Broncos v Roosters

The Broncos head into this match well prepared after earning a week off following a hard-fought 4-point victory over the Cowboys. It also meant that they captured home field advantage, something that should prove vital towards the end of this match. In their last win, it was again the play of their halves that was a deciding factor. Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford lead their team around with poise and on the back of the dominating play by the forwards, they were able to score their sides only tries. The Roosters probably would’ve liked to avoid this matchup in Brisbane, however a loss against the Storm in Week 1 altered the direction they were heading. Nevertheless, they were able to regain momentum last week with a solid display against the Bulldogs; eventually winning the match 38-12. While there were controversial circumstances surrounding parts of the game, the Roosters always appeared to be in control of the match and once they gained complete control, they ran away with the result. Having Mitchell Pearce returning to their side will boost their confidence, with this match promising to be one of the most epic encounters of the season. A thrilling encounter has occurred each time these sides have met in 2015 and this game is heading the same way.

Team News
Broncos = Unchanged.
Roosters = Mitchell Pearce returns at halfback, with Jackson Hastings moving back to the bench.

History
Overall = Broncos 16 Roosters 14
Last 5 matches = Broncos 2 Roosters 3
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 59% Roosters 67%
Form = Broncos 3 wins – Roosters 1 win

2015 Form
Round 6 = Broncos 22 def. Roostesr 18 at Suncorp Stadium – The Broncos prevailed in golden point against a gallant Roosters team. The momentum swung back and forth between the two sides until Ben Hunt, showing his true value, landed the crucial blow late in the match.
Round 24 = Roosters 12 def. Broncos 10 at Allianz Stadium – Losing JWH and Mitchell Pearce throughout the match posed issues, however the Roosters lifted to another level the Broncos couldn’t match. This match set a standard of what the Broncos will have to match in their run home and since this loss, they haven’t looked back.

Verdict
Looking back at the two previous meetings this year, this game is expected to be a low-scoring encounter decided by less than a converted try. Both the Broncos and Roosters having improved their defence as the end of the season approaches and defence is expected to dominate majority of this match. Any evidence lies within the fact that in their past 3 matches, the Broncos have missed an average of 15.3 tackles, while the Roosters are better at 11.3. The Roosters are favourites for the match, very surprising considering the home ground advantage favouring Brisbane. However, the one thing that the Roosters are able to do better than most other teams is match the Broncos with power in the forwards. This battle will not be won there, it will be decided within the execution of the halves. The performance of Hunt and Milford has been exceptional and while Pearce is returning, he will be lacking match fitness. Add this to the fact that the Roosters will probably be fatigued already, whereas the Broncos have enjoyed a week off, and there is a chance that this could get the better of them towards the end of the match. The Broncos will know how to shut down their opponents attacking challenges and expect both sides to head after the opposing halves. Expect the home side to scrape home in an absolutely thrilling contest.

Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.70

Bucking Broncos = Broncos 1-12 @ $3.20 – If the Broncos are to prevail, it will by a narrow margin. Expect the home side to just scrape home, with the odds proving to be enticing in this area. Definitely worth a look!

Strike weapon = SKD FTS and/or LTS @ $9 – SKD has scored 4 tries in the past 2 Finals matches for the Roosters and he is benefitting from playing outside Blake Ferguson. He attracts the defenders and more often than not, SKD finds himself unmarked on the edge.

Storm v Cowboys

The Storm sprung the biggest surprise of the Finals series so far when they upset the Roosters on home soil. It was a game where their defence was paramount, with the Storm now having an ideal record where they have beaten all of the remaining teams in the competition within the last 5 weeks. Their defence has been a cornerstone of their efforts and with a week off, they will be ready to fire against a team they have will be rejuvenated following their win over the Sharks. The previous weeks loss at the hands of the Broncos was disappointing for the Cowboys, but they would’ve finished that match confident that they can match it with the premier teams in the competition. They made a large statement last week, blowing the Sharks off the park even before they had a chance to regroup. Ahead 19-nil at HT, many were expecting a slip in the Cowboys performance but that never came and they powered home to victory, impressively keeping their opponents scoreless. Their win was aided by the weight of possession, which was 61% in favour of them. Time with the ball leads to points however their 77% completion rate was also crucial. Having lost to the Storm only a few weeks ago at AAMI Park, the Cowboys will be prepared for what lies ahead. It has been one of their best seasons to date and they will want to capitalise on the chance to make their first Grand Final in 10 years.

Team News
Storm = Unchanged but a few doubts lingering around Marika Koroibete, Tim Glasby and Jordan McLean; but all should play.
Cowboys = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Storm 20 Cowboys 9
Last 5 matches = Storm 2 Cowboys 3
At AAMI Park = Storm 73% Cowboys 33%
Form = Storm 3 wins – Cowboys 1 win

2015 Form
Round 4 = Cowboys 18 def. Storm 17 at 1300Smiles Stadium – The Cowboys began their amazing run of form with a win against the Storm on home soil. Thurston magnificently controlled the match and he was well supported by Morgan.
Round 25 = Storm 14 def. Cowboys 6 at AAMI Park – Only a late try to the Cowboys could bring them within striking distance in a match where the Storm perfectly controlled the speed of the game. Their defence was also a key in setting up victory and the Cowboys looked pressured through their attacking movements.

Verdict
The statement the Cowboys made last week appears to have benefitted them, as they have managed to wrestle favouritism away from their hosts. Their victory was impressive, but in equal measure was the Storms over the Roosters. The fact that they have had a week off to alleviate fatigue will also enhance their performance. That can also work against them, as the momentum and intensity that the Cowboys will bring will be something that they are accustomed to. Whereas the previous game will be a defensive struggle, if the Cowboys are able to crack the Storm, there is no limit to what they can score in attack. This should work into the Cowboys favour; and one thing the Cowboys have proven this year is that they are able to learn from their mistakes. They did it last week against the Sharks and while they were not winners against the Broncos, their game plan demonstrated that they were a changed team. The only worry for them is that they have been unable to string together consecutive victories since August. However, their attacking power will be strongly supported by the efforts of their forwards, who on paper are superior to their opponents. The decision then comes down to how much the Cowboys will win by; and as this is Finals football, it would be surprising to see a team win by more than 2-converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys 1-12 @ $3

Good luck!
Scooby