Raiders (11th) v Knights (15th)

A match between two sides outside the Top 8 is hardly going to get anyone exciting for the sole match on a Friday night, but it is the platform that the Raiders (and their sponsors!) have longed for. Ironically enough, the Knights were the last team the Raiders beat just over a month ago. Since then, they have suffered two disappointing losses, including a heartbreaking 1-point thriller against the Cowboys. This only highlights how inconsistent they can be and their need to improve numerous areas in their game before they will be considered as contenders. However, do not overlook the fact that on their day, they can be just as dangerous as any other team. As for the Knights, the less said about them, the better. Hopefully a week off (like the Raiders) would’ve been a welcome distraction from a season that is spiralling out of control. Unfortunately, they are now in a position where they need to win just about all of their remaining games to even be an outside chance of making the Top 8. Injuries to key players has not made things any easier, but after a strong start to the season and the known talent within their team, a higher level of execution is to be expected. With one last chance to kick-start their season, the Knights will need to make the most of this match against the Raiders on home soil, a place where the hosts have a dismal 14% winning record in 2015.

Team News

Raiders = Joey Leilua (NRL imposed) is out and his spot on the bench is taken by Jarrod Kennedy. Josh Papalli is expected to back up after Origin.

Knights = Jarrod Mullen and Tyrone Roberts both return to the halves, forcing Kurt Gidley to fullback. Kade Snowden (suspension) will start at prop, forcing Paterika Vaivai back to 18th man, alongside David Fa’alogo (injury) in jersey 15. Jeremy Smith (injury) returns to take Robbie Rochow’s (injured) spot in the second row. Beau Scott (suspension in Origin) is out and is likely to be replaced by Joseph Tapine.

History

Overall = Raiders 15 Draw 1 Knights 15

Last 5 matches = Raiders 3 Knights 2

Form = Raiders 2 losses – Knights 6 losses

Verdict

If the Raiders are serious about making one last run towards the Finals, they need to start with a win here. The Knights will not be a pushover though; having their first choice halves returning will be a major boost to their chances. Not only does it increase their attacking ability, but also it will add direction, as well as release pressure on other players. Still, there is a lot to be desired from this team, especially considering how poor they were in their last match against the Broncos. Unusually, the Raiders will need to overcome a negative home record but will have an advantage of consistency within player selections. They should also take confidence from the fact that they were dominant over the Knight just over a month ago. Nevertheless, the Knights will have a different make up now and it may not be as easy for the Raiders with such a poor record at home. That isn’t to suggest that the visitors will prevail, but it will be a lot closer than their first meeting this year.

Suggested Bet

Raiders 1-12 @ $3.10

 

Panthers (9th) v Roosters (3rd)

The Panthers continue to prove people wrong and this week is arguable their toughest test since beginning their 2-game winning streak began. Last week they were able to dispose of the Rabbitohs in strong performance; relying on their strong defence to hold their opponents off while making the most of their attacking opportunities when in positive field position. Considering the Panthers are struggling to maintain a first-rate roster due to the amount of injuries they have suffered, the success they’re enjoying is invaluable. The Roosters are in a similar patch of form; a 3-game winning streak that has confidence returning to their team. It has not all been ideal though, with their most recent victory over the Titans dull and tiresome. That is not a guide of what is to be expected, rather a compliment to their opponents at the time and a reminder that this Roosters team is one that is still building. They are enormously talented across the park and as they creep up the ladder, they are emerging as one of the teams to beat. It will be hard to anyone to stop them, let alone a team that isn’t at full strength. Nevertheless, the Panthers have proven many people wrong before and they will relish the chance to do it again.

Team News

Panthers = Unchanged.

Roosters = Unchanged, with all Origin players expected to back up.

History

Overall = Panthers 15 Roosters 16

Last 5 matches = Panthers 1 Roosters 4

At Pepper Stadium = Panthers 54% Roosters 54%

Form = Panthers 2 wins – Roosters 3 wins

Verdict

The Panthers continue to prove doubters wrong and they will need every bit of form they have developed in recent weeks to score a win here. The Roosters have class across the park that is only going to get better as they aim to peak in the run towards the Finals. Despite being flat in their recent matches, they have still been able to capture victory and that will only add to their confidence. Things will be tight though; despite their injury woes, the Panthers still have a talented set of players on their roster. They will aim to take the game to their opponents in the forwards, with the Roosters proving vulnerable if they’re unable to gain early dominance in this area. They will also pressure the halves, with several questions still lingering around their precise execution in attacking positions. The Panthers will have a good chance of winning, but the Roosters should just prevail at the end of this contest, with their sheer size overpowering their opponents.

