Broncos (1st) v Bulldogs (8th)

The competition leaders were given a large reality check last week in the way of a 30-point drubbing to Manly. Avoiding Brookvale Oval appeared to be a good setting for the Broncos but their defence appeared vulnerable when under pressure; as their opponents were great at isolating their weaknesses. Compounding their problems, their halves were unable to create anything in attacked and for a rare time this season, looked like a flaw in their team. To put a positive spin on it, it was the loss that this team needed as they were heading towards the Finals; however it did bring the second-placed Cowboys level on the competition ladder. No doubt it will have a positive effect and only make them hungrier for success. The same was expected of the Bulldogs last week but they were unable to overcome the might of the Roosters pack to prevail in a physical contest. They let their opponents jump to a 22-nil lead before they scored their first points. They were able to claw their way back into the contest, but the Roosters prevailed in the end by 10-points. That takes their losing streak to 2-matches but worse still, they are now in danger of slipping out of the Top 8, with only a superior points difference keeping them in. It has been a trend of theirs in recent weeks to allow their opponents to streak to a lead and they will need to avoid that here. Otherwise, the more experienced and dangerous Broncos team will make them pay for their mistakes. These two sides only met just over a month ago and each team will have a strong idea of how to overcome their opponents in a match that means so much to both teams.

Team News
Broncos = Unchanged, but expectations around that Maranta will make way for Corey Oates.
Bulldogs = Aiden Tolman (injury) is back at prop, forcing David Klemmer back to the bench. Also in the pack, Frank Pritchard (injury) is named to start in the second row, forcing Shaun Lane back to the bench. He is expected to come back into the team with the removal of Greg Eastwood (suspended). Curtis Rona (injury) is also named to return, forcing Corey Thompson (19th) back to the bench alongside Lloyd Perrett (18th) and David Fualalo (20th).

History
Overall = Broncos 19 Draw 1 Bulldogs 13
Last 5 matches = Broncos 4 Bulldogs 1
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 59% Bulldogs 44%
Form = Broncos 1 loss – Bulldogs 2 losses

Verdict
We saw the first signs in a long time last week that the Broncos can be brought down. Considering that they were not at their best the last time they beat the Bulldogs, the task ahead of their opponents is growing by the day. The loss of Eastwood hurts them further and it will not be easy to upset the Broncos on home turf or after a disappointing loss. However sometimes one loss can halt a teams momentum in a large way. The Bulldogs still consider themselves a strong chance of competing in this match and it will be a lot closer than most are anticipating. Their flaws against the Roosters were due to a heavy sway of possession against them and they will have to avoid a similar situation here. In reality, the Broncos are sitting at the top of the competition for a reason and the Bulldogs will need to lift to their level if they are aiming to extend their run into the Finals. In saying that, the Broncos have too many attacking weapons for the visitors to halt over 80 minutes. As for the margin of victory, they will have to work for every point and may only just scrape home.

Suggested Bet
Broncos 1-12 @ $2.75

Outsiders delight = Corey Oates FTS and/or LTS @ $13 – With news around that Oates will come into the team for the Broncos leading try scorer, Lachlan Maranta, now is the time to cash in on him scoring first. Oates is equal second on the Broncos list and will always be an attacking threat on the edge either in the air or with the ball in hand.

Sea Eagles (11th) v Rabbitohs (4th)

Flying high and feeling confident after last Saturday nights victory over the Broncos, the Sea Eagles will return to Brookvale Oval for the first time since the news of Geoff Toovey’s sacking and their “player cleanout” was published. Their win last week showed class and poise from a team that has been lacking both of those factors in 2015. More importantly, it reignited hope that they would push for a spot in the Finals; something that will need to be achieved by winning majority, if not all, of their remaining matches. Teams are again wary of their potential and the Rabbitohs will run out knowing that they will face a completely different team to the one they beat 20-8 in Round 16. For the visitors, they have a short turnaround to contend with after featuring against the Panthers on Sunday. While they got the job done, it was a lot closer than most people were expecting. Credit has to go to their opponents for the way they played, but the Rabbitohs also executed their game plan well and despite not appearing to be as good as last year, they were able to continually roll over the advantage line. That effort was against a team that was understrength and they will have a tougher time versus a higher quality opponent. Nevertheless, they’re the defending Premiers who are in a very similar situation to 2014; it just remains to be seen whether or not they have the potential to go on with it this year.

