South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

It was the match that had a domino affect for many other areas of the NRL in 2015 and many are looking forwards to the traditional Good Friday showdown between the two sides. The Rabbitohs injury toll grew last week, now without Sam Burgess and pressure is growing following a loss to the Dragons. It was horrendous conditions that saw the Rabbitohs struggle to build pressure and crack their opponents. The Dragons took them on through the middle of the field and they failed to measure up throughout the entire match. Now, they have a short turnaround against the Bulldogs, who themselves are out to bounce back from a flat effort. Their loss to Parramatta left their fans wondering where the Bulldogs attack was going to come from. They had plenty of opportunities to build pressure and create points but were unable to capitalize. Their halves, who were strong in the opening two weeks, were flat and failed to use the platform that the forwards developed. That will dent their confidence somewhat and not too much changes within their team heading into this week. They will need to be up for a competitive match and wear down the weakened Rabbitohs over the 80 minutes.

Team News
Rabbitohs = Sam Burgess (injured) has been replaced at lock by Nathan Brown. Jack Gosiewski and Michael Oldfield have been named on an extended bench, with Gosiewski making his NRL debut if he gets a start.
Bulldogs = Greg Eastwood (injury) returns at lock, forcing Lloyd Perrett to the bench, alongside Adam Elliot (17).

History
Overall = Rabbitohs 10 Draw 1 Bulldogs 19
Last 5 Matches = Rabbitohs 3 Bulldogs 2
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 55% Bulldogs 57%
Form = Rabbitohs 1 loss – Bulldogs 1 loss

Verdict
The Rabbitohs have pressure building on them this week and need a siege-mentality. On top of some major names missing, they are set to be without Burgess; meaning that someone else will have to lead from the front. Fatigue is another issue, with turnaround short following their match on Sunday. All signs point towards the Bulldogs being able to control this match and eventually winning it. Nevertheless, their attack must dramatically improve as they have looked flat for long periods of their past two matches and are offering little in their opponents 20. This needs to change if they are to be a major threat and the Rabbitohs will back their defence in this game to keep them in the contest. It will allow them to be competitive, but only for a certain amount of time before their legs grow heavy and they buckle to the powerful style of the Bulldogs. This has proven difficult for teams to manage in the past and the team backing up from a 5-day turnaround has lost on all but one occasion already in 2016. As for the margin, the Bulldogs will be out to prove that they can offer more in attack. There is no better way to do this than piling the points on their opponents and limiting what they can do with the ball.

Suggested Bet
Bulldogs -4.5 @ $1.90

Howling Dogs = Bulldogs 13+ @ $3.10 – If Burgess doesn’t play, the Rabbitohs may struggle to find momentum in the forwards. Also, as fatigue sets in, they may struggle to match the intensity set by the Bulldogs.

Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland Cowboys

This is the first time the two sides will meet since the 2015 NRL Grand Final where the Cowboys were victorious in extra time. The stage is set for another epic contest, as the Broncos aim to bounce back from an upset by the Panthers. Being up 22-6 at HT lead many to think that the visitors would run away with the contest; however they were unable to score a point in the second half and went down by a FG. Normally, you would have faith that the Broncos defence could defend such a lead but in uncharacteristic fashion, they were beaten through the middle and became complacent. It was more a matter of them losing control of the match rather than their opponents winning it and the Broncos will have their hands full attempting to hold a confident Cowboys team. They delivered as expected against the Roosters last week, piling the points on their opponents while keeping them scoreless. It was a tighter match in the first half, but as the momentum for the home side grew, they clicked into another gear. It would’ve been pleasing for those involved with the club to see them bounce back following a loss in Round 2. Such losses for both Grand Finalists can ease the pressure building on them this early into the season but they will want to avoid making it a habit. This match is expected to deliver a thrilling contest!

Team News
Broncos = Lachlan Maranta (injury) comes onto the wing for Jack Reed (injured), with Jordan Kahu shifting into the centres.
Cowboys = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Broncos 26 Draw 1 Cowboys 12
Last 5 Matches = Broncos 2 Cowboys 3
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 60% Cowboys 40%
Form = Broncos 1 loss – Cowboys 1 win

Verdict
Just like the Grand Final last year, deciding on a winner is appearing very difficult to choose. The Cowboys have plenty of momentum following their victory last week but as we have seen so far in 2016, beating the Roosters are hardly a measure of how well a team is performing; almost luring sides into a false sense of security. The Broncos form is strong, but each week they have had some questions raised about how well they are travelling. The Cowboys will benefit from the extra time to prepare for this match, while the Broncos may have fatigue impact upon their performance. There is no doubt that revenge will be on their minds for last season and rather than making a clear decision on who will win, there is more benefit in backing that this match will be close. Forced to pick a winner, I would side with the Broncos based upon their record at home.

Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.70

Canberra Raiders v Gold Coast Titans

The Raiders head into Round 4 still undefeated in 2016, following a draw with the Knights; the first such result in the NRL in 3 years. For a team that is still missing their first choice halves pairing, they were lucky to escape; although would be disappointed with the way they finished the match. Fatigue got the better of them at the end, as they appeared set to run away with the match at 16-nil after 30 minutes. It wasn’t to be though and a late try brought them level with their opponents; now they return home egger to keep their streak going. The Titans will be a challenge though, as they produced an upset against the high-flying Tigers. They showed plenty of fight in that match to prevail by a comfortable margin, with 2-tries in the last 3 minutes flattering their opponents. At this stage of the season, they are playing a lot better than most people thought they would and things can only get better. They have unearthed a healthy balance within their side, although they are yet to prove themselves against a competition front-runner. The Raiders are not that at this stage, however a win on the road against an undefeated team will go a long way to making fans take notice of what they have to offer this season; while a Raiders win will reaffirm the consistency that they are desperately aiming to produce.

Team News
Raiders = Unchanged.
Titans = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Raiders 7 Titans 10
Last 5 Matches = Raiders 2 Titans 3
At GIO Stadium = Raiders 35% Titans 50%
Form = Raiders 1 draw – Titans 1 win

Verdict
The Raiders were good in parts last week but they can ill-afford to switch off again against the Titans. There is plenty to like about both sides but the deciding factor here is that the Raiders are without their first-choice halves. If they were present, there would be little hesitation siding with them. However since they have been out and despite being undefeated, they have struggled for direction around the field. The Titans showed last week that they are able to compete with most sides if they have the right balance and there was plenty to like about their loss against Melbourne too. They also have a superior record when playing the Raiders and do not appear phased by the trip south to the nations capital. There is bound to be plenty of points scored in this match too; with the Titans structure and execution just getting them home against their opponents.

Suggested Bet
Titans @ $2.70

Piling on the points = Over 46.5 points – Both sides have had their defensive fragilities in the opening rounds and this game should be no different. Throw in the fact that they can score plenty of points and this game should go well over.

Sydney Roosters v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Things went from bad to worse for the Roosters last week, unable to register a point in 80 minutes against the Cowboys, going down 40-nil. It is a large fall from grace for the Minor Premiers of the last 3 years, already conceding a third of the total points that did in 2015. Their defence has gone from the best in the league to the worse and they sit at the bottom of the competition ladder. This is a team that is playing without confidence and desperately need a quality player or two with experience to lead from the front. They will have their chance against Manly, who themselves have had a slow start to the season, albeit one win ahead of the Roosters. That came in MNF, as the Sea Eagles kept an amazing record against the Sharks at Brookvale Oval alive. More impressively was the fact that the home side was able to prevail with only 46% of possession, including not touching the ball in the first 9 and a half minutes of the match. They played a much more direct game than they had produced in the opening two rounds, playing the Sharks on the edges and continually taking the ball to the line. There was a growing confidence about their play that had been absent in the opening 2 weeks, with the challenge now for them to build on this effort in a match that they should win. The relief was evident on coach Trent Barrett’s face in the post-match interview but that could all come crumbling down if they were to suffer a defeat here and prove that their win over the Sharks was anything but lucky.

Team News
Roosters = Brendan Elliot has been named in the centres for Dale Copley (injured), while Eloni Vunakece coming onto the bench for Ian Henderson (injured).
Sea Eagles = Jamie Buhrer (injury) has been named as 18th man.

History
Overall = Roosters 12 Sea Eagles 15
Last 5 Matches = Roosters 3 Sea Eagles 2
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 63% Sea Eagles 52%
Form = Roosters 3 losses – Sea Eagles 1 win

Verdict
The Roosters are in unfamiliar territory; they haven’t started the season this poorly since Trent Robinson took over as coach. Their only saving grace is the fact that they are playing on their home turf, although that will only take them so far. Momentum is a big thing in Rugby League and the Sea Eagles will have plenty on their side, they appear to have more power in the forwards, class in the halves and speed and experience in the outside backs. On Monday we saw DCE take the ball to the line with purpose, allowing more time for Walker to attack the line on the following plays. The Roosters problems appear set to continue. While the Sea Eagles should win, fatigue will take its toll towards the end of this match as their last game was only on Monday. All things considered, expect the margin to stay within two converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles -4.5 @ $2.10

Soaring Sea Eagles = Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.85 – The Roosters have offered little in the way of defence so far this year but fatigue will limit what the Sea Eagles throw their way.

