to the Finals, now without a home ground advantage and playing sudden-death football. This is unfamiliar territory for the Storm in the first week of the Finals, but that will not overcome them. Last week against the Broncos, they proved just how they could stick with an opponent and produce a critical play to overcome their opponents when it mattered most. The Bulldogs halves have lacked a dominating effort, relating to the ineffectiveness of their forwards. If they control the middle of the field, the Storm will be pushed to the limit to grab victory. You cannot overlook the 2014 record between these two sides, however you have to remember that the team that is taking the field is vastly different to their previous meetings. This match will be close, but the home ground advantage and form will swing it the way of the Storm.
Suggested Bet
Storm 1-12 @ $2.75
Fijian Flyer = Marika Koroibete FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – His form since moving from the Tigers has been electric. I have been recommending him in recent weeks and after scoring first twice in the past 4 matches, you should be in a winning position to invest. On top of that, the Bulldogs can be vulnerable on the edges as their wingers attempt to cut off a backline movement at the centres.
Good luck!
Scooby
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
