Storm (6th) v Panthers (11th)
The form of the home team has slipped in recent weeks; to the point where they are sliding down the competition table. If this trend was to continue, it won’t be long until they are fighting for a position in the bottom half of the Top 8; with their current standing in 6th just 2-points ahead of 12th. Their form hasn’t been too bad, it was a slip that was always expected to take control of the team during the representative period. If they can drag themselves out of this flunk, it will not be long before they are competing with the top teams again. Last week, they simply met a stronger team that was firing on all cylinders. The Warriors were always going to be hard to stop and yet again, the Storm were overpowered in the forwards. The same could be said for the Panthers, although they had a winning streak halted by a big Roosters pack. It was tight at halftime and hope was growing that the Panthers could pull off another upset. That wasn’t the case though and when the Roosters clicked into another gear, the Panthers were unable to keep pace with their opponents. Some of the result was their own fault, but they have excuses; as player availability is still plaguing the strength of the team each week. As players return to their team, they are only expected to improve and this will be another test for them as they try to remain contact with the Top 8.
Team News
Storm = Tim Glasby comes into the starting side, swapping with Felise Kaufusi, who returns to the bench.
Panthers = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Storm 22 Panthers 7
Last 5 matches = Storm 4 Panthers 1
At AAMI Park = Storm 73% Panthers 0%
Form = Storm 4 losses – Panthers 1 loss
Verdict
This match is going to be a lot closer than most people think. Despite losing last week, the Storm were very positive and looked good. Cooper Cronk returned and their game immediately improved. The same will be expected this week, although the Panthers are hardly up to the same level at the Warriors. Cronk adds a calm to any team that he plays in and the pressure was released on others, thus getting the best out of them. The visitors will throw challenges at the Storm, while also making them work for victory but ultimately, the home team should be too strong. Their forwards are far superior and they will enjoy the chance to return home. Throw in the fact that this match marks Cameron Smith’s 300th game in the NRL; and the home team have several levels of motivation for this match. As for the margin, the Panthers average a losing margin of 14.5 point in their last 4 losses and that points towards the Storm winning by 2 or more converted tries.
Suggested Bet
Storm 13+ @ $2.50
More value equals great return = Storm 13-18 @ $5 – It would be more than surprising to see the Panthers blown away on the scoreboard and considering the suggested bet, this option falls nicely in the lap of punters. Look at the Panthers average losing margin and if you’re after more value, consider this option.
Eels (12th) v Bulldogs (8th)
The Eels are currently experiencing their best form of 2015; on a 3-game winning streak that has also included 2 byes. The 10-competition points they have gained over the last 5 weeks has them now in contention with the Top 8, just 2-points behind 6th and only in their current standing courtesy of a poor points difference (-38). Confidence is slowly growing and that is what draws the best out of this side. However, as is well known, it will not take long for things to unravel for the Eels. This is a whole new challenge for them, with the big Bulldogs team egger to bounce back from a loss to the Broncos. It was a reality check for this team, who were favourites to win the match with some players being rested from the Broncos following Origin. They were also missing players, but were outclassed in a tight contest. If anything, it will be a guide as to the level the Bulldogs have to meet each week to be competitive enough to push their case for the Finals. They were lucky to hold onto 8th position on the ladder, but they are still not in an ideal position. Nevertheless, the talent is there and it will not take long for them to be considered a genuine threat again. This could be the start of their resurgence, but the Eels will not want to give away their winning streak too easily.
Team News
Eels = Junior Paulo is named to start, swapping with Darcy Lussick, who will come off the bench.
Bulldogs = Trent Hodkinson (rested) comes back into the team, with Moses Mbye making way and starting from the bench. This see’s Josh Reynolds play 5/8 and Tim Browne shift to 18th man.
