Rabbitohs (4th) v Broncos (2nd)

The Rabbitohs are reeling currently, with a loss to the Bulldogs compounded by an injury to Greg Inglis. The loss wasn’t an ideal outcome, but it was somewhat expected with the players that were missing. Still, they were unable to gain momentum early on in the match through a lack a possession, with the Bulldogs capitalizing on this. The fact that Melbourne lost to the Knights kept them in the Top 4, but with the Broncos in this match followed by the Roosters, doubt is growing around this position. The Broncos also went winless and have chosen to remain in Sydney with a short turnaround from their match against the Roosters on Saturday. It was a thrilling contest that the Broncos probably should’ve won considering the players that went off for the home team and the fact that their bench was reduced to just 15 players. Their loss also meant that they lose top billing in the competition and unless they finish the season off strongly, could even lose home field advantage throughout the Finals. Their loss will not hurt their confidence too much, but it does give Wayne Bennett and his team plenty to work on this week, as they were routinely exposed on the edges.

Team News
Rabbitohs = Alex Johnston is shifted to fullback in the absence of Greg Inglis (injured), with Joel Reddy named to come onto the wing. Issac Luke (suspension) returns at hooker, while Luke Keary (suspension) is named to start at 5/8. His inclusion pushes John Sutton to the second row and Kyle Turner to lock for Chris McQueen (dropped). Glenn Stewart will start alongside Sutton, with Jason Clark relegated to the bench. Chris Grevsmuhl is named to come off the bench.
Broncos = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Rabbitohs 7 Draw 1 Broncos 14
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 4 Broncos 1
At Allianz Stadium = Rabbitohs 33% Broncos 66%
Form = Rabbitohs 1 loss – Broncos 1 loss

Verdict
With Inglis missing for the home team, the task of winning this match appears to be beyond them. That isn’t to rule them out of the contest completely; as the last time this happened, they were successful in upsetting the Cowboys in Townsville. The inclusion of Keary and Luke to their team will improve their performance from last week, although the Broncos have a point to prove. The fact that they couldn’t overcome the Roosters when they were hampered by injuries made a few teams view the Broncos as vulnerable. While the Rabbitohs are underdogs, they will believe there is a real chance that they can cause an upset. The Broncos will need to improve defensively on the edge to halt what the Rabbitohs throw their way. That is expected to occur and given the potential within their team, the Broncos should just scrape home in this match. The margin of victory will be tight though; the Rabbitohs are clinging to 4th spot and will want to send a message that even without Inglis, they are a capable team. Look for them to build as much pressure as possible on the Broncos but ultimately, the visitors should prevail.

Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.80

Make it a margin = Broncos 1-12 @ $2.75 – If the Broncos are to win as expected, it doesn’t look like it will get above 1 converted try. If that is the case, you can cover your bases and back the Broncos by a smaller margin.

Vulnerable edges = Corey Oates FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Oates has been firing lately and having his large from on the edge is a bonus. Throw in the fact that the Rabbitohs have struggled on the edges in recent weeks and there is a strong chance he will cross the line first.

Sea Eagles (9th) v Roosters (1st)

The Sea Eagles Finals aspirations took a major dive last week at the hands of the Eels. In a result that not too many people saw coming, the visitors upstaged their more fancied opponents to meant that they would have to win both of their remaining matches to have a chance of making the Finals and hope that other results would go their way. Geoff Toovey summed up the situation accurately by stating that his team didn’t deserve to be there on that effort. Their execution was poor throughout and even with mounting pressure; their attack did little to challenge defenders. The Roosters had no such issues executing, but may have a few tough weeks ahead of them courtesy of injuries. They showed grit and determination after losing JWH and Pearce in the first half. It also meant that they were reduced to 15 players, increasing the fatigue and pressure on the squad. The fact that they prevailed by 2-points will give them confidence that their defence can hold up under pressure. There was also the added reward of taking top spot on the competition ladder and possibly taking out the Minor Premiership for the third straight season.

