Sea Eagles (16th) v Tigers (13th)
It is now or never for the Sea Eagles, who need a win here to get their season back on track. Currently, they are unable to provide answers for their poor play and head into this week at the bottom of the competition ladder. They enjoyed a week off last week, with a week out of the spotlight ideal to put behind them a dismal performance against the Broncos. There were signs that they would be a stronger outfit with DCE returning, but that was quickly silenced by a 34-point losing margin. Momentum is key in the NRL and you only have to look as far as the Tigers, who returned to the winner’s circle with a dominating effort over a tired Rabbitohs outfit. No one was expecting the 34-6 result that was produced, as the Tigers were drifting in almost every betting market that was available. 80 minutes later, they left the field with their heads held high and a renewed hope about their up coming campaign. The task now for coach Jason Taylor will be to harness the energy in that match, especially from his forward pack who were brutal in carrying the ball forward. Special mention has to go to Martin Taupau, who will now be crucial in the performance of the Tigers and their mid-season revival.
Team News
Sea Eagles = Jamie Lyon (injured) is out and replaced by Peta Hiku, who shifts in from the wing. Tom Trbojevic fills that void, while Justin Horo is named to start for Tom Symonds (suspension). James Hasson comes onto the bench and Josh Starling is named as 18th man.
Tigers = Aaron Woods (Origin) is named and takes Sauaso Sue’s (injured) spot in the team. Robbie Farrah (Origin) has not been named and is not expected to feature following pain-killing injections on Wednesday.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles 13 Tigers 8
Last 5 matches = Sea Eagles 4 Tigers 1
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 66% Tigers 11%
Form = Sea Eagles 3 losses – Tigers 1 win
Verdict
The Sea Eagles are heading into this match as favourites, mainly because the Tigers are expected to be without Farrah. The same was thought heading into last week, but they prevailed. While they were strong, they also faced a very fatigued and lacklustre Rabbitohs team, whereas this match will be different. Manly haven’t enjoyed the best form this season, but they do enjoy a strong record on home soil. They will be hard to beat in this situation and if the Tigers are hoping to win, they will need to take the battle to the Sea Eagles pack of forwards from the opening moments. It worked well for them last week and it allowed momentum to be created for the halves. When they are pressured though, the Tigers struggle and you cannot get caught up in the hype of last week’s effort. On the other hand, it is difficult to judge a team like the Sea Eagles when they’re under pressure and doubt is growing around the coaching spot currently occupied by Geoff Toovey. Nevertheless, they are a team that always turns in a strong performance at home and that is too much to move past against a team that is yet to prove themselves.
Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.75
Snakes success = Brett Stewart FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – He loves playing at Brookvale and has proven himself to be a leader of this team in 2015. On top of that, he has scored 6 tries in 4 matches at Brookvale Oval this season.
Raiders (7th) v Cowboys (2nd)
Both sides will approach this match after benefitting from a week off and winning form from Round 13. The Raiders travelled north to Newcastle, to double their opponent’s tally and record a 44-22 victory. It proved how potent this young and confident team can be, especially considering the troubles that the Raiders have endured on the road in recent years. Now they need to improve their form on home turf, where they have a 16.7% winning record there in 2015. The Cowboys are experiencing no such issues, flying high on a 10-game winning streak. Their most recent effort against the Eels became too close for comfort; yet they were able to produce an amazing second half performance to overturn a 30-6 score line in the 53rd minute. Their opponents lack of execution and ability to land a “killer blow” was also to blame, but the Cowboys will certainly take the 2-competition points that were on offer. Sooner or later this wonderful run is going to come to an end and based on their last two performances, that time could be sooner rather than later. Throw in the fact that they are travelling down to a cold climate and have several key players backing up from Origin and the Cowboys may find themselves with their backs to the wall.
Team News
Raiders = Unchanged.
Cowboys = JT, James Tamou, Matt Scott and Michael Morgan (all Origin) are all expected to feature. Rory Kostjasyn comes onto the bench for Ray Thompson (injured) in the only change.
History
Overall = Raiders 16 Cowboys 14
Last 5 matches = Raiders 2 Cowboys 3
Form = Raiders 1 win – Cowboys 10 wins
Verdict
Is this the week that the Cowboys golden run comes to an end? I have suggested for a number of weeks now that the end is immanent and that is also reflected in the odds. That is probably due to the enormity of the task that is ahead of their stars players that will be attempting to back up from Wednesday in a tough climate that Canberra offers. Surprisingly, the Raiders are also the competitions leading scorers but their defence has let them down on numerous occasions. The Cowboys have been sketchy for a number of weeks and despite a week off allowing majority of the squad to rest, they may be caught off-guard. Compare that to the Raiders, who also have had a week off but have had the added benefit of having their entire squad available for their preparation. Remember, they were scoring for fun in Round 13 against the Knights and expect the same free-flowing football again here. I know it is a big call, but there is a big chance that the Raiders will run up a tally on a tired opponent, that will need a loss to refocus them towards their run home.