History
Overall = Eels 14 Draw 1 Bulldogs 19
Last 5 matches = Eels 2 Bulldogs 3
At ANZ Stadium = Eels 39% Bulldogs 56%
Form = Eels 3 wins – Bulldogs 1 loss
Verdict
The Eels form in their past matches really has fans thinking that things will be close, but you can never be sure. Looking at the wins they have had, they have all faced teams that were understrength. The Storm were missing their Origin players, the Dragons had players out and probably were unlucky not to draw level in the dying minutes and the Tigers have lost all confidence. That being said, those wins will have them assured of their own ability. However this Bulldogs team will pose a whole new set of challenges. For starters, they need to make amends for their loss last week and are in a position where they need to consolidate their standing on the ladder. They have a superior pack of forwards to most teams in the competition, let alone the Eels and they will relish the released defensive pressure they’ll face compared to the Broncos last week. The conditions will make points difficult to come by, but the Bulldogs have too many attacking threats that will overpower the Eels. At the end of the day, there will be a reason why the Eels are outside the 8 and the Bulldogs are rising up again in their run home; with the Bulldogs expected to deal with their opponents comfortably.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs -8.5 @ $2
Pounding home a point = Bulldogs 13+ @ $2.50 – The attacking weapons are numerous for the Bulldogs. The Eels are improving, but have demonstrated on several occasions this year that if they get behind on the scoreboard, it is difficult to halt the flow of points. It shouldn’t be a major blowout, but the visitors should win by more than 2 converted tries.
Right on Rona = Curtis Rona FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – Along with Radradra, he is the leagues leading try scorer but he hasn’t even scored a try since Round 15. His lack of success has related to the flat Bulldogs performances, but expect them to attack on the edges and Rona is up there with the best finishers in the competition.
Raiders (10th) v Sharks (9th)
Both sides returned to the winners circle last week and remained alive in the race towards the Finals. The Raiders will remain at home, after proving convincing winners against the Knight’s for the second time this year. Their dominant display allowed them to race to a strong lead early and keep their opponents at bay for the rest of the match. Special mention has to go to Blake Austin, for reminding NSW selectors of what they missed out on during the Origin period. The points that the Knights scored flattered the score line and came mainly in a bunch towards the end of the game when the Raiders had switched off. On the other hand, the Sharks made amends for an earlier loss to the Dragons in 2015; completing shutting their opponents out of the contest. It was a pleasing effort for many reasons, but most notably the return of very stubborn defence. There is still an uphill battle for both teams; although the Sharks are 2-points ahead of the Raiders and only sit outside the Top 8 thanks to a -25 points difference. Amazingly, the Raiders have a +7 difference, something that may be crucial if the two teams draw level on the ladder. The Raiders are one of the most potent attacking teams in the competition, however they will be drawn into an arm wrestle of a contest here against a team that is beginning to build their momentum at the right time of the year.
Team News
Raiders = Kurt Baptiste is promoted from the bench to start at halfback, in place of Sam Williams (injured). Joey Leilua comes into the team on the vacant bench spot.
Sharks = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Raiders 14 Sharks 17
Last 5 matches = Raiders 3 Sharks 2
Form = Raiders 1 win – Sharks 1 win
Verdict
The Raiders are strong favorites because they’re at home and were dominant there over a very poor Knights team. Don’t get caught up in that hype though; the Knights are sitting at the bottom of the ladder and the Raiders still have a 25% winning record at home. On top of that, they still allowed their opponents too many points last week and are without their regular halves pairing. This will interrupt their attacking movements, with uncertainty around who will be the final halves pairing. In the meantime, the Sharks will be building on their efforts last week against the Dragons. Sure, their opponents were missing quality players, although it was the way the win was executed which would be the most impressive thing for this team. The Raiders team will not hold any fears for the Sharks, they have a very strong forward pack that they rely on to establish a strong platform for them and they use the momentum created to build pressure. It will not bother them what the score line is either, if anything the Sharks are more comfortable when they are in a grinding contest. The visitors look set to surprise the home team and cause an upset, albeit by less than 2 converted tries.
Suggested Bet
Sharks @ $2.30
Knights (16th) v Titans (14th)
With both teams languishing at the bottom of the ladder, there is hardly anything to be excited about for this match. They are simply playing for pride, although they are still mathematically a chance of making the Finals. The Knights are on a 7-game losing streak that doesn’t appear as if the end is in sight. Their execution on the field has been terrible and they are really struggling to match their opponents each week. The tries they scored against the Raiders only masked over what was a poor effort over 80 minutes. The Titans will have to also combat a short turnaround from MNF, where they were ambushed by the Sea Eagles and new foe, DCE. It was a chance to make amends for the contract dispute that hampered the club in the middle of the season; but they were flat over the match and were unable to halt the flow of points to the visitors. It really demonstrated how much they have declined and are in need of a spark to reignite their season. Have Greg Bird returning to their team will allow them the chance, but one player is hardly going to make drastic changes in this team. Either way, this game will end the losing streak of one team and permit a week where they can take their minds and pressure away from losing.