Team News
Sea Eagles = Blake Leary is named to start at hooker for Matt Ballin (injured). Willie Mason (suspension) returns at prop, forcing Ligi Sao to move to the vacant lock position.
Panthers = Sam Moa (injury) is named to replace Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (injured) in the front row. Jackson Hastings has been promoted to the starting team at halfback to cover for Mitchell Pearce (injured), with Matt McIlwrick filling the vacant bench spot. Michael Jennings (suspended) is replaced by Mitch Aubusson, with Suaia Matagi being named on the bench.

History
Overall = Sea Eagles 15 Roosters 11
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 2 Roosters 3
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 66% Roosters 23%
Form = Sea Eagles 1 loss – Roosters 10 wins

Verdict
The Sea Eagles will be desperate to keep their Finals hopes alive and after last week, the Roosters may just find themselves up against a tough challenge. Manly were not up to standard last week, almost appearing as though they believed that the win was assured and all they had to do was turn up. You never like to believe that teams are “due” to lose but if there was ever a time when the Roosters would drop a game, it would be when they’re missing a few players, enduring a short back up and are playing on the road. If they dominate through the middle, things will be difficult for Manly, but that doesn’t appear as though it will happen without Pearce and JWH. Throw in the fact that the Sea Eagles are strengthened by the return of Mason and they appear capable of causing an upset. The Sea Eagles desperately need this wing and unless the Roosters surprise us and produce something special, an upset may be witnessed.

Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.10

Too close to call = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.75 – The Roosters are still reeling from a tough match last week and the Manly crowd will only make the atmosphere more hostile for the visitors. The Roosters are still good enough to win and if you are not worried about the result, choose this option and sit back having to support nothing else other than a close contest.

Super value = Sea Eagles 1-6 @ $5.50 – Plenty of value lies within this option, but with that comes increased risk. As mentioned several times above, this match is expected to be close and if you are looking for greater return on your investment, this is worth some consideration.

Eels (11th) v Sharks (5th)

The Eels sprung a major upset last Sunday, beating Manly on their home turf in horrendous conditions. It went a long way to demonstrating the potential that this team can have on their day, but also left fans asking where that level of execution has been all year. In saying that, it was more their opponents lack of execution that allowed victory, rather than their superior performance. The Sharks were able to bounce back against the Tigers and reinforced how they are beginning to peak at the right stage of the season. Doubt was surrounding their efforts after a loss to the Storm at home, but that was soon laid to rest as they never allowed their opponents into the contest. They are on the brink of breaking into the Top 4 and with an “easier” run home than most, many would think that 4th spot on the ladder is theirs to lose. It was most impressive to see them execute with authority and dominate another pack of forwards. It is a major strength of their that they will need to use to their advantage if they want to travel deep into September.

Team News
Eels = Tim Mannah (injury) is named to start the match in the front row, forcing Darcy Lussick back to the bench.
Sharks = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Eels 15 Sharks 12
Last 5 matches = Eels 4 Sharks 1
At Pirtek Stadium = Eels 61% Sharks 47%
Form = Eels 1 win – Sharks 1 win

Verdict
The Eels shocked most people last week with their efforts and they will need to build on that performance if they are even considering themselves as a chance here. The Sharks are proving themselves to be a quality football team at this late stage of the season and now have a chance to jump into the Top 4. That would be a dramatic rise up the table and it is no surprise that it has coincided with stability within their team. Just like last week, expect the Sharks to go about their business with little regard for their opponents. Once they gain full control of the match, there is no telling what score they can produce. The Eels will be spirited early though, evident through their recent efforts, but with just two weeks to go in the competition, maintaining that intensity is always going to be difficult. As for the margin, the Sharks will almost certainly win by more than a converted try, so take them to cover the line. Beyond that, they showed last week just what they are capable of, so expect confidence to still run high within their dressing room and they should be able to get home comfortably in this game.

Suggested Bet
Sharks -4.5 @ $1.90

Playing swimmingly = Sharks 13+ @ $3.10 – It’s time for the Eels to be put back in their place by a team that has a lot more quality than they do. The Sharks will want to continue to make a statement and strongly move into the Top 4.