Suggested Bet
Raiders 13+ @ $3.85
Line it up! = Raiders -1.5 @ $1.90 – If you’re not as brave, then choose the home team to cover the line. It allows the Raiders to win by anything more than a penalty goal. Remember, the Cowboys have a poor record in Canberra!
Titans (8th) v Warriors (10th)
The Titans caused a stir last Sunday, breaking from the usual script that many thought was planned for them and cause an upset over the Bulldogs. It was a relief, as that win broke a 3-game losing streak where they were below their best. More importantly, that victory promoted them into 8th position on the ladder and reminded the rest of the competition what they’re capable of. While they were great, the Warriors missed an ideal opportunity to consolidate their standing in the Top 8. Their loss at the hands of the Roosters in the dying seconds forces them out of the Top 8, something they can ill-afford with a -31 points difference. The Roosters were down on troops, as were the Warriors but to a lesser extent compared to their opponents. What was worse was they they gave up a 14-point lead and appeared lost for points in the second half. Again, the form of Shaun Johnson was questionable and the lack of an in-form hooker is certainly hurting their cause. They have undergone a tough few weeks with a trip to Perth and facing quality opponents. Travelling across to the Gold Coast will only compound the fatigue and further challenge the Warriors in the midst of a period that they general perform quite well in.
Team News
Titans = Nate Myles (Origin) is named and will undergo a fitness. This see’s Eddy Pettybourne move to lock and Lachlan Burr forced back to the bench. Ben Ridge (starting) and Matt Robinson (bench) swap roles, with David Taylor named as 18th man.
Warriors = Jacob Lillyman (Origin) is expected to play, while Ryan Hoffman (Origin) will be out after suffering a concussion on Wednesday. This means that Albert Vete (18th) should come into the team.
History
Overall = Titans 7 Warriors 10
Last 5 matches = Titans 1 Warriors 4
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 50% Warriors 50%
Form = Titans 2 wins – Warriors 2 losses
Verdict
This is a very tough game to pick, with the form with the Titans and the Warriors currently struggling. They were brilliant and poor in equal measure last week week over 80 minutes, but the Warriors can not allow the same slip up to occur. On the other hand, the Titans were spirited, but they also caught the Bulldogs in a vulnerable position. The Titans have one 3-game winning streak to their name already this year and ironically, their 3rd win was against the Warriors. In that game, the home team were unable to shut their opponents out of the game and the Titans capitalised towards the end of the match. This game will be different though, with frustrating building with the Warriors, they seem to produce their best football. Go with them to win in terms of tipping, but otherwise, invest around this game being a close contest, much like the first meeting between the two sides.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $3
Home sweet home = James Roberts FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – He scored the first Titans try and the last overall try in last weeks match. There is no other reason to take Roberts other than the fact that he is in rare form and loves playing in front of his home crowd.
Bulldogs (11th) v Panthers (9th)
The Bulldogs were disappointing last week, unable to follow on from their impressive performance against the Dragons to overcome the Titans. Even though they were missing a host of players, that was still no excuse as they appeared to be the stronger team thanks to a bigger forward pack an arguably, a stronger halves pairing. That mattered little though as they were beaten 28-14, while Des Hasler did his best to shield his team from the loss by complaining about player availability during the representative schedule. After a week off, the Panthers will be looking to make amends for their poor display against the Storm. That effort saw them fail to score a point over 80 minutes and unearthed several problems that are wrong with this team. Player availability is also a problem for them, although the players unavailable have been made so through injury. They are desperate to wrestle back momentum following a loss to the Eels the previous week. A 2-game losing streak is sure to fire them up for this match, although their task against a team aiming to bounce-back from a loss themselves is not going to make things any easier. Furthermore, they have already had their 2-byes this season and are going to have to cope with the players that they have and battle fatigue as they make their run towards the finals.
Team News
Bulldogs = Surprisingly, Des Hasler has not named any of his Origin players, but don’t be surprised if this situation changes. Aside from that, Sam Kasiano is promoted to the starting team, Antonio Kaufusi to the second row and Greg Eastwood to lock. Herman Ese’ese is named as 18th man.
Panthers = Jamie Soward (injury) who was named to return is now expected to be out following a knee injury at training. Elsewhere, Nigel Plum (injury) and Tyrone Peachey (suspension) are both named to start form the bench, while Lewis Brown comes into the team in the back row at the expense of Adam Docker (18th man).
