Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Sea Eagles made it two consecutive victories on the weekend with a narrow win against the Roosters. Many would say that the match should’ve gone the way of the home team, with a controversial call to disallow a try setting up victory for them. Regardless, the result stands and it was a moral boosting one at that. It is a tough road ahead though, with DCE out for around a month, as well as several other players. There are still a host of questions about the hope of the Sea Eagles and they have a long way to go before they are considered as a contender. The Rabbitohs had a week to forget last week; ambushed on the back of a 5-day turnaround against the Bulldogs. It didn’t help that they were without several big names including Sam Burgess, as the match was over well before the HT interval. The challenge for the Rabbitohs is to now pick themselves back up, adjust to the extended break and prepare for a tough match here. It is no secret that the Sea Eagles will struggle without DCE, but their forwards have been a focal point for them during the year. Having both teams missing their first-choice halfback does detract from the contest but it still should be a tough encounter in the middle of the field.
Team News
Sea Eagles = Apisai Koroisau is named at halfback for DCE (injured), while Steve Matai (injury) returns in the centres. Brenton Lawrence and Martin Taupau (both suspension) return to the starting team, forcing Lewis Brown and Josh Starling back to the bench. Luke Burgess (18th) and Blake Leary (19th) are also named.
Rabbitohs = Sam Burgess (injury) returns and will start the match at prop, while brother Tom (injury) will start from the bench, alongside Dave Tyrell, who has made way for Sam. Kirisome Auva’a has been promoted to the wing, with Michael Oldfield named on the bench, alongside Paul Carter, who has swapped starting roles with Chris Grevsmuhl.
History
Overall = Sea Eagles 18 Rabbitohs 12
Last 5 Matches = Sea Eagles 2 Rabbitohs 3
At Brookvale Oval = Sea Eagles 66% Rabbitohs 29%
Form = Sea Eagles 2 wins – Rabbitohs 2 losses
Verdict
The Sea Eagles were already questionable with DCE in the side and now that they are without him, they appear in danger of losing direction on the field. They paid big money for him and it will be a tough job to replace. It will also add pressure to Dylan Walker, who was able to play a different role with his halfback in the team. The Rabbitohs still have plenty to prove though, they were very disappointing last week and failed to hold strong in defence. Expect an improved showing this week, boosted by the return of two of the Burgess brothers. Should they gain control of the ruck, the Rabbitohs may find it easier to play the Sea Eagles through the middle. Aside from their consecutive victories, there are still plenty of questions raised about the chance of them in 2016 since the opening rounds. This game will be no different and expect the Rabbitohs to have the killer blow that the Sea Eagles opponents have lacked in previous weeks. With that in mind, it will not all one-way traffic; as the Sea Eagles will again improve, the Rabbitohs should win by no more than 2-converted tries.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.90
Gold Coast Titans v Brisbane Broncos
The Titans continued to surprise most fans with another win, this time against the Raiders on the road. That win now has them sitting 4th on the ladder, only separated from 1st on points difference. Each week, they’re proving how their structure is improving each week. In the past, Saturday’s game would’ve been one that they lost or were unable to fight back from. There is a sense that this Titans team is different to the one that has been present in previous years. The Broncos will head there focused on what they need to do but also fatigued after a bruising 1-point victory in Golden Point over the Cowboys. In one of the best club matches in recent memory, the Broncos fought back from the edge of defeat to win in somewhat controversial circumstances. Regardless, they will take the victory and move on to the challenge that is ahead of them this week. The Broncos have had their shortcomings in recent weeks, however Anthony Milford has been in outstanding form and a class of his own; to the point where he can take majority of the responsibility for the Broncos fight back last Friday. Expect him to again lead from the front, but also use the great platform that is being set from him by the forwards. Both of those factors will be needed in an unlikely “top of the table” clash.
Team News
Titans = Nathan Friend returns at hooker, forcing Daniel Mortimer back to the bench.
Broncos = Jack Reed (injury) returns to the centres and will be partnered by Corey Oates (injury) on the wing, with Lachlan Maranta and Greg Eden (dropped) both making way.
History
Overall = Titans 5 Broncos 14
Last 5 Matches = Titans 1 Broncos 4
At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 52% Broncos 56%
Form = Titans 2 wins – Broncos 1 win
Verdict
The Titans have surprised many with their play in recent weeks but this is their first solid test aside from their game against the Storm. If they were able to avoid their 15-minutes lapse in that game, the result may have been different. Their confidence is high at the moment and that will make them competitive; especially against the Broncos who are bound to still be recovering from a very physical encounter the week before. Nevertheless, they possess a different level of performance in 2016 and it should be no different here. Wayne Bennett will ensure that his team are ready to face the challenge of the Titans, including their strong pack of forwards. This game should be fairly tight also, with the Titans proving that they can set a solid defensive structure that pressures their opponents. Still, they are yet to hold out the same attacking threats that the Broncos have in their side but it will make for interesting viewing. As for the margin, the Broncos have only won one game this year by more than 13-points, while the Titans have only lost by that margin on one occasion, albeit when they faced the Storm. With that in mind, as well as the attack strength of the outside backs improving and the form of Milford, the Broncos may get out to a comfortable victory in the end.