Team News
Sea Eagles = Steve Matai (concussion) is named to return in the centres, forcing Tom Trbojevic back to the 20s and Peta Hiku back to the wing.
Rabbitohs = Unchanged, but Kyle Turner is named but Jason Clark is also there as 18th man. Chris Grevsmuhl is also in doubt, with new recruit, Paul Carter, the likely replacement.

History
Overall = Sea Eagles 17 Rabbitohs 12
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 2 Rabbitohs 3
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 66% Rabbitohs 31%
Form = Sea Eagles 2 wins – Rabbitohs 3 wins

Verdict
After their efforts last week, it would take a brave person to write off the chances of the Sea Eagles at Brookvale Oval. Although, once they had momentum with them for majority of that match and once behind, the Broncos offered little resistance. Similar performances against the Warriors and Broncos in consecutive weeks have changed the opinion of this team and many consider them a strong chance here. That has a lot to do with their previous efforts, as well as the way Rabbitohs struggled last week. Playing with one less player after Turner went off against a big team like the Panthers took its toll but they were always in control. They demonstrated character that will serve them well in this match and their forwards have what it takes in order to bring down their opponents. The Broncos simply were not up for the contest last week and although the Rabbitohs are vulnerable with a short turn around, they should still be able to prevail. Rather than making a call on either team to win, the best investment appears to be suggesting that this match with be tight and decided by less than a converted try.

Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.80

By the skin of their teeth = Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3 – If the Rabbitohs do prevail, the scoreboard will be close. If you are of the same train of thought and believe that they can win, then consider this option to added value to your investment.

Warriors (9th) v Dragons (7th)

The Warriors were handed another loss last week and with it a major dent to their Finals chances. The loss to the Sharks has forced them out of the Top 8, albeit on point’s difference but they still have a chance of turning that around. It will be difficult without Shaun Johnson, as they ventured into a run towards the Finals without him last week. It wasn’t all bad news for the Warriors, as they were positive for majority of the match and made the Sharks work hard for their win. If anything, the fact that they were not relying on one player made them a more complete team on the field. Thankfully they remain at home for this match but after this, they will spend 3 of the last 4 weeks on the road; meaning that they will need to make the most of a match against the resurgent Dragons. The visitors broke a 7-game losing streak last week with a strong performance against the Knights. It was also the first time they had cracked 40-points this season and aside from a 20-minute period where they allowed the Knights to take control of the match, they were the dominant team. Even more pleasing, was the execution and freedom that the halves demonstrated. It reminded the competition just what they’re capable of producing when they’re playing with confident. With that win, they’ve moved back into the Top 8 and they will sense a chance to continue that form here and mirror their result from Round 7 this year.

Team News
Warriors = Jonathan Wright comes back into the team to cover for Konrad Hurrell (dropped) in the centres. Dominique Peyroux is named as 18th man.
Dragons = Trent Merrin (suspension) returns to the bench, forcing Jake Marketo back to 18th man. Ben Creagh comes back into the starting side for Will Matthews, who returns to the bench. Kiti Glymin is named on the wing at the expense of Jason Nightingale (injured).

History
Overall = Warriors 4 Dragons 18
Last 5 matches = Warriors 0 Dragons 5
At Westpac Stadium = Never played at the ground
Form = Warriors 3 losses – Dragons 1 win

Verdict
The Warriors record against the Dragons in their past 10 outing is abysmal; winning just one match. That will give the visitors hope that they can take their winning form across to NZ and make the most of it. The reduced time to prepare for this game isn’t ideal, but winning last week will change the attitude completely for the Dragons and should remove that factor altogether. With the Warriors missing a host of players, the Dragons are a better chance of winning this game. They have a stronger set of forwards that are working positively to establish a platform for Widdop and Marshall to work off. It is no surprise to see the improved form of their halves coincide with the forwards dominating. As it stands, the Warriors will need to bring the same intensity that they did last week and remain patient. Then again, that has never been a strong point of the Warriors within their 20-year history. The margin of victory in favour of the visitors is the most difficult decision, as there is no certainty of which Warriors team will show up. Considering that and the fact that confidence isn’t high in this result, the safest option of getting a return is taking the visitors to win by more than 2-points.

