Just the four matches this weekend heading into the deciding game three of Origin next week, but you cannot downplay how critical a win this weekend is for most of these clubs especially with the clash between the Dragons and Cowboys fighting over a top two spot.
Panthers (10th) v Rabbitohs (5th)
Both sides head into this game with confidence, following several lacklustre performances. All of a sudden, the form of the two teams has shifted and they are again being thought of as contenders. The Panthers went about their victory with style; managing to ignore a horror injury toll and record a strong win over the Tigers. Many, myself included, wrote off their chances due to the players that were unavailable. However, Ivan Cleary had his players motivated for this game and they were clearly playing with purpose. The same can be said for the Rabbitohs, who contained a rejuvenated Manly team. They had a week off to get over their poor loss to the Tigers and immediately looked like a different side. The Sea Eagles were strong early, yet the Souths defensive line held sturdy and threw caution towards the Sea Eagles in attack. There was a free-flowing movement to their play that had disappeared in previous weeks. Even without Adam Reynolds, who went off with concussion in the early stages and failed to return, they were able to build pressure with attacking kicks and domination of the ruck by their forwards. These two teams will get a good look at one another, before they begin the run home in Round 21. The Panthers chances hang in the balance and with their newfound form; while the Rabbitohs will not want to allow their opponents to grow in confidence.
Team News
Panthers = Unchanged.
Rabbitohs = Alex Johnston shifts to fullback to cover for GI (Origin), with Joel Reddy named to come onto the wing. Glenn Stewart is named to start in the second row, pushing Chris McQueen to lock and Ben Lowe to the bench.
History
Overall = Panthers 12 Rabbitohs 11
Last 5 matches = Panthers 1 Rabbitohs 4
At Peppers Stadium = Panthers 54% Rabbitohs 36%
Form = Panthers 1 win – Rabbitohs 1 win
Verdict
Despite a strong and positive win last week against a team that upstaged their opponents only 3 weeks earlier, the Panthers will have a very tough time attempting to win here. The Rabbitohs were renewed last week against the Sea Eagles and there is no reason why that form will not continue. What does send alarm bells ringing for the visitors is that they’re in a similar situation to when they were beaten by the Tigers; that is without Inglis and Reynolds lacking game time. Nevertheless, they would’ve learnt from that performance, knowing full well that heading into this game they are going to have to treat the Panthers with an enormous amount of respect. That being said, the home team will be a chance of keeping things tight; however last week the Rabbitohs demonstrated that their confidence is returning. This means scoring points towards the middle part of the match, on the back of dominating play from their forwards, will be the difference between the two side. It will not be a complete blow out, but the Rabbitohs should do it comfortably within the end.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 13+ @ $3.10
Winning with this margin = Rabbitohs 13-18 @ $6.50 – Looking between the lines, the Rabbitohs should have control of the match but the Panthers will not allow a complete blow out. With this in mind, there is plenty of value around investing in this market as confidence returns to the Rabbitohs attacking movements.
Walk right in = Dylan Walker FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – By his standards, it has been a quiet few weeks for Walker. He hasn’t regained the form that he was in prior to injuring his hand, but he is getting close to it. The Rabbitohs will be looking to involve him into the game as much as possible and he will benefit from the time he spent in the NSW camp leading up to Game 2.
Dragons (4th) v Cowboys (2nd)
The Dragons suffered their 3rd straight loss last week, this time at the hand of the Eels. Ideally, it didn’t occur on a Monday but it did see them again slip down the table. Now, with injuries and representative selection limiting the strength of their team, they will face an uphill battle to remain in the Top 4 as they have already had their allotted 2-byes. The grinding loss to the Eels also highlighted how dour their attack can be, as the Eels defence continually hampered their momentum. Thankfully, they’re able to retain Gareth Widdop and Benji Marshal throughout their period, as they will look to them for guidance and leadership. The Cowboys also suffered a loss in Round 16, but that was their first in 12 weeks. It brought to an end an 11-game winning streak that has seen some fantastic rugby league played. They were disappointed with their efforts, as they gave up an 18-nil lead and allowed the Sharks back into the contest with simple errors. They were without JT who was rested and you can’t help but feel that with him in the team, the Cowboys would’ve put the finishing touches on the Sharks and completely shut them out of the contest long before they begun their resurgence. They will be without him again here, as well as several other Origin players but they were able to handle the Tigers in similar circumstances in Round 11. A win here would be a tremendous boost to their club, as it would mean that they would take winning form into a bye next week, allowing the squad a chance to refresh before the run home.
