Broncos (1st) v Titans (15th)
The Broncos were in second gear for majority of last week, however that was all that was needed against a despairing Tigers team. Nevertheless, they put together some brilliant passages of football that reiterates their standing at the top of the competition ladder. They were guilty of releasing the pressure at the beginning of the second half, although they are emerging at one of the teams to beat. The Broncos should have little trouble handling their opponents here; with the only thing that could work against them being a short turn around from a match on Sunday. In saying that, the Titans were lost for answers against the Knights, a team that they would’ve considered themselves a chance against. It wasn’t to be though, as the Titans were unable to register anything more then a penalty goal in the 11th minute of the match to open the scoring. From that point onwards, it was one-way traffic in favour of the home team. That loss all but ended the Titans slim Finals aspirations and they will be playing for nothing more than pride and the chance to upset the competition leaders when they run out for this match.
Team News
Broncos = Jordan Kahu shifts into the centres for Jack Reed (suspended), with Corey Oates promoted from the bench to the wing. Dale Copley comes into the team there, along with Kodi Nikorima.
Titans = Aidan Sezer (injury) returns to play 5/8, forcing Daniel Mortimer back to the bench. Kevin Gordon, Matt White and Lachlan Burr all come back into the team replacing several players, most notably Dave Taylor. David Hala is named as 18th man.
History
Overall = Broncos 13 Titans 5
Last 5 matches = Broncos 4 Titans 1
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 59% Titans 20%
Form = Broncos 7 wins – Titans 4 losses
Verdict
This match looks like nothing more than one-way traffic. The Broncos were too hard for the Tigers to handle last week and with the Titans slipping further behind the rest of the competition, they are set for the same fate. They will offer some fight early, but ultimately the Broncos will be too superior across the field for the Titans to hold. With such a one-sided contest expected, it can be hard to find some value. With the Broncos so dominant last week, their confidence will be sky high and this spells trouble for the Titans. Expect them to pile on the points and attempt to avoid the momentary lapse that allowed their opponents to score some points on the scoreboard last week. If the visitors are not careful, things may get very ugly for them, quickly!
Suggested Bet
Broncos 19+ @ $2.10
A real shalacking! = Broncos 30+ @ $3.25 – As mentioned above, if the Broncos are in the mood, things may get ugly. Being a cross-town rivalry, fans are hesitant to back this option. However there is plenty of value around it, as the Titans need to improve dramatically to avoid this situation.
Yahoo for Kahu = Jordan Kahu FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – Moving into the centres to cover for injury, Kahu is now closer to the ball. His attacking ability is there for all to see and he will be comfortable on the Broncos left hand side. Further, the Titans Right edge defence will have a difficult time trying to stop him if their efforts last week are anything to go by.
Tigers (16th) v Roosters (3rd)
The Tigers looked outclassed even before they run out onto the field here against the Roosters. Their form of late has been appalling compared to that of the Roosters, who again turned in another strong performance. Heading to Brisbane for a match on Sunday, the Tigers held onto some hope that they could be competitive, but that was blown away in the first half. A little rush of points at the beginning of the second half provided some positives, although that more accurately reflected their opponent’s mental lapse rather than their ability. The Roosters continued on their winning ways, this time putting player issues behind them to keep the Warriors scoreless. It was yet another impressive display where their defence built pressure on their opponents attacking movements. Then, when they were given the chances in attack, they made the most of them, although some would say that they could’ve scored even more points if a few things went their way. They are shaping as the team to beat; yet they have not faced a genuine threat (the Warriors were expected to be but weren’t) for a while now. They need to use games like this one to continue to grow their confidence and persist with their fantastic play on both sides of the ball.
Team News
Tigers = David Nofoaluma (injured) returns to the centres, while Jack Buchanan comes back on the bench.
Roosters = Boyd Cordner (rested) returns to the back row, forcing Isaac Liu back to the bench and Jackson Hastings to 18th man.
