Roosters (3rd) v Bulldogs (7th)

The Roosters continued their dominating ways against the Tigers last Friday, although many thought that the margin between the two sides would’ve been much larger. The visitors did enough in that match, proving at times how clinical they can be. Looking back, they didn’t need to do much more, as they were always in control of the outcome. The Bulldogs experienced a different result however, losing a match that they were expected to win easily. Hopes were high as they headed back to Belmore, but the Sharks, in a dour match, ambushed them. They were dragged down to their opponents level and failed to use any of their strengths that were beneficial to them in previous matches. All of a sudden, they looked vulnerable and teams will begin to figure out how to overcome their massive pack of forwards. Pressure is now on their entire squad to find consistency, otherwise they risk losing touch with the superior teams in the competition. They will be egger to bounce back as quickly as possible, although the challenge ahead of them in one of the largest they will face this season. The Roosters are firming each week as potential Grand Finalists and if the Bulldogs harbour aspirations of a similar fate, they must be up to the level that their opponents have set.

Team News
Roosters = Unchanged, aside from Kane Evans (16th), Matt McIlwrick and Suaia Matagi coming onto an extended bench. Jackson Hastings shifts to 18th man.
Bulldogs = Moses Mbye comes into the team to replace Josh Reynolds (injured & suspended) at 5/8. Corey Thompson (18th) and Danny Fualalo (19th) are also added to the team.

History
Overall = Roosters 14 Bulldogs 19
Last 5 matches = Roosters 4 Bulldogs 1
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 63% Bulldogs 56%
Form = Roosters 6 wins – Bulldogs 1 loss

Verdict
Momentum and form are with the Roosters in this match, making them strong favourites. However, this match is going to be a lot closer than the bookmakers are suggesting. While he has a positive influence on the team majority of the time, the loss of Josh Reynolds isn’t a major one; Moses Mbye is more than capable of stepping up to the mark and arguably offers more. If the Bulldogs forwards can find their feet early on and take the match to the powerful Roosters pack, it may pressure their halves into handling and tactical errors. That will bring the visitors firmly into the match. The Roosters will still need to work for the win, but the Bulldogs are in with a chance of performing strongly. It is rare that they have consecutive poor performances, especially this close to the Finals. The Roosters should still be the superior team, but do not be shocked if there is an upset. This game is going to be very tight; with the more dominant forward pack capturing enough impetus to grab a win.

Suggested Bet
Bulldogs +8.5 @ $1.90

Home to Roost = Roosters 1-12 @ $2.75 – The Roosters have only lost twice this season at home and with a 75% win record in 2015 at Allianz Stadium, they look difficult to overcome. With that in mind, the winning margin should still be fairly narrow and that points to this match staying within 2 converted tries.

Tigers (16th) v Storm (5th)

Yet again, the Tigers were comprehensively beaten without offering much resistance. It has been a common theme in their performances recently, confining them to the bottom of the competition ladder. Time is running out for them to avoid the dreaded “wooden spoon”, yet going on their recent efforts it is probably deserved. Having younger, inexperienced players isn’t helping their cause and it is not going to be beneficial to their future development. The Storm will come into this match with a sense that they can extend their winning streak to 3. They were successful last week over the Dragons, in a match that was shaping up as a dangerous one for them. They never let the Dragons into the match, proving that with Cronk back at halfback, they’re a genuine threat. It was always expected to be difficult without Slater at the back, but Cameron Munster is complementing the team positively. They are still in touch with the Top 4, just 2-points away and they will want to push their case to have a possible “second chance” in the Finals. This is a match that they’ll want to win with authority and extend their points difference in case that becomes a deciding factor in coming weeks.