Suggested Bet

Roosters 1-12 @ $2.80

Something to crow about = Roosters 7-12 @ $5 – If you want some more value for your investment, consider this option. The line is set at a converted try, with their average margin in their last 3 victories at 6.3 points. With increasing confidence, this should grow and add value to your investment if you seek it.

Familiar Territory = Michael Jennings FTS and/or LTS @ $11 – This was the ground where Jennings made a name for himself, before switching to the Roosters. He knows this place well and will appreciate this opportunity. Also, he needs to salvage something after a poor showing on Wednesday.

 

Bulldogs (8th) v Broncos (1st)

Both teams would’ve been thankful for the bye in Round 17, as it gave their players a chance to overcome fatigue and focus themselves for strong run home. Prior to that, the Bulldogs were almost unstoppable, hammering the Storm and the Panthers in consecutive weeks. The score line against the Panthers flattered their opponents to some degree and if the Bulldogs made more of their chances, like they did against the Storm, we would’ve had a more accurate display from them. They do not need to stray away from their game plan, roll through their opponents in the forwards and force them to try and stop them. It appears that each week they are unearthing more power, with their win over the Storm coinciding with the arrival of an exciting prospect by the name of Shaun Lane. The Broncos success has revolved around their halves and their increasing autonomy in their combination together. It was a huge question mark that was lingering over them prior to the season but for now, it is working. The post-Origin period is always a difficult one for them and with so many players featuring; it will be challenging to reduce their fatigue. Nonetheless, this is the exact moment where the other players within the squad need to step up and take responsibility; because sitting at the top of the ladder in the run home gives their opponents a target to aim for each week.

Team News

Bulldogs = Josh Jackson (suspension) returns to the starting side at second row, forcing boom rookie Shaun Lane to 18th man. James Graham is an outside chance of returning.

Broncos = Justin Hodges (rested) is expected to be out following Origin, with Jack Reed (injury) returning to cover for him. Sam Thaiday (rested) is also back, replacing Josh Maguire (injured) at prop. Daniel Vidot (injury) will start on the wing, forcing Corey Oates back to the bench.

History

Overall = Bulldogs 13 Draw 1 Broncos 18

Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 2 Broncos 3

At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 56% Broncos 53%

Form = Bulldogs 2 wins – Broncos 5 wins

Verdict

It is surprising to see the Broncos so far out in the odds, especially considering that they’re the competition leaders heading into this round. It isn’t as if they have landed in this position by luck, it has been through strong play and dominating their opponents for majority a match. The same level is expected from them here and they will be a tough team to beat. The Bulldogs have been devastating in their 2 recent victories, mainly through the execution of their forwards; however the Broncos will be out to halt their momentum in this area. Fatigue will limit them to some extent, but you think that they would still be able to take the match to their opponents, as it is what they have relied on for majority of 2015. This doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to win; it just brings them into the contest. Making a call between the two sides, the Broncos do not deserve to be at the odds that are being offered for them. Although with players backing up from Origin and a trip south, the Bulldogs are in the box seat. An upset from the Broncos wouldn’t shock, but the Bulldogs are the team to beat. With things appearing closer between the two teams, the best option is investing around the margin of victory being less than a converted-try.

Suggested Bet

Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.85

 

Warriors (7th) v Storm (5th)

The Warriors have maintained contact with the Top 8, thanks to consecutive consistent performances that has always been an issue for them to harness. Their win over the Raiders in Round 16 highlighted just how dangerous they can be and is perhaps a guide as to what to expect from them in the run towards the Finals. It was no surprise to see their victory correspond with the improving form of halfback, Shaun Johnson. He is key to the Warriors success and leadership is needed from him each week. The fact that they’re also to play 4 of their next 5 matches at home will mean that this stretch of matches is crucial to their 2015 campaign. The Storm are in an unusual position, a 3-game losing streak and danger of slipping out of the Top 8. Thankfully, a favourable points difference is working their way but even that could disappear quickly. They’re only 2 points ahead of 9th and 10th placed on the ladder and unless they wrestle themselves away from this losing streak; they might be faced with a situation of performing each week with fatigue. This is most notably going to affect Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk, who without Billy Slater in the team, will be burdened with extra responsibility. However with players of this quality within the team and a fairly strong forward pack, you can never write off their chances.

