Broncos (1st) v Knights (15th)
The Broncos will battle a short turnaround here from their match on Sunday, where their defensive line imitated a brick wall. They were gallant as they limited the Storm to just 12-points, despite conceding 11 line dropouts, just 43% possession and making 418 tackles (v Storm 319!). Their statement reminded fans that they currently belong at the top of the competition ladder. The Storm were weakened, however they were very determined to win that match. There was no such luck for the Knights, who also have the same amount of time to prepare for this match and are coming off a loss. To make matters worse, they have to contend with a trip north in a week where they have firmed in the “most losses for the year” market. Newcastle is not a happy place currently and aside from a few flashes of individual brilliance, there was little to be excited about. They only lost by 2-points, although the game slipped away from them between the 50-60minute mark where the Sharks score 3 converted tries. They are not the team that many thought they would be; with injuries posing a problem to them they are unable to find answers. This match will again be a tough test for them with another loss just about spelling the end to their chances for 2015.
Team News
Broncos = Corey Parker (rested) is back at lock, replacing Sam Thaiday who is being given a chance to freshen up during Origin. Justin Hodges (rested) is also back in the centres. Jack Reed (injured) has been ruled out, with Jordan Kahu back into the centres, Corey Oates coming onto the wing and Dale Copley onto the bench.
Knights = Paterika Vaivai is named to start at prop for Kade Snowden (susended), while Chris Houston (injured) has been replaced by Robbie Rochow. Clint Newton and Sam Mataora come onto the bench. Word around that Jarrod Mullen (injury) may be a late inclusion.
History
Overall = Broncos 19 Draw 1 Knights 11
Last 5 matches = Broncos 3 Draw 1 Knights 1
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 59% Knights 44%
Form = Broncos 4 wins – Knights 4 losses
Verdict
The Broncos are heavily favoured in this match and rightly so considering the form around both teams. The Knights are lost for answers currently and if they were to win, it would be one of the largest upsets of the season. Although it must be noted that the Broncos may come out in this game a little slow following their tough match against the Storm. Ultimately, it shouldn’t matter too much, as they will be able to prevail in the end by a large enough margin. Their forwards are superior to the Knights and with the players unavailable for their opponents, expect them to roll through them in the middle of the field with little resistance. This will create a strong platform for their halves to build off and with a vastly different team to the one they faced last week, the Broncos are going to relish the extra freedom they have at the defensive line. This match becomes a matter of how much the home team can win by and with all things considered, it could get ugly for the Knights, but not a complete blowout; meaning that they’ll cover the line, but not get beyond 3 converted tries.
Suggested Bet
Broncos 13-18 @ $4.50
Covering up and going over = Broncos -14.5/Over 42.5 @ $3.25 – Combine the line with the points spread and the value increases dramatically. The Broncos proved last week that their defence is strong and but the Knights found a way to score points last week. With the expected margin of victory, the scoreboard may blow out more than anticipated.
Rabbitohs (6th) v Sea Eagles (16th)
The Rabbitohs will be rejuvenated after a week off, after appearing to need it following their loss to the Tigers. Along with the Eels, they had to wait the longest in the competition for a break and it was beginning to show in their play. Hopes were high and they appeared unbeatable in that match, as Adam Reynolds was named to return to their team. Instead, they were ambushed by the Tigers and were really let down by their forwards, who failed to take the game to the young and powerful Tigers pack. According to their lofty standards, 2015 has been disappointing to date, but they still sit inside the Top 8 and there would be several other teams around the league willing to swap positions with them. If form is anything, the Sea Eagles should be favourites for this match, as they came out and beat the Tigers last week. Nevertheless, they still sit at the bottom of the competition ladder with hopes only growing that they can turn around their season and enjoy a positive run of form. They are capable of that, although it will be difficult, as teams are only going to lift when playing them now that they know what they’re capable of. It could be a danger game for the Rabbitohs, with a loss potentially knocking them out of the Top 8 for the first time this season.
Team News
Rabbitohs = Greg Inglis is back at fullback, forcing Alex Johnston back to the wing. Tim Grant comes onto the bench for Jason Clark. There is an outside chance that Issac Luke and Glenn Stewart may return from injury.
Sea Eagles = Unchanged, aside from Justin Horo being added to the team as 18th man.