Team News
Dragons = Jason Nightingale is named to play fullback for Josh Dugan (Origin), while Trent Merrins place is taken by Mike Cooper (starting) and Nathan Green (bench). Dylan Farrell (injured) is replaced on the wing by Yaw Kiti Glymin, while Mitch Rein (suspension) returns at hooker. Heath L’Estrange is forced to the bench, while the new look forward pack loses Tyson Frizell and Joel Thompson, replaced by Jake Marketo. George Rose and Rory O’Brien come onto the bench.
Cowboys = Ray Thompson (injury) replaces Michael Morgan (Origin) at halfback, as they were without Thurston (rested – now Origin) last week. Ben Hannant and Sam Hoare start for James Tamou and Matt Scott (both Origin), with he vacant spots on the bench filled by Scott Bolton and Cameron King.
History
Overall = Dragons 12 Cowboys 13
Last 5 matches = Dragons 2 Cowboys 3
At WIN Stadium = Dragons 62% Cowboys 42%
Form = Dragons 3 losses – Cowboys 1 loss
Verdict
The Dragons are facing a pivotal point in their season, with a 4-game losing streak on the horizon; they should be able to handle an understrength Cowboys team. However selecting a winning in this game isn’t as easier as it seems, with the Cowboys holding a very strong siege mentality in the absence of their key players. What does work into the favour of the home team is that their opponents are on the road and will have a tough time of holding the Dragons halves. This losing streak will only go on for so long and playing in a hostile Wollongong environment will provide the ideal opportunity for the home team to get back on track. If the Dragons do not make the most of this opportunity, they are in real danger of creating a slide that will continue to affect this team in their run towards the Finals. Take them to get the job done, but just as confusing is selecting a margin. The Dragons are one team that never finds points easy to come by, but after a few weeks of leaking just as many in defence, expect them to be extremely tight when the Cowboys have possession of the ball. This should allow the home team to pull away from their opponents, not scoring too many total points in the match but getting home comfortably in another arm wrestle of a contest.
Suggested Bet
Dragons 13+ @ $3.20
Sea Eagles (16th) v Sharks (9th)
The Sea Eagles loss to the Rabbitohs last week reaffirmed their position at the bottom of the ladder on point’s difference. Hopes were high with consistency appearing to return with a win against the Tigers, but as it has proven several times this season, a win against them is hardly anything to be excited about. They were missing a polished level of execution that has become customary at Manly, making simple errors in attacking positions and releasing the pressure on their opponents. On top of that, they were again dominated in the forwards; an area that Geoff Toovey will have to address if they’re to drag themselves off the bottom of the ladder. The Sharks had no such issues, extending their winning streak to 3-games with an impressive win over the Cowboys on the road. It reminded fans just what this team is capable of when they are playing with confidence. The core group of players remains together again and Shane Flanagan will relish the consistency that they have enjoyed throughout this representative period. Several players have lifted to lead this team and all of a sudden, they are sitting just outside the Top 8. Their points difference isn’t ideal, but a win here on a tough 3-game road trip, will make the return home next week even more pleasurable.
Team News
Sea Eagles = Willie Mason (injury) returns to the bench, with Josh Starling forced to 18th man. Some word around that Jamie Lyon could be a late inclusion.