Team News

Warriors = Ryan Hoffman (injury) is now out after Wednesday, with a replacement yet to be named. Konrad Hurrell is also a chance of missing out, with David Fusitu’a to come into the team

Storm = Cooper Cronk (injury) is named to start, assuming he has a successful return from Origin. This forces Ben Hampton back to the bench in place of Jordan McLean (injured).

History

Overall = Warriors 15 Draw 2 Storm 18

Last 5 matches = Warriors 2 Storm 3

At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 59% Storm 53%

Form = Warriors 2 wins – Storm 3 losses

Verdict

It’s very rare that a team like the Storm suffer through a prolonged losing streak. However if they are unable to win this game, that is exactly the situation they will be faced with. Having their Origin players return will be a boost to their chances, although aside from Cronk, they were all present in their last loss to at the hands of the Bulldogs. His inclusion will also increase their chances, but it doesn’t mean that they automatically win this match. You can never take the Warriors with any confidence, more hope, that they will be able to replicate their recent efforts. Shaun Johnson appears to be finding his best form again; a catalyst that is needed if the Warriors are to remain successful. If that is the case, they will have to rely on their defence to remain strong. These two sides always enjoy a thrilling match and this game is expected to be no different. However the Storm are still lacking some quality in the forwards; to match against bigger sides like the Bulldogs, Broncos and in this case, the Warriors. With this is mind and the Warriors form (consistency) improving, they should have what it takes on home soil to narrowly overcome their opponents.

Suggested Bet

Warriors 1-12 @ $2.85

When he fires, they win! = Shaun Johnson to score/Warriors to win @ $4.25 – He is a key man for the Warriors; so much so that his performance could mean the difference between them winning and losing. Johnson needs to take control of the game throughout and that means having his fingerprints across all Warriors plays. This gives him a great chance of opening up the scoring for his team and leading the way to victory.

Sharks (10th) v Dragons (4th)

Things didn’t go to plan for the Sharks last week against the Sea Eagles, but they are returning home to grab revenge on their cross-town rivals. Back in Round 12, they were embarrassed by the Dragons 42-6 after scoring the first try in that match. Since then they have revived their form, winning 3 out of 4 matches, including victories over the Roosters and Cowboys. Only 2-points outside the Top 8, each loss is a set back and they need to keep things simple. Despite sitting in an ideal position on the ladder, the Dragons are in a slump having lost their past 4 matches. Last week they were unable to overcome a weakened Cowboys side, as they too were unable to field a full-strength team. It not as if alarm bells should be ringing, but a testament to the quality of the competition, the 4th-place team on the ladder is only 2-points ahead of 10th. A few more similar outcomes and the Dragons could find themselves struggling to make the Finals. Their attack is still predictable to some extent and unless Dugan is around to compliment Marshall and Widdop, they can be shut down. They will take confidence from their last win over the Sharks, although the home side are a completely different unit to what they were back then. The Dragons are faced with a new set of challenges and if they’re unsuccessful in this match, next week will only increase the pressure that this team is potentially facing.

Team News

Sharks = Paul Gallen (Origin) and Michael Ennis (suspension) have both been named in the starting side, pushing Pat Politoni out of the team and Chris Heighington to 18th man. If Gallen is out, Heighington will come into the team after being cleared at the judiciary.

Dragons = Josh Dugan (Origin) is named to start at fullback, but may miss this match. If this is the case, Justin Hunt would move from the wing, with a player yet to be named there. Jason Nightingale (injury) also comes back into the team after missing last week. Will Matthew (suspension) and Joel Thompson (injury) return in the forwards, moving Jake Marketo to the bench. Heath L’Estrange (injury), while Trent Merrin (suspension in Origin) will be replaced on the bench by 18th man, Mark Ioane.

