Tigers (13th) v Rabbitohs (5th)

The hopeless Tigers again feature on Friday night football, this time against an opponent that may not be as vulnerable as the teams that have beaten them in recent weeks. Frustration is building for this team currently and unless there is a major shift in form, their season could end prematurely. This young team was lost for answers against the Titans in the first half of their match last week. Their second half revival only masked the problems that are plaguing this team and was more an indication of the Titans mentally relaxing. Over in Perth, there were no such issues for the Rabbitohs, as they turned in an impressive performance against the Warriors. Since their opening two matches, it is no secret that they have been below their best form. However in that win, they indicated that they could’ve turned a corner. Heading into this round, only the Eels and them are yet to have a bye, but they both will get one in Round 15. This makes a win here against the Tigers even more valuable, with players getting a much-needed rest on the back of a 3-game winning streak. The Tigers were gallant in losing when they faced the Rabbitohs earlier this year in Round 3, although they will need an improved effort if they are considering springing an upset on their opponents.

Team News

Tigers = Aaron Woods (Origin) is replaced by Keith Galloway is the starting side, as Matt Lodge fills the vacant bench spot. Both David Nofoaluma (injury) and Tim Simona (injury) are back into the team in the centres.

Rabbitohs = Alex Johnson shifts back to fullback to cover for GI (Origin), as John Olive comes onto the wing to cover for that move. Issac Luke is out at hooker and it is not surprising to see Cameron McInnes named as his cover.

History

Overall = Tigers 10 Rabbitohs 15

Last 5 matches = Tigers 1 Rabbitohs 4

At ANZ Stadium = Tigers 42% Rabbitohs 54%

Form = Tigers 4 losses – Rabbitohs 3 wins

Verdict

After their performance and execution in their last 4 matches, the hopes of the Tigers are rather low. Remove Woods from the situation on top of Farrah, and someone within this young Tigers team is going to have to put their hand up to take control of the team. No one really did it last week and if they don’t, things could get very ugly. The only issue facing the visitors will be the fact that they have a quick turnaround following a trip to Perth, but Michael Maguire is a smart coach and will be reiterating the importance of winning this match heading into a bye. Losing Issac Luke and GI would normally prove problematic, however the Rabbitohs have two very talented players to replace them in those important positions. Thankfully, they are still able to work with the same pack of forwards that were dominant last week. The Rabbitohs should be able to cover the line with ease and from that point onwards; it could get very ugly for the Tigers yet again.

Suggested Bet

Rabbitohs -7.5 @ $1.90

Bouncing to victory = Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.60 – With confidence under their belts from last week, expect the Rabbitohs to pile on the points. As mentioned above, things could get very ugly if the Tigers do not choose to tighten up the middle of the field.

Welcome to first grade = John Olive FTS and/or LTS @ $10 – He is debuting on the wing and if the mail is true, this youngster will be a handful for his opponents. Maguire has a knack of not promoting a player before he is ready and his patience had paid off in the past.

Warriors (8th) v Roosters (6th)

The Warriors did some travelling last week, as they headed across to Perth to face the Rabbitohs. Following their loss, they are still winless in the west and perhaps the different time zone and climate isn’t to their fancy. That loss was especially disappointing, as there was a chance that the Rabbits were there for the taking given their questionable form. Returning home is certain to change their fortunes, although they cannot rely on that for a win against the Roosters, who are aiming to bounce back from a loss. They were stunned on the road against the Sharks 10-4 last week, failing to execute when it mattered most and unable to build pressure on their opponents. This was after a 3-game winning streak where they scored an average of 28 points and conceded a total of just 16. They lacked creativity at the end of attacking sets, while their usually strong and dominant forwards, were unable to produce a platform that allowed their outside backs to work their magic. Now, with several players missing due to representative selection on top of a trip to NZ with a short-turnaround, the task of winning on the road against the Warriors has become increasingly difficult.

Team News

Warriors = Sam Tomkins (injury) and Konrad Hurrell (suspension) both return to the starting team in their respective positions. This forces Tuimoala Lolohea back to the bench and Johnathan Wright out of the team. Jacob Lillyman and Ryan Hoffman (both Origin) are replaced by Charlie Gubb (bench) and Raymond Faitala-Mariner (second row), with Albert Vete to start at prop.

