Broncos (2nd) v Storm (5th)

The Broncos flexed their muscles last week against the Rabbitohs, turning out one of their most dominating performances of the season in a 47-12 victory. It was a sign that this team is beginning to peak at the right time and silenced many doubts about their halves. The loss in Round 24 to the Roosters still has some doubt about their overall potential, but it appears to have refocussed then towards their goals. After 2-weeks in Sydney, they return home to face the Storm, a team that will be confident after their win over the Cowboys. That match saw the Storm control the speed of the game positively, while they were strongly complimented by their key players. Aside from the regular performers, Cameron Munster again proved that moving forward, he is vital to the success of this team. More importantly, it saw them bounce back from a loss to the Knights a week earlier and remind fans that they are still a team to be feared. A win would see them temporarily move into the Top 4 and assure themselves a “second-chance” if they were to lose in the first week. That is all ahead of them, with their primary focus winning this match and carrying as much momentum as possible into the Finals. The Broncos also have a shot at capturing the minor Premiership, but they too will have an emphasis on bigger accomplishments.

Team News
Broncos = Lachlan Maranta comes onto the wing for Jordan Kahu (injured). Jarrod Wallace will start in the back row for Alex Glenn (suspended), while David Stagg comes onto the bench to fill the vacant spot. Ben Hunt (rested) has been ruled out, with a youngster Ashley Taylor coming into the side at halfback.
Storm = Tim Glasby has been named to start, swapping roles with Jordan McLean, who will start from the bench.

History
Overall = Broncos 12 Draw 1 Storm 24
Last 5 matches = Broncos 1 Storm 4
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 59% Storm 75%
Form = Broncos 1 win – Storm 1 win

Verdict
The withdrawal of Hunt brings the Storm into this match, with the halves being the only constant for the Broncos throughout 2015. They have been their spark and backbone throughout 2015 and while it may be a smart move heading forward, it may limit what they have to offer here. In saying that, this match will be a send off for a few of their retiring stars before Finals football kicks in. The short turnaround will impact the Storm, as will the travel north to Brisbane. The Broncos are deserved favourite in this game and it will take a strong effort for the Storm to cause an upset. The Broncos have a strong set of forwards that lead the way positively against a large Rabbitohs pack last week. They can lift the intensity off the bench when needed and they will set the standard for their opponents to meet. Things will be tight though, this is an early preview of what is ahead and with that in mind, take the home side to win by no more than 2-converted tries. This match could even be decided in the closing minutes or seconds.

Suggested Bet
Broncos 1-12 @ $2.90

Roosters (1st) v Rabbitohs (7th)

The Roosters extended their winning streak to 11-matches with a dominating performance against Manly last week. With their opponents aiming to keep their Finals hopes alive, many were suggesting that the home side could spring an upset due to the players missing for the Roosters. That wasn’t the case, in fact it was the opposite as the visitors played to a level that many have been unable to match. It gave them great impotence moving forward as they learn to win without their injured stars but also reinforced how capable they still are. As teams build momentum towards the Finals, the Rabbitohs are limping to a defence of the title, completely upstaged and outplayed by the Broncos last week. To make matters worse, they too are struggling with player availabilities and appear to be suffering fatigue from a Premiership hangover. Their loss meant that they have dropped down from 4th to 7th on the ladder, but they will still be a dangerous team to face on their day. With limited matches remaining, they have to take each match on its merit with a chance to upset their bitter rivals and stop them from capturing their third successive Minor Premiership.

Team News
Roosters = Michael Jennings (suspension) is back in the centres, pushing Mitchell Aubusson to the bench and Matt McIlwrick to 18th man. SKD is also set to be a late inclusion on the wing for Brendan Elliot.
Rabbitohs = Cameron McInnes is named to start at hooker for Issac Luke (suspended), while Chris McQueen is recalled for to the back row for John Sutton (injured).