History
Overall = Rabbitohs 11 Sea Eagles 17
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 3 Sea Eagles 2
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 54% Sea Eagles 54%
Form = Rabbitohs 1 loss – Sea Eagles 1 win
Verdict
Many are expecting the week off to turn around the flat performance of the Rabbitohs and to some extent, they will be correct. However things will not be that easy in this match as the Sea Eagles will be buoyed by the chance they have to salvage their season. The problem for them is whether or not their forwards can provide a strong platform in the middle of the field. There is no doubt that the Sea Eagles have talented outside backs, but unless their halves have room to move the rest of the team will struggle for momentum. There are still lingering question marks around the Rabbitohs, but with a second game for Adam Reynolds’ since returning and their pride on the line, they will be stronger. Things will be tight though; the home team will need every effort to get them over the line because the Sea Eagles are a team that is going to continually come after them.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3.15
Warriors (7th) v Raiders (10th)
The Warriors bounced back against the Titans last week, comprehensively beating them on the road 36-14. That effort was needed from them, as they were upset at home by the Roosters the week prior. Everything clicked for them in that match, as Shaun Johnson had the ball on a string and caused nightmares for the Titans defensive line. He is key to the Warriors success and if they’re to be a contended, Johnson has to find consistency within his performances. In saying that, his platform was established by his forwards and their ability to continually roll across the advantage line. While the Warriors were left feeling positive, the Raiders were heart-broken after a last-second field goal from Thurston sealed the win for the Cowboys. The Raiders were in with a large chance, especially considering the fatigue that was impacting upon the key Cowboys players. Yet the Raiders were left pondering what may have been if they were able to take their chances. Thankfully for them, they are still within striking distance of the Top 8 and will need to focus on the positives from that performance. For starters, they pushed one of the top teams in the competition right until the end; thanks to some powerful play in the middle of the field. The same will be needed again here, as they contend with a difficult trip across to NZ, as well as the large frames that take the field for the Warriors.
Team News
Warriors = Tuimoala Lolohea is back on the wing, while both Jacob Lillyman and Ryan Hoffman will start the match. This forces Raymond Faitala-Mariner back to the bench, alongside Albert Vete.
Raiders = Unchanged, but it must be noted that Joseph Leilua is named as 18th man.
History
Overall = Warriors 52% Raiders 48%
Last 5 matches = Warriors 5 Raiders 0
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 58% Raiders 29%
Form = Warriors 1 win – Raiders 1 loss
Verdict
The Warriors inconsistent performance throughout the year makes this match very even. Despite the fact that they’re playing at home, they are never assured of victory based on form alone. They will need every advantage that playing at home offers them, as well as a similar performance to last week from Shaun Johnson throughout the match. In saying that, the Raiders are a team that possess a stronger record on the road in 2015 (71%) and they will be up for this contest after letting last week slip away from them. Johnson’s form is also unpredictable, with the suggestion that he only plays his best football when his team is dominating a game. Unfortunately, the Warriors rely heavily on his contribution and will need him at his best. This match will be tight over 80 minutes, with neither side expected to dominate and control this match. In saying that, the Warriors forward pack should have enough power to establish the winning platform throughout the match; but it may come down to the final few plays of the match before the outcome of this game is decided.
Suggested Bet
Warriors 1-12 @ $2.90
Tui-good for you = Tuimoala Lolohea FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – He was out of the side last week but his form prior to that was great. He knows his way to the try line, regardless of the position he is playing. Expect the Warriors to confidently attack to his edge of the field and attempt to get the ball in his hands as much as possible.
Cowboys (2nd) v Sharks (9th)
Heading home from Canberra victorious is just what the Cowboys wanted, extending their winning streak to 11-matches and consolidating their standing at the top of the competition ladder. They had a momentary stay in the top spot, only to be knocked off as the Broncos won on Sunday. Aside from winning this match, the Cowboys will want to win their next to and take their streak to 13 as they head into their final bye high on confidence. Their play has been exciting to say the least, leaving their mark on opponents and suggesting that if this can be maintained, they may feature in their first GF since 2005. Standing in their way here though is the Sharks, a team that is coming off a win and is in the midst of a 3-game road stretch. This is arguably the toughest match that they’ll face in that run, with the Cowboys looking better than ever. The Sharks will have to rely on the same belief that saw them claw back the Knights last Sunday and score 18-points in 10minutes to turn the game on its head. That effort saw some fantastic individually play from Jack Bird, while the forwards and support play from the outside backs also deserves a special mention. It hasn’t been the greatest season for the Sharks yet but all of a sudden, they have risen up the table and are now only outside the Top 8 due to their -39 points difference; a position that will not want to lose without a fight.