Holme is where the heart is = Valentine Holmes FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – He has been electric on the edge for the Sharks and after scoring twice last week, he will fancy his agility and speed against his opponents.

Knights (14th) v Bulldogs (7th)

Many thought that the Eels win over the Sea Eagles was one of the upsets of the year, until the Knights conquered Melbourne on MNF. It was an unlikely result for the boys from Newcastle, but a major one nevertheless as it dragged them off the bottom of the competition ladder. With little to motivate this team, it was pleasing to see them carry out the match in this manner and provide departing players with a positive note to finish on. They still have a tough job ahead of them in order to avoid the spoon, however that will be driving them forward. The Bulldogs were also successful on the road, although their win against the Rabbitohs sent a message that they are beginning to find their best form. They hammered their opponents out of the match with brutal play, as the Rabbitohs were unable to physically match the Bulldogs in the early stages. Their lead was maintain until the end, although the team will be disappointed that they were unable to completely shut their opponents out of the match. They now have to focus on qualifying in the best position for the Finals, something that only winning matches will be able to take care of.

Team News
Knights = Beau Scott (injury) returns to the team in the back row, pushing Chris Houston back to the bench.
Bulldogs = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Knights 16 Draw 1 Bulldogs 13
Last 5 matches = Knights 2 Bulldogs 3
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 60% Bulldogs 31%
Form = Knights 2 wins – Bulldogs 3 wins

Verdict
The Knights have been a bogey team for the Bulldogs recently, with the visitors only managing to win 2 of their past 3 meetings. Heading to home to Newcastle on the back of a strong win against the Storm will give them increased confidence, but it is expected that the Bulldogs can rise above this. For starters, they are in a position whereby a win could dramatically improve their standing on the competition ladder. They demonstrated last week just how dominating they can be when they choose to control the middle of the field. Losing Lichaa was no great hurdle either, with Cook playing strongly at hooker. They Bulldogs will use that effort to go onto bigger things here. The short turnaround will hamper the home side towards the end of this match and attempting to halt the big and powerful Bulldogs pack will eventually wear them down.

Suggested Bet
Bulldogs -9.5 @ $1.90

Barking dogs = Bulldogs 13+ @ $2.30 – If the Bulldogs are going to cover the line, there is no limit to how many points they can score. The Knights played their grand final last week and towards the end of this match, they will find themselves struggling to match the might of their opponents.

B-line for Morris = Brett Morris FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Normally mistaken for his twin, Morris has been crucial to the success of the Bulldogs at the back. He is getting involved as much as possible and his increased involvement is making him a threat anywhere on the field.

Storm (6th) v Cowboys (3rd)

After their loss to the Knights on Monday, the Storm have a short backup to put a poor effort behind them. Craig Bellamy admitted after the match that it was one of the worst performances his side has put in this year and that based on that result, they did not deserve to even make the Finals. Despite everything they tried, the Storm were left without answers and in stark contrast to last week, appeared vulnerable heading towards the Finals. Perhaps it was a lack of mental concentration on their part, but whatever the answer, they will want to solve the problems as soon as possible. The Cowboys also looked in danger or losing to the Warriors, that was 13 minutes into the match where they were down 16-nil. From that point onwards, it was all one-way traffic for the visitors, as they racked up 50-points on a helpless opponent. They too were the victim of a horror run of injuries, with both James Tamou (neck) and Michael Morgan (ankle) potentially missing for the rest of the season. Those two players have been vital to the Cowboys success in 2015 and it will be a challenge trying to replace their contribution to this side. That task begins here, against a team that will be hungry to prove themselves after a poor result last week.

Team News
Storm = Unchanged.
Cowboys = Ray Thompson comes into the team to replace Michael Morgan (injured). Ben Hannant is named to start at prop for James Tamou (injured), while Gavin Cooper (injury) returns in the second row, pushing Scott Bolton back to the bench.