Suggested Bet
Dragons -1.5 @ $1.85

Sharks (5th) v Cowboys (2nd)

Flying high and pushing for a spot in the Top 4, the Sharks are a stark contrast to the team that was running out for games at the beginning of the season. There were not too many people around that expected them to be in this position but now that they are, it seems as though beating them in a match will take a lot of effort. After 3 successful road matches, they return home and will face another tough test. Each time they have been expected to fall though, they have produced and there is no reason why they will not be in with a chance of winning here. The Cowboys head south after a strong win against the Raiders, a game that proved that they are capable of playing with control and measure. In saying that, it was disappointing to see them give another “start” to an opponent and have to chase points. Towards the business end of the season, playing like that will be their downfall and quality teams will not give as many chances to get back into a match as the Raiders did last week. On a positive note, their spine looked stronger than it ever has and if opponents want to beat the Cowboys, they will have to focus on shutting down this area of their play, as well as the dominant forward movements.

Team News
Sharks = Unchanged.
Cowboys = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Sharks 19 Cowboys 13
Last 5 matches = Sharks 2 Cowboys 3
At Remondis Stadium = Sharks 54% Cowboys 38%
Form = Sharks 4 wins – Cowboys 4 wins

Verdict
The Sharks were the team that halted the Cowboys winning streak back in Round 16 and they have improved in leaps and bounds since then. So too have the Cowboys who were without JT the last time they met. His inclusion here will boost the visitors; as they remind fans how they are a different team on the road compared to previous years. The Sharks have form in recent matches, but they are due for a dip in form. The thinking around this is focussed on the fact that they have endured a 3-game road trip, including one game in NZ. Fatigue will be building on their squad and up against a superior opponent; they are expected to crack. That doesn’t mean that they will be embarrassed out of the match, just that they will struggle to win. The Sharks still have a grinding nature about their games that drags their opponents down to their level but the Cowboys will have to rise above that. If they do, winning is almost assured, albeit by a smaller margin than majority of their victories this year.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.80

Tri-ing for more = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.80 – It is no secret that the Sharks enjoy a grinding contest. With the margin of victory expected to be small, go for the chance that there could be an upset or the visitors win by less than a converted try. At this level, the Sharks know exactly how to execute their game plan.

Get in line = Kane Linnett FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – The one area where the Sharks are still vulnerable is their centres. Neither Beale or Leutele have been pressured in recent weeks, but Paul Green will know what is on offer out wide. Linnett is always a threat and Thurston will be wary of where he is when attacking to the left.

Eels (13th) v Panthers (12th)

The Eels would have relished the chance to return home after a trip to Townsville and the Gold Coast in successive weeks. However, lack of foresight to some extent has resulted in their “home” match being taken to Darwin. On their travels, they were unable to muster much more than a whimper against their opponents, scoring an average of just 7.3 points, while conceding 32.6. All is not well and while scoring more points last week than the previous two combined, they were still flat in attack lacking creativity and vulnerable in defence. The same cannot be said for the Panthers, who turned in a spirited effort against the Rabbitohs. Despite missing several key players, they streaked ahead to a 12-nil lead, only to be run down. Scoring late in the match, they were in with a chance of stealing victory but it wasn’t to be. It has been a lean run for the Panthers, coinciding with their slide down the table, they will need several things to go their way if they are to make the Finals. Still, they will sense that this game is an opportunity to get back on track against a team that is struggling more than they are. The traditional rivalry between the two sides is somewhat removed because of the venue, but that does nothing to detract away from how important a win would be to team moral at this stage of the season.

Team News
Eels = Will Hopoate and Brad Takairangi (both injury) return to the team in the centres. Corey Norman (injury) also comes back into the team at 5/8, pushing Joseph Paulo to 18th man.
Panthers = Waqa Blake shifts to the wing for Robert Jennings (injured), with Lewis Brown named in the centres. This sees Bryce Cartwright named in the back row and Apisai Koroisau is named on the bench.

History
Overall = Eels 17 Panthers 15
Last 5 matches = Eels 2 Panthers 3
At TIO Stadium = Eels 100% Panthers 100% (never played each other here)
Form = Eels Panthers

Verdict
The Eels have barely shown any spirit in recent efforts and will hardly want to travel a long distance for this match. They are only playing for pride, compared with the Panthers who are still in with an outside chance of making the Top 8. Last week, they threw a lot of challenges the Rabbitohs way and a lesser team would have cracked. Even without a full-strength team, they are prepared to throw caution into the wind and back their ability. This spells trouble for the Eels, who have had a host of difficulties trying to stop their opponents recently. Their defensive structure has disbanded them and there is a distant lack of application in this area. Furthermore, their attack is flat, uncreative and dull and the points they scored against the Titans only masked the real problems. The Panthers are a step up again and while they too have a tough task of backing up from Sunday and battling travel, they have much more to play for. Confidence and belief returned to their team last week and they will sense an opportunity to pile plenty of points on the Eels and put on a show for the locals.