Team News
Knights = Beau Scott (suspension) returns in the back row, pushing Joe Tapine back to the bench. Jeremy Smith will start at lock, while Paterika Vaivai dropping back to 18th man.
Titans = Greg Bird (suspension) returns to start at lock, forcing Eddy Pettybourne back to the bench. Like Monday, Beau Falloon (injured) will play hooker and Dave Taylor (dropped) is in the second row.
History
Overall = Knights 8 Titans 5
Last 5 matches = Knights 3 Titans 2
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 60% Titans 43%
Form = Knights 7 losses – Titans 3 losses
Verdict
You could find it easier to grab a coin and toss it, rather than trying to decide a winner for this match. The standing on the competition ladder suggests the Titans (just one more win than the Knights) will be superior, however the home field advantage and odds are with the Knights. You cannot be sure though, with little to get excited about in their past matches. The return of Beau Scott will boost their team, although much more will be needed from the other key players in their team. Sooner or later, the losing streak of the Knights is going to end however it will not happen without effort. You would think that the Titans will be a better team with the return of Bird, adding much-needed experience onto the field, but they too will also need improved efforts from other players. Delving into the records for a greater understanding, the Knights have a 33% record at him this season compared with the Titans 57% on the road. It is expected that this game will be close; while at the same time perhaps having a low standard of execution. Nevertheless, the Titans have demonstrated slightly more competitiveness this season and despite missing a few attacking weapons, the experience should be enough to cause an upset by the narrowest of margins. In saying that, rather than backing them straight out, take them with the extra points just in case it isn’t the desired result.
Suggested Bet
Titans +3.5 @ $2
Dragons (7th) v Rabbitohs (5th)
In a rematch of the 1965 Grand Final, these two teams will do battle on the hallowed turf of the SCG. It was the same place where the epic clash took place just under 50 years ago, albeit, with one half of the Dragons merger. Now, this Dragons outfit will be aiming to stop a losing streak that is threatening to turn their 2015 into a disaster. During this period, they have been plagued by a horro injury toll, which came to a head against the Sharks where there were 5 “key players” left sitting on the sidelines. Those players returning here and in coming weeks will boost them, although the task ahead is a major one. The Rabbitohs enjoyed a week off with their second bye, a much-needed break after their flat performance against the Panthers in Round 17. It really highlighted the lack of power that this team once enjoyed, but they also looked tired in their play. They were outmuscled by a more physical team and can ill-afford to let that happen here. They are still a strong chance of landing in the Top 4, but are a remarkably different team than the one that was dominating last year. Perhaps the weeks rest would’ve served them well, like it did back in Round 15 where they came out and put a hopeful Manly team to the sword. Either way, the loser will have a Top 4/8 position to worry about for all of next week.
Team News
Dragons = Josh Dugan (injury) returns at fullback, pushing Charly Runciman to 19th man and Justin Hunt to the wing. Benji Marshall (injury) returns at halfback, with Drew Hutchinson moving to 18th man. Tyson Frizell (injury) and Joel Thompson (injury) both return and will partner one another in the back row. This pushes Will Matthews and Jake Marketo back to the bench and Mark Ioane to 20th man.
Rabbitohs = Greg Inglis (Origin) returns and will play fullback, allowing Alex Johnson to move back to the wing. Cameron McInnes will start at hooker for Issac Luke (suspended), alongside Tim Grant (injury) who returns at prop. Dave Tyrell (injured) comes onto the bench.