Team News
Tigers = Robbie Farrah (injury) comes back at hooker, allowing Dene Halatau to move to the second row for Chris Lawrence (injured). Sauaso Sue comes into the team at lock for Martin Taupau (suspended), while Keith Galloway will start at prop and Ava Seumanufagai returns to the bench.
Storm = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Tigers 9 Storm 16
Last 5 matches = Tigers 2 Storm 3
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 59% Storm 33%
Form = Tigers 5 losses – Storm 2 wins

Verdict
Somehow, the Tigers have not blown out in betting markets. Perhaps this is a sign of the Storms horrible record at the traditional ground of the Tigers or the impending return of Farrah. Although aside from that, this game is a match between two sides at opposite ends of the competition ladder. Even with a trip to NZ to contend with on top of a short turn around, the Storm are facing a team that has been outscored 202-78 in their past 6 matches, 4 of which were at home (albeit one at Leichhardt). They were positive early against the Roosters last week, but with the Storm aiming to push for a spot in the Top 4, expect them to put their opponents to the sword as the Tigers leak too many points. Last week, the Dragons showed resolute defence, but that was no issue for the Storm in the end. Cooper Cronk is controlling his team well and as they grow in confidence elsewhere they will be too much for the team sitting at the bottom of the competition ladder to handle.

Suggested Bet
Storm 13+ @ $2.40

Storming to victory = Storm 19+ @ $3.60 – Plenty of value on offer when you consider the points difference of the Tigers in recent matches. Furthermore, the Storm have averaged a 30-point winning margin in their past two matches against teams that are defensively superior to the Tigers in 2015.

The great divide = Will Chambers FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Kevin Naiqama was caught horribly out of position last week and that is expected to continue this week. Chambers form in 2015 has been excellent, only improving since the Origin period. Cronk will be wary of his attacking ability and the Storm will want to get the ball to him as much as possible.

Warriors (8th) v Sharks (6th)

The Warriors let a golden opportunity slip through their grasp last week, comprehensively beaten by the Sea Eagles. Things fell apart for them once Shaun Johnson went off the field with an injury, although by their coach’s admission, it should not have been an issue. They were still capable of winning with a superior team and that loss has left them in 8th spot on the ladder. Just 2-points ahead of 9th, they are in dangerous territory of missing the Finals altogether. With Johnson out for the remainder of the season, they need to learn to win without him. The Sharks will have little time to reflect on their heroic efforts against the Bulldogs, with a very short turn around and a trip to NZ to contend with. Their win has moved them up to 6th, but such is the tightness of the ladder, they can easily slip down with several losses. Two of their players have been in the headlines this week, although a siege mentality is nothing new to the Sharks, especially considering all that they have been through in the past two years. Even without those players in their team, they are still a dangerous outfit with several players holding valuable experience. They have also proven that they can win close contests, experiencing two similar matches in recent weeks. Challenges continue to come the Sharks way but they are meeting each one with motivation and this contest will be no different.

Team News
Warriors = Tuimoala Lolohea is named at halfback for Shaun Johnson (injured), with Konrad Hurrell coming into the team at centre. Ken Maumalo and Manu Vatuvei come onto the wing for Glen Fisiiahi and Jonathan Wright (both dropped). Albert Veve comes into the starting side at prop for Bodene Thompson (injured), with Ben Matulino shifting to the back row and Sam Lisone onto the bench. Simon Mannering also moves to the back row, while Sebastine Ikahihifo shifting to lock. Sione Lousi and Charlie Gubb come onto the bench. Ryan Hoffman could be a late inclusion to the team.
Sharks = Anthony Tupou (injury) returns to replace Luke Lewis (injured) in the back row. Chris Heighington replaces Andrew Fifita (NRL imposed banned) in the starting side, while Tinirau Arona coming onto the bench.

History
Overall = Warriors 14 Sharks 16
Last 5 matches = Warriors 2 Sharks 3
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 59% Sharks 38%
Form = Warriors 2 losses – Sharks 3 wins

Verdict
The Warriors have their backs to the wall in this match without Shaun Johnson in their side but are slight favourites ahead of the Sharks. The visitor’s poor record in NZ isn’t ideal, but they have proven plenty of fans wrong in their past 3 matches. This has given them a newfound confidence heading towards the Finals and they are a dangerous team to face. Throw in the fact that not only are the Warriors missing their creative spark, but also several big forwards that generally roll over the advantage line continually. Lolohea will offer unpredictability, but unless the forwards are controlling the middle, what he offers will matter little. Expect the scoring between the two sides to be tight and the Sharks will be made to work very hard for their victory. Their experience should get them through though; with that factor proving vital in their latest games. The Warriors will offer resistance throughout majority of this match, but the Sharks will prevail by a very narrow margin when the final whistle sounds.