History
Overall = Tigers 8 Roosters 18
Last 5 matches = Tigers 0 Roosters 5
At ANZ Stadium = Tigers 42% Roosters 44%
Form = Tigers 4 losses – Roosters 5 wins
Verdict
As their performance was poor last week, there is the chance that the Tigers will be able to bounce back here and turn in a better effort. That would bring them into a contest, however this week they’re up against the Roosters. It can be said that the Roosters have been guilty of playing down to their opponents at times this season. Although as the Finals loom, they are looking to build their confidence and form up to its peak. The Tigers do not appear able to beat or even hold the Roosters in any area of the field. The Roosters were dominant last week against a Warriors outfit, reminding fans that defence is still a major weapon for them. The Tigers were only able to score points last week courtesy of a lapse in their opponent’s mental approach. The longer this game goes on, the more the Tigers fans will want the fulltime whistle to blow as the Roosters are set to build a nice tally.
Suggested Bet
Roosters 19+ @ $2.25
Something to crow about = Roosters 30+ @ $3.50 – There is great value around the Roosters embarrassing the Tigers in this one. As stated above, the Tigers appear unable to hold their opponents in any area on the field. On top of that, scoring points will also be an issue, further bridging the gap between these two sides.
Warriors (7th) v Sea Eagles (13th)
Both teams will head over to New Zealand with their tales between their legs after disappointing performances. For the Warriors, they were unable to produce the effort that was expected of them after climbing into the Top 4. That loss knocked them down to 7th on the ladder and demonstrated how they were unable to lift their intensity level to match that of their opponents. Credit to the Roosters though who were fantastic, but that is the level the Warriors need to reach if they want to make a name for themselves this season. The Sea Eagles had similar problems, although their loss meant that they now need to win all of their remaining matches to even have a chance of making the Finals. Things went form bad to worse in that game too, with DCE injured inside the first half and not returning. News also broke on Tuesday that there is about to be a massive turn over of players, as many are being shown the door and cleaned out of the club. If they were told that news prior to Monday, it would be one explanation for their disappointing effort. If that is the case, there is little that you can expect from Manly, as players will only be out there playing for themselves. That being said, many would want to showcase their talents to other clubs as they seek another contract. Either way, the Sea Eagles are in unfamiliar territory and there doesn’t appear to be any positives on the horizon for them.
Team News
Warriors = Glen Fisiiahi (injury) makes a long awaited return on the wing for David Fusitu’a (injured), with Tuimoala Lolohea moving to the centres.
Sea Eagles = Unchanged, but DCE is in grave doubt.
History
Overall = Warriors 8 Sea Eagles 16
Last 5 matches = Warriors 1 Sea Eagles 4
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 59% Sea Eagles 70%
Form = Warriors 1 loss – Sea Eagles 1 loss
Verdict
All is not well at the Sea Eagles currently and despite what is said, their optimum performance appears as though it will abandon them. With that in mind, the Warriors will still have to work hard for their victory. It was extremely disappointing to see their efforts last week, especially considering how their hopes were high after their recent form. That will only act as a reality check heading into this game, a match that they should be able to and are expected to win. Home field advantage is also in their favour, plus the fact that their opponents are backing up from a MNF contest. With the Warriors expected to win, the decision becomes by how much. Their scoring at home in their past 5 matches has averaged 26.2 points, while conceding 19.8. However in their past 5 matches against Top 8 teams, the Sea Eagles have only managed just 14.4 points, including 28-point blowout against the Sharks. Without DCE in their line-up, points may be very difficult to come by. Combine that with the fact that the Warriors will need to make a statement and they could set themselves up for a comfortable victory in the end.
Suggested Bet
Warriors 13+ @ $2
How will they stop them? = Warriors 19+ @ $3 – When they’re firing, they are a hard team to stop. It may take a little longer to find their confidence again but once they do, it could be trouble for Manly. Their players are disgruntled at the moment and points may be hard for them to get with limited opportunities.
Crowd Favourite = Tuimoala Lolohea FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – No, it’s not big Manu…in this instance it is another dynamic player. Lolohea has come along nicely this year, proving that he is difficult to stop anywhere on the field. The Sea Eagles are strong on the edge, but without trust from inside defenders, they may be forced to push up harder and allow this man to get one-on-one with his defender.