History
Overall = Roosters 20 Rabbitohs 10
Last 5 matches = Roosters 2 Rabbitohs 3
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 64% Rabbitohs 33%
Form = Roosters 11 wins – Rabbitohs 2 losses

Verdict
The Rabbitohs are facing an uphill battle to win here, with their form declining and the Roosters firing on all cylinders. It has been a disappointing few weeks, culminating with a loss to the Broncos last week. The fashion in which the Broncos scored their points sucked out all momentum that the Rabbitohs had built early and they were unable to peg their opponents back. Without Luke and Inglis, two of their key players missing out of their spine, the pressure will build on the halves. If they were at full-strength, it would be a different story. While the Roosters are also missing players, they still possess a quality list of players across the field. They are able to cover their losses better than the Rabbitohs, who are looking very tired after a busy start to the season. As for the score, the traditional rivalry between the two sides suggests that it will be close, but you cannot doubt the Roosters try scoring potential. In their past 5 victories, their average margin has been 14.8, while the Rabbitohs have lost their past 3 matches by an average of 23 points. To make matters worse, in each of those losses, they have allowed their opponents to score an average of 35.7 points. This doesn’t bode well for the visitors and if they’re not careful, things could get very ugly towards the end of this match.

Suggested Bet
Roosters – 10.5 @ $2

Home to roost = Roosters 13+ @ $2.25 – As mentioned above, the Rabbitohs have had plenty of difficulties limiting their opponents points. Expect this to continue here, with the Roosters having little regard for their opponents over 80 minutes.

Panthers (15th) v Knights (16th)

It is a good, old-fashioned battle for the wooden spoon as the two sides battle to avoid the dreaded accomplishment. The Panthers appeared disinterested and without motivation against the Raiders last week, giving further support that this is a season that they would rather forget. It is a dramatic reversal of form compared to 2014, but one that can be attributed to their horror injury toll. The only thing motivating them now is avoiding the spoon in front of their home fans. The Knights shocked most last week with their efforts against the Bulldogs, going down by 2-points in what would’ve been the perfect home send-off for club legend Kurt Gidley. It wasn’t meant to be but the team can be left feeling proud of their efforts against a superior team. Although they head into the final round at the bottom of the table, they will be quietly confident that they can move past the Panthers with a win here and finish their season off on the right note.

Team News
Panthers = Unchanged initially, but replacements expected for Jamie Soward (injured) and Bryce Cartwright (injured). Sione Katoa and Chris Smith will come into the team to make their NRL debuts.
Knights = Adam Clydsdale (illness) returns at hooker for Tyler Randell, who drops back to the bench.

History
Overall = Panthers 8 Draw 1 Knights 18
Last 5 matches = Panthers 2 Knights 3
At Pepper Stadium = Panthers 53% Knights 59%
Form = Panthers 2 losses – Knights 1 loss

Verdict
Looking back at previous weeks, the Panthers are going to be hard pressed trying to win this match. They were without conviction against the Raiders, although perhaps returning home will lift them. In saying that, if they were at full strength, it would be a different story. As it stands, they have a second-string team trying to compete at the highest level. There is no “club legend” leaving like there is at the Knights and the home sides motivation remains questionable. Compare that to the Knights who have Kurt Gidley moving on and a new-found motivation under Danny Buderus; and the Panthers look out of their depth. Rugby league is a strange game at times, but with a short turnaround and a lack of quality players, the Knights should be able to run away with this game in the end and more importantly, avoid the wooden spoon.

Suggested Bet
Knights -1.5 @ $1.95

In shining amour = Knights 13+ @ $3.10 – The Panthers are a spirited team, but it will take some defensive quality to halt the Knights. Fatigue will eventually hit the Panthers and with their motivation low at this stage of the season, it doesn’t appear likely that they will be able to limit the Knights attacking threats.

Dragons (8th) v Tigers (14th)

The Dragons missed a golden opportunity to assure themselves of a spot in the Finals after losing to the Titans on the road. After dominating the match early, they lost all momentum and appear to be losing a connection between their combinations. It meant that their attack became stagnated and returned to the poor execution that plagued this team earlier in the year. They need to put that behind them and focus on controlling their own destiny against the Tigers. As for their opponents, they put a week of off-field turmoil behind them to thrash the Warriors. The Tigers had little regard for their opponents along the way to victory, proving that despite the controversy plaguing the club, they are still capable of exciting football. Unfortunately the problems will not disappear just yet and they will have numerous questions asked this week. If they can put that behind them again, they could cause a stir with an upset in this match, with the possibility still alive that the Dragons could miss the Finals altogether.