Suggested Bet
Broncos -12.5 @ $1.90
Welcome back, Corey! = Corey Oates FTS @ $7 – He is back and expect him to make his mark immediately. Prior to his injury, Oates was in damaging form and the Broncos have made a habit of sweeping the ball to their left for their outside backs.
Win with this margin = Broncos 13-18 @ $5.50 – There is great value on offer for taking this margin on. It would be surprising to see the Titans completely blown away in this contest, so back the Broncos to win by no more than 3 converted tries.
Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights
The Storms 2-game road trip came to an end on Monday, with a loss to the Sharks at home. It was always going to be a tough game to win; even a strong recent record couldn’t help them as they went down 14-6. Their strong form that had been evident in the opening weeks of the competition appeared to abandon them, to the point where their forwards lacked the ability to break over the advantage line. They will be aiming to bounce back here, although they too have a short turnaround. The Knights will have the pressure on them also, as a loss to the Warriors means that they are still winless in 2016. They were in the contest with a chance of winning up until HT, but the Warriors came out in the second half and clicked into another gear. The pressure of the game became too much and their playmakers struggled to get their team across the advantage line behind a beaten pack of forwards. The Knights have a tough start to the season and at this stage, their first win may be a few more weeks away just yet.
Team News
Storm = Ben Hampton moves to the centres in place of Curtis Scott (injured), while Kenny Bromwich moves to the bench and Kevin Proctor is named in the second row.
Knights = Sione Mata’utia (suspension) returns to the centres, in place of Jake Mamo (dropped).
History
Overall = Storm 19 Knights 15
Last 5 Matches = Storm 2 Knights 3
At AAMI Park = Storm 73% Knights 25%
Form = Storm 1 loss – Knights 1 loss
Verdict
The Storm were less than impressive on Monday night and that spells plenty of trouble for the Knights, although they will count on the Storm still battling fatigue from a physical match against the Sharks. That being said, the Knights also have to contend with a difficult trip home from New Zealand and then another trip south of the boarder. They have hardly excited this season with their play and this game is more a matter of “how much” the Storm will win by. Their attacking structure eluded them on Monday, yet that may change here with less pressure from their opponents. The last time that happened, they relished the room offered by the Titans and suitable handed them an 18-point loss. This result should be no different and the Knights will again be on the wrong end of the score. The Knights haven’t lost a match this year by less than 3 converted tries and once the Storm find their groove, they will be too hard for the visitors to stop.
Suggested Bet
Storm 19+ @$2.05
Wests Tigers v Cronulla Sharks
The Tigers came out against the Eels on Monday with the hope that they could overcome a loss in Round 3. It wasn’t meant to be though, as they went scoreless over 80 minutes and struggled to crack their opponent’s defensive line. It wasn’t through lack of effort though, with the Tigers attack experiencing a good share of field position. The inclusion of Farah was meant to improve them, but at times he was guilty of halting his halves momentum. It was surprising to see him start from the bench but more so to see him taken from the field when the game was in the balance. There were no such issues for the Sharks, who turned around their effort from the previous week to prevail as winners over the Storm. The win silenced the talk that their attack was flat and uncreative; while their defence was again resolute. The quality that the Sharks offer each week is there for all to see and it will be the job of Shane Flanagan to ensure that all his stars are firing at the same time. Their strong home ground advantage worked in their favor and now they will head on the road with a short turnaround. Again, their forwards need to take control of the match and play their opponents through the middle, thus allowing more room for the creative and fast outside backs.
Team News
Tigers = Robbie Farah will start at hooker, with Dene Halatau moving back to the second row and Josh Aloiai to the bench. Chris Lawrence (suspension) will start in the second row, in place of Kyle Lovett, who will also start from the bench.
Sharks = Paul Gallen (injury) will start at lock, pushing Jason Bukuya back to the bench.