Storm (5th) v Dragons (9th)
Just when people were beginning to doubt the potential of the Storm, they came out and showed why they are still a team to be feared. For the second time within two weeks, fans found out the motivation that Cameron Smith and his team has for big occasions, with a 52-10 win capping off the hookers 300th game celebrations. That consolidates their standing on the ladder but they need to keep winning if they want to stay there. Thankfully, they have extra time to prepare for this match in New Zealand, a game that they chose to move at the beginning of the year. That decision doesn’t favour the Dragons, who are sliding down the ladder since they last win in Round 12. Their loss to the Rabbitohs now has them in 9th on the ladder, 2-points out of the 8 and in danger of missing the Finals altogether. There was a slight chance that they could cause an upset against their opponents, but the Rabbitohs always looked in control. Even when the scores were getting tight, the visitors kicked to another level that the Dragons were unable to match. Sure, injuries and suspensions haven’t helped their cause, but they’re factors that have come to be expected in this game and need to be managed.
Team News
Storm = Unchanged.
Dragons = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Storm 21 Draw 1 Dragons 8
Last 5 matches = Storm 3 Dragons 2
At McLean Park = Never played at the ground
Form = Storm 1 win – Dragons 6 losses
Verdict
With another loss for the Dragons set to rewrite the record books, losing this match becomes a nullified option. This is a game that they will not want to drop and they have a few things working in their favour. For starters, the match will be played on neutral turf, meaning that the Storm players will also be impacted by travel. If the Dragons are serious about stopping their slide, it has to start here. The Storm were great last week, but the Panthers offered little resistance to their cause. Once the game was decided, they switched off and allowed the Storm to score freely. Don’t forget, this is the same Storm team that were on a 3-game losing streak prior to that win. All is not solved for them and the Dragons will consider their opponents vulnerable. Rather than declare them capable of winning this match, take them with the extra assistance of the line. For what it is worth, I believe that this game will be won by the Storm, but the final margin will be a converted try or less.
Suggested Bet
Dragons +7.5 @ $1.90
Tri for this = Either team under 6.5 points @ $3 – If you do not care about the eventual winner of this match but believe it will be close, then think about this option. There is also the reward of considerably more value on offer for making this call over the suggested bet.
Rabbitohs (4th) v Knights (14th)
The Rabbits were slowly getting back to their best in their win against the Dragons, with confidence obviously returning after their win. It was a matter of them playing naturally after building the pressure on the their opponents, with pieces of individual brilliance closing the game out for them. They are still a long way from their best play that was with them last year and it will take something special to get there, but it was a major step in the right direction. The Knights will not be a complete walk over after gaining confidence in their win last week, although they need to remarkably improve to cause an upset. Their win over the Titans broke a 7-game losing streak that has confined them to the bottom of the competition ladder. They are another team that is playing for pride for the remainder of the season and perhaps some players are also playing for their futures. Interestingly enough, no word has been given on the future of coach Rick Stone, with battle for the Knights to avoid the spoon perhaps just masking the real problems that are at this club. One thing for sure, the players certainly need to lift their effort in matches and mirror the performance that was given last week against the Titans.
Team News
Rabbitohs = Issac Luke (suspension) returns at hooker in place of Cameron McInnes (injured).
Knights = Adam Clydsdale (injured) is named at hooker in place of Tyler Randell (injured). Dane Gagai and Akuila Uate are both in doubt of playing.
History
Overall = Rabbitohs 9 Knights 13
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 4 Knights 1
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 54% Knights 50%
Form = Rabbitohs 1 win – Knights 1 win
Verdict
The Rabbitohs are a potent team to face at any stage of the season, let alone when they’re coming off a confidence-boosting win over the Dragons. They will need every bit of that to go on and win this match though, with the Knights also rejuvenated after a win. To put things into perspective though, the Knights only faced the Titans, a team that has look just as bad as them during stages of 2015. Winning form is hard to knock, but the Rabbitohs showed that they were back on the right path last week. Luke returning at hooker will only boost their forward pack and the Knights appear hard pressed to hold them in this area. Losing the battle here only creates greater room for their halves and GI to scheme. It will not be a complete blowout though; as the Rabbitohs are still yet to get back to their best. However by the end of this one, the home side will prevail by more than 2 converted tries.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs -14.5 @ $1.90
Be specific = Rabbitohs 13-18 @ $4.50 – If you want more value than the suggested bet, consider this option. The Rabbitohs are not expected to completely blow the Knights out of the park as they are not yet back to their best, yet still win comfortably. Put the two together and you get this valuable investment option.