Team News
Cowboys = Johnathan Thurston (rested) is out of this match, with Michael Morgan (rested) taking his place at halfback. Patrick Kaufusi and Cameron King come onto the bench, with Robert Lui named as 18th man.
Sharks = Unchanged, except for Paul Gallen being named as 18th man however he has not travelled north with the team.
History
Overall = Cowboys 13 Sharks 18
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 4 Sharks 1
Form = Cowboys 11 wins – Sharks 2 wins
Verdict
Without JT in their team, the Cowboys face an uphill battle to win this match. Sure, they were successful without him back in Round 11 over the Tigers, but the Sharks will pose a different challenge altogether. They will be up for the contest and sense that there is a chance for them to extend their winning streak to 3. The Cowboys will not be easy to move past and they will relish the chance to come back to their home ground after a tough trip to Canberra. The Sharks are improving each week and have a mental toughness on their side. Players like Luke Lewis and Wade Graham are leading this team well and they’re well support by Ennis and Bird. They will need to be at their best though, perhaps facing a tough time after backing up from a close match on Sunday and a trip north. Still, the timing is right for them to bring the reign of the Cowboys to an abrupt halt, albeit, only decided in the final moments.
Suggested Bet
Sharks @ $2.65
Play it safe = Sharks +6.5 @ $1.80 – If you’re not sold on the Sharks winning this match, then take them at the line. It is a very generous margin that is being offered and with the confidence growing within their team, it is unlikely that the Sharks will allow their opponents to get too far away from them on the scoreboard.
Tri your luck = Either team under 6.5 points @ $3 – There is plenty of value on offer if you just want to enjoy a close contest. Surprisingly, many believe that the Cowboys will be able to competently handle their opponents. With this unlikely and a close match expect, the winners are the punters, who can just sit back and cheer for a close game.
Eels (14th) v Dragons (3rd)
After yet another tumultuous week off the field, the Eels will be hoping to come out in this match invigorated following their first bye for 2015. Along with the Rabbitohs, they had to wait the longest in the competition but their standing on the NRL ladder hardly suggested that this was to blame for their poor form. Rather it has been a lack of execution, a factor that was somewhat avoided prior to the week-off, as they were victorious against a weaken Storm outfit in Melbourne 26-22. Consistency is still an issue, with a 66% completion rate almost taking victory away from them in that match. Unlike their opponents, the Dragons will be hoping to bounce back from yet another MNF loss (all 5 for the season have been on MNF). They were in with a chance of winning the contest as the closing minutes ticked away, but were unable to build enough pressure on the Roosters to force a defensive error. As frustrating as it would’ve been, the Dragons will know that they only have themselves to blame for the loss and can go about rectifying the problem in coming weeks. On top of that, they will also be out to make amends for the last time they met the Eels at this stadium, a 36-nil loss in Round 10 2014. With the two sides dramatically different since the, it would be startling to see a similar outcome over a year later.
Team News
Eels = Corey Norman shifts to fullback for Reece Robinson (injured), with Luke Kelly coming back into the team to play 5/8.Will Hopoate (Origin) comes back into the team in the centres, forcing Ryan Morgan out to the wing. Cody Nelson is named to play hooker for Nathan Peats (injured), while Danny Wicks will start at lock for Anthony Watmough (injured). Daniel Alvaro and Joseph Paulo come onto the bench.
Dragons = Unchanged, but there is a chance that Josh Dugan may be rested.
History
Overall = Eels 13 Draw 2 Dragons 14
Last 5 matches = Eels 2 Dragons 3
At Pirtek Stadium = Eels 61% Dragons 25%
Form = Eels 1 win – Dragons 2 losses
Verdict
The Dragons are under pressure, currently on a 2-game losing streak and facing quick turnaround after a MNF. That doesn’t mean they are unable to win this match, it will only make things difficult. However the Dragons have continually proven people wrong this season and will relish the chance to again prove their worth. If they are problems for the Dragons, what the Eels are going through is multiplied by a thousand. Whether they like to admit it or not, their off-field problems are becoming a major distraction. It’s a shame because they are carrying winning form into this game and the playing group will consider themselves a chance of causing an upset. Although it may be difficult, because there are a few major changes to their team that will disrupt the flow of their play. The Dragons will be out to force the Eels into a grinding contest, which is an environment that they thrive in. It remains to be seen whether or not the Eels can lift to this level, with their last win against the Storm unrealistic with the key players that were out for the Storm. Here, the Dragons will know what has to be done to outlast the Eels and overcome their poor record at the ground to scrape home and get back to their winning ways.
