North Queensland Cowboys v Sydney Roosters
The Cowboys suffered their first defeat of 2016 last week, going down on the road to the Eels. It was a spirited performance from their opponents, although it was a seemingly uncharacteristic one from the Cowboys. They continually made mistakes in the second half, which reduced the pressure they were able to build on their opponents. Furthermore, JT was well off his best, only taking the ball to the line a handful of times, with the Eels pressuring him constantly. While it isn’t panic stations at the Cowboys, the Roosters head north desperate to record their first win of the season. They came out against the Raiders in Round 2 and were unable to deliver when it mattered most; beaten in the end by 1-point in the dying stages. It was a game that they had to fight their way back into and even with some improved play from their forwards, they were left wondering what might’ve been with some poor 6th tackle options. This will be another test again and a loss will only further enhance the pressure on their squad. Despite having quality players to return to the team, the Roosters may find themselves at the wrong end of the table before too long whereby they’re frantically chasing results.
Team News
Cowboys = Unchanged.
Roosters = Mitchell Fei will make his NRL debut from the bench, in place of Vincent Leuluai.
History
Overall = Cowboys 9 Roosters 19
Last 5 Matches = Cowboys 2 Roosters 3
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 4 Roosters 1
Form = Cowboys 1 loss – Roosters 2 losses
Verdict
The Roosters are outsiders in the match and rightly so, although it has been a long time since they have been the same odds that are being offered on them this week. That is an indication of how poor they’ve been in the opening weeks, with a trip north to Townsville only compounding the problems. Combine that with the Cowboys aiming to bounce back from a loss and the Roosters appear destined to head into Round 4 winless. It was an uncharacteristic performance from the Cowboys last week and it would be surprising to see them commit 14 errors again this season. Problem with being the Premiers though is that each opponent lifts every week, as they are seen as a benchmark for other sides. This will be the same here, however the Cowboys have too much power in the forwards for the Roosters to remain competitive. It will be a similar outcome to their Round 1 loss against the Rabbitohs, whereby the bigger team rolled through the middle with ease and set up victory for their team. That is not to suggest that this match will be a complete blow out, but the Roosters will find it very difficult to stick with their opponents over 80 minutes. Expect the Cowboys to get home comfortably in this game.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys 13-18 @ $5.25
Keeping Cooper = Gaving Cooper FTS and/or LTS @ $15 – He is the only player in the starting back row that is yet to cross the line. Expect Thurston to be looking for his strike man on the left edge this week, especially as JT has a point to prove following last week.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels
The Bulldogs escaped out of gaol with a late try against the Panthers last week, in a desperate play that proved just what they’re capable of. Early on though, they found themselves behind on the scoreboard with a lack of possession and simple errors counting against them. Losing Aiden Toleman early on didn’t help, although Des Hasler opted against using one player entirely on the bench. With a narrow escape, the Bulldogs can count themselves lucky and will head into this match hoping to get off to a good start. The Eels shocked most with their efforts against the Cowboys, proving how they’ve turned around their attitude and increased their fight. That match also saw the club-debut of Kieran Foran, a long wait for many but well worth it after seeing him in action. The Eels piled the pressure on their opponents and dictated the majority of the match; including making the Cowboys pay for their mistakes. They looked strong when spreading the ball to their edges and this win will go a long way to boosting their confidence. Now, the task for them is making their performances consistent and they have a great opportunity to make that happen against an old rival.
Team News
Bulldogs = Chase Stanley (injury) returns in the centres, pushing match winner Kerrod Holland out of the team. David Klemmer has been cleared to play and will take his place on the bench.
Eels = Issac De Gois is named at hooker for Nathan Peats (injured), with Kenny Edwards to start in the second row for Manu Ma’u (suspended). David Gower fills the vacant spot on the bench.