Panthers (12th) v Raiders (10th)
These two teams will take the field aiming to keep their Finals hopes alive, while also trying to bounce back from a loss. The Panthers travelled south to Melbourne last week and may have well not even turned up, as there was little to be excited about in their 42-point loss. While there was some hope with players returning, it was the complete opposite and the Panthers were left wondering what went wrong. To make matters worse, they took a major dent to their point’s difference and are now sitting in 12th position on the ladder. The Raiders are on equal points, but one of the best attacking teams in the competition needs to learn how to limit their opponent’s points. The Sharks came out strong in Canberra, with the home side continually having to play from behind. The home team lost in ET after allowing their opponents to easily march down the field when in possession. It only added fuel to the argument that the Raiders lack plenty of experience and direction when it matters, as well as the fact that in 2015 they do not enjoy playing at home. Perhaps travelling to Penrith will ease the burden, although the home team will be ready for everything their opponents throw at them.
Team News
Panthers = David Simmons (injured) comes back onto the wing in place of Robert Jennings. Sika Manu comes into the starting team for Bryce Cartwright, who moves back to the bench. Apisai Korosau is relegated to 18th man.
Raiders = Josh McCrone is named at halfback, with Jack Wighton moving back to fullback for Sisa Waqa (injured).
History
Overall = Panthers 17 Raiders 16
Last 5 matches = Panthers 3 Raiders 2
At Pepper Stadium = Panthers 54% Raiders 35%
Form = Panthers 2 losses – Raiders 1 loss
Verdict
This game is expected to be one of the tightest of the weekend. For starters, there is a lot to lose for both sides. The loser moves further out of contention for the Finals. Playing at home would usually favour the Panthers, but this match is a 55% home record versus a 62% away record. The Raiders have enjoyed playing on the road this season and their performance away has kept them in the Finals race in 2015. The Panthers have the ability to bounce back follow a poor loss and will have learned plenty from that match; on top of the extra time they have had to prepare for this game. Compare that with the Raiders, who had several cracks appear in a match that they were favourites to win. It’s unusual to back a team that is coming off a 42-point loss against a team that went down in ET, although the ability of the two sides suggests this. Things became too much for the Panthers once the Storm got onto a roll. The Raiders were not the same without Sam Williams in their team and McCrone is unknown in 2015. Things will be tight and expect this game to go down to the wire but in the end, the home side will rediscover their mojo and should be able to scrape home.
Suggested Bet
Panthers 1-12 @ $3
Simmo’s luck = David Simmons FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Prior to his enforced spell through injury, Simmons was a man in form. They missed his finishing ability on the edges and will have confidence in his ability on the edge. The Raiders can be vulnerable here too, aiming to make amends for their lapses in the middle last week; Simmons may find himself unmarked out wide.
Bulldogs (6th) v Sharks (8th)
The Bulldogs took care of business last week against the Eels; overcoming the early momentum and confidence that their opponents displayed. Eventually, their larger pack got the better of the home team and allowed the Bulldogs to continually attack with more room between their players and the defensive line. It was a sign of how strong they can be; while many were also left thinking that the Bulldogs are still a genuine threat. If they were, they would want to win this match at their spiritual home ground in Belmore. They were only there a few weeks ago and wreaked havoc against Melbourne in that match. The Sharks will be up for the match though, as they attempt to extend their winning streak to 3 matches. The Sharks came out strong in Canberra, with the home side continually having to play from behind. Once they kicked ahead, it was a dodgy video referee call that sent the game into extra time, allowing the Sharks to prevail. Justice was served in the end and that win has them clinging to 8th spot, yet equal with 5th but behind courtesy of a horror points difference. While they need to focus on winning, they may also find themselves in a position of needing to score more points to resurrect this problem. It will be tough though, as they appear to be outmuscled in the forwards. It is not in the Sharks mindset to lose a match here and the promising matchup between the two packs ensures that this game is going to be highly entertaining.