Suggested Bet
Sharks @ $2

Scraping home = Sharks 1-12 @ $3.25 – If the Sharks are going to win, it will be by a narrow margin. The only concern with this option is that if you select it, you bring into account the chance that a golden point victory would make you lose your bet. If you believe they can avoid that, then there is plenty of value on offer here.

The beast is back! = Manu Vatuvei FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – His try scoring record throughout his career is impressive to say the least, but at home it goes to another level. Without Johnson, the Warriors will need a leader in attack. Vatuvei is a veteran of the team and although he is out wide, he will lead from the front every time he gets the ball.

Cowboys (2nd) v Raiders (9th)

The Cowboys are coming off a “training run” against the Eels on MNF, finishing strongly to beat their opponents 46-4. They flexed their muscles in the match and it would’ve been pleasing for them to execute this way in this game. The Eels were gallant early, but once the Cowboys gained enough momentum, they withdrew from the contest. They remain in second position and are waiting for the Broncos to slip up for a chance to take their billing at the top of the competition. Several of the Cowboys players were in the spotlight early on in the week relating to dodgy third party deals, but that was put to bed soon after the story broke. The Raiders have their second consecutive match on the road, heading north hoping to upset their opponent’s momentum. They will also have increased confidence after yet another win away from home; this time it was against the Panthers. They head into this game in 9th position and are relying on a several results to go their way in closing weeks to give them a fighting chance. Whether or not that will be enough remains to be seen, but the only thing they can control is their own performance each week. They also will be out to make up for the loss that they suffered against the Cowboys in Round 15, when the Cowboys were vulnerable during the Origin period. Missing several players, they will need to lift to a level beyond the one that they produced last week. It will be a test for them though, with the Cowboys earning their standing at the top of the competition ladder with some impressive play in 2015.

Team News
Cowboys = Unchanged.
Raiders = Paul Vaughan comes into the starting side for Frank-Paul Nuuausala, who returns to the bench.

History
Overall = Cowboys 15 Raiders 16
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 3 Raiders 2
At 1300 Smile Stadium = Cowboys 82% Raiders 0%
Form = Cowboys 3 wins – Raiders 1 win

Verdict
The Cowboys are going from strength to strength this year and yet, their best still appears to be ahead of them. They were only in second gear last week and stayed their once their opponents switched off. The Raiders will be confident, but they will need more than that to crack their opponents. The Cowboys have lifted to another level at home this season but surprisingly have suffered 2 more losses here compared to on the road. The key to the Cowboys winning this match will be their attack and how well they shut down the Raiders attacking options. They are still one of the most efficient attacking teams in the competition and their opponents will be wary of this. Thankfully, in their past 5 matches they have scored an average of 26.6 points, while conceding just 14.4. In saying that, don’t be fooled by the Cowboys last game against the Raiders either. While it will enhance the belief within the Raiders squad, the Cowboys were fatigued and drained from a representative period. Now that they have recovered from that and proved last week that they can score for fun, watch for the Cowboys to show their opponents just what they’re capable of, winning this match by more than two converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys -13.5 @ $1.90

Smack-bang on! = Cowboys 13-18 @ $5 – The average difference in their past 5 matches is 12.2 but that is taking into account several matches without Thurston and other representative players. Now that they are return, so too is the confidence. With the Raiders also scoring points, they will ensure that this game isn’t a complete blow out.

Lining up for it = Kane Linnett FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – Considering he has scored 4 tries in the Cowboys past 3 matches, there is plenty of worth on offer for Linnett to lead the scoring for his team. He is a key feature of the Cowboys left edge attack and look for Thurston to get the ball to this area as much as possible.