History
Overall = Bulldogs 20 Draw 1 Eels 14
Last 5 Matches = Bulldogs 4 Eels 1
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 10 Eels 4
Form = Bulldogs 2 wins – Eels 1 win
Verdict
This game is set to be a very close and physical encounter. On one hand, you have a Bulldogs team that is big, strong and powerful and on the other is an Eels side that is reestablishing themselves with the style and formation they play. Throw in the fact that this is a rivalry match and it will be one epic contest. The Bulldogs certainly have the power, but missed the direction offered from Lichaa at hooker, which in turn increased the pressure on the halves. The Eels need to use this to their advantage and play their opponents through the middle of the field. The short turnaround from Saturday will hurt the Eels and towards the end of the match the players will be feeling very fatigued, whereas the Bulldogs have a 7-day turnaround to rest their bodies. It will be a very tight and hotly contested match that will go down to the wire. In terms of a winner though, the Eels were good last week, but were aided by their opponent’s mistakes. It will be surprising to see the Bulldogs commit the same errors that allow them to take advantage of the match. The Eels are building to something very positive, but this will perhaps be a game they will win later in the year as opposed to Round 3.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.90
Nail biter = Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.90 – If you want to make a call, lean the way of the Bulldogs but by no more than 2 converted tries. As it is so tight, I would avoid picking a winner but if you must, go for this.
Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders
Things went from bad to worse for the Knights on Saturday, flogged by 42-points at the hands of the Rabbitohs. In a dangerous sign towards the rest of the year, the inexperienced side were never a chance in the contest. The Rabbitohs played at a level that the Knights can only dream of reaching this season and they have a lot to learn before they can think of winning. It was always going to be a long road for Nathan Brown, but perhaps the problems were worse than first thought. They may have a chance against the Raiders though, who have played the last two matches in very hot conditions, albeit for two wins. They travel north hoping to back up their first two efforts at home that have them undefeated heading into this game. In the past, their last match would’ve been a game that they would’ve let slip. They were missing their halves and lost 2-players early on, however that mattered little as other players lifted to fill the void; most notably Josh Hodgeson, who kicked a 40/20 with the match on the line. It must be noted that they were very poor at times, but hung on in the contest and showed fight. Even with the Knights poor form, this game could be dangerous and it will be a great chance for the Raiders to again prove that they are a team moving in the right direction.
Team News
Knights = David Bhana (injured) is out, with Sione Mata’utia (15) and Pauli Pauli (18) fighting it out for the final bench sport.
Raiders = Brenko Lee comes into the centres for Joey Leilua (suspended).
History
Overall = Knights 15 Draw 1 Raiders 16
Last 5 Matches = Knights 1 Raiders 4
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 10 Raiders 4
Form = Knights 2 losses – Raiders 2 wins
Verdict
Even with the Raiders having a 28% winning record at Hunter Stadium, they have a great recent record over the Knights. Many have suggested that this is the game where the Knights can break their losing streak, although the Raiders will not be easy to move past. Even with a several chances at losing the match last week, they found a way to stay competitive. They are yet to prove themselves against a quality opposition however everything the Knights have offered is hardly anything to be excited about. Their thrashing at the hands of the Rabbitohs only further highlighted their flaws and if the Raiders are serious about turning around their fortunes and peoples opinions of them, they can start by winning this match. The Knights are still too inexperienced to change things just yet, with Nathan Brown even admitting in the press conference that this would take time. That is a dangerous position to be in as a coach and with confidence low, expect the Raiders to capitalize. As for the margin, it would be surprising to see the Raiders win by anything more than 2-converted tries as they’re missing their first choices halves pairing.
Suggested Bet
Raiders -4.5 @ $1.90
Green Machine = Raiders 1-12 @ $2.80 – Due to the Raiders mistakes and improved Knights effort for their first home game, things will be tight. Considering the Raiders do not have their halves also could lead to a limit on points.
Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos
The Panthers fell agonisingly short against the Bulldogs last Thursday, after starting the game strongly following their forwards laying a strong foundation. In a move away from their efforts in Round 1, the Panthers aimed to tackle the strong Bulldogs pack in the middle and take the game to them. This worked well for majority of the match but a few poor kicking options left them wondering. A few questionable decisions towards the end of the match to take a penalty goal over continually pressuring their opponents also could’ve worked against them. The Broncos had no such issues though, putting a physical Warriors team to the sword. It wasn’t easy for them, but they got the job done in the end with brutal defence and exciting execution in attack. The Broncos further established themselves as one of the top teams in the competition and it is proving difficult to stop them. An interesting side note in this match is that it is the first time that Wayne Bennett and Anthony Griffin will do battle following Griffin’s sacking and Bennett resuming his position at the Broncos. These two coaches know one another very well and will have their sides primed to combat the strengths of one another.
Team News
Panthers = Will Smith returns at fullback for Dean Whare (injured). Tyrone Peachey and Peter Wallace will line up, just like last week, at 5/8 and hooker, respectively.
Broncos = Greg Eden is named on the wing for Corey Oates (injured).
History
Overall = Panthers 10 Draw 1 Broncos 19
Last 5 Matches = Panthers 3 Broncos 2
At Pepper Stadium = Panthers 8 Broncos 7
Form = Panthers 2 losses – Broncos 2 wins
Verdict
The Broncos are performing the way they are because of their class; although in saying that, there has been a sense in their past few matches that they are just doing what is required of them to win and it is looking easy. They have been doing it tougher than most think and like the Cowboys and others, teams are lifting each week when they face them because they know what to expect. It will be no different for the Panthers, who will be out to prove a point and grab their first win of the season. Unlike the Bulldogs though, the Broncos will not allow too many opportunities for their opponents to dictate the match. Bennett also has a great read on Jamie Soward, a player who he has previously coached. If the Panthers were at full strength, this could be a different story; but in the form that the Broncos are in, it will take an almighty effort for the Panthers to alter the course of this match. As for the margin, the Broncos have just kicked clear in the last two matches towards the end of the game; it is time for them to come out and dictate this match from start to finish and win by more than 2 converted tries.
Suggested Bet
Broncos 13+ @ $2.60
In the garden of Eden = Greg Eden FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Eden has been called into the team on the Broncos left edge, a side of the field that they love attacking. Look for the Broncos to head there as much as possible and expose a Panthes edge that conceded a few tries in Round 2.
Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers
Despite going down, the Titans were spirited in their match against the Storm in Round 2. It was a sign that perhaps the culture at the Titans was slowly turning around and if it wasn’t for a 15-minute lapse in performance, the margin would’ve been a lot closer. There appears to be a strong combination building between their halves and edge players, continually threatening the Storm in numerous areas on the field. It will be another tough game for them this weekend, as the Tigers have started the season undefeated. It is a position that not many people thought they would be in. However they continue to prove people wrong with a young group of players proving their worth. The injection of Brooks last week from suspension only lifted the Tigers further, allowing Mitchell Moses to play wider. Outclassing those two players is James Tedesco, who is taking his game to another level and pushing for a berth in Origin. Things can unravel in the NRL very quickly but at this stage he can do no wrong, scoring a hat-trick against Manly. The visitors were below their best but credit has to go to the Tigers as they forced their opponents to play that way. In an awkward road trip, it will be interesting to see if they can back up their exciting play.
Team News
Titans = Agnatius Paasi is named to start at prop, swapping with Ryan James, who moves back to the bench.
Tigers = Kyle Lovett comes into the second row for Curtis Sironen (injury). Jack Buchanan comes onto the bench, while Michael Chee-Kam is named as 18th man.