Team News
Bulldogs = Moses Mbye is named in jersey 17, while Tim Browne is 18th man.
Sharks = Ben Barba is named on the bench after being a late withdrawal last week, along with Matt Prior (18th) and Anthony Tupou (19th).
History
Overall = Bulldogs 17 Sharks 8
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 4 Sharks 1
Form = Bulldogs 1 win – Sharks 2 wins
Verdict
The first thing that comes to mind is whether or not the Sharks will be able to combat the larger Bulldogs pack or not. If they can, they are certainly in with a chance of winning this match. They are a gritty team that showed what they’re made of last week, but the Bulldogs will be a whole new challenge compared to the Raiders. If they are vulnerable, it is in the outside backs and last week, the Bulldogs were dynamic in this area. While their forwards are taking care of business, the outside backs added the finishing touches. If a similar outcome is expected here, it may be too much for the Sharks to contain for 80 minutes. Throw in the fact that a very vocal home crowd at Belmore will lift the Bulldogs and the Sharks are up against it here. However, things will be tight in this contest. The Sharks are a team that is learning to either win ugly or just lose with style. With their points difference also a factor, they will not want the Bulldogs to skip away to a lead of more than 2-converted tries.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.85
Cowboys (2nd) v Eels (11th)
In a rematch of their thrilling and bizarre encounter in Round 13, the Eels will head north to Townsville aiming to make amends for giving up a 24-point lead. The Cowboys face yet another MNF contest, but it has been a fixture that has been kind to them. Winning last week over Manly at Brookvale was yet another statement that they are a different team to the one that has struggled on the road in the past. That win also kept them in second place on the ladder, a position that is deserved given their execution in previous matches. The Eels didn’t enjoy the same fortunes, overpowered by the Bulldogs after showing some early promise. Once they were behind on the scoreboard, the life was sucked out of them completely and they failed to compete. Throw in a few disgruntled players and things at this club have gone from bad to worse. Thankfully, the drama surrounding Chris Sandow will disappear since releasing him but just as things were passing, another salary cap commotion hits them. It has been stated several times this season, the Eels need to put everything behind them and just focus on playing rugby league. Unfortunately, that hasn’t worked too well for them in 2015 and they will again find it difficult trying to upset the Cowboys on their home turf.
Team News
Cowboys = James Tamou (suspension) returns at prop, pushing Ben Hannant to the bench and Sam Hoare to 18th man.
Eels = Reece Robinson (injury) returns at fullback to replace Corey Norman (injured). Joseph Paulo will play 5/8, with Luke Kelly moving to halfback for Chris Sandow (suspended). David Gower comes into lock for Anthony Watmough (injured) and Danny Wicks (injured) is replaced by Daniel Alvaro, along with Isaac De Gois.
History
Overall = Cowboys 14 Draw 1 Eels 15
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 4 Eels 1
Form = Cowboys 2 wins – Eels 1 loss
Verdict
This match should be nothing more than a dominating effort by the home team. They will be wary of what the Eels have to offer, after they visitors had them in a spot of bother in their last meeting. Still, for the 11th ranked team to upset the Cowboys on the home turf would be amazing to say the least. Not only are their forwards firing, they have JT leading their team around strongly and setting an example from the front. Unfortunately there is little value being offered, with many expecting a complete blowout on the scoreboard. That is warranted, considering the Eels switched off against the Bulldogs last week and the Cowboys were so dominant against the Sea Eagles at Brookvale. Scoring points has never been an issue for them but now they have their defensive structure organised well. This will spell trouble for the visitors and once the Cowboys gain momentum, they will be hard to stop. Look for them to put the finishing touches on yet another horror week on and off the field for the Eels.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys 30+ @ $2.50
The ultimate competitor = Johnathan Thurston to score a try @ $2.25 – Each week JT is coming out and making a strong statement. He has won all MOM honours in each of the Cowboys MNF victories this year and as he strives for victory, watch for him to dominate as much as possible; even getting himself a try or two.
Good luck!
Scooby