Roosters = Michael Jennings, Mitchell Pearce, Body Cordner and Aiden Guerra (all Origin) are out of this match. Blake Ferguson (injury) returns in the centres, while Mitch Aubusson moves back to the second row. SKD shifts into the centres and Brendan Elliot comes onto the wing. Jackson Hastings will start at halfback, with Matt McIlwrick filling the void on the bench. Sio Siua Taukeiaho starts in the second row, while Willie Manu comes onto the bench. JWH is also a late withdrawal from the team, with a certain replacement yet to be named.

History

Overall = Warriors 17 Draw 1 Roosters 13

Last 5 matches = Warriors 2 Roosters 3

At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 59% Roosters 36%

Form = Warriors 1 loss – Roosters 1 loss

Verdict

With a host of players missing in key positions, winning this match appears to be a difficult task for the Roosters. The Warriors were poor last week, although prior to that, there was plenty to get excited about. The middle-period of the season is generally a strong one for them, as they suffer from representative duty less than other clubs. The Roosters will still be strong and desperate to overturn their performance from last week, but the Warriors tend to lift another level when they’re at home. Several of their players need to lift n the absence of others, while they would adherently benefit from Shaun Johnson asserting his authority on this match. The Warriors should be able to cove the line, which is less than a try but if you’re after more value, then you may want to look elsewhere. They will not make things easy for themselves or their fans, so expect the Warriors to keep you waiting on the edge of your seat for 80 minutes.

Suggested Bet

Warriors -3.5 @ $1.80

Keeping things tight = Warriors 1-12 @ $2.85 – As mentioned above, the Roosters will be out to bounce back from a poor effort last week. So too will the Warriors, meaning that things will be tight. With defence always improving for the visitors, points may be hard to come by and the recommended margin in under 2 converted tries.

Play to your form, Shaun = Shaun Johnson to score a try @ $3.25 – This is a great situation for Johnson to make a statement in this match. He is the key point of the Warriors team and coming up against a new pairing, he should look to show his opponents how it’s done. Watch for him to take the ball to the line and cross over at any stage, for a nice little collect.

Titans (11th) v Bulldogs (7th)

Both teams’ head into the sole match on Sunday with winning form, following fairly impressive performances in matches against equal opponents. The Titans will relish the extra day or two that is given to back up from their Friday night victory over the Titans. Notwithstanding the fact that it became an ugly victory, there were certain points over the 80minutes for them to positively reflect on. They are still sitting outside the Top 8 and will need consecutive winning efforts to get their season back on track. The Bulldogs set a high standard against the Dragons, winning by a comfortable margin in the end amongst controversial internal circumstances. Thankfully, team selection issues can take a back seat for this game and they can focus on continually build pressure on their opponents through their forwards. That was a cornerstone of their success last week and even without James Graham on the field, they rolled through the middle of the field with ease and build pressure on the Dragons through offloads. As equally impressive was their defence, missing just 17 tackles over the entire 80 minutes (average 27.3 for the season). If they can continue the year with similar performances, they will rocket up higher on the table and teams will remember what they are capable of.

Team News

Titans = Daniel Mortimer moves to halfback to cover for Kane Elgey (injured), with Kierran Moseley comes into hooker and Matt Robinson comes onto the bench. Eddy Pettybourne replaces Nate Myles (Origin), while Mark Ioane replaces Dave Taylor (dropped) on the bench.

Bulldogs = Brett and Josh Morris, Trent Hodkinson, Josh Jackson and David Klemmer (all Origin) are out of this match, as is captain James Graham (injured). Sam Perrett shifts to fullback, while Corey Thompson (wing) and Chase Stanley (centre) come into the team. Josh Reynolds will start at 5/8 and partner Moses Mbye in the halves. Lloyd Perrett comes in at lock, as Greg Eastwood shifts to the second row. Sam Kasiano will start, with Antonio Kaufusi, Herman Ese’ese and Danny Fualalo all come onto the bench.

