The Maroons head into this match with 1-nil Series lead after capturing a 2-point victory over the Blues in Game 1. It was a hard-fought victory, made even more impressive by the fact that they were able to win at ANZ Stadium, a ground that the Blues hold a strong advantage at. The grit that was demonstrated was something to be admired, with the Blues having the advantage of more possession and field position. The Maroons points in the first half came on the back of relentless pressure from the Blues, until they had their chance to march up the field and strike. Laurie Daley has several headaches to combat leading into this game and the most problematic will be increasing the points that this team is able to produce. The Blues like to play a game that relies upon defence to get them through; while this will work to some extent, the Maroons have too much power across the field to limit them. Eventually, they will break their opponents down and the Blues need to “chance their hand” more regularly if they’re to overturn the result. With the Maroons having the edge heading into this game, the Blues have everything to lose and another loss here could force the NSW organisation into yet another review and direction moving forward.
Queensland
1. Boyd 2. Oates 3. Inglis 4. O’Neill 5. Gagai 6. Thurston 7. Cronk 8. Scott 9. Smith 10. Lillyman 11. Thaiday 12. Gillett 13. Parker
Interchange: 14. Morgan 15. Guerra 16. Papalii 17. McGuire
The Maroons have made just the one change heading into this game, with Nate Myles ruled out and replaced in the starting team by Jacob Lillyman. There is speculation that Lillyman may in fact start from the bench and McGuire could start the match. With little change for this side, the stories have already surfaced that there is a virus sweeping through the camp, ensuring that they’re quick to play down the hype that is surrounding them. If anything, they can improve on their performance in Game 1, where Morgan, Inglis and Cronk had relatively quiet matches. This spells trouble for the Blues and they have the added advantage of a ruthless home crowd.
FTS and/or LTS
Best selection = Corey Oates @ $8 – He was the best selection in Game 1 but the sole try for the Maroons was scored on the opposite side. A few changes for this match though, most notably Inglis being marked by Walker. He is a capable player, but vastly difference from Morris at this level. The extra room may provide greater opportunities for Oates on the outside.
Roughie = Johnathan Thurston @ $23 – He was a threat last time running to the line and providing for his outside options. Don’t be surprised if you see the same, however this time, Thurston will dummy and go himself for the line.
MOM
Best selection = Darius Boyd @ $9 – Gillett delivered in Game 1
Best selection = Matt Gillett @ $26 – Thurston ($5.50), Smith ($9) and Cronk ($10) are the obvious selections but for some value, the forwards is where the game will be won. It has been no secret that Gillett has been one of the best forwards in the league in 2016. Expect another big game from him in this match as he proves how he is apart of the Maroons next generation of stars. A little note though, perhaps Michael Morgan ($26) is also worth some though if Cronk is ruled out.
NSW
1. Moylan 2. Mansour 3. Jennings 4. Walker 5. Ferguson 6. Maloney 7. A. Reynolds 8. Woods 9. Farah 10. Tamou 11. G.Bird 12. Jackson 13. Gallen
Interchange: 14. J.Bird 15. Frizell 16. Klemmer 17. Fifita
Laurie Daley has been forced into making a few changes for this game, with Josh Morris out with injury, Dylan Walker comes form the bench and into the centres. He will be hoping for a better showing than the 9 minutes he was afforded in Game 1. This opens an opportunity for Sharks dynamo, Jack Bird, to take the utility spot on the bench. Boyd Cordner is out through injury also, with his spot originally slated for Wade Graham, he was later ruled out through suspension. At the end of a reshuffle, Greg Bird will partner Josh Jackson in the back row, Gallen will start at lock and Tamou will start the game. Tyson Frizell has filled the vacant bench spot and will make his Origin debut in this game. Points will be the issue for the Blues and looking at this team, it remains to be seen where they will come from. The halves were satisfactory in their last game and greater support will be needed from the rest of their backs, especially Matt Moylan, who will again be targeted by the Maroons.
FTS and/or LTS
Best selection = Dylan Walker @ $15 – Walker now has his opportunity in the starting side and you will be able to see the talent he has. Remember, this bloke was picked to play for Australia before NSW and put in one of his best performances last week for the Sea Eagles. A man in form is worth following!
Roughie = Matt Moylan @ $17 – Moylan didn’t deliver his best performance in Game 1 and he will be out to make amends. Despite his poor effort, he will grow in confidence from that outing. Moylan will be roaming around the field looking to make the most of his second opportunity.
MOM
Best selection = Josh Jackson @ $34 – He was dynamic in Game 1, only taken off the field when Walker came on as Daley searched for more points. He is a leader of this Blues pack and will again be ready for this encounter, bringing a ferocious intensity with everything he does.
Verdict
The Maroons have it all before them following their efforts in Game 1 and the Blues should know where to attack their opponents. Problem is, they’re going up against one of the best teams in the modern era and breaking them down appears to be utterly impossible. While they limited the Maroons to one try, they only scored one themselves and will have a harder time defending them at Suncorp this time out. The home team are deserving favorites as the Blues appeared lost at more than one stage in Game 1. If they were to cause an upset, it would be a drastic turnaround of form for both teams. Looking at the statistics, the Maroons have won 6 out of the past 10 Game 2 matches, with the Blues actually winning 4 out of the past 5. Of those 10 matches, 5 were at ANZ Stadium, 4 at Suncorp and 1 at the MCG; with Queensland winning all of the 4 matches on their home soil. The last time the Blues won a Game 2 match on Queensland soil was back in 2000, when they beat the Maroons 28-10. In terms of the margin of victory, the Blues have won their matches by an average of 6 points, while the Maroons dominate their games a17.6 points, with a total average of 14 points. These statistics weight heavily against the Blues as they head into enemy territory and make their task even more difficult. In terms of picking a winner, the Maroons are very hard to go past after the way they were able to hold the Blues in their last match, especially with the pressure the Blues piled on them. They’re the ideal selection to win and take the series, but the Blues with the start is the way to go or either team to win by under 6.5 points.
Suggested bet
Blues +4.5 @ $1.90 or Either team to win Under 6.5 points @ $2.50
Good luck!
Scooby