Team News
Dragons = Jake Marketo comes into the back row for Joel Thompson (injured), while Eto Nabuli is named on the wing for Dylan Farrell (injured). George Rose is named on the bench and Craig Garvey is 18th man.
Tigers = Unchanged, aside for Kyle Lovett coming onto the bench and Manaia Cherrington moving to 18th man.

History
Overall = Dragons 16 Tigers 14
Last 5 matches = Dragons 3 Tigers 2
At ANZ Stadium = Dragons 51% Tigers 42%
Form = Dragons 1 loss – Tigers 1 win

Verdict
The Tigers have a real chance to cause a stir in the Finals and if last week is to go by, sending Robbie Farah out as a winner motivates their team. Whether or not this is the club legend’s last match in the Tigers colours remains to be seen, but there is a sense that they have a point to prove. In saying that, the Dragons should be able to rise above this factor if they want to be competitive in the Finals. A similar performance to the one displayed last week will not be tolerated and if they’re not careful, they could miss out on next week altogether. Expect things to be tight in this match, the Dragons are one of the most dour teams in the competition when it comes to attack, averaging just 17.5 points per game. While the Tigers have conceded 23-points per game, they will have an easier time trying to halt their opponents here. It would be surprising to see them win this match by more than 2 converted tries; which does bring the line into play but not to the level of interest that will garner an investment.

Suggested Bet
Dragons 1-12 @ $3.25

Cowboys (3rd) v Titans (13th)

The Cowboys were limited last week at the hands of the Storm, eventually leading to them losing the match. It was the least amount of points the Cowboys have scored since Round 1 this year. It was evident that they missed Michael Morgan in the halves but after the diagnosis that he could miss the remainder of the year, it may be something that they have to adapt to. They appear destined to finish the season in 3rd, meaning that they will be on the road from Week 1 of the Finals. They could even rest players this week in order to freshen them up for more important matches that lie ahead. Either way, they will still want to grab a win. The Titans are standing in their way and they will be confident after their win over the Dragons. It wasn’t the highest quality match, but it was a much-needed win that meant that they will certainly not get the wooden spoon. The Titans have been guilty of going missing in matches and one has to question their motivation with just one match remaining. Last week it was the opportunity to send their departing players out as winners on home turf for the last time and now they will have one eye focused on what lies ahead on Monday. This poses a tricky situation for the Cowboys, nevertheless, they have to do what they have done for the majority of the season and rise above the problems to execute to a high level.

Team News
Cowboys = James Tamou (injury) returns to the starting side, with Ben Hannant relegated to the bench. Ben Spina moves to 18th man.
Titans = Ryan James (suspension) returns to the front row, joined by Luke Douglas is the starting side. Matt White and Eddy Pettybourne shift to the bench, with Kalifa Faifai Loa named as 18th man.

History
Overall = Cowboys 7 Titans 8
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 2 Titans 3
At 1300 Smiles Stadium = Cowboys 79% Titans 20%
Form = Cowboys 1 win – Titans 2 wins

Verdict
It is full steam ahead for the Cowboys but considering that their position on the table cannot be affected by the outcome of this match, perhaps they will be better-suited resting players in preparation for next week. That can get into dangerous territory and winning momentum is what you want to carry forward into the Finals. Either way, this match appears as though there is only one possible outcome, with the Titans almost non-existent in betting markets. Their win last week was gutsy, however the Cowboys will pose a new level of skill and attacking threats than the Dragons did last week. Even if they choose to rest several players, they still have the quality within their side to overcome a team ranked 13th on the ladder. The most difficult decision is deciding on how many points the home team will win by. So far in 2015, the Titans have allowed an average of 25.8 points to be scored against them, while the Cowboys average 23.6 in attack. This will blow out against a team outside the Top 8 like the Titans, with their past 4 victories against teams in this position being won by an average of 25.5. Expect this trend to continue and with the Cowboys looking to build momentum into next week, the points may flow right up until the 80th minute.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys -14.5 @ $2

#ridemcowboys = Cowboys 19+ @ $2.50 – As mentioned above, the Cowboys have a knack of piling on the points against teams ranked below them on the ladder. Expect this to continue if they’re at full-strength, with the Titans unlikely to be able to limit their opponents scoring in this match.