Sea Eagles (11th) v Broncos (1st)

Coming off a strong and upstaging performance of the Warriors last week, the Sea Eagles return home knowing that they still need to win all of their remaining matches if they’re to make the 8. That being said, taking a game up to the Central Coast where they are despised isn’t ideal and they would have a better chance of upsetting their opponents at Brookvale Oval. Making the Finals will be no easy accomplishment, with a very difficult run home. Even facing several teams at home will prove challenging to say the least. The Broncos will head south knowing that if they play to their capabilities, the Sea Eagles should pose only a minimal threat. They were dominant in keeping the Titans scoreless last week in Brisbane. Never causing doubt to creep into the contest. It also allowed them to improve on their match against the Tigers, where there was a slight mental lapse. They have earned their standing at the top of the competition ladder with consistent performances and they will not want to take their pressure off their opponents here. Each week, their halves are gaining confidence and momentum; and while their forwards are dominating the middle of the field, they are offering the direction to their attack and building pressure at the end of each set. Things are moving along nicely, although this is perhaps the first test they may face in the run home towards the Finals. They’re expected to win, but a trip south and a mental lapse prior to the Finals may just get the better of them. In saying that, Bennett is a smart coach and will know how to avoid this issue, should they face it.

Team News
Sea Eagles = Tom Symonds (injury) is replaced in the back row by Justin Horo, joined by Blake Leary, who will start at lock for Ligi Sao (injured). Michael Chee Kam and Jesse Sene-Lefao are the new faces on the bench. Steve Matai may have to undergo a fitness test after suffering a concussion.
Broncos = Jack Reed (suspension) returns to the centres, forcing Jordan Kahu back to the wing and Corey Oates to the bench. Jarrod Wallace is named to start at prop for Adam Blair (suspended), with Joe Ofahengaue filling the vacant bench position. Dale Copley moves to 18th man.

History
Overall = Sea Eagles 13 Draw 1 Broncos 9
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 3 Broncos 2
At Central Coast Stadium = Never played there
Form = Sea Eagles 1 win – Broncos 8 wins

Verdict
The Broncos are sitting at the top of the competition ladder for a reason. Coming up against the 11th ranked team will not pose any threat on paper, although the Sea Eagles can be a far better team than their ranking suggests. Now that the drama around their coach and other players has settled, they can get back to focusing on the field. This team only has a few weeks left together and that can go one of two ways. It will either galvanise them or lead to their demise, as they’re unfocused. If the match were at Brookvale, they would be a greater chance of causing an upset. However the Broncos looked resolutely focussed each week on winning their match and executing at a high level. That spells trouble for the Sea Eagles, especially with DCE still under an injury cloud and little forward power to resist the Broncos advancements. With the Broncos expected to win, settling on the margin becomes the hardest part. The Broncos have been racking up the points in recent matches while the Sea Eagles demonstrated against the Cowboys how quickly they can unravel if things don’t go to plan. With this in mind, expect the Broncos to first cover the line and then go on to win this match comfortably.

Suggested Bet
Broncos -6.5 @ $1.90

Just try and stop them = Broncos 13+ @ $2.65 – As they’ve shown several times this season, including a match against the Broncos, the Sea Eagles are still behind the top teams. Once they get too far behind, they have the ability to “switch off” mentally and allow their opponents to run away with the match.

Dragons (10th) v Knights (14th)

In stark contrast to the last time these two teams met, either team will be desperate to win this match for numerous reasons. The Dragons have set a new, unwanted, club record of 7-consecutive losses with a flat performance against the Storm on the road. They only managed 4-points, averaging just 8.8-points per game in the past 5 matches. This has lead to a downward spiral on the competition ladder and they seem lost for answers. Thankfully, they face a Knights team that failed to build on a sole victory in Round 19; as they were thrashed at the hands of the Rabbitohs. That led to their coach, Rick Stone, being sacked and replaced by club stalwart, Danny Buderus. A lot has been written about the troubles of the Knights and how they have lost their unique identity. Their does appear to be a lack of heart at the club but whether or not Buderus’ appointment can turn that around remains to be scene. It was back in Round 5 that the Dragons halted the Knights fantastic start to the season and since then, things have changed dramatically. To make things more difficult, they have only won 2-games on the road this season. With the Dragons season hanging in the balance, they will need to cling to a positive home record that they will hope to assist them in breaking their unwanted streak.