Suggested Bet
Panthers 13+ @ $3.25

Storm (6th) v Titans (14th)

The Storms hopes of finishing inside the Top 4 were dealt a major blow last week as they suffered a loss to the Tigers on the road. It was arguably the worst performance the Storm have displayed in recent memory and left their coach, Craig Bellamy, unable to provide answers or reasons for it. It is not panic stations just yet and some credit has to go to their opponents for the way they played. They will be aiming to avoid the same occurring here, albeit against a team ranked alongside the Tigers on the ladder. The Titans hit the road with a win under their belt but a short turn around from MNF. They played a more positive brand of football against the Eels and confidence was evident in their attacking movements. It is no surprise to also see their improved form coincide with the impressive performance of their halves. One win will hardly erase the memories of their efforts so far in 2015, nor their standing on the competition ladder. Therefore it is essential for their confidence that they continue on their winning ways. Perhaps the Storm are vulnerable after a loss and the Titans need to focus on dominating them in the forwards first to create similar room for their halves and outside backs to work off.

Team News
Storm = Tim Glasby is moved into the starting side, with Felise Kaufusi moving back to the bench.
Titans = Nate Myles (injury) returns to the starting team at prop, pushing Eddy Pettybourne back to the bench alongside Lachlan Burr (18th) and Daniel Mortimer (19th).

History
Overall = Storm 8 Titans 5
Last 5 matches = Storm 3 Titans 2
At AAMI Stadium = Storm 73% Titans 25%
Form = Storm 1 loss – Titans 1 win

Verdict
The Titans couldn’t have faced the Storm at a worse time; with the boys form Melbourne returning home from a shock loss. While the damage caused to their overall Finals aspirations at this stage of the season is minor, they will want to cease talk that they are potentially vulnerable with a dominating performance and avoid consecutive losses to teams outside the 8 (and out of Finals contention!). The Titans will be spirited, but sitting 14th on the competition ladder and only playing for pride will only motivate a team to some extent. If the Storm are serious about pushing their case, they will want to shut the Titans out of this match well and truly before HT. As the odds are weighed heavily in favour of the home side, finding value is proving to be a difficult task. Nevertheless, the Storm have averaged to win matches at home by 16.2 points in 2015 and the Titans will have a difficult time trying to stop them, considering they leaked points last week against the Eels. It will not be a complete blowout, with the Storm still dusting off a few cobwebs as the Titans look to re-establish their halves combination, but winning for the visitors is not achievable at this stage of their season.

Suggested Bet
Storm 13-18 @ $4.50

Fijian Flyer = Marika Koroibete FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – The odds aren’t as high as they normally are, but this due to Koroibete’s attacking threat on the wing. He scored first for the Storm last week and will be hard to stop again for the Titans in this match.

Knights (16th) v Roosters (3rd)

Just when things were looking up for the Knights, they came crashing back to reality with a thumping loss at the hands of the Dragons. Apart from a positive period prior to HT, there was little to be excited about. It was the teams first game with Danny Buderus in charge and he experienced the full range of emotions that an NRL goes through each week. There appeared to be a greater purpose to the Knights attack, while their attitude to defence was also improved. After their match last Friday, the Roosters will relish the extra time off ahead of They were able to fight back late against the Bulldogs to snatch their ___-win; but that looked under threat with time counting down on the clock. While they were victorious, they will be disappointed with the manner in which they let their opponents back into the match after streaking to a 22-nil lead inside the first 25 minutes. Even though they remain in 3rd place on the ladder, they are almost everyone’s tip to feature in the decider come October. Their forwards are still looking unstoppable although at times against the Bulldogs, the entire team looked vulnerable; most notably the lack of intensity when certain players left the field for a rest. It isn’t anything to be worried about at this stage and can be easily fixed; either way the Knights are going to have a difficult time trying to halt their opponents in this match.

Team News
Knights = Tariq Sims (injury) is named to start in the back row, moving Chris Houston back to the bench alongisde David Fa’alogo (injury) who is also named to return.
Roosters = Shaun Kenny-Dowall (rested) is named to return on the wing for Brendan Elliot. Isaac Lui comes into the team on the bench to replace Sam Moa (injured).