Sharks = Unchanged initially, but Michael Ennis (suspension) is replaced by Pat Politoni at hooker.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles 15 Sharks 8
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 4 Sharks 1
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 67% Sharks 25%
Form = Sea Eagles 1 loss – Sharks 3 wins
Verdict
When playing at Brookvale Oval, the odds are always going to favour the home team and rightly so. Manly are a different outfit at Brookvale and will not want to give this game up easily to the Sharks. However there are a few other factors to consider, most notably how poor the Sea Eagles were with the ball in hand last week. There were stages where the game was on the line and for one reason or another; they were unable to close out the match. Their forwards are unable to dominate the middle of the field and up against the Sharks, it seems as if a similar result is expected. The visitors have adopted a winning mentality and a win here could push them into the Top 8. The loss of Michael Ennis is a major one, although it is something they can overcome. Their forwards still appear too strong for the Sea Eagles and while they’re probably weaker in the outside backs, they should still be superior on the scoreboard. Expect a different performance from Manly though, they would’ve been disappointed with their efforts last week and will know what needs to be done here. Things will be very tight in this match and with both teams not giving away much in defence, assume that scoring points will be very difficult and the Sharks will get home…just!
Suggested Bet
Sharks 1-12 @ $4
Held for points = Either team under 6.5 points @ $3 – With this game expected to be tight, a winner may not prevail until the closing minutes of the game. If this is the case and you do not want to make a clear call on who will win, then invest in this option and watch the two teams fight it out.
Tigers (14th) v Eels (12th)
The Tigers continued to disappoint, this time it was at Leichhardt Oval against a seemingly vulnerable Panthers team. That loss saw them slip down the ladder, only separated on point’s difference from the two teams below them. It was frustrating for all involved with the club, with noise now growing around the credibility of coach Jason Taylor. In his defence, he has a young and inexperienced team that will need time in the NRL to establish their positions. Nevertheless, the lack of effort, execution and consistency is contributing to the increasing discontent. While the Eels were in plenty of trouble off the field, they turned in a controlled effort to roll the Dragons at Pirtek Stadium. Letting their football do the talking, the Eels recorded a narrow 4-point win over their opponents to prove what they’re capable of on their day. The problems within their team that they had experienced weeks prior seemingly disappeared and all their key players clicked into form together. It would’ve been comforting to coach Brad Arthur, but also frustrating as many were left wondering why they had been unable to produce similar efforts on a week to week basis. If they can, they will keep alive their very slim Finals aspirations but need to start with a win here against the Tigers, a team that is looking lost for answers and certainly weaker heading into this match.
Team News
Tigers = Sauaso Sue will start at prop for Aaron Woods (Origin), alongside Dene Halatau at hooker, who replaces Robbie Farrah (Origin). Manaia Cherrington comes onto the bench to fill a utility role, while Nathan Milone replaces Tim Simona (injured) in the centres.
Eels = Will Hopoate (Origin) is replaced by Ryan Morgan, with Bureta Faraimo covering the vacant spot on the wing. Mana Ma’u (suspension) returns in the back row, pushing David Gower back to the bench and Joseph Paulo to 18th man.
History
Overall = Tigers 13 Draw 1 Eels 16
Last 5 matches = Tigers 4 Eels 1
At ANZ Stadium = Tigers 43% Eels 38%
Form = Tigers 2 losses – Eels 2 wins
Verdict
When the Eels have momentum and belief, they are a difficult team to stop and after last week’s victory, expect a confident team to be taking the field. The Tigers have been dreadful to say the least and despite wanting to make amends for poor efforts, they will still find it difficult. Jason Taylor is doing a decent job of covering the problems within the team during press conferences, but they will be on full show over 80 minutes. The loss of Farrah and Woods means that others will have to step up and the Eels would consider this a missed opportunity if they were to lose. They were strong last week against a structured Dragons defence and had a lesser team been playing them, the margin of victory would’ve been far more. The Eels will be out to make a strong statement in this match and there is no better way of doing that then piling on the points against a team that is struggling. If the Tigers do not have the right attitude, it could get very ugly for them at the end of this game.
Suggested Bet
Eels 13+ @ $3.10
Hit by a semi! = Semi Radradra FTS and/or LTS @ $7 – He scored 3 last week and has an amazing strike rate in the NRL. The Eels know that he is an attacking weapon for them and they need to bring him into the match as much as possible. On top of that, the Tigers players are going to have a difficult time trying to stop him.
Good luck!
Scooby