History
Overall = Bulldogs 14 Panthers 16
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 2 Panthers 3
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 56% Panthers 46%
Form = Bulldogs 1 loss – Panthers 2 losses
Verdict
The Panthers are in a tough situation; with injuries mounting, pressure growing on the players that are available and facing a quality team like the Bulldogs. Overall, the Bulldogs were poor last week and will be out to make amends for that effort. The return of their Origin players should boost them, as will the fact that they’re returning to home soil. They have a 50% win record there this year, while the Panthers have just won the sole match on the road. That further supports the suggestion that the Panthers are going to find things difficult. With that in mind, this match becomes a question of how much the Bulldogs can win by. It was uncanny of the Panthers to lose by such a margin as they did last week and they should be out to tighten things up. The Bulldogs will also take time to gather momentum in this match, as there is still uncertainty around the makeup of their halves. With this in mind, the Panthers should keep their opponents within their sights as the clock counts down to the final whistle.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.85
Marking his man = Corey Thompson FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – The NRL’s leading try scorer will be on the other wing, but Thompson will be facing the large frame of Blake Waqa. While he is a great attacking player, he is often caught out of position in defensive movements. With advice from Des Hasler, look for the Bulldogs to exploit his wing as much as possible.
Knights (14th) v Sharks (12th)
In another battle of two teams fighting to salvage their season after a week off with the bye, the Knights will be desperate to break their mid-season slump of 3 losses, making it just 2 wins from their last 10 matches. Their form has dramatically turned around since their strong start to the season and a mounting injury toll is not making things any easier. The Knights are desperate for answers and this stage of the season, with rumours of disharmony within the locker room; the task of winning appears to be beyond them. If they are to fail, watch for the trouble at the club to grow, something that has seemingly snowballed since the Tinkler-era of ownerships. The Sharks will be hoping to build on their upset victory against the Roosters, a match that proved just what they’re capable of. While they would want to be sitting higher on the competition ladder, they will know within their team just what needs to be done to achieve victory. They can ill-afford a slip up from now until the end of the season if they do foster Finals hopes. This match will be a tough contest for them too, traveling to a ground that has not been kind to them in previous meetings.
Team News
Knights = Tyrone Roberts (injury) is back at halfback, meaning that Kurt Gidley can shift back to fullback and Dane Gagai covers for Joey Leilua (released) in his customary position of centre. Korbin Sims replaces David Fa’alogo (injured) at prop, with Pat Vaivai coming onto the bench. Chris Houston is named at lock for Jack Stockwell (injured), while Robbie Rochow (injured) and Joe Tapine are named to also feature on the bench.
Sharks = Ricky Leutele (injury) returns in the centres, with Michael Gordon named at fullback and Valentine Holmes on the wing.
History
Overall = Knights 20 Sharks 11
Last 5 matches = Knights 3 Sharks 2
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 60% Sharks 27%
Form = Knights 3 losses – Sharks 1 win
Verdict
Remarkably, the Knights head into this match as strong favourites. That is probably due to the Sharks very poor record at Hunter Stadium, as well as the likely omission of Gallen from their team. Despite those two issues, Newcastle still have to produce a performance that is capable of winning this match. Since Round 4, there has been a large drop in the quality of their execution and it is more and more unlikely each week that they’re going to turn things around. Tyronne Roberts’ inclusion at 7 will add some stability, but they will also need to tighten up in defence before they will make inroads. The Sharks will take confidence away from their win over the Roosters and need to demonstrate a similar effort here. Travelling will pose its problems, but ultimately they are capable of producing an upset. I wouldn’t expect the highest quality match from these two sides, meaning that it could be a close, yet dynamic display where there are several lead changes. Back the upset, with players like Jack Bird, Wade Graham and Michael Ennis having the intelligence to lead their team around and build pressure on their opponents.
Suggested Bet
Sharks @ $2.20
Fierce bite = Sharks 1-12 @ $3.10 – As stated above, the quality of this match isn’t likely to be high. With that in mind, the likely margin of victory appears to be a narrow one. The Sharks very rarely blow-out an opponent and this game should be no different, as the Knights are desperate to overturn their recent form.
Storm (4th) v Broncos (1st)
Following on the back of a successful Origin match in Melbourne, the star players from Wednesday night will remain there to do battle at club level. For the Storm squad, it is a chance to spend some time at home before playing the next two matches on the road, split only by a bye. They were unable to grab the two-points against the Eels on Monday also, frustrating coming close without their stars to lead the way. It was a young outfit for the Storm; a guide as to where the club is heading in the future and there is plenty to be hopeful about. The Broncos players enjoyed a week off, following an impressive performance at home against Manly. Prior to that, they had consecutive road victories to build the confidence within their team. This is generally a period where the Broncos struggle due to increasing fatigue on representative players, however thus far, that has not been an issue. Heading into this week on-top of the competition is positive and it will be a standing that they will not want to give up without a fight. With so many players again featuring after Wednesday, this game could be a matter of who is able to perform at their peak after that bruising contest, strongly supported by their team; rather than key players dominating this match.