History

Overall = Titans 6 Bulldogs 5

Last 5 matches = Titans 3 Bulldogs 2

At Cbus Super Stadium = Titans 49% Bulldogs 25%

Form = Titans 1 win – Bulldogs 2 wins

Verdict

Taking a quick look at the recent history between the two sides and surprisingly, the Titans have won their last 3 matches against the Bulldogs. That will matter little here though, as the Bulldogs demonstrated last week that they are about to embark on a climb back up the competition ladder. They are missing a host of players, but such is the quality of this team and a testament to their depth, it should have minimal impact. If anything, the Bulldogs are more dangerous with Moses Mbye playing in the halves alongside Josh Reynolds; perhaps a guide for what the future holds for this club. The Titans will find points difficult to come by, with their halves severely depleted, while they have lost firepower in the forwards. A small mental lapse against the Tigers last week gave an insight into how vulnerable they can be and if the same was to be done here, things could get very ugly. Their win last week propelled the Bulldogs into the Top 8 and now is the time for them to consolidate that position and win with ease against opponents that are ranked lower than them.

Suggested Bet

Bulldogs 13+ @ $3.40

Be greedy! = Bulldogs 13-18 @ $6.50 – There is already fantastic value around the “Suggested Bet”, but if you cannot help yourself and want more, then consider this option. Points should be easy to come by and with the Titans unable to build pressure on their opponents with creativity, a large gap between the two sides could be created.

Follow my lead = Josh Reynolds FTS and/or LTS @ $17 – He only received 20 minutes of game time last week but when he entered the match, he wanted to be involved in everything. Expect a similar showing from Reynolds here; and now that he is starting the match, he will be his usual self, being involved in everything possible over the 80 minutes.

Storm (3rd) v Eels (15th)

In Round 9, the Storm made a strong statement to the rest of the competition against the Eels, that they were back on track after a loss to the bottom placed Sea Eagles. Since then, they have gone from strength to strength, only looking vulnerable and lacklustre two weeks ago against the Roosters. They will have a difficult time attempting to cover for the loss of crucial players to injury and representative duty, but will take confidence from the fact that they have been successful against the Eels already this season. As for their opponents, they were brilliant last week against the Cowboys, albeit up until the 56th minute where they lead their opponents 30-6. For the remaining 24-minutes, they were diabolical and allowed the Cowboys to record a miraculous victory after coming from behind. Again, they only have themselves to blame, as the frustration was definitely evident on the face of coach Brad Arthur in the press conference. If they could (only) hold their form for the duration of a match, there is no limit to what they can achieve. There is a sense that they can cause an upset over a depleted Melbourne outfit but then again, they are a very unpredictable outfit.

Team News

Storm = Kurt Mann is named to replace Will Chambers (Origin) in the centres, while Cameron Munster remains at fullback in Slater’s absence. Ryan Hinchliffe is named at hooker in place of Cameron Smith, with Young Tonumaipea coming onto the bench. Ben Hampton is named at halfback to replace Cooper Cronk (injured).

Eels = Will Hopoate (Origin) is replaced by Ryan Morgan in the centres; Bureta Faraimo comes into the team onto the wing. Darcy Lussick (suspension) comes back into the team and will feature off the bench.

History

Overall = Storm 18 Eels 11

Last 5 matches = Storm 4 Eels 1

At AAMI Park = Storm 75% Eels 0%

Form = Storm 1 win – Eels 1 loss

Verdict

If you were judging the Eels on their first half form, they would be deserving of the favouritism that has been given to them. That is largely due to the players that are unavailable for the Storm. When they are out, people tend to panic and doubt their potential. That is warranted to some degree, but the tide is changing at the Storm. Sooner or later, they are going to have to come to terms with life after the Big 3. Bellamy appears to be grooming some youngsters to step in and fill the void that is about to be left. This will be a major test for them, but one that is not beyond them as the Eels are vulnerable. The fact that they gave up a large lead only highlighted how poor they can be. Fast-forward to the end of the week and the comments made by Chris Sandow only further emphasised the problems that still lie within this team. I give the Storm a massive chance of causing an upset, especially considering their forwards are remaining the same. That has always been a strength and it remains to be seen whether or not the Eels will be able to hold them and reduce the room for the halves to operate.

Suggested Bet

Storm 1-12 @ $3.40