Eels (11th) v Raiders (10th)

In another dead-rubber of a match, both teams will be aiming to finish the season on the right note. It was another disappointing finish by the Eels last week against the Sharks; after they had fought back to be in a winning position, they let their opponents back into the match with defensive errors. It was a sign that the spirit within this side is still present and that they are determined to finish the season strongly. The Raiders had no such issues against the Panthers, turning on an impressive first half display to jump ahead on the scoreboard and cruise to victory. It left fans wondering what may have been in 2015, especially considering that they won on home turf, a place that has been unkind to them throughout the year. Many believe that at this late stage, the young Raiders team are building themselves towards success in 2016. It is a tough call to make this far out, but the potential is there for this team if they are able to produce consistent football. The same can be said for the Eels, who are never able to limit their mistakes on either side of the ball. With little to play for, minimal pressure and a few rule changes being trialled for the NRL, we may just see an exciting brand of rugby league for the next 80 minutes.

Team News
Eels = David Gower is named to start at lock, swapping with Darcy Lussick shifting back to the bench.
Raiders = Jack Wighton (suspended) is replaced by Sisa Waqa at fullback, while Jordan Rapana (suspended) comes in to fill the vacant wing spot. Mitch Cornish comes into the side at 5/8 for Blake Austin (injured).

History
Overall = Eels 11 Raiders 14
Last 5 matches = Eels 1 Raiders 4
At Pirtek Stadium = Eels 61% Raiders 42%
Form = Eels 1 loss – Raiders 1 win

Verdict
The loss of Blake Austin has lead to the Raiders becoming outsiders in this match. Aside from his absence, the two teams appear to be fairly evenly matched. The fact that the Raiders are backing up from MNF will cause fatigue to kick in towards the end of this match; then again, this will be their last game of the season so it is not as if they need to leave anything in reserve for following weeks. The Eels were remarkably better last week missing just 18 tackles and committing 9 errors. The Raiders missed slightly more (30 tackles) and made 1 less error, leading many to think that they will build on that effort here. Either way, this should be a high scoring encounter where both teams have a chance to win in the match. As for the winner, the Raiders have shown strong attacking form this year, averaging 23.8 points per game and their performances away from home have been their shining light (54.5%). As both teams have conceded the same averaged amount of points (23.9 points), the difference in this match lies within the Eels only average 18.4 points in attack. The Raiders are set to win this game, but it should be no more than 2-converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Raiders 1-12 @ $3.60 

Double line = Raiders +3.5/Over 48.5 points @ $3.80 – As mentioned above, this match is expected to be high scoring. With the Raiders expected to win, there is no reason why you cannot combine the two options and get a similar return for your investment.

Sharks (4th) v Sea Eagles (9th)

The Sharks headed into Round 26 inside the Top 4 but following the Storms strong win on Thursday; they now need to win in order to return to that position. That has numerous benefits for them, most notably remaining in Sydney and a chance to rest the following week if they can upset the Roosters. Last week, victory appeared to be in danger until they again swung momentum their way and overrun the Eels. That win showed determination and fight that has been absent during important matches in recent years and perhaps a sign that the Sharks are destined for bigger things. The Sea Eagles missed yet another chance to move into Finals contention, thrashed by the Roosters on their home turf. It was the final match for Geoff Toovey and other departing players at Brookvale Oval and the fact that they executed so poorly was a sign that this team has lost a lot of pride over the year. Believe it or not, they are still a mathematical chance to make the Finals but would need to completely dismantle the Sharks in the process and hope that the Dragons lose. The first part is within their control but going on their form in recent weeks, it will be beyond them against a team that possess the quality of the Sharks.

