Roosters v Bulldogs

The Roosters 12-game losing streak came to a screeching halt last week in the first match of the Finals, upset by the Storm on home turf. Their bubble was always going to burst, but it was the fashion in which the loss occurred that was most disappointing. For the first time in a long time, they were dominated from the opening moments of the match, with the Storm continually slowing down the speed of the ruck. Thankfully they have a second chance and now it is sudden death for them against a team they have beaten twice already this year. The Bulldogs perhaps can consider themselves a little lucky to be in the position that they are, considering that they had to head to golden point against the Dragons. They eventually prevailed 11-10, but the match could’ve gone either way. It wasn’t the way the match was expected to play out and while credit has to be handed to the Dragons, committing 11 errors during Finals time and giving away 10 penalties isn’t going to work for too much longer. They are also lucky that a few of their players are not sitting on the sidelines, as they avoided suspension and will be here to take the field. This is now their toughest test for the year and a loss will only end their season prematurely.

Team News
Roosters = Jackson Hastings was originally named on the bench but with Pearce unable to play, he will start at halfback and Suaia Matagi (18th) will come into the team.
Bulldogs = Unchanged.

History
Overall = Roosters 15 Bulldogs 19
Last 5 matches = Roosters 4 Bulldogs 1
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 63% Bulldogs 54%
Form = Roosters 1 loss – Bulldogs 6 wins

2015 Form
Round 10 = Roosters 24 bt. Bulldogs 10 at ANZ Stadium – It was meant to be a battle between the two halves for a NSW SOO spot, but it didn’t live up to expectation. Once the Bulldogs lost James Graham, the form of the home side spiralled and they failed to dominate the Roosters in the middle, with Jake Friend and RTS dominating.
Round 21 = Roosters 38 bt. Bulldogs 28 at Allianz Stadium – The sheer weight of possession to the Roosters allowed them to jump to a 22-nil lead inside 25 minutes. The Bulldogs fought their way back into the match, leading 26-22 with 12 minutes left. The Roosters fought back though and powered to yet another impressive victory.

Verdict
Based on the odds offered, the Roosters are expected to bounce back from their loss last week and capture this match. That may be the case, however they are still going to have to work hard for their victory. The Bulldogs have a power set of forwards that will attempt to capitalise on the absence of JWH and dominate the middle. In saying that, at stages this season when they have been expected to control their opponents, they haven’t been able too. While they are big, powerful, strong and fast, so too are the Roosters; matching their opponents in this area. The outside backs are where the two sides are separate; with the Roosters have a lot more quality and class to get them over the line. Of course, the amount of ball that these players will receive will hinge on the performance of players within the forwards. Yet, after the way they have beaten the Bulldogs this season, nothing should phase them here against the Bulldogs. As for the margin, this is Finals football for a reason and 3 out of 4 matches last week were decided by less than 6-points. The Roosters average a 12-point margin over the Bulldogs in 2015 and it would be surprising to see the margin of victory go beyond 2-converted tries.

Suggested Bet
Roosters 1-12 @ $2.75

Ferg, go son! = Blake Ferguson FTS and/or LTS @ $11.50 – The further the Roosters are progress, the more responsibility Ferguson is taking on. He scored the last try last week, taking his tally to two in consecutive weeks. He is proving difficult to handle and the Bulldogs will have to make sure they are structured otherwise he could come up against an inferior defender.

Cowboys v Sharks

The Cowboys headed to Brisbane last week with a chance to upset the home side, only to return back to Townsville following a loss. It is not all bad news though, as they were perhaps the strongest of the losing teams in Week 1 of the Finals and have a second chance. They fought right until the final whistle and the 4-point loss will certainly take a toll on the fitness of their squad. While they had slightly more possession, they were let down by their 68% completion rate; as mistakes continually released the pressure on their opponents. There were no such issues for the Sharks, who lead from start to finish against last years Premiers, the Rabbitohs. It took a while for them to edge ahead, but once dynamic 5/8 Jack Bird opened the score in the 21st minute, there was no looking back. There were special performances across the field from a host of their stars, most notably Wade Graham and Paul Gallen. It is no surprise that the Sharks also grinded their way to victory. It will be a key component of their victories in matches to come and they will be relying heavily on it here to upset and halt the momentum that the Cowboys halves can build. Considering they have beaten the Cowboys twice this year already, they will consider themselves extremely confident, disregarding the trip north to Townsville.

Team News
Cowboys = Rory Kostasyn (dropped) is back on an extended bench, pushing Ray Thompson to 18th man.
Sharks = Unchanged, aside from Matt Prior (18th) is included for the trip north.

History
Overall = Cowboys 13 Sharks 20
Last 5 matches = Cowboys 2 Sharks 3
At 1300Smile Stadium = Cowboys 80% Sharks 50%
Form = Cowboys 1 loss – Sharks 1 win

2015 Form
Round 16 = Sharks 24 bt. Cowboys 18 at 1300Smile Stadium – The Cowboys were cruising, on an 11-game winning streak and at home to the Sharks. At 18-nil ahead, things looked to be going to plan. The Sharks rallied though, fighting back to score the winning try with 15 minutes remaining. They held on to stamp their claims and record an epic victory.
Round 22 = Sharks 30 bt. Cowboys 18 at Remondis Stadium – The Sharks caused yet another upset to solidify their spot in the Top 8 and push for a claim in the Top 4. Their last minute try sealed the deal for the home team and the Cowboys were left wondering what may have been.

Verdict
Given the form of the Sharks this season against the Cowboys, it is surprising to see them head into this match as remarkable outsiders. It almost doesn’t appear to be fair, especially when you throw in the fact that the Cowboys and Sharks share an equal home/away record (67%) in 2015. This game is on a “knifes edge” and for that reason, invest in the line that is being offered. It would be surprising if this match would decided by more than a converted try, with the two sides aiming to build defensive pressure in every manner possible. As for the winner, momentum is with the Sharks and they are hard to overlook. At times though, they can overplay their hands and while it may keep them in this match, the Cowboys will have their home crowd to lift them over the line. That isn’t to suggest that an upset is going to occur; if it did, it would not be surprising. However the way the Cowboys performed last week and have done all season, suggests that they have what it takes to rise above the Sharks and play a controlled brand of football that will give them a victory and book them a ticket down to Melbourne for a Grand Final qualifier.

Suggested Bet
Sharks +8.5 @ $1.85

Tri your luck = Either team under 6.5 points @ $3 – As mentioned above, this game is going to be tight. It would be surprising to see a margin above a converted try. The Sharks only blew the Rabbitohs away because they were a tired team and if wasn’t for a late try the last time they met, the margin would’ve been under a try.

Good luck!
Scooby