2015 NRL Grand Final – Broncos v Cowboys

After the Broncos overcame the Roosters in style last Friday, it was apparent that the NRL Grand Final would take place without a Sydney team in it. Once the Cowboys sealed their fate, this match was going to be an all-Queensland affair. If their previous meetings are anything to go by, this match is going to be very fast and highly skilful. The Broncos were dynamic in attack and defence last week, not allowing the Roosters to get ahead at any stage of the match. While their opponents fought back after a slow start, the Broncos had more to give as their defence was a backbone on their execution. They were the favourites in that match and played that way, whereas the Cowboys headed down to Melbourne as the underdogs and caused an upset. The way they went about that match confused and disrupted the Storm, most notably the speed of the ruck and attack of the halves. It was more impressive to see them crack the Storms defence, the same team that had conceded an average of 9.6 points in their past 5 matches. Of course, the match was established in the middle by their forwards, who were up for the challenge from the opening moments. If they are to win again here, their forwards must dominate the Broncos from the outset and release the pressure on Thurston. The extra room that they will aim to create could be the difference between winning and losing. Considering that these two sides have met three times this year already, they will be acutely aware of what each has to offer over 80 minutes and the stage is set for one of the most thrilling and exciting deciders that fans have witnessed in recent years.

Team News
Broncos = Unchanged.
Cowboys = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Broncos 26 Draw 1 Cowboys 11
Last 5 matches = Broncos 2 Cowboys 3
Form = Broncos 2 wins – Cowboys 2 wins

2015 Form
Round 3 = Broncos 44 def. Cowboys 22 at Suncorp Stadium – It was a lop-sided match that the Broncos dominated; leading the Cowboys 32-6 at HT. The visitors were caught off guard and were still winless to start the season. The Broncos leaked a few late tries making the score somewhat respectable.
Round 10 = Cowboys 31 def. Broncos 20 at 1300 Smiles Stadium – Michael Morgan dominated the game, scoring 3 tries to lead his team to victory. It was a completely different Cowboys team as this time; they were full of confidence and showed the Broncos what they are capable of.
Finals Week 1 = Broncos 16 def. Cowboys 12 at Suncorp Stadium – In one of the best games of the season, the Broncos just edged out the Cowboys; as penalty goals were the difference. The Cowboys were coming home strong though and were perhaps unlucky to not snatch victory.

Verdict
As has been said all week, there is nothing between these two sides. With the Broncos ahead based upon their meetings this season, they were favourites when markets opened. Since then, Thurston has won the Dally M and many believe that this will spark JT and his team into action when it matters most. The Cowboys learned a lot from their defeated at the hands of the Broncos in the opening week of the Finals, coming back stronger in their previous two matches and increasing their momentum and confidence. They made a loud statement against the Sharks and lifted to another level altogether against the Storm, a team that defeated the Broncos in Round 26. The fact that this match moves away from Suncorp Stadium will assist the Cowboys, but only to a certain degree; the Cowboys enjoy a 75% away record this year, compared with the Broncos 66%. The Broncos are expected to target JT in every area of the match, limiting his effectiveness in attack by directing traffic his way. If this plan works, pressure will build on the Cowboys, but they will be out to protect their number one asset. The forward packs of the two teams will be crucial in establishing control and they will need to be supported strongly by their respective benches. The Cowboys appear to have the edge in this area, with size and skill impacting on their performance and more quality coming onto the field throughout the match. As for the forwards, the both teams are equal, with the Cowboys possessing more dynamic power and speed compared with the Broncos. They are also ahead in the halves, whereas the Broncos have the edge in the outside backs. While the game is expected to be close, the Cowboys have won their past 5 matches by an average of 16.3 points and when they get ahead, they pile on the points towards the end of the second half. Before you start to think 13+, the Broncos rarely lose by a large margin and this ensures that things will be close, right up until the end. The time is right for the Cowboys to capture their inaugural Premiership!

Suggested Bet
Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.90

Hedge your bets = Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.60 – As mentioned above, this game will be tight and could go down to the last play. If you cannot make up your mind, then settle for investing on this betting option, just like the margin between the two sides, at the same intensity, just over a few weeks ago.

FTS and/or LTS Options
Broncos = Corey Oates @ $10 – Oates is the Broncos equal leading try scorer (with Milford) and a major threat in any position. He is calm under pressure on the Broncos like to run a sweeping play to their left hand side for him to appear in open space.
Cowboys = Michael Morgan @ $13 – Morgan’s fingerprints are all over the Cowboys success, scoring 4 tries in the past 2 weeks. Prior to that, he crossed for a hat trick of tries when the Cowboys beat the Broncos in Round 10 and will pressure on JT, Morgan can find himself against an opponent that he may just beat one-on-one.

Clive Churchill Medal
Broncos = Darius Boyd @ $17 – Boyd was at his best last week, scoring the opening try and averaging 8.8m per carry and the last time they faced the Cowboys, he averaged 10.5m. The way he will provide stability at the back and chime into the backline will enhance the Broncos performance and he is crucial to his team’s chances.
Cowboys = Matt Scott @ $11 – While JT is the obvious choice (@ $2.75), Scott’s contribution to his team has been somewhat overlooked. He has lifted to another level in the finals, averaging 10.8m per carry on top of 19.6 tackles in each of the three matches. This will not go unnoticed and is offering extremely more value compared with his involvement in a game.

Good luck!
Scooby