A “dead rubber”! That is exactly the prospect players and fans are faced after Queensland captured an 8-point victory in Game 2. The Maroons found themselves under pressure during numerous stages of that match only to withstand the force of the Blues and capitalize when it mattered. They made the most of the minimal chances given to them and it ensured that the series was decided within 2-matches. Now, the Maroons head back to ANZ Stadium, the home of the Blues and the stage where they upset their opponents in Game 1. Regardless of the result, at the end of 80 minutes the Maroons will do a victory lap after being presented the shield. That is enough to make Blues fans blood boil and many of them are rightly calling for change within the team that again promised so much but were unable to deliver. Blues coach Laurie Daley has done his best to ensure the game is well supported by clearly stating that this game still has plenty of meaning. If only Daley believed his own words then perhaps many of the Blues fans would be excited by the prospect of a new era of players moving forward; instead only a few have been given a chance while “aging stars” get a chance for a farewell match. Fact is, if the Blues had a similar ethos to that of their opponents, many of these players wouldn’t be afford the opportunity and the series may have actually been heading for a decider. Perhaps there is more for both sets of fans to be excited about and as always, there is money to be won!
NSW
1. Tedesco 2. Mansour 3. Jennings 4. Dugan 5. Ferguson 6. Maloney 14. J. Bird 8. Woods 9. Farah 10. Gallen 11. Jackson 12. Graham 13. Frizell
Interchange: 15. Tamou 16. Klemmer 17. Fifita 18. Moylan
There are some players within this team that can consider themselves “lucky” to be picked. Daley has chosen to give Farah and Gallen a final game that many believe is halting the Blues progress forward, while other players have been dropped. Tedesco has come in at fullback for Moylan, who was initially dropped but has been recalled following the withdrawal of Adam Reynolds. It is expected that Moylan will start on the bench and Jack Bird will begin in the halves, while Josh Dugan replaces Josh Morris in the centres. Dylan Walker and Greg Bird have been left out altogether, with Tyson Frizell to start at lock and Wade Graham to get his chance in the second row. Power will come off the bench, although that didn’t work as expected in Game 2, with the Maroons finding a way to nullify this and produce a winning play. NSW appear to be heading in a new direction, although the direction Daley wants to go is unclear given how much he has changed his team already over the 3 games.
FTS and/or LTS
Best selection = James Tedesco @ $11 – Tedsesco debuts in this game after successfully returning from injury and playing dynamic football in recent weeks. He outplayed Moylan last week and appears to offer more in attack. If the Blues are smart (that’s a big “if”), Tedesco should come into the line as much as possible either as a ball-player or a line runner. Either way, the prospect of him in full flight at this level offers plenty and he has proven in the NRL that he is a difficult player to stop.
Roughie = Jack Bird @ $17 – Much like Tedesco, Bird can create scoring opportunities with little encouragement. He puts doubt into the mind of even the most experienced opponents and moving into the starting team will only enhance his chances. The best thing is that Bird will not be “over-awed” by the quality of opponents nor the impending series result.
MOM
Best selection = Jack Bird @ $13 or James Tedesco @ $7 – Either player has the ability to take control of this match and win it for their team. Tedesco has been waiting for this opportunity for some time, while the move of Bird into the halves holds great significance also. Between the two, I would favor Bird but only just.
Queensland
1. Boyd 2. Oates 3. Inglis 4. O’Neill 5. Gagai 6. Thurston 7. Cronk 8. Scott 9. Smith 10. Myles 11. Thaiday 12. Gillett 13. Parker
Interchange: 14. Cooper 15. McGuire 16. Guerra 17. Lillyman
It is business as usual for the Maroons, with changes made only forced upon them due to injuries. Gavin Cooper has been rewarded for his great form at club level and is sure to feel comfortable linking up with his Cowboys teammate, Thurston. He replaces Michael Morgan, while Nate Myles returns and Jacob Lillyman is likely to move back to the bench. There may be a few minor changes prior to KO but the core of this team remains stable. This will be the last time that Corey Parker takes the field for his state and rest assured, the Maroons players will be motivated by sending him out a winner in a whitewash.
FTS and/or LTS
Best selection = Dane Gagai @ $10 – He is the only player this series to score in both matches, with his try last match being the first of the game (he bagged a hat-trick also!). There is no reason why he cannot emulate this achievement; the Maroons have shown a liking to attack down this edge with the defensively fragile Blake Ferguson, standing in his way.
Roughie = Johnathan Thustron @ $26 – Thurston is the Maroons conducter and while Cronk also steers the ship, Thurston has greater room to roam. This allows him the opportunity to pop up in various areas on the field. He is also terrific at support play and is value at the price offered.
MOM
Best selection = Johnathan Thurston @ $8 – Thurston’s dominance this series has been fantastic. Expect plenty of traffic to head his way in defence and if the Maroons are to win, they will rely heavily on him stopping ball runners.
Verdict
The Maroons will take confidence away from their Game 2 match where they combated what the Blues threw at them in attack. Not only that, they proved how they are still a smart enough team to play patient football and outlast their opponents. Unfortunately, they are not facing the same Blues team and the injection of some younger players changes the dynamic of their opponents. It will come down to how much the Maroons want this win more than anything; they have the ability to control the result of the match and whether or not they want to send Corey Parker away a winner will be a major factor. There is nothing in rugby league to suggest that a team “deserves” something, especially a “clean sweep” in Origin. Only 7 times since the Origin series went to 3-matches in 1982 has there been a 3-nil clean sweep, they’re split 4-3 in favor of the Maroons. Four of the clean sweeps have been achieved in enemy territory (2010 – QLD, 1996 – NSW, 1988 – QLD & 1986 – NSW). In those matches, the average winning margin stands at 13.1 points, while the Maroons average a margin of 12.3 points. In the past 4 “dead rubbers”, the two states have shared the spoils, winning 2 games each. Of those 4 matches, the average winning margin has been 15.5 points, with the total points averaging 34.5. Based on these numbers, the margin of victory and total points should be high. The Blues do not have the capabilities to score plenty of points so far in the series, averaging just 10 PPG compared with the Maroons 16 PPG. Ultimately, clean sweeps are hard to come by in recent years and with the Blues having “motivation” of their own, as well as a crop of exciting young players, we could be about to witness a new bread of Origin players who turn the tide on the Queensland dominance. The fact that there is “nothing to lose” in this match will allow the Blues players to play a more natural and instinctive game. Sorry Maroons fans, but this game appears as though it is heading for a NSW victory. They had their chances in previous matches but were unable to make the most of them; now, having (hopefully) learned from those experiences, they should take the match to their opponents and get home comfortably in the end.
Suggested bet
NSW -1.5 @ $1.90
Completely mad?! = Blues 13+ @ $4.75 – If you want more value out of your return, then consider this option. It may appear completely insane at first sight, but history is on the side of the Blues in these circumstances. The Maroons were vulnerable at certain stages in the opening two games and with more attacking flare, there is no reason why they Blues cannot gain momentum and play with plenty of confidence.
Good luck!
Scooby
