Brisbane Broncos (1st) v St George-Illawarra Dragons (14th)

The Broncos flexed their muscles last week aagainst the Titans, showing their opponents what it takes to be competitive in the NRL. The Titans were not without hope, however the Broncos appeared to be always in control of the match with their speed and execution. Their halves were again dominant, behind an impressive display from the forwards. Things are looking positive for them, although they will not become too confident after being upset by the Panthers a few weeks ago. The Dragons should be motivated for this match, the middle match in their 3-game Queensland road trip that didn’t get off to an ideal start. They were embarrassed by the Cowboys 36-nil, the second time this season they have been unable to score a try in a match. The Broncos narrowly beat their the Cowboys in Round 4, so this matchup is promising to be a very difficult contest. Their attacking issues are nothing new and they need to be addressed soon or they will dramatically fall away from contention for a spot in the Top 8. The talent is there for the playmakers to use, although there is a need for greater consistency, as well as quality when it comes to the end of attacking sets. Now that their defence is under pressure, this could all unravel very quickly for the Dragons.

Team News
Broncos = Unchanged.
Dragons = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Broncos 20 Dragons 14
Last 5 matches = Broncos 4 Dragons 1
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 60% Dragons 44%
Form = Broncos 2 wins – Dragons 1 loss

Verdict
The Dragons are the worst attacking team in the competition to date and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better for them. Currently, they average just 8-points per game and if last week is anything to go by, they will struggle against a superior opponent. The Broncos will also be able to hold out what the Dragons throw at them in defence and they can expect their opponents to tighten up further when they are defending. This shouldn’t worry the home team too much, they have numerous attacking threats, similar to that of the Cowboys, that will wear the Dragons down over 80 minutes. They will have to ensure that it is relentless pressure, as the Dragons have shown a few times this year that they can get back into matches if pressure is released. There is only one option here and that is deciding how many points the Broncos will win by. Suprisingly, they only have an average winning margin of 6.75 points, as 1-point win against the Cowboys narrowed this down; although without that in the equation, the margin is just 8.6 points. Their only other victory this year against a team outside of the Top 8 was a 15-point win at home and the same can be expect here; with the Broncos home comfortably at the end of this match.

Suggested Bet
Broncos -14.5 @ $1.90

Galloping to victory = Broncos 19+ @ $2.40 – There is a very strong chance that the Dragons will bounce back defensively, but that is no use if they are unable to score points. With this in mind, the Broncos may be able to get home by more than 3 converted tries in the end.

Starting with a bang = Broncos Try First scoring play @ $1.80 – The Broncos like to start things off well at home. They got out to a good start last week and with the pressure on the visitors, you can expect the same again here.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) v Sydney Roosters (16th)

The Rabbitohs started the match very strongly against the Sea Eagles last week, with the opening 20 minutes setting up victory for the remainder of the match. It was an impressive display,although they were tiring towards the end of the match and things were beginning to get very tight. The Rabbitohs almost let the match slip away but were able to grab a confidence-building victory following two consecutive losses. Here, they will face traditional rivals, the Roosters for the second time. It is much earlier than the two sides are accustomed to and the first match will set a strong tone for this game. The Roosters were blown away in that match, a loss that has set the tone for their season to date. They are still winless, coming again, agonizingly close to winning but going down to the Warriors in Gold Point. Ironically, it was a kick at the end of an attacking set that gave the Warriors a chance; demonstrating how the Roosters are lacking experience in key positions. The momentum also swung both ways and it was mistakes (11 errors) allowed their opponents back into the match through the release of pressure. The fact that the Roosters have the chance to grab their first win against their bitter rivals will make the Rabbitohs fans nervous, either way the scene is set for a great match!

Team News
Rabbitohs = Bryson Goodwin (injury) returns to the wing, pushing Kirisome Auva’a to the centres and Michael Oldfield to 19th man.
Roosters = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Rabbitohs 11 Roosters 21
Last 5 matches = Rabbitohs 4 Roosters 1
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 54% Roosters 45%
Form = Rabbitohs 1 win – Roosters 5 losses

Verdict
The Roosters are closer than most people think, to grabbing their first victory in 2016 and if you were to ask a Rabbitohs fan, they would be lying if they didn’t admit they were nervous. The main difference between their first meeting and this game is that the Rabbitohs have lost the stability and class in their halves. At times they look great, but others have questions being raised. The last two matches for the Roosters have shown a different defensive structure than they started the season with, but that was against two teams that are yet to prove themselves in 2016. One of those teams was Manly, a team that the Rabbitohs just beat home last week. With that in mind, the strength of the forwards should still be too much for the Roosters, although it won’t be as dominating as it was in their opening match. Expect the Roosters to make their opponents work for this victory and following another bruising encounter, the Rabbitohs scoring opportunities may be impacted by fatigue towards the end of this match.

Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.80

Parramatta Eels (8th) v Canberra Raiders (3rd)

The Eels came up short against the Panthers last week, losing to the Panthers with the last play of the match. In a fantastic match, the Eels were left wondering where they went wrong as they attempted to make it 4 consecutive victories to start the season. Again, they were their own worst enemies at times; making 13 errors in the match and missing 34 tackles. They are much better team than that and you can expect and improvement here, just like they have been doing every week. The Raiders will have a tough time though, backing up from a MNF match against the Bulldogs but will be confident after leaving Belmore with a win. the Raiders coaching staff attempted to negate the short turnaround, catching a charted flight back to Canberra at 1am. It remains to be seen whether or not this tactic will work and the Raiders would perhaps be better served focusing on what they can control over the 80 minutes. They demonstrated against the Bulldogs just how potent their attack can be, continually pressuring their opponents at the line and forcing mistakes from them in defence. It was an indication towards what this team is capable of with their first-choice halves on the field. The challenge for this team is now making that level of performance, a regular part of their play for the remainder of their season.

Team News
Eels = Nathan Peats (injury) returns and will start at hooker, forcing Isaac De Gois back to the bench. Daniel Alvaro comes onto the bench for David Gower.
Raiders = Luke Bateman comes onto the bench in place of Sia Soliola (injured).

History
Overall = Eels 11 Raiders 15
Last 5 matches = Eels 1 Raiders 4
At Pirtek Stadium = Eels 60% Raiders 46%
Form = Eels 1 loss – Raiders 1 win

Verdict
While the Eels have the advantage of an extra day to prepare for this match, they too will have to recover from a tough match against the Panthers. The fact that minimal travel was involved from Round 5 to 6 will also work in their favor they have to take care of their performance over 80 minutes. They had several opportunities last week to do this, but were unable to put the Panthers away, which ultimately lead to a loss. The Raiders will be aware of this, as well as the importance of getting off to a strong start, much like they did last week. Many believe that the quality is still present in the Eels side and it is hard to jump away from them after 1-loss. While it was disappointing, they will be measured on how they bounce back and they look capable of overcoming the Raiders. While their win last week was impressive, it will take a lot out of them and the Bulldogs are appearing to be a shadow of the team many thought they would be. This match will be extremely close though, but with the improved Eels defence, they should get home by less than 2 converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Eels 1-12 @ $3

Raiding Pirtek = Raiders +4.5 @ $1.90 – If you’re not sold on the Eels winning this match, then side with the Raiders with added points. They are bound to keep their opponents within striking distance, even with a chance of winning this match in the closing moments.

New Zealand Warriors (10th) v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (13th)

The Warriors head back to New Zealand after a longer than intended road trip to Gosford to face the Roosters. The location and timing of the match meant that they were unable to fly back until Monday, leaving them with a little more than 5-days to prepare for this match. Winning the game in Golden Point will ease the burden of fatigue, as they now have made it 2-consecutive victories in two matches they were expect to win. It hasn’t been pretty viewing though and the Sea Eagles will be ready to challenge the Warriors limitations. Opposite to their opponents, the Sea Eagles have plenty of time to prepare, after a loss to the Rabbitohs in their third match in 10-days. The heavy schedule took its toll on their bodies, as the early intensity in their last match blew them off the field. Their fight back came towards the end, but it was too little too late for the home side. They are still very disappointing compared with the quality of their roster and losing DCE hasn’t made it any easier. In one shining light, Koroisau was solid in his performance and he will need more consistent support from his forwards if they are to topple their opponents here.

Team News
Warriors = Jonathan Wright comes onto the wing for Manu Vatuvei (injured), while Thomas Leuluai is named as 18th man and could be a late inclusion to the team.
Sea Eagles = Feleti Mateo (injured) has been replaced in the second row by Tom Symonds. Jake Trbojevic will start at lock and Josh Starling at prop, pushing Darcy Lussick and Brenton Lawrence back to the bench.

History
Overall = Warriors 8 Sea Eagles 17
Last 5 matches = Warriors 1 Sea Eagles 4
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 58% Sea Eagles 73%
Form = Warriors 2 wins – Sea Eagles 1 loss

Verdict
Neither team has been convincing in the first 5 Rounds of the competition, so choosing winner here is proving to be a difficult task. The Warriors have the saving grace that they’re returning home, but have a short turnaround to face prior to this game. Like the Sea Eagles, their physical match would’ve taken plenty out of their bodies and the temperature in that game didn’t help the situation. While the Sea Eagles enjoy a very strong record over the Warriors, their attacking flaws may get the better of them here. Last week was the first match without DCE and points proved hard to come by; with teams only going to be better prepared the longer the current combination is exposed to the top level. They will need their forwards to dominate the middle of the field first, something that brought them back into their match last week. When they have momentum, the Sea Eagles look like a dangerous football team and their enthusiasm may roll the Warriors early on. Still, the increasing confidence of the Warriors will bode well for them here and on the back of the win over the Roosters, a team that Manly just beat in Round 4, they should have just enough points in them for the Sea Eagles to grab a win on the road; albeit, in a very close contest. With confidence still low when investing on the Warriors, consider the line with the visitors here.

Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles +7.5 @ $1.90

Marginal victory = Warriors 1-12 @ $2.90 – If they are to win, it would be surprising to see the Warriors win by anything more than 2 converted tries. It is more value than the suggested bet but it does rely on the home team actually winning the match.

Penrith Panthers (12th) v North Queensland Cowboys (4th)

The Panthers grabbed their second win of the season last week, with a last second play that snatched victory away from the Eels. Given their form and performance this year, the Panthers could’ve easily won a few more close matches and been higher on the ladder than they currently are. While it was close, they did a better job of limiting their errors and capitalized on their superior possession. Now, they need to take that momentum forward against a Cowboys team that will be high on confidence following a destructive victory. Their win against the Dragons allowed them to bounce back from defeat in Round 4, while maintaining a very strong home record. On the road, they will be wary that their last trip to Sydney was a loss to the Eels, a team the Panthers beat last week.  The Cowboys will be primed for this match though, with players like JT and Morgan becoming more and more consistent. The speed that they played at last week was amazing to witness and it was combined with relentless pressure over 80 minutes. The Panthers can expect plenty of pressure in this match but they have proven a tough team to overcome for any team, especially on home turf.

Team News
Panthers = Unchanged.
Cowboys = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Panthers 15 Cowboys 14
Last 5 matches = Panthers 1 Cowboys 4
At Pepper Stadium = Panthers 54% Cowboys 50%
Form = Panthers 1 win – Cowboys 1 win

Verdict
The Panthers will head into this match supremely confident that they can get the better of a team that lost to the Eels in Round 2. That being said, the Cowboys have improved remarkably since that game and are proving just how dangerous they can be. They were able to bounce back from a loss to a dominating win last week over the Dragons, a team that the Panthers lost to. Now that the trip to Sydney holds no fears for the Cowboys, expect them to be able to go on and win this match. The Panthers will put up a strong fight though, they have made a habit of that in 2016 and this game should be no different. Fatigue may be an issue for them towards the end of this game, but so too should the class of the Cowboys. While they have enjoyed dominating displays at home this year, they have surprisingly been unable to win on the road this year. This game should provide the ideal opportunity to break that trend here, but it will be a very close contest and things may just get too tight for the Cowboys liking towards the end of this match.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.90

Tri your luck = Either team Under 6.5 points @ $2.85 – With things expected to be tight, you may just think this is the safer option given the Panthers revival last week.

Cronulla Sharks (6th) v Gold Coast Titans (9th)

The Sharks continued on their winning way, making it two consecutive victories with a strong display against the Tigers. Just as expected, it was a tough game for both teams, but the Sharks showed how strong they can be, carrying the ball for almost 300m more than their opponents. Majority of this came from their forwards, as they worked well in conjunction with hooker, Michael Ennis. In turn, more room was created for there halves and the rest flowed from there. The Titans weren’t so lucky in their match, as the Broncos reminded them; just what it takes to be a competitive side in this competition. They have surprised many with their efforts so far, but they still have plenty of improvement left in them. Conceding points has been an issue for the Titans in 2016 (average 21.6 per game) and while their defensive structure can be strong, they are still lacking confidence when defending on their edges. They will need their confidence for this match, especially considering how strong the Sharks have been at home, undefeated up until this point.

Team News
Sharks = Unchanged, with Paul Gallen expected to start at lock this week, rather than come off the bench.
Titans = Cameron Cullen has been called into the team at 5/8 to make his NRL debut. Greg Bird shifts to lock and Agnatius Paasi back to the bench. David Shillington (injury) is expected to start at prop.

History
Overall = Sharks 7 Titans 6
Last 5 matches = Sharks 3 Titans 2
At Southern Cross Stadium = Sharks 54% Titans 38%
Form = Sharks 2 wins – Titans 1 loss

Verdict
The Titans proved last week that they can mix it with the top teams in the competition, but it was far from a satisfying effort. They will need a similar level of enthusiasm and an improved level of execution if they’re to beat the Sharks. They have proven on several occasions that they are a contender in 2016, although they too are not without their flaws. The Titans will want to make the most of this in the opening quarter or so of the match. Although, the Sharks home ground advantage should work into their favor and they are yet to lose there this year. The Titans found out last week the level they need to be at and it would be surprising to see them start slowly. Eventually, the power of the Sharks in their forwards will be too much and the home side should prevail. As for the margin, when their confidence is high, the Sharks appear to have a good ability to score points but this is reversed if they’re struggling. The Titans have shown this year that they can offer a few momentary lapses and with those becoming less of an occurrence, this game will be closer than a lot of people think.