Suggested Bet
Dragons 1-12 @ $2.80
Roosters (4th) v Titans (12th)
Coming off a strong MNF, the Roosters are on a 2-game winning streak that has also propelled them into the Top 4 of the competition. By their own admission, they have been below their best in 2105, however they are seemingly one of the only NRL teams that is improving from week to week. That win over the Dragons was emphasised by powerful defence from their forwards, which in turn allowed Pearce and a departing James Maloney to work their magic on the edges. Furthermore, they were back to their old ways of giving away penalties and backing their structure when on their line. The same cannot be said for the Titans, who were outplayed by the Warriors, as they were guilty of letting that match slip away from them. It was a positive effort in the first half, but injuries and fatigue ultimately got the better of them. They weren’t helped by just 45% possession and completing only 71% either, but some credit has to go to their opponents and the way that they finished off the match. With a mounting injury toll and belief dwindling, the Titans now face a battle to keep their 2015 hopes alive and a road trip against one of the form teams of the competition will not alter the difficulty they face for the remainder of the year.
Team News
Roosters = Michael Jennings (club suspension) is back in the centres, while Sam Moa (suspension) also returns to start at prop. This forces Isaac Lui back to lock and Sio Siua Taukeiaho to the interchange.
Titans = Daniel Mortimer moves to halfback for Aidan Sezer (injured), as Chad Redman comes into the team to start at hooker. Eddy Pettybourne starts at lock for Lachland Burr, who moves back to the bench and Nate Myles (rested) is also back at prop. Dave Taylor is back in the starting team and Matt Robinson is moved to the bench.
History
Overall = Roosters 5 Titans 7
Last 5 matches = Roosters 2 Titans 3
Form = Roosters 2 wins – Titans 1 loss
Verdict
The Roosters are growing with each performance and will be tough for the Titans to beat. The visitors have too many players missing from their side to make them a chance of causing an upset. Compare their team to the Roosters, who have class all around the field and this match becomes a matter of how much the Roosters can win by. Their last two victories have been close, with an average margin of 4.5 points, but expect the shackles to be released here. The Titans are under plenty of pressure and while their defence may be able to hold up, they will struggle to score points and eventually they will concede tries. This means that the Roosters will be able to control the match from the outset, with a superior forward pack that is bruising on both sides of the ball. If they get going, there is no limit to how many points they can score. Down on luck, players and confidence, things may get ugly for the Titans if they’re unable to maintain the strong intensity that they’re expect to demonstrate early. Once the Roosters weather this though, expect the points to flow.
Suggested Bet
Roosters 19+ @ $2
Sorry for last week… = Michael Jenning FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – After a week in the headlines for the wrong reasons following Origin, Jennings will be out to do what he does best…play rugby league! It will be a welcome distraction for him and after a strong showing in Origin, expect him to cause the Titans plenty of difficulties out wide.
Tigers (13th) v Panthers (11th)
Players and fans of the Tigers crashed back to earth, heavily, last week as they were outplayed by the Sea Eagles over 80 minutes. Much more was expected from them after an impressive display the week prior but that effort only further highlighted the battles that Jason Taylor is facing from week-to-week with his young team. It didn’t help that they were without Robbie Farrah, although it was a similar squad to the one that got the job done against the Rabbitohs. The Panthers also head into this match with losing form, with their loss against the Bulldogs extending their losing streak to 3-games. They have now lost 7 out of their last 10 matches and are rapidly falling down the ladder. An increasing injury toll is not helping their cause, as several players are certainly below their best as they carry existing niggles into each match. This match could define what they are destined for at the end of 2015, with many now wondering if the Panthers are in real danger of missing the Finals. Ivan Cleary is a smart coach though and he will be sure to have his squad motivated for each week. It is not the fact that the Panthers have been lacking motivating, they have just not been the better team in their recent matches.
Team News
Tigers = Robbie Farrah (injury) is back at hooker, forcing Dene Halatau back to the bench. Delouise Hoeter is named in the centres to cover for David Nofoaluma, while Sauaso Sue comes onto the bench.
Panthers = Josh Mansour is back on the wing, allowing Waqa Blake to move to the centres and Issah Yeo to the back row. Lewis Brown has been moved to the bench, probably as a utility, as Apisai Koroisau named at hooker for James Segeyaro (injured). Reagan Campbell-Gillard (starting) and Sam McKendry swap roles, while Sika Manu is named as 18th man.