Team News
Dragons = Craig Garvey comes onto bench, joined by Will Matthews, who swaps starting roles with Ben Creagh.
Knights = Carlos Tuimavave comes into the team at 5/8, with Sione Mata’utia moving back to the centres. Jake Mamo will start on the wing and Kurt Gidley moves back to fullback. Danny Levi is a new addition to the bench. Joseph Tapine is expected to replace Tariq Sims who may withdraw with a shoulder injury.

History
Overall = Dragons 20 Knights 10
Last 5 matches = Dragons 4 Knights 1
At Jubilee Oval = Dragons 62% Knights 50%
Form = Dragons 7 losses – Knights 1 loss

Verdict
There is a general thought that when a team sacks a coach, they are a good chance of winning their next match. Fact is though, it has only happened once in the past 6 occurrences. Throw in the 7-game losing streak that the Dragons are desperate to break and the job ahead of the Knights becomes even more difficult. Expect the visitors to be better, but there is still a noticeably lack of conviction in their efforts. Such a drastic reversal of form would be surprising to say the least and the Dragons have shown some promise. Although they have been losing, they are still putting themselves in contests and keeping alive their Finals chances. They are still ranked the 4th best defensive team in the competition and the Knights will find them difficult to crack. That being said, points can be hard to come by for the Dragons and they need the leaders within their team to stand up and control the game for them. This leads people to believe that the expected margin of victory to be less than two converted tries, but you can never be so sure. Once they find their confidence, they can be a difficult team to hold; especially if their opponents are at the bottom end of the ladder. The Dragons should kick away from the Knights towards the end of this game, recording a comfortable win at a ground that has produced stunning performances against the Broncos and Sharks in 2015. Simply, they are superior in majority of areas across the field and once they whether the initial “fight” of their opponents, they should turn out an impressive performance.

Suggested Bet
Dragons 13+ @ $2.40

Rabbitohs (4th) v Panthers (12th)

Authority returned to the Rabbitohs performances last week as they dominated a miserable Newcastle outfit for the entire 80 minutes. It was a sign that they do belong in the Top 4 of the competition and there is a clear divide between those teams and the rest of the competition. They will only begin to get stronger in the run home and will want to make amends for their loss to the Panthers in Round 17. The Panthers will also be aiming to bounce back, but their loss was as recent as last week against the Raiders at home. They are struggling currently to field a full-strength team and the loss of Peter Wallace for the rest of the season is going to hurt their chances. That loss also forced them further down the ladder meaning that the slim hope they had, is narrowing each week. A win here against a superior team will go a long way to keeping those hopes alive, however the Rabbitohs are hardly going to want to give up the chance at a 3-game winning streak in front of their home fans. There may also be added incentive, depending on the result of the Roosters and Storm over the weekend. While the Panthers are fighting to make the 8, the Rabbitohs are also in a battle for the Top 4 and those two issues make this match an intriguing contest.

Team News
Rabbitohs = Kyle Turner (injury) is named to make a long-awaited return on the bench in place of Ben Lowe.
Panthers = Waqa Blake comes into the centres for Dean Whare (injured), while Josh Mansour (injury) comes back onto the wing. Isaac John is named to replace Peter Wallace (injured) in the halves and Sam McKendry starts at prop for Nigel Plum (injured). Apisai Koroisau fills the vacant bench spot.