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Penrith Panthers

The Dragons bounced back on Sunday afternoon with a narrow win over the Rabbitohs, albeit without scoring many points. This continues to be a major problem for the Dragons, who have scored the least amount of points of any team in the competition, at an average of 8.6 per game. Winning form is good form though, although it will have to improve remarkably if they’re to compete with Penrith, where the conditions are expected to be conducive to attacking football. The Panthers will also have a rejuvenated approach, after prevailing in a tight match against the Broncos. They fought their way back from a 22-6 deficit, to prevail by a FG and managed to keep their opponents scoreless in the second half. It was their first win for the year and one that was much needed following a narrow loss the previous week to the Bulldogs. Anthony Griffin will not let his side get too excited though; he knows that they were lucky to get over the line and need to play more consistently over the 80 minutes.

Team News
Dragons = Unchanged.
Panthers = Trent Merrin (injury) returns at lock, Isaah Yeo shifts to second row and Elijah Taylor going back to the bench. Tyrone Peachey joins him, as he makes way in the centres for Waqa Blake (injured). Jeremy Latimore (suspended) is replaced in the squad by James Fisher-Harris (18th).

History
Overall = Dragons 17 Panthers 12
Last 5 Matches = Dragons 1 Panthers 4
At WIN Stadium = Dragons 62% Panthers 25%
Form = Dragons 1 win – Panthers 1 win

Verdict
Despite winning just the one match there is plenty to like about the Panthers. The youth within their squad isn’t afraid to back down from challenges and they demonstrated this last week against the Broncos, a game that most sides would have lost. The Dragons have hardly excited anyone either and it doesn’t appear as though their point scoring issues are going to be solved anytime soon. Wollongong is a hard place to win at, at the best of times, but the Panthers hold a healthy record against the Dragons; the Dragons have only beaten Panthers twice since Round 26, 2011.  The Dragons defence will keep things tight for the majority of the match, but just like last week the Panthers will get the better of their opponents towards the end of the match. As for the margin the Panthers still have plenty of development ahead of them and it would be surprising to see the Dragons blow them away on the scoreboard.

Suggested Bet
Panthers @ $2.05

Pouncing Panthers = Panthers 1-12 @ $3.25 – If the Panthers are to win this match, it would be surprising to see a margin at more than two converted tries. This is mainly due to the strength of the Dragons defence and their ability to shut down attacking options.

New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights

The Warriors sit second last on the competition ladder and their loss to the Storm on Sunday means that their losing streak now stretches 10-matches since last year. For their coach to survive this long is amazing in itself but if they were to lose to the Knights, it could be lights out for Andrew McFadden. The Warriors were better than last week compared with their previous two outings, but they are still winless and have an average losing margin of 10-points. Again, their key players were flat and failed to trouble their opponents too much. As for the Knights, they showed the fight that only the Warriors can dream of; piling on 24 unanswered points to almost grab a win. They had to settle with a draw in the end but will be happy that they at least came away with some points. Several of their experience players produced improved efforts, most notably Jarrod Mullen, who appeared to relish the release of pressure offered by Hodkinson. Nevertheless, they are still winless in 2016 and will have a tough trip across to New Zealand to try and grab their first. The Warriors will not want to give up their home ground advantage easily and questions still remain unanswered as to the potential of each team this season.

Team News
Warriors = James Gavet (suspended) and Nathaniel Roache (dropped) are replaced on the bench by Konrad Hurrell and Sam Lisone.
Knights = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Warriors 16 Draw 1 Knights 15
Last 5 Matches = Warriors 3 Knights 2
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 58% Knights 39%
Form = Warriors 3 losses – Knights 1 draw

Verdict
Time is running out for the Warriors to kick-start their 2016 campaign. Their only saving grace is that they have improved each week on their previous effort. The Knights also improved last week compared to Round 3, but the Raiders weren’t at their best. The Warriors have a strong record over the Knights at Mt Smart Stadium and this appears as though it will assist them here. It is not as if you can tip the Warriors in confidence, however they are more appealing than the Knights. A wise thing to do would be to stay away from betting on this game altogether as the Warriors have let down punters on numerous occasions. For the sake of tipping a winner, the Warriors are the desired selection, but only because they are the lesser of two evils. They are expected to pile the points on their Knights, this is trusted that they return to their exciting style of play. Things don’t just change over night and if I was to pick a margin I would say the Warriors would win by no more than two converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Save your money or Knights +12.5 @ $1.95

Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels

The Tigers came crashing back to earth last week against the Titans, upset on the road as fatigue from their MNF match took its toll. There were still some passages over the 80 minutes that will leave fans excited, although it was a match that they should’ve won in order to send a statement to the rest of the competition. It is important that the Tigers do not let this loss get to them and reduce their free-flowing play and back their ability. At stages it will be pressured but at this stage, it is working for them. Now, they face their toughest test so far this year, yet have the return of Robbie Farah at hooker to boost them. The Eels will be ready to offer stiff oppositions, after making it consecutive victories with a 14-point win over the Bulldogs. Previously unseen by the Eels on a regular basis, there was a calm control over their play that didn’t panic when they were coming up without points in the attacking zone. Instead, they used their strong field position to build pressure on their opponents and relied on their defence to hold steady. This match is set to be a blockbuster for two sides holding high hopes early on in 2016.

Team News
Tigers = Robbie Farah (injury) returns at hooker, with Dene Halatau shifting to second row, to cover for Chris Lawrence (suspended).
Eels = Manu Ma’u (suspension) is named in the second row, forcing Kenny Edwards to the bench and David Gower to 18th man.

History
Overall = Tigers 13 Draw 1 Eels 17
Last 5 Matches = Tigers 3 Eels 2
At ANZ Stadium = Tigers 41% Eels 39%
Form = Tigers 1 loss – Eels 2 wins

Verdict
It is not panic stations yet for the Tigers, but this will be their toughest test so far. They have their positives, but it remains to be seen whether or not Robbie Farah will fit easily back into the team or take a possession away from their halves and fullback. There is a lot to like about the Eels and the brand of football they play. It is tough and they are working hard to limit their mistakes while in possession. Combined with their ridged defence, they appear to have the right balance to win this match. They are limiting their opponents to an average of 13 points, while the Tigers have allowed 26 points per game. This was always going to be an issue for the Tigers against the better teams in the competition and from what we have seen from Parramatta so far; they are set to be a contender in 2016. They showed last week how they were able to run away with the match and this week they should be able to do the same, winning comfortably in the end.

Suggested Bet
Eels 13+ @ $3

Left side, Strong side = Michael Jennings FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Radradra is the obvious choice outside him but he is just too short at $6. Rather, with the expectation that the Eels will swing it to their left hand side, expect Jennings to go very close to opening his teams account.

Cronulla Sharks v Melbourne Storm

The Sharks momentum was short-lived, suffering a loss to the Sea Eagles in MNF and continuing their hoodoo at Brookvale Oval. Scoring points wasn’t an issue for them against the Dragons, but they appeared to be a different side on Monday, unable to capitalise on their superior possession statistics and failing to crack their opponents. They will need to address this issue with their halves, as their forwards carried the ball strongly through the middle of the field, offloading,  yet not as effective as in previous weeks. It will be a tough ask too as they face up against the only undefeated team in the competition, the Storm. They were clinical last week against the Warriors, wearing down their opponents to prevail in the closing stages of the game. The main difference between the two sides was the completion rate, with the Storm executing at 89% and committing just 4 errors. This wore down the bigger Warriors team, to the point where the Storm were able to use their more mobile and powerful pack to set a pressure-building platform for the halves. They traditionally start the season strong and 2016 is no different, now facing a side that has not beaten them in the past 5 meetings between the two sides.

Team News
Sharks = Unchanged.
Storm = Tohu Harris moves to centre, swapping with Kenny Bromwich, who moves to the second row.

History
Overall = Sharks 9 Storm 20
Last 5 Matches = Sharks 0 Storm 5
At Southern Cross Group Stadium = Sharks 54% Storm 58%
Form = Sharks 1 loss – Storm 3 wins

Verdict
There were real issues with the Sharks attack last week and looking back at their opening matches it seems to be a theme during passages of a game. Against a team with the quality of the storm it could be trouble, they know what it takes to win matches. Working against Melbourne is a 2-game road trip in two relatively difficult locations. That could ensure that things remain very close over the 80 minutes and it appears a safer option selection this bet rather than attempting to pick a clear winner. If forced, the Storm appear as the ideal choice despite the Sharks heading into this game as favorites; they have offered far more attacking opportunities and the Sharks still have plenty of improvement left in them. Their forwards will be up for the challenge that the Storm offer, but unless the halves use this, it could be wasted.

Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.65

Good luck!
Scooby