State of Origin – Game 2
Game 2 has quickly crept up on fans and this time, Origin football will feature on the MCG. It has been a plan for a long time to take the game down to Melbourne and with everything that this ground offers, hopefully the contest can live up to the hype. With the series on the line, NSW will be hoping that they can upset the Maroons and force a decider in Game 3. It will not be easy though, with pressure building on this team and doubt continuing to grow about the potential of the players that have been selected in the Blues team. Queensland showed how tough they can be in Game 1, stealing the match from their opponents when it looked like the Blues would deliver and win on home turf. Playing in Melbourne is just about a home game for the Maroons, with fans expected to turn out in numbers to support the Queenslanders in their chance to close out the series. It will not be easy though and as we have seen before, Origin can certainly spring a surprise or two when the pressure builds and players are out of the comfort that club football offers compared to this level.
New South Wales
1. Josh Dugan 2. Brett Morris 3. Michael Jenning 4. Josh Morris 5. Will Hopoate
6. Mitchell Pearce 7. Trent Hodkinson 8. Aaron Woods 9. Robbie Farrah 9. James Tamou 11. Beau Scott 12. Ryan Hoffman 13. Paul Gallen (c)
Interchange: 14. Trent Merrin 15. Boyd Cordner 16. David Klemmer 17. Josh Jackson
There are only two changes for NSW, with their team strengthened by the return of Brett Morris and captain Paul Gallen. Their inclusions forced Daniel Tupou out of the team, Josh Jackson back to the bench and Andrew Fifita out of the team. A lot was made about the inability of the team (mainly the halves) to position the team where they needed to be in the closing minutes and snap a FG. At the end of the day, there are 13 player out there that have enough knowledge of the game to know where they need to be in that situation. With Laurie Daley showing confidence in his halves pairing and their play, now is the time that they need to stand up and be counted. There were plenty of positives to focus on from Game 1, most notably the performance of the two starting front rowers. With Gallen back into the team, one would think that the Blues will again focus on rolling their opponents through the middle of the field and hopefully opening up numerous attacking options with their offloads and second-phase play.
FTS and/or LTS Options
Best Choice = Brett Morris @ $11 – He is back in the Origin team and will want to remind fans of his worth early. Morris is a fantastic finisher in general play and will benefit from playing outside his brother, Josh, on the right edge.
Value = Ryan Hoffman @ $21 – Hoffman was continually going strongly to the line and it will be no different in this match. DCE will be the man that is targeted and his defense is questionable at best. If he is not protected close to the line, look for the halves to work to Hoffman as much as possible.
Man of the Match = Josh Dugan @ $11 – He was one of the Blues best last week and they will again rely heavily on him. Dugan is part of a team that is tipped to struggle to score points and in attack, he will offer more than most when troubling the Queensland defense.
Queensland
1. Billy Slater 2. Darius Boyd 3. Greg Inglis 4. Justin Hodges 5. Will Chambers 6. Johnathan Thurston 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Matt Scott 9. Cam Smith (c) 10. Nate Myles 11. Aidan Guerra 12. Sam Thaiday 13. Corey Parker
Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan 15. Josh Maguire 16. Matt Gillett 17. Jacob Lillyman
Business as usual for Queensland, with the one (major) change of DCE coming into the team for the injured Cooper Cronk. All of a sudden, he is loved again and the Queenslanders will need him more than ever. Ironically enough, it was the same match last year where DCE replaced an injured Cronk and he looked out of his depth. He can expect plenty of traffic to come his way, as can Thurston, who was able to escape it in Game 1 by switching sides of the field. There is also talk that Inglis will move to the wing and Chambers will play in the centres but if it isn’t broke, why is there a need to fix it? The Maroons forwards will be pressured over 80 minutes by the larger and more youthful Blues pack. However that exact game plan was implemented in Game 1, with little resolves. The Maroons will enjoy taking the contest to their opponents in this area of the field. Billy Slater is also expected to grab plenty of attention, with word around that following this match, he will receive shoulder surgery.
FTS Options
Best Choice = Darius Boyd @ $8 – Boyd’s record is outstanding at this level and he will again be a threat on the left. Expect a better showing from GI also, who will generally attract two defenders to him and is a chance of offloading to the vacant Boyd.
Value = JT @ $21 – Much like the efforts of Cronk to score first in Game 1, expect Thurston to dominate the attack without his partner in crime. He was dangerous when taking the ball to the line against the Blues last time and is not one to shy away from throwing a dummy and breaking through. On top of that, he has fantastic support play, making him a threat almost anywhere on the field.
Man of the Match = Nate Myles @ $34 – The popular bets are around Thurston ($6) and the MOM from Game 1, Cameron Smith ($11). However looking at how the Blues want to take the game to their opponents in the forwards, it will be up to one of the Maroon enforcers to stand up to them. Myles is certainly the man to do that and was unrecognized for his strong efforts in Game 1. Don’t expect him to be overlooked here with plenty of value on offer for him.
Verdict
Call me crazy, but I think the Blues can cause an upset. They were unlucky not to prevail in Game 1, but a distinct lack of experience lead to their demise. That isn’t suggesting that their problems are automatically fixed, but the inclusion of Gallen will lift the team and add familiarity. NSW were below their best, while the Maroons were functioning with ease thanks to a mountain of possession when it mattered. Hopefully, the NSW players have learnt from that effort and will improve into this match. On top of that, the Blues have two players coming into their team that strengthen it, while the Maroons lose Cronk. DCE will be a suitable replacement, but he offers a lot less than what Cronk does. The Maroons will be tough for the NSW team to beat and they will again have to be on their game early. Yet unlike Game 1, they can ill-afford to switch off at the beginning of the second half. Believe it or not, I think we are heading for a deciding Game 3. Regardless of which team wins, this game is again heading for another close contest. That is not just because of the closeness of the two teams, but also the poor weather that is tipped to affect the surface. With that in mind, the option of backing either team under a converted try is very lucrative, as are other markets that suggest a very tight contest.
Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.40
Line up for this one = NSW +3.5/Under 30.5 @ $3.60 – See the “Verdict” above and draw your own conclusions. This game will certainly be tight and there is more value here if you are game enough to take it on.
Good luck!
Scooby