History
Overall = Titans 8 Tigers 7
Last 5 Matches = Titans 3 Tigers 2
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 4 Tigers 4
Form = Titans 1 loss – Tigers 2 wins
Verdict
The Tigers have been great in their opening two matches though and based on those performances, they have earned the billing as favorites. Interestingly, it will be the first time they have carried this into a match this season and that can always change the way players play. Apart from a lapse last week, the Titans were good against a strong Melbourne team. They have proven in their opening two matches that they are not going to be a side that others can easily brush past just yet and will be out to cause an upset. It will be a tough task to upset the Tigers but there is plenty to suggest that it can happen. The Tigers have met two sides that have failed to play 80 minutes each week and by winning the battle of patience, they have won the game. They will allow chances to their opponents and the Titans will look to make the most of it. They deserved more credit than they got for the points they scored against the Storm and for the first time in a long time, their halves appear settled. However they have a short turnaround and a trip north to contend with; something that the best teams struggle with at times. If the Titans can use this to their advantage and take the game to the Tigers pack, then they can cause an upset. In terms of an investment, back around a close game, yet a high scoring contest. The Tigers are great at scoring points but have struggled to limit them, with the same to be said for the Titans based on last week’s effort.
Suggested Bet
Total points over 44.5 @ $1.90
Titanic effort = Titans 1-12 @ $3.50 – It will be an upset if they’re to win against the Tigers so cash in on the value on offer with the home side winning by 1-12 points.
New Zealand Warriors v Melbourne Storm
The Warriors suffered another defeat last Friday against the Broncos as questions continue to be raised about their ability and execution. It was an improved performance from Round 1, however fatigue got the better of them in the last quarter of the match and they were unable to get within striking distance of their opponents. More alarmingly, was the stat that 5/8, Shaun Johnson, only took the ball to the line once. Calls to move him closer to the ball at halfback could be right but either way, he needs to increase his involvement if the Warriors are to win. They face a tough test against the Storm, who are undefeated in their opening two matches. It was a 15-minute passage whereby they were able to show the class they have, compared with the Titans, which ultimately set up a comfortable victory for them. Losing Billy Slater prior to KO for an extended period of time wasn’t ideal, but youngster Cameron Munster is ready to fill the void. Their forwards were again tough and dangerous when carrying the ball, setting up a great platform for the halves and outside backs to work off. It could be a complex trip across the Tasman to face the Warriors given their current form, but you can be sure that the Storm will be prepared both mentally and physically for what their opponents throw their way.
Team News
Warriors = Albert Vete and Charlie Gubb are named on the bench for Sam Lisone (injured) and Raymond Faitala-Mariner (dropped). John Palavi (18), Jonathan Wright (19) and Korad HUrrell (20) are named on an extended bench as a few other players are in doubt.
Storm = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Warriors 16 Draw 2 Storm 18
Last 5 Matches = Warriors 3 Storm 2
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 9 Storm 8
Form = Warriors 2 losses – Storm 2 wins
Verdict
The Warriors improved from one week to the next and perhaps they can go one better here and grab a win. There is no doubt that playing their first home match of the season here will give them extra incentive. The Storm do not have the easiest preparation either, being the first team to travel to New Zealand and having a shorter turnaround following a Sunday night game. Then again, they have demonstrated far more class than the Warriors have in the opening 2 matches of 2016. The visitors will continually test the Warriors and question marks are lingering in terms of their performance and execution. Until they demonstrate more fight and a higher level of execution, there is no way you can take the Warriors with confidence. They will again be spirited but they will fall short eventually, as they have already shown twice this season that they cannot play for 80 minutes.
Suggested Bet
Storm +1.5 @ $1.90
St George-Illawarra Dragons v South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Dragons were at their worst last Sunday against the Sharks, only managing to score the solitary penalty goal in a 30-2 drubbing. Making 16 errors sums up their performance, unable to build pressure in attack and allowing the Sharks to gain momentum through good field position. Their 51% completion rate is not up to the standard they set for themselves in 2015 and if continued, could mean a long 2016. This is the polar opposite to the Rabbitohs, who were fantastic again against the Knights. Their opponents flaws were only increased with the speed and execution of the Rabbitohs, who put together some fantastic support play on the back of offloads. Furthermore, their defence was tough and uncompromising; a sign that the Rabbitohs are perhaps better than most people were expecting. Nevertheless, they are yet to face a quality opponent, but it is the execution against lesser opponents that is impressing most of all. Knowing the quality of their opponents, the Dragons will lift for this match and it will be up to the Rabbitohs to weather the early pressure. The Dragons started fairly well against the Sharks but failed to stick with them, so the task for them will be to play against a quality opponent for 80 minutes.