History
Overall = Storm 19 Cowboys 9
Last 5 matches = Storm 2 Cowboys 3
At SAAMI Park = Storm 73% Cowboys 50%
Form = Storm 1 loss – Cowboys 1 win

Verdict
While it will be tough for the Storm to backup from MNF, they remain at home whereas the Cowboys have this match on the back of a trip to NZ. This cannot be overlooked and on top of the players out with injuries, has contributed to them being outsiders for this match. While the pressure will be increased on Thurston, the Storm still have to execute on the day. They were unable to do this last Monday and that definitely sounded the alarm bells. The Cowboys are a greater chance than most people are giving them. The fact that players are missing are something that they are going to have to get use to as they make their Finals run; as chances are that they will be without those players for the rest of the season. While they have had their momentum halted in recent weeks, they are still a quality team. They are sitting where they are on the ladder because the way they execute their matches. The Storm will be out to make amends for their loss last week but that will not be enough. This game will be tight and like last week, the Saturday night game may just be the best on in the round.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys @ $2.15

Hedge your bets = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.80 – This match is going to be really tight and a preview of what is ahead of fans. With that in mind, this game may only be decided in the closing minutes. Consider this option, then that way you can sit back and cheer for nothing other than a converted try as the difference.

Tigers (16th) v Warriors (10th)

This game is hardly going to excite fans, but what it will do is provide a chance for one team to put last week’s horror effort behind them. The Tigers were completely out of their depth against the Sharks, who seemingly disregarded the fact that the Tigers still had some quality players within their team. It was again another sign that all is not well within the club, issues that were rightly silenced when they were winning. For the Warriors, their losing streak extended to 6-matches with their loss to the Cowboys. In their last home game for the year, they jumped to a 16-point lead; however they were unable to build on this from the 13th minute onwards. Again, several questions were being asked, most notably, how did this team that was well within the Top 8 fall out of form so dramatically in a number of weeks? That remains to be answered and like Taylor at the Tigers, their coach is under a mountain of pressure. Underachieving sides will only be tolerated for so long by administrators and with little to play for, the coaching staff and players may just find themselves performing for their futures for the next 80 minutes.

Team News
Tigers = Martin Taupau has been promoted from the bench to start at lock, swapping with Dene Halatau.
Warriors = Matt Allwood is named on the wing, while Sebastine Ikahihifo is named to start at prop for Jacob Lillyman (injured). Bodene Thompson will start at lock, with Sione Lousi relegated back to the bench.

History
Overall = Tigers 11 Warriors 13
Last 5 matches = Tigers 1 Warriors 4
At Campbelltown Stadium = Tigers 45% Warriors 50%
Form = Tigers 2 losses – Warriors 6 losses

Verdict
As the two sides scramble to salvage something from their season, it remains a mystery as to what will motivate either team. The Tigers have had yet another week of off-field issues that will impact their performance, while the Warriors have been reeling from their thrashing by the Cowboys last week. If the Warriors play like they did in the first 13-minutes, they should win this match easily but consistency has been absent this year. It is never an ideal situation to “hope” that a team will produce a good result but on a 6-game losing streak, there is a good chance that the Warriors have one more strong effort ahead of them. Facing the Bulldogs next week probably won’t be that opportunity, so this game is a genuine chance for them. The Tigers showed little promise last week and their week in the spotlight isn’t likely to get their mind off things. If anything, the recommendation would be to stay away from this match completely, but if you are looking to invest your money, go with the Warriors to win.

Suggested Bet
Warriors @ $2.85

Titans (15th) v Dragons (8th)

The Titans produced a surprising result last week, upsetting the Raiders who ventured up hoping to grab an easy scalp. That wasn’t to be the case, with the Titans exhibiting a performance that has been absent for majority of their matches in 2015. Their win also lifted them off the bottom of the ladder and while only slightly, they are away from the spoon for now. It could be their last win for the season, but hardly anything to be excited about as they still made 14 error. It was a different story for the Dragons, who are still clinging onto 8th spot following a win over the Panthers. It was a dour effort that looked in danger right up until the last 10 minutes, where they were able to kick ahead. It would hardly excite or please their fans but it does give hope that they can push forward to the Finals. They can breath easier with several results going their way; nevertheless, winning would put to rest any fears that are held about them missing out on the Finals altogether. The Dragons need to take that approach into this match, disregarding their opponents standing on the ladder and execute to a level that will not allow them any chance of victory.