History

Overall = Sharks 16 Draw 1 Dragons 18

Last 5 matches = Sharks 1 Dragons 4

At Remondis Stadium = Sharks 54% Dragons 40%

Form = Sharks 1 loss – Dragons 4 losses

Verdict

With injuries plaguing the Dragons, it appears as though their season hangs in the balance. It was expected last week that Widdop and Marshall could pick up the burden, but without a player like Dugan in the team, their attack is one-dimensional. Even if he does play, they are not assured of victory, however it will be a massive boost for their chances of winning this match. The Sharks have it all in front of them, with their pack needing to make amends for their poor display against the Sea Eagles. Unlike to the Dugan situation, it shouldn’t matter too match whether or not Gallen plays, with the Sharks growing accustomed to taking the field without him. They have learnt to function without him and now rely on players like Graham and Lewis to get them through. Ennis will also be a welcome inclusion, after he was unable to mirror his form for the Sharks in Origin. The home side are the way to go, as they aim for revenge against their cross-town rival. It will be tight, with probably little points scored; as both sides enjoy a grinding, arm-wrestle of a contest that will have defence dominating the outcome of this match.

Suggested Bet

Sharks 1-12 @ $2.90

Tri your luck = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.75 – As mentioned above, this game is probably going to be a dour affair. With that in mind and the two teams will tighten up defensively and allow neither team to get the edge over them with the ball in hand.

Titans (13th) v Sea Eagles (14th)

With both teams languishing at the bottom of the ladder, this game is hardly anything to be excited about. Then again, this is the first time the Titans will face DCE since his infamous “backflip” decision to walk out on an agreement. That issue alone is enough to make you want to switch on this match. Aside from that, both teams are faced with the opportunity to now make a run towards the Finals and perhaps salvage something out of 2015. The two teams are 4 and 6 points, respectively, out of the Top 8 and only a slight chance. For the Titans, they will be desperate to break a 2-game losing streak that was interrupted last week by the Bye. Prior to that, their 2-game slide left a lot to be desired. The fact that they were close in losing to the Roosters flattered them and was a greater indication of how poor the home team was, rather than their accomplishments. The Sea Eagles will take winning form into this match, following a strong victory over the Sharks. It was one of the few times this season where their forwards were able to win the battle in the middle of the field and set up victory. They still have a host of talent spread across the park and the fact that they sit so far down the ladder is perhaps an indication of the turmoil that is taking place behind closed doors; something which may only surface at the conclusion of the season or even in a few years time. For now though, they will consider themselves a chance on the back of last week’s effort.

Team News

Titans = James Roberts moves back to the centres, with Josh Hoffman (injury) back at 5/8. He will partner Daniel Mortimer, with Chad Reedman to start at hooker. Ryan James (injury) returns to start in the second row, forcing Dave Taylor back to the bench, alongside Matt Robinson.

Sea Eagles = Justin Horo is named on the bench, with Jayden Hodges at 18th man.

History

Overall = Titans 5 Sea Eagles 8

Last 5 matches = Titans 2 Sea Eagles 3

At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 49% Sea Eagles 57%

Form = Titans 2 losses – Sea Eagles 1 win

Verdict

The odds suggest that this will be one-way traffic and the Sea Eagles will dominate, although you cannot be so sure. The Titans will have a siege mentality to this match and a win against DCE and the club that he chose to stay with, will mean a lot more than just 2-competition points. On face value, the Titans have the capabilities to match the Sea Eagles and will need to focus on dominating them in the forwards above all else. It is a proven formula against Manly in 2015, regardless of how well the rest of the team is playing. The Titans are not out of this contest and are going to give themselves a good chance of winning. They will be in striking distance of the Sea Eagles in the closing moments of this game and dare I say, in with a chance of winning. While they’re outclassed mainly in the halves and outside backs, the polished Sea Eagles team that we have come to know and expect isn’t around in 2015. In a two-horse race, I would recommend the Sea Eagles, but in terms of an investment, t the Titans are too good to overlook at the line.

Suggested Bet

Titans +8.5 @ $1.85

Centring on Robbo = James Roberts FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – He is moving back to his favoured position of centre and this increases his chance of crossing the line first. He will now have extra room prior to the defensive line and despite coming up against a very capable opponent; he will back his speed and agility to get him through.

Good luck!

Scooby