Team News
Dragons = Josh Dugan is shifted to fullback for Kurt Mann (dropped), while Euan Aitken is named in the vacant centre spot.
Rabbitohs = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Dragons 15 Rabbitohs 10
Last 5 Matches = Dragons 1 Rabbitohs 4
At SCG = Dragons 0 Rabbitohs 3
Form = Dragons 2 losses – Rabbitohs 2 wins
Verdict
The Dragons are searching for an instant fix to their problems and it doesn’t appear as it they will come here. Struggling to score points has been an issue for them for a few years now and this week they have moved Dugan to fullback but there is even doubt around whether or not he will start. Then when you consider the quality of opponent they will face, it appears to be an uphill battle for them. In saying that, the Rabbitohs are yet to face a quality opponent themselves and we could be making an opinion of a team that is misguided. Nevertheless, winning form is good form and they have not only been winning matches, they have been dominating the entire contests and not allowing their opponents a chance to dictate the game. Stick with them to get the job done here and comfortably. While the Dragons defence will be tighter in the opening stages, the Rabbitohs have the power that can break them down in the middle of the field and they will be more likely (at this stage of the season than the Sharks) to capitalize on their opponent’s mistakes.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs -8.5 @ $1.90
Bunny hopping = Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.50 – It is no secret that the Rabbitohs can score points; they have managed a total of 90 in their opening two matches. The Dragons will keep things tight early one, but after that the Rabbitohs should be able to kick clear.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Cronulla Sharks
The Sea Eagles suffered another loss on MNF, this time at the hands of a young Tigers team. Again, people were left wondering if the hype surrounding the Sea Eagles prior to the season commencing was overstated or if the new combination of players would need longer to gel together. Having a 71% completion rate, committing 10 errors and allowing 36 points is never going to allow a team to be competitive; with this highlighted by rookie coach, Trent Barrett, in the post-match conference. Even with new players, you would expect their defence to be more resolute and offer greater resistance. Pressure is growing on them to grab their first victory and it will be no easy task against the Sharks. The visitors will head into this match full of confidence, following a great performance against the Dragons. Despite dominance on the field and on the scoreboard, coach Shane Flanagan was honest in his assessment, believing that the team has plenty of improvement left in them; with that win nowhere near what they’re capable of. Had it have been a different opponent; they may have been made to pay for their 9-errors. Nevertheless, it was their first win for the season and one that will give them the confidence to go to another level in this match.
Team News
Sea Eagles = Unchanged.
Sharks = Chris Heighinton (suspension) is named on the bench, with Joseph Paulo moving to 18th man.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles 17 Sharks 8
Last 5 Matches = Sea Eagles 5 Sharks 0
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 10 Sharks 3
Form = Sea Eagles 2 losses – Sharks 1 win
Verdict
The statistics around this contest are not kind to the Sharks at all, to the point where the home team is creeping into favoritism. Manly have the squad strength but have failed to put that into action in the first two matches. This is a great chance for them to turn around their season given the Sharks record at Brookvale, a place where they have only ever won there 5 times in the clubs history! Winning just doesn’t happen though; it will take a lot more from their team if they’re to turn around their fortunes. The Sharks showed enough signs last Sunday to suggest that Manly can win, especially with the errors they made. This game is expected to be a very tight contest and it could go down to the bounce of the ball in the dying stages. Forced to make a choice, I would tip the Sea Eagles because history (and fatigue) is against the Sharks but for the sake of an investment, go for nothing other than a close match.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.90
Good luck!
Scooby