History
Overall = Rabbitohs 11 Panthers 13
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 4 Panthers 1
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 55% Panthers 44%
Form = Rabbitohs 2 wins – Panthers 3 losses

Verdict
It should be all one-way traffic as the Rabbitohs aim to reaffirm their standing in the Top 4 and avoid losing contact with the teams above them. They have sent a strong message to the rest of the competition in recent weeks that they’re improving; outscoring their opponents 76-14. The Panthers will be slightly confident though and will be desperate to keep their Finals hopes alive. It will be an uphill battle and while their defence may be resolute, they will struggle to score points without the calmness and direction of Wallace. This is where the difference between the two sides will be created and the Rabbitohs know that they cannot release any pressure on their opponents throughout the game. They were strong last week and their forwards, while a shadow of their pack from last year, are improving each week. They will eventually pull away from the Panthers, even to the point where it could get ugly for the visitors who are struggling with a mounting injury toll. Any more and it could spell the end of their season. With this result expected, you have to look outside the normal betting markets for a valuable return for your investment.

Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 19+ @ $1.90

Be precise = Rabbitohs by 21-30 points @ $4.30 – As I said, you have to look elsewhere to find some value. This market suggested that while the Rabbitohs will run away with the match, the Panthers will fight until the end. It would be surprising to see them beaten by more than 30-points after upsetting the Bunnies just over a month ago.

A walk to remember = Dylan Walker FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – He captured 3 tries last week in their rout, including the first for the Rabbitohs and the last in the match. Poise returned to his play last week and given the extra room, Walker excelled. Expect him to only go on with that performance here.

Titans (15th) v Eels (13th)

The Titans will have extra time to prepare for this match and probably have some soul-searching on the agenda following their 34-nil loss to the Broncos. That effort means that they have now failed to score a try in their past two matches and they only had one in Round 18. You have to go back to their 10-point loss to the Roosters to find the last time they scored more than 1 try in a match and that was over a month ago. Languishing at the bottom of the table is causing more troubles than one at this club. Moral is low and they are clearly hanging out for the end of the season. It is a given that they were beaten by a better team, but they offered little resistance in that effort. The Eels have back-to-back MNF games on the road and will be up against it here if they continue to switch off at the end of matches. For the first half, they were in with a chance of springing a surprise on the Cowboys. Then reality set in that their opponents were only in first gear; once they clicked, it was too much for the Eels to handle. Since they had the bye, momentum has been difficult to come by, just mustering 8-points while conceding 72 to the Bulldogs and Cowboys. It is another year of “what might have been” for the Eels and in the closing rounds of the competition, they are going to have to attempt to build as much momentum as possible heading into 2016 and beyond.

Team News
Titans = Daniel Mortimer comes onto the bench for Chad Reedman, while Eddy Pettybourne and Agnatius Paasi relegated to the bench to accommodate the return of Nate Myles and Lachlan Burr (both injury).
Eels = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Titans 8 Eels 4
Last 5 matches = Titans 4 Eels 1
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 49% Eels 33%
Form = Titans 5 losses – Eels 2 losses

Verdict
Scoring points has been an issue for both sides recently but facing “like” opponents, the shackles are about to be released. Their coaches should give them a license to throw the ball around and play what’s in front of them. If this is the case, the unpredictability of the Eels will cause troubles for the Titans. They have proven this season that they can turn out a strong defensive effort when it is needed. That being said, their attack has disbanded and now they are having difficulties staying with their opponents. On the other side, while they’re not playing well, this may just be the game where the Titans players sense an opportunity to grab a win. It’ll be difficult; with just a 22% winning record at home compared to the Eels 44% record on the road. If the Eels had their full-strength team, I would be recommending them. However with the Titans possessing a strong halves combination and getting match fitness back to key players, expect them to hand the Eels another loss on their travels in 2015. As for the margin, it’s a big call but the Titans by more than 2-converted tries and they have extra freedom and a point to prove after recent scoreless matches.

Suggested Bet
Titans -4.5 @ $1.90

The only shining light = Semi Radradra FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – It’s been tough for them and even though they’re not expected to win, Radradra is always a potent attacking weapon. Considering his form this season, the odds offered are perhaps over what they should be.

Good luck!
Scooby