Team News
Storm = Will Chambers and Cameron Smith (both origin) have been named to feature, forcing Hymel Hunt and Nelson Asofa-Solomona back to an extended bench. Tim Glasby has been named at prop, while Tohu Harris is named in the back row. Billy Slater (injury) has been ruled out for the rest of the season, meaning that Cameron Munster is likely to be the permanent replacement at fullback.
Broncos = Darius Boyd, Matt Gillet Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker, Josh Maguire and Justin Hodges (all Origin) have been named to return. Parker’s inclusion forces Sam Thaiday back to the bench, with Mitchell Dodds (18th), Francis Molo (19th) and Lachlan Maranta (20th) all included alongside him.
History
Overall = Storm 24 Draw 1 Broncos 11
Last 5 matches = Storm 5 Broncos 0
At AAMI Park = Storm 74% Broncos 20%
Form = Storm 1 loss – Broncos 3 wins
Verdict
Momentum is with the Broncos and without Slater or Cronk, the task of winning this match becomes increasingly difficult. This match is ultimately the Broncos to lose and need to focus on dominating the middle of the field first, then allowing their outside backs to work their magic. It will not be easy though, with the Storm certain to bring the battle to their opponents early on. With that in mind, it should be close early, but at the match moves on, the Broncos should pull away on the scoreboard. Expect a big game from Ben Hunt also; with doubt growing around DCE in the halves at Origin level, he could do his chances a massive boost with a dominating performance here. The Broncos have a strong ability to pile on pressure on their opponents and with confidence high, they could win by more than 2 converted tries. That is not to suggest things will get ugly, but the Broncos will be comfortable enough in the closing moments of this match.
Suggested Bet
Broncos 13+ @ $3.20
Not a complete blow out = Broncos 13-18 @ $6.75 – It is mentioned above, with the Broncos flying high in confidence. That will give them what they need to throw caution to the wind and score points, but it will not be a complete thrashing. The Storm are too proud to allow that to happen, especially considering that they’re on home turf.
Dragons (3rd) v Roosters (5th)
The Dragons face the Roosters on MNF in a rematch of the dramatic feature match on ANZAC Day, which saw the match suspended for just over 20 minutes due to horrible weather. It certainly was a surprise, but not as much as the Dragons performance on the day. That was one of many statements they have made this season, although they were poor towards the end of their last match against the Bulldogs. The form of their halves was dynamic, scoring two tries; but it appears as though they’re their only attacking options, as well as Dugan. They will need more here and perhaps a week off last week could be beneficial in creating more attacking threats. The Roosters will be flying high though, following a strong road victory against the Warriors. They were outsiders for that match, with not too much expected of them with several players unavailable through injury and representative duty. After being down 14-nil in the opening stage, many were lining up to cash in their tickets on the Warriors, however the Roosters fought back strongly and proved that their recent loss to the Sharks was nothing more than a minor slip up. Now, they will want to perform strongly at a ground where they are unaccustomed to being the visitors.
Team News
Dragons = Joel Thompson (injured) has been replaced by Will Matthews, with Jake Marketo filling the vacant spot on the bench.
Roosters = Michael Jennings, Mitchell Pearce, Body Cordner and Aidan Guerra (all Origin) have all been named to return. SKD shifts out to the wing to accommodate for Jennings, while Pearce’s inclusion forces Jackson Hastings back to the bench to fill the utility role again. Sio Siua Taukeiaho and Mitchell Aubusson are also forced back to the bench, alongside Suaia Matagi (18th).
History
Overall = Dragons 18 Draw 1 Roosters 14
Last 5 matches = Dragons 1 Roosters 4
At Allianz Stadium = Dragons 42% Roosters 63%
Form = Dragons 1 loss – Roosters 1 win
Verdict
The Dragons have already recorded one win against the Roosters so far this season, but that does not mean that this result is a forgone conclusion. If anything, the task of winning this game is increasingly difficult. The Roosters are one of a very few teams in the competition that appear to be building each week. The Dragons looked lost for answers against the Bulldogs and while I am not ready to dismiss their potential, it may be an insight into where the club is heading. The players returning will only boost the Roosters and it is expected that they will make amends for their loss against the Dragons earlier in the season. Their forwards will be wary of the job that they have to do, as they were comprehensively beaten last time. In saying that, Jake Friend has greater match fitness now, while the other Roosters forwards are growing in confidence. It will be a thriller though, with the Dragons tipped to keep things close enough to make it a contest in the dying stages of this game.
Suggested Bet
Roosters 1-12 @ $2.60
Good luck!
Scooby