Suggested Bet
Titans +10.5

Up, up, Cronulla = Sharks 1-12 @ $2.80 – As mentioned above, if the Sharks are to win this match, it will be a lot closer than most people think. With that in mind, there is value in selecting the margin as an ideal option here.

Newcastle Knights (15th) v Wests Tigers (11th)

The Knights are still winless in 2016, going down last week to the Storm in a tough contest. It appeared as though the Knights were in a position to cause an upset; with the Storm forced to come from behind and score 2-tries in the last 17 minutes for a 4-point win. Again, the Knights fought hard and despite still being winless, they’re playing with more spirit than other teams who have a win to their name. What they are lacking is quality and they will need to find another level if they’re to win here. The Tigers are on a 3-game losing streak, which frustratingly continued against the Sharks. They were unable to gain much momentum, despite several chances to pile points on their opponents. The young halves were freely moving around the field yet still appeared hampered by the pressure of their opponents. There is still the question mark around Farah and the halves, while Tedesco continually faces challenges. His team cannot continually rely upon his contribution to get them a win and they need other options to throw at their opponents.

Team News
Knights = Tariq Sims (suspension) returns in the second row, pushing Jacob Saifiti back to the bench and Micky Paea out of the team altogether.
Tigers = Curtis Sironen (injury) has been named to return on the bench in place of Manaia Cherrington. Tim Simona (suspended) is out and with a reshuffle, it remains to be seen who will replace him in the final team.

History
Overall = Knights 11 Tigers 10
Last 5 matches = Knights 4 Tigers 1
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 59% Tigers 42%
Form = Knights 2 losses – Tigers 3 losses

Verdict
The Tigers have progressively gotten worse since their impressive start to the season and majority of that has to do with confidence. They will need every bit of that this match and the Knights will provide an ideal setting to allow the Tigers attack to rediscover its groove. That isn’t to suggest that this match will be one way traffic though, the Knights have proven in their only other home game that they will be tough to beat at Hunter Stadium, regardless of the makeup of their team. You can expect the Knights to make a contest of this match and that brings uncertainty around the margin. Above all else, the Tigers should win this match and cover the line, making it the ideal betting selection. Whether or not their attack finds its feet again will be another factor altogether. If the young stars are firing, this score could be anything but with their defence still questionable; it is too risky to stand firm on a margin. Take on the line and nothing else in this match!

Suggested Bet
Tigers -1.5 @ $.190

Melbourne Storm (2nd) v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (7th)

The Bulldogs momentum from Round 4 was drastically halted last week at the hands of the Raiders. Things were looking up for them too, returning to Belmore and hopeful that their big forward pack could maintain their flow. It wasn’t to be, as the Raiders exposed plenty of flaws and offered resistance to their poor attack. They will be hoping that their good recent record against the Storm can get them over the line, as they will need it on the road. The Storm were lucky to get home last week against the Knights, as they found themselves in the midst of a battle that was closer than expected. It was surprising to say the least but the Storm are still yet to demonstrate their best this year. Much like the Bulldogs, their forwards are still proving themselves with the new interchange rules. Both sides have plenty of talent elsewhere but that is proving useless without quality possession. You can always count on quality from the Storm but that does appear to disappear at stages in matches and while they are struggling for consistency, the Bulldogs may sense an opportunity. They will need every bit of help though, with many people wondering how the Bulldogs would improve after their last outing and a few other sub-par efforts.

Team News
Storm = Marika Koroibete (suspension) has been named, along with Nelson Asofa-Solomona (18th) or Richie Kennar (19th) on the bench.
Bulldogs = Kerrod Holland comes into the centres in place of Chase Stanley (injured).

History
Overall = Storm 16 Bulldogs 20
Last 5 matches = Storm 0 Bulldogs 5
At AAMI Park = Storm 73% Bulldogs 33%
Form = Storm 1 win – Bulldogs 1 loss

Verdict
The Storm pride themselves on a home record and they will be out to overturn the Bulldogs recent efforts at AAMI Park and aim to capture their first win here over the Bulldogs since 2013. The Bulldogs will need more than a positive record to grab a win though, with their forwards needing to hold accountability for their efforts. They were poor last week and their halves rely heavily on the big men in the middle of the field to get them moving over the advantage line. The Storm will be up for the challenge too and appear to have the ability to combat the Bulldogs pack. How strongly remains to be seen and while they get the edge in the head-to-head option, the ideal investment lies within a close match. These two sides have a history of close matches in the regular season at this ground and this match should be no different. Expect it to be a grinding and dour affair in conditions that could also be wet and unfavorable for free-flowing football.

Suggested Bet
Either Team Under 6.5 points @ $2.75

Good luck!
Scooby