History
Overall = Tigers 17 Draw 1 Sharks 8
Last 5 Matches = Tigers 2 Sharks 3
At Campbelltown Sports Stadium = Tigers 47% Sharks 40%
Form = Tigers 2 losses – Sharks 1 win
Verdict
The Tigers struggled last week against the Eels, as a superior defence placed a stranglehold on their attack. The Sharks will offer a similar set of circumstances, as their defence allows an average of 12.5 points per game. The Tigers were an improved side from the previous week, but they are still not without their flaws and mistakes let them down. The Sharks realized where they went wrong in Round 3 and bounced back impressively. They will only grow in confidence from their win last week over Melbourne and their halves will be the players who benefit most of all. Expect the Tigers to come out a better team from last week and with both sides featuring after a match on Monday, the scores may be closer than most people think. At this stage though, the Sharks are offering more in attack and will have the Tigers players scrambling in defence. Not only that, the Tigers attacking ability has several question marks lingering and they need to go back to the structure that was working well for them in the opening weekend of the competition.
Suggested Bet
Sharks 1-12 @ $2.85
North Queensland Cowboys v St George-Illawarra Dragons
The Cowboys can consider themselves unlucky after going down to the Broncos last Friday in one of the best regular season matches in recent memory. That will do little to appease the Cowboys as they get over their 1-point loss in Golden Point but they will take plenty of confidence away from that match. Their execution was outstanding, as Michael Morgan again proved his worth outside JT. The Cowboys appear to have the right mix within their squad and are proving difficult for any team to stop each week. The Dragons may have their hands full trying to do just that, as scoring points has been an issue for them in 2016. They have scored the least amount of points of any team this year; instead, relying upon their strong defence to keep them in matches. It was able to hold strong for them last week against the Panthers, although a team with the quality of the Cowboys probably would’ve thrown more questions their way. Regardless, they showed fight to claw their way back into the contest and didn’t allow the pressure the Panthers were creating inside their own 20m to get the better of them. This match will be a good measure of where they are at, as they aim to make it 3 consecutive wins in 2016.
Team News
Cowboys = Javid Bowen is named in the centres to make his NRL debut, in place of Kane Linnett (injured).
Dragons = Benji Marshall (injury) will return at halfback, pushing Josh McCrone back to 18th man.
History
Overall = Cowboys 14 Dragons 12
Last 5 Matches = Cowboys 4 Dragons 1
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 82% Dragons 20%
Form = Cowboys 1 win – Dragons 2 wins
Verdict
Pressure is on the Dragons ahead of this match, which is the first in a 3-game Queensland road trip. To make matter worse, the Dragons have a horrendous record in Townsville and will need to turn around their play if they are to pressure the Cowboys. Back-to-back wins will give them confidence, as will the return of Benji Marshal, although that will only take them so far. The Cowboys have proved this season that they are in the elite class of the NRL this season. Expect this trend to continue here against a team that struggles at the best of times to score points. The Dragons will offer some resistance early on with rugged defence, but this will only last so long as the Cowboys pile relentless force on their opponents. There appears to be only one outcome in this contest and once the Cowboys crack the Dragons, there is no limit to what this score could end up.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys -12.5 @ $1.90
Rolling Cowboys = Cowboys 19+ @ $2.70 – If the Cowboys get momentum in attack, there is no limit to what they can achieve. With this in mind, as well as the Dragons shortcomings in attack, we may see the home team accumulate a large tally.
Sydney Roosters v New Zealand Warriors
The Roosters went agonizing close to stealing victory away from the Sea Eagles last week, with many believing that they should’ve been award a try at the death. It wasn’t the case and they are still without a victory in 2016. It was their most spirited performance, as they were bouncing back from a 40-nil drubbing the previous week. The fact that they are improving each week will boost the team’s confidence, but they still have simple errors (12 v Sea Eagles) halting their play and making their superior possession statistics (54%) useless. The Warriors had no such issues; as they were able to get their first win of the year in an impressive second half display. Heading into HT locked at 12-all, things were looking unstable for the Warriors and their coach, Andrew McFadden. A fire was lit underneath them though and they came out to prevail by 22-points. Their play in the second half was lead strongly by half Shaun Johnson, who played with more confidence when taking the ball to the line. In perspective, it was only a win against the Knights, however they will have another great opportunity to grab a win against a struggling team, thus making it 2-in-a-row. Hopefully, their forwards can continue to dominate the middle of the field and create second phase play through their offloads.
Team News
Roosters = Unchanged.
Warriors = Unchanged.
History
Overall = Roosters 15 Draw 1 Warriors 17
Last 5 Matches = Roosters 4 Warriors 1
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 56% Warriors 40%
Form = Roosters 4 losses – Warriors 1 win
Verdict
This game is a lot closer than most people think and one win last week will hardly make the Warriors problems disappear. There are still the lingering questions around how they will perform on the road and to put last week into perspective, it was only a win against the Knights. The Roosters are lower than them on the table, but are showing more and more fight each week. Trent Robinson is too good as motivator to let this run of form continue for too much longer. Overall, the confidence levels of backing each team is very low and for this reason alone, I would avoid investing on this match. The Warriors will break your heart again and again, while the Roosters are getting close to a victory, it will look like a long way off at some stages of this match. For the sake of tipping a winner, I will side with the Roosters, however this is based on hope more than anything else. The Warriors still do not travel well; especially to Gosford and this is another tough trip for them to begin the season.