Team News
Titans = Greg Bird (injured) has been replaced at 5/8 by Daniel Mortimer, with Beau Falloon named to start at hooker and Kierran Moseley coming onto the bench. Lachlan Burr comes into the starting side in the second row for Ryan James (suspended).
Dragons = Jason Nightingale (injury) returns on the wing, with Joel Thompson (suspension) also back in the back row for Jake Marketo (suspended).

History
Overall = Titans 4 Dragons 10
Last 5 matches = Titans 2 Dragons 3
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 50% Dragons 67%
Form = Titans 1 win – Dragons 1 win

Verdict
This match means a lot more to the Dragons than it does the Titans. If they are serious about making a run towards the Finals and building momentum, this is a match that they have to win. The Titans were impressive last week, but they opponents hardly offered resistance and the Dragons will pose a whole new threat altogether. While they were dour against the Panthers, they still won the match. Having Marshall back in their team after a week where he regained match fitness will also assist them. The Titans peaked last week and the decision in this match comes down to how much the Dragons will win by. They haven’t been a team this year that has scored a lot of points on opponents, but they can kick clear when needed. One thing is for sure, they will be able to win by more than a converted try; the same margin that is being offered in most line markets. If their defence holds like it has for majority of the year, the fact that the Titans are unable to score points could mean that the gap between the visitors and their opponents will be more than two converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Dragons 13+ @ $2.50

Breathing fire = Dragons 13-18 @ $5.50 – It would be surprising to see the Dragons win by more than 3 converted tries. With that in mind, they should fall within this range and give you a nice return for your investment. Of course, that is providing the Titans play like they did last week but they will also be limited in attack.

Raiders (12th) v Panthers (13th)

The Raiders headed north to the Gold Coast last week, only to return disappointed with their efforts. It was a scrappy and below-par performance against a team that had appeared to produce a lot worse than what they have so far this season. Now, with just two weeks to go in their season, they face yet another team that has little to play for. If last week is anything to go by, the last two weeks are going to be a real test for the Raiders. The Panthers were not too much better, but their effort against the Dragons demonstrated that despite a large injury toll, they are still focusing on performing to the best of their ability each week. Nevertheless, they were unable to grab a win in a match that had fans of the game considering switching off well before the fulltime whistle. The same can be said for this match and with not much to play for, either side has to focus on finishing the year off strongly and building towards next year.

Team News
Raiders = Brenko Lee is named to start in the centres for Joey Leilua (suspended).
Panthers = Isaah Yeo shifts to lock for Elijah Taylor (injured), forcing Apisai Koroisau to 5/8 and James Segeyaro coming into the starting team at hooker. Sika Manu is relegated to the bench, replaced by Tyrone Peachey is the starting side.

History
Overall = Raiders 17 Panthers 17
Last 5 matches = Raiders 2 Panthers 3
At GIO Stadium = Raiders 26% Panthers 55%
Form = Raiders 4 losses – Panthers 1 loss

Verdict
Both sides are going to struggle for motivation in this match but the Panthers demonstrated last week that they perhaps have a little more pride within their side at this late stage of the season. The Raiders had a superior team last week against the Titans but were unable to capitalise. The fact that they have finished the season poorly has taken plenty of confidence away from this young side. There is also several experienced players missing that could lift them out of this flunk but they too are absent. The Panthers hold that factor over there opponents here, not to mention the fact that the Raiders have an 18% winning record on home turf this year. Nevertheless, the Panthers have exactly the same record on the road and have disappointed in recent weeks away from home. Much like the “Tigers v Warriors” game, this is almost a match that you should stay away from. However if you must have a flutter on this game, I would recommend taking the Panthers with the start. Experience counts for a lot in this league and at the end of the season, it will motivate the younger players to reach their best. In terms of tipping, I would lean the way of the visitors but don’t invest too much on this contest.

Suggested Bet
Panthers +5.5 @ $1.90

Good luck!
Scooby