History
Overall = Dragons 15 Rabbitohs 9
Last 5 matches = Dragons 1 Rabbitohs 4
Form = Dragons 5 losses – Rabbitohs 1 loss
Verdict
The Dragons will be a different team in this match, as the returning player will only strengthen the team in various areas. This will make them competitive and even a chance of winning, although that is before you factor in their opponents. Returning players will also boost the Rabbitohs and a different level of execution is to be expected from them compared to their last match. Last time it was as if they had already checked out and were focusing on the bye; something that they would’ve been disappointed with. The loss of Issac Luke doesn’t help their cause, but they still have quality across the field. It will not be easy for them to win and they need to be wary of the threats that their opponents will offer. That being said, the scoring capabilities of the Rabbitohs seem to outweigh anything that the Dragons can produce. The home side will rely upon stringent defence to get them through this match and when that fails, they will find it hard to chase points. Furthermore, the visitors have a stronger set of forwards and several players will relish increasing time on the field after returning from injury. For the Dragons players, it may take them yet another week before they find their feet again.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.80
Walking all over them = Dylan Walker FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Lookings back at the efforts of the Sharks last week, they attacked the Dragons relentlessly on the edges. Expect the same from the Rabbitohs, who will aim to exploit their opponents who are rushing up too quickly out of the line to try and shut down scoring opportunities. So how does Walker come into it? He will find himself in open space more often than not and will be desperate to get across the line after several quiet weeks.
Roosters (3rd) v Warriors (4th)
It was just over a month ago when these two teams met in Auckland, an occasion where the Roosters held their nerve, despite the Warriors leading by 18-6 5 minutes into the second half. It went down to the wire and after both sides kicked a FG, the Roosters crossed to avoid golden point and prevail. It was a great win for them at the time as they were missing several players through Origin duty; and many would argue that it was the beginning signs of the Roosters returning to their powers. Last week was an impressive 2nd half display, after whether much of the Panthers energy in the first half, they won comfortably 24-4 in the end. Their strength is their forwards and in every match they play, they will take the game to their opponent in this area. Even more impressive last week, was the performance of the Warriors at home against the Storm. It was a win that propelled them to 4th on the ladder and now that the representative season is finished, the Warriors need to consolidate their position. Unlike previous years, they are not hoping to finish strongly and scrape into the Finals, they are also emerging as one of the teams to beat. They rolled through their opponents in the middle of the field and for another week, Shaun Johnson was at his dynamic best. He was everywhere on the field and further emphasized how crucial he is to his teams performance. This will be expected from him now in the closing weeks of the competition and heading into the Finals; but he will also need support form those players around him.
Team News
Roosters = Aidan Guerra (rested) returns at lock, pushing Isaac Liu back to the bench and Jackson Hastings to 18th man.
Warriors = Jacob Lillyman returns to the starting team, with Albert Vete moving back to the bench. Sam Rapira is named as 18th man.
History
Overall = Roosters 14 Draw 1 Warriors 17
Last 5 matches = Roosters 3 Warriors 2
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 63% Warriors59%
Form = Roosters 4 wins – Warriors 3 wins
Verdict
This mouth-watering contest is sure to make any rugby league fan want to tune into this match. With word around early in the week that Shaun Johnson may miss out after an injury suffered at training, panic went through most who immediately wrote off the chances of the Warriors. News is that he is expected to play and thus, the odds on the Warriors come down again. For starters, it is surprising to see them so far out in betting markets; as this match will be a lot closer than most think. While the Roosters have been improving and are emerging as one of the teams to beat, they still haven’t been convincing in past victories. Had the Panthers made them pay for their mistakes, it could’ve been a different outcome, while they were also flat against the Titans. The Warriors will be out to make amends for their last loss to the Roosters, a result that they let slip away. The Roosters still have questions hanging over their head about the efforts of their halves and while that lingers, they will be stagnated during their performances. The Warriors are red hot at the moment and that momentum will be hard to the home team to stop, yet it will be very close again and almost go down to the last possession. Rather than select them outright, play it safe and allow them to compete in this match with a lead prior to KO.
Suggested Bet
Warriors +10.5 @ $1.90
Broncos (1st) v Tigers (15th)
This game is a match up of polar opposites, as the Broncos are sitting at the right end of the table and the Tigers and almost playing for pride. Things are looking pretty in Brisbane, as they are leading the competition in the run home towards the Finals. Just when they were expected to slip up during the Origin period, they almost lifted to another level without their stars and they are a determined team to play to the potential that is contained within this team. Even last week against a remarkably bigger Bulldogs team following a short turn around from Origin, they prevailed in a tight contest. After the early season doubts, they are one of the teams to beat and their halves can claim responsibility for that. Contrastingly, the Tigers appear lost for answers. Thankfully, they had a week off prior to this match to prepare for a game that they looked outmatched in every area on the field. Their last win was a surprising to say the least, but it occurred in Round 14, which was over a month ago. Since then, they have had 93 points scored against them and have managed just 48, which has been flattering at times. Travelling up to Brisbane will not make things easier either, especially against a team that they have failed to beat in their past 5 meetings. If they were to win, it would be one of the upsets of the year.