Team News
Sharks = Anthony Tupou (injury) and Ben Barba (injury) return and are named on the bench, with Barba included as 18th man. Blake Ayshford (dropped) has been left out of the team.
Sea Eagles = Ligi Sao is named to replace Willie Mason (suspended), with Jesse Sene-Lefao coming onto the bench.

History
Overall = Sharks 8 Sea Eagles 16
Last 5 matches = Sharks 1 Sea Eagles 4
At Remondis Stadium = Sharks 54% Sea Eagles 50%
Form = Sharks 2 wins – Sea Eagles 2 losses

Verdict
The Sea Eagles have been lacklustre in recent weeks and their motivation is oblivious to those observing. They have had numerous opportunities to push their way into the Finals, only to come up short. Now, as they head down to Cronulla’s home ground on a Sunday afternoon, winning appears to be a distant target. The Sharks are growing in strength each week and will relish the extra time they have to prepare for this game. At home this season, they have a 54.5% winning record, compared with the Sea Eagles 36.3% record on the road. That doesn’t look like changing either. The Sharks should be able to kick clear of their opponents, winning this match at least a converted try. Once they get clear, there is plenty of uncertainty around whether or not the Sea Eagles can limit their opponents scoring. In their past losses, they have allowed their opponents to score an average of 32 points, while the Sharks have averaged 35 points in their past 3 wins. With that in mind, there is no limit to what tally they can run up on their opponents.

Suggested Bet
Sharks -4.5 @ $1.70

Shark alarm = Sharks 13+ @ $2.80 – Once the Sharks get their confidence, they will be out to make a statement. Manly have hardly offered resistance in recent weeks and their motivation is certainly going to be questioned towards the end of this match where their opponents pull away.

Bulldogs (6th) v Warriors (12th)

The Bulldogs just scraped home last week against the Knights but unfortunately for them, they will be without their halfback Trent Hodkinson for the remainder of the year. While this will have its negatives, the players that are filling the void will be the same ones that they look to when Hodkinson departs the club at the end of the year. They still possess a strong pack of forwards that on their day, is arguably the best in the competition. When the fulltime whistle sounds, the Warriors will breath a sigh of relief as it brings to an end a horror conclusion to their season. They have been absent in their recent matches, hardly putting up a fight against any opponent that they have faced. To say that they have been disappointing would be an understatement and the less said about them, the better. If the Bulldogs are on song, they could post a rather large score against their opponents in this match. Having the last match of the round will also give them a chance to know what is required of them moving into the Finals next week and what position on the ladder will be most beneficial to them.

Team News
Bulldogs = Josh Reynold (injury) returns at 5/8, allowing Moses Mbye to move to halfback for Trent Hodkinson (injured). Aiden Tolman (injury) is named in the starting side at prop, with Sam Kasiano reverting back to the bench.
Warriors = Tuimoala Lolohea shifts to fullback for Sam Tomkins (injured), with Mason Lino shifting to halfback and Chad Townsend (injury) returning at 5/8. Ben Matulino (suspension) returns at prop, forcing Sebastine Ikahihifo back to the bench for Charlie Gubb (suspended). Raymond Faitala-Mariner is also named on the bench, alongside Siliva Havili (18th).

History
Overall = Bulldogs 15 Draw 2 Warriors 11
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 4 Warriors 1
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 56% Warriors 40%
Form = Bulldogs 4 wins – Warriors 7 losses

Verdict
This game will be all one-way traffic in favour of the home team. Other results across the weekend will impact upon the way the Bulldogs approach this match nevertheless, even with the quality of players that are missing for the Warriors on top of their recent efforts, winning appears to be well beyond them. The outcome then becomes a question of how much they will win this match by. The Warriors have conceded an average of 24.4 points per match and have just a 26% win record on the road. Their average margin of defeat in the past 4 matches has been 29.5 points, with just one (14 points against the Panthers) being under 30-points. The Bulldogs will be ready to fire and with that in mind, things could get very ugly for the Warriors before they head home to drown their sorrows. There is only one likely outcome, so invest around the Bulldogs clamping down on their opponents and building momentum towards the Finals.

Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 30+ @ $2.55

Good luck!
Scooby