History
Overall = Tigers 11 Panthers 15
Last 5 matches = Tigers 4 Panthers 1
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 60% Panthers 50%
Form = Tigers 1 loss – Panthers 3 losses
Verdict
Both teams will be desperate to turn around their season, as they are not where they want to be on the competition ladder with the run home to the Finals approaching. The Tigers kept pressuring the Sea Eagles last week, proving that they have some degree of belief within their team. The same can be said for the Panthers, who will always be a difficult team to overcome but their mounting injury toll will compound their troubles. If they were at full-strength, there would be an altered opinion on the outcome. However without that situation, this match is one that the Tigers do not want to let slip away. With Farrah returning to the team, expect pressure to be taken off their young halves pairing. The Tigers will be made to work for their win, with things expected to be close early. A Panthers win wouldn’t be a complete surprise, just disappointing that the Tigers would’ve missed another great opportunity. The visitors were strong in parts against the Bulldogs last week and managed to control their powerful forwards. With that in mind, expect things to be tight and the Panthers to keep within two converted tries of their opponents.
Suggested Bet
Tigers -2.5 @ $2
Teddy’s trying = James Tedesco FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – He currently leads the league in tackle busts and is always a dangerous attacking weapon. He can pop up anywhere on the field and the Panthers will have to watch where he is moving behind the line. His contribution to the team has been somewhat overlooked but he is one of the form fullbacks in the competition and will be vital to their success today.
Marginal win = Tigers 1-12 @ $2.90 – As mentioned above, the Panthers will keep things close. They still have a strong defensive line and need to reflect on the positive parts of their game last week. As the Tigers grow in confidence, they may throw the ball around but they will still need to be controlled when in possession.
Bulldogs (8th) v Storm (5th)
The Bulldogs launched back into the Top 8 of the competition last week, with a strong 12-point win over the Panthers on home soil. It was a sign of what can be expected from the Bulldogs in coming weeks, as they attempt to rise back up the competition ladder on the back of dominating forward play. It has been a impressive strength of theirs in recent years and one that they will be desperate to build on. While they are refining their performances, the Storm are in damage control with Slater and Cronk both out and Smith left to steer this team around the park. They were gallant in defeat against the Broncos but with mounting pressure on their opponents, they could only score 12-points and lacked creativity and smooth execution that has been customary with the Storm since the “Big 3” started at the club. Unless this issue is addressed, pressure will only build on Smith and this team can only rely on true grit for so long. The run towards the Finals will be one of the toughest tests for coach Craig Bellamy and his team; with a match against the Bulldogs certain to define what there are capable of. The Broncos offered a stiff challenge, but that was in familiar surroundings for the Storm. With a bye next week, followed by a trip to NZ, this game could offer more than just 2-competition points as they aim avoid a mid-season slump in form.
Team News
Bulldogs = Brett Morris (rested) returns to play fullback, forcing Sam Perrett back to the wing. Trent Hodkinson’s (rested) return shifts Josh Reynolds back to the bench, while Shaun Lane is named in the back row for Josh Jackson (suspension). David Klemmer (rested) will start, with Sam Kasiano shifted back to the bench.
Storm = Unchanged; however Cooper Cronk is an outside chance of returning in this match.
History
Overall = Bulldogs 19 Storm 16
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 4 Storm 1
Form = Bulldogs 1 win – Storm 2 losses
Verdict
Even with the chance that Cronk could return for the Storm, the Bulldogs still appear to be too strong. They rely heavily on their forwards to dominate the match and the Storm have been unable to hold their own in this area in past performances. The Storm pack was not impacted too much by injuries or representative duties, yet they have been disappointing in their efforts. The rest of the Storms success will flow from that and there is no better example than the one set by the Bulldogs each week. Throw in the fact that they’re returning home to Belmore, the Bulldogs are going to be confident of winning this game. It will not be easy though, with the Storm proving last week that they can still play a controlled brand of football, it is just the creativity that they’re lacking. The Bulldogs will need to be measured in their own approach and use the strong platform that is set by their forwards. Things will be close and the home team will need to be on their game and not rely on the spark that will eventually come from Josh Reynolds once he enters the game. With things expected to be close, we are heading for another MNF thriller, with the home team likely to prevail.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.70
Good luck!
Scooby