Team News
Broncos = Justin Hodges (rested) returns in the centres, forcing Jordan Kahu to the wing and Daniel Vidot dropping back to an extended bench.
Tigers = Tim Simona (injury) comes back into the centres, with Luke Brooks (injury) also returning at halfback. Keith Galloway (injury) returns to the bench, forcing Jack Buchanan to 18th man.
History
Overall = Broncos 18 Draw 1 Tigers 4
Last 5 matches = Broncos 5 Tigers 0
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 59% Tigers 38%
Form = Broncos 6 wins – Tigers 3 losses
Verdict
Due to the form of both teams, there is only one possible outcome in this match. The Broncos will be far too superior for the Tigers; a team that has barely demonstrated anything to be excited about in recent weeks. If Farrah is able to play, they will be slightly boosted but it is a tough task beating the Broncos at home, let alone on a Sunday afternoon and sitting second last on the ladder. The job then becomes deciding how much the Broncos will win this match by. This is the first time in a while that the Broncos have been a full strength after the Origin period and it will work into their favour. The Tigers average losing margin in their last 4 losses is exactly 13 points, but this could get even worse for the visitors. The Tigers are loss for answers at the moment and with the Broncos high on confidence, this will be a match that they want to win and win well.
Suggested Bet
Broncos 19+ @ $2.10
The X-Factor = Anthony Milford FTS and/or LTS @ $13 – He has been a key player for the Broncos this season and vital to their success. Milford is riding high with confidence at the moment and this makes him dangerous for any team, let alone the Tigers.
Sea Eagles (13th) v Cowboys (2nd)
It is back-to-back MNF fixtures for the Sea Eagles but thankfully, they return home for this game. That will matter little though, as they are facing the second-placed team on the ladder. Last week, the challenges that the Titans threw their way were few and far between. A lot of pressure was on the team to perform and they lifted to a level that their opponents continually failed to match. It was also one of the rare times this season that their entire first-choice backline took the field together. While the win was great, the reality is that they’re still 4-points outside the Top 8. They face an uphill battle to make the 8, with 5/8 remaining matches against Top 8 teams. As for the Cowboys, the trip south shouldn’t be a major issue as they were blessed with a week off following Origin. They have 4 Origin representatives and attacking weapons all across the field. During the Origin period, they have also managed to avoid increasing fatigue and a form slump that can be attributed to player burnout. Normally, they’re attempting to find form in the run home and scramble into the Top 8. That is not the case here and they should head into this game full of confidence; continuing on with the job that they’ve done for majority of the season.
Team News
Sea Eagles = Dunamis Lui (injury) returns at lock, pushing Ligi Sao dropping back to 18th man.
Cowboys = Johnathan Thurston and Michael Morgan (both rested) return to the halves to partner one another. Matt Scott (rested) also comes back into the team, relegating Scott Bolton back to the bench.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles 13 Cowboys 9
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 3 Cowboys 2
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 67% Cowboys 43%
Form = Sea Eagles 2 wins – Cowboys 1 win
Verdict
Amazingly, the 13th ranked team on the ladder is favourites against the team coming 2nd. That’s right, many people believe that the Sea Eagles have a better chance of winning this match compared with their opponents. Sure, Manly will be a better side at home and hope is building after getting back to full strength in the backline and a strong performance last week. In saying that, the hype around their last win is nothing to be caught up in as the Titans have been woeful this year and were woeful in that match. It’s as if the Cowboys have been forgotten about after their week off, which was preceded by a loss. If anything, they will come out refocused now that the pressure of a “winning streak” persisting in most discussions. Their problems on the road that once existed have disbanded this season, having an 87.5% winning record on the road. Brookvale will be a tough place to win at but this is a different Cowboys team. The Sea Eagles will need a few similar performances like the one last Monday against a top-class opponent before they will garner a changed opinion on their chances. The Cowboys have earned their standing at the top of the competition ladder and they should be given more credit for their efforts. Take the Cowboys to get home, in a very exciting Monday Night contest.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.90
Good luck!
Scooby