Suggested Bet
Stay away and save your money!
Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers
The Eels against showed a difference in their performance from previous years, this time, grinding out an 8-point victory in a tough match against the Tigers. Only 2-points were scored in the first half, as a tight opening 20minutes to the match slipped away the longer the contest went on. By the end of the match, the Eels had committed 14 errors but relied upon their defence to hold strong. Keeping the Tigers scoreless in that match will enhance their confidence, although coach Brad Arthur has alluded to the fact that there is still plenty of improvement left in his team. The Panthers weren’t so fortunate, suffering a lost to the Dragons as they aimed to make it back-to-back victories. Instead, they were left wondering where it went wrong as they were only able to score 12 points over 80 minutes. Unlike the previous week, the Panthers were woeful in defence, missing a total of 50 tackles and continually allow the Dragons to build pressure when in possession of the ball. Combine that with their ineffectiveness in their opponents 20m zone and the explanation as to why they lost is straightforward. Player availability is still an issue for them and they will aim to improve each week; with this match again proving a tough test for the Panthers to start the season.
Team News
Eels = Unchanged.
Panthers = Matt Moylan (injury) returns at fullback for Will Smith (injured).
History
Overall = Eels 18 Panthers 15
Last 5 Matches = Eels 3 Panthers 2
At Pirtek Stadium = Eels 61% Panthers 40%
Form = Eels 3 wins – Panthers 1 loss
Verdict
The Eels are improving each and every week, to the point where they are seriously being considered as a threat to the NRL Premiership. However, if they commit the same amount of errors as they did last week, they will struggle against the better teams in the competition. The Panthers were disappointing last week too, to the point where they were again on the wrong side of the scoreboard when the match was there to win. That doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence to back them here, but they will be up for a fight. That is their nature in 2016 and they will be a hard team to move past each week. Nevertheless, the Eels have proven already that they too can fight over 80 minutes and they have the attack and defence to match. That makes them the favoured selection for this game and deserved of favoritism.
Suggested Bet
Eels 1-12 @ @ $2.75
The “other” flyer = Michael Jennings FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – Jennings went agonizing close last week and with the favor that the Eels, show to their left edge, expect them to come back into play again.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Canberra Raiders
The Bulldogs turned on a very impressive display last Friday, hammering the Rabbitohs and ensuring the match was decided well before HT. That effort has earned them the reward of a few extra days off prior to this match, where they will return to their spiritual home ground, Belmore. The highlight last week was tough to pick, but there was no better sight than their forwards rolling through the middle and then their backs in full-flight off the same play. The Raiders weren’t so lucky in their match, going down in the dying stages to the Gold Coast Titans. It was their first loss of the season and one that they didn’t see coming. It has been a tough few weeks for them though, losing their first-choice halves pairing and they can take some satisfaction that they got through it with just the one loss to their name. Thankfully, those two players return here to boost the Raiders heading into this game. There is a sense of vulnerability about the Bulldogs if you can catch them off-guard early on in a match, so expect the Raiders team to take it to their opponents early on in this contest. They are two big packs, so expect this match to be a bruising encounter over 80 minutes.
Team News
Bulldogs = Unchanged.
Raiders = Blake Austin (injury) and Aidan Sezer (injury) return in the halves, while Joey Leilua (suspension) is back in the centres. Elliot Whitehead moves into the second row and Sia Soliola shifts back to the bench.
History
Overall = Bulldogs 17 Raiders 13
Last 5 Matches = Bulldogs 4 Raiders 1
At Belmore Sports Ground = Bulldogs 57% Raiders 0%
Form = Bulldogs 1 win – Raiders 1 loss
Verdict
The Bulldogs were great last week but that effort was overshadowed by the fact that the Rabbitohs were so poor. That necessarily doesn’t mean the same level of form will carry over here, but it does give them a great chance of winning this match. Returning to Belmore will also motivate the players and the fans are sure to have the place rocking. Nevertheless, the Raiders will be ready for the challenge and are only enhanced by their first-choice halves returning. They have only played one match together this season and that worked very well for them; a dominating effort against the Panthers; a side that just lost to the Bulldogs with the final play of the match. While it will take a week or two for them to find their groove, they will make the Raiders more competitive as they’re bring a calm measure to their play. The fact that the average margin of victory has been 7.5 points (to the Bulldogs) in the past two games means that the line is of value. The Bulldogs should still win this game, but it will be a lot closer than most people think. Take the visitors to keep this match competitive right until the final whistle and make the home side work for their victory.
Suggested Bet
Raiders +7.5 @ $1.90