History
Overall = Knights 12 Roosters 21
Last 5 matches = Knights 1 Roosters 4
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 60% Roosters 71%
Form = Knights 2 wins – Roosters 7 wins

Verdict
With the form of the two teams, this game is not a matter of who wins, but how much the Roosters win by. Their form this season has been outstanding and they outmuscled the Bulldogs last week. Any weight of possession their way in matches allows them to get on the front foot and dominate. The Knights offered little resistance against the Dragons last week and the Roosters are leaps and bounds ahead of them. There is one factor that needs to be considered; the Knights will motivated further after yet another week with Buderus at the helm, although that will only do so much for them. As for the margin, in a match where one-way traffic is expected, don’t be surprised if you see the Roosters take their foot off the pedal a little. If they get in front, they may mentally switch off and remove key players from the field to give them a rest. This means that a complete blowout may be avoid, nevertheless the Roosters will still record a dominating win.

Suggested Bet
Roosters – 16.5 @ $1.90

The great divide = Roosters 21-30 points (winning margin) @ $4.50 – If you greater return for your investment, then consider this option. As stated above, it would be surprising to see a complete blowout on the scoreboard and the Knights should keep things modest enough to boost their confidence against a leading team.

Happy return = SKD FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – This is his first game back since a lay-off following an off field issue. His head may not yet be back to an ideal place, but prior to leaving he was dominant on the right edge. Expect more of the same and the best way to get his mind away from other issues is to dominate on the field.

Raiders (10th) v Tigers (15th)

The Raiders let go of another ideal opportunity to claw their way back into the Top 8 against the Cowboys, allowing their opponents back into the match after racing to an 18-nil lead. That was a big statement from the visitors and fans were beginning to see another upset on the cards. They were unable to maintain that intensity though, with their opponents demonstrating the level that the Raiders need to match in order to be considered as contenders. The Tigers head into this game with an improved level of confidence, following an upset win over the Storm at Leichhardt Oval. It was a win that has been a long time in the making and the level of pleasure on the player’s faces was evident. While they are still confined to the bottom of the competition ladder, hope is around that they can improve on that effort and avoid the wooden spoon. They also have further motivation, as it was a loss to the Raiders on home soil earlier in the season that began their season spiralling out of control. With the Raiders pushing to stay alive in the Finals race, they will want to overturn their horror home record in 2015 and use the expected cold conditions to their advantage.

Team News
Raiders = Sisa Waqa (injury) returns on the wing in place of Edrick Lee (suspended). Glen Butriss is the new face at hooker replacing Josh Hodgson (injured), while Jarrad Kennedy is named to start in the back row. Mitchell Barnett is named on the bench to replace Sia Soliola (injured).
Tigers = Brenden Santi comes onto the bench, with Manaia Cherrington named as 18th man.

History
Overall = Raiders 12 Tigers 17
Last 5 matches = Raiders 2 Tigers 3
Form = Raiders 1 loss – Tigers 1 win

Verdict
Travelling down to Canberra to play on a cold, Monday night is never going to be enticing to anyone. The Raiders should be accustomed to the conditions and that could spell trouble for the Tigers. However, the Raiders have an terrible record at home this year and the Tigers will head into this match full of confidence. There is already talk circulating that last week was the making of their halves. Fact is though; they couldn’t have won that game without Tedesco. If he is firing, the Tigers are going to be difficult to stop. Once they got rolling, the Storm were unable to disrupt their momentum. Then again, that was only one match where the Tigers ignited hope whereas the Raiders have proven several times this season that they are a difficult team to outscore. The Tigers may need more than just form of one key player and a bit of luck to get them over the line in this match. With that in mind, the Raiders should be able to re-establish themselves at home and prove that Canberra is again, a difficult place to win at. As for the margin, the Tigers hardly have the defensive structure to halt their opponents. With that in mind, expect the Raiders to comfortably win this game by more than 2 converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Raiders 13+ @ $2.70

Time to stand up = Joseph Leilua FTS and/or LTS @ $13 – For 3 weeks now, Leilua has been kept quiet, unable to cross the line. It is very rare that he can be kept out of a game for that long and expect the Raiders to get the ball to him as much as possible. The Tigers centres will have to be on guard but if not, Leilua may have more freedom than he imagined.

Good luck!
Scooby