Roosters v Storm

The Roosters finished the season as Minor Premiers for the third straight season and did it in style with a dominating display over their bitter rivals, the Rabbitohs. They were up by this score at HT and perhaps took their foot off the accelerator somewhat; however what was displayed in the first half was a team that is close to the best in the league. They didn’t even need to win the match to accomplish that feat, after the Broncos were beaten on a Thursday and now have the chance to rest some players with a win here over the Storm. Many thought that they would make the most of that opportunity last week but they pushed on and prepared strongly for the Finals. The Storm were also impressive, heading to Brisbane and upsetting the Broncos. It showed that they are peaking at the right time of the season and that they are not a team to forget about in the run home. With a few decisions going their way, they have landed in 4th position on the ladder and a second chance if they were to lose here. They will be up against it though, with the Roosters having threats in every part of their game. Defence will be a key, as will winning the arm wrestle within the forwards. The Storm will need to shut them down in this area first and then hope that it disrupts the rest of their opponents play. If not, there is every chance that the Roosters are going to extend their winning streak to 13 matches.

Team News
Roosters = Unchanged.
Storm = Tim Glasby comes back into the starting side from the bench, swapping roles with Jordan McLean.

History
Overall = Roosters 14 Storm 15
Last 5 matches = Roosters 4 Storm 1
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 75% Storm 36%
Form = Roosters 12 wins – Storm 2 wins

2015 Form
Round 12 = Roosters 24 def. Storm 2 at Allianz Stadium – The Storm were again without Slater and the match was dominated by the Roosters pack. They gave nothing away to their opponents and kept them to their lowest total in over a year.
Round 7 = Storm 17 def. Roosters 16 at AAMI Park – It was wet and slippery conditions and ironically enough, the personell missing is similar to this game. There was no Slater and JWH took no part in the second half. The Storm showed grit an determination to get over the line, with Cronk slotting the winning FG with 40 seconds left.

Verdict
The Roosters are in a very strong position heading into this match but this will not affect the Storm and they will be up for the challenge. The Roosters appear to have a stronger pack of forwards that will be complimented strongly by their outside backs. Nevertheless, they must win the battle in the middle of the field over their opponents if they want to win this game. If Pearce is to return to their side, their chances of winning this match will increase, as it takes pressure away from Maloney and RTS in attacking movements. The Storm will be out to target these two players and have proven in the past how tight they can keep it against highly ranked opponents. Their defence is expected to remain strong, but the Roosters are performing on another level at this stage of the season. Look for the Storm to build pressure on the key players from the other side, but with so many attacking threats, the visitors will have their hands full. This game will be extremely tight but ultimately, the class and power of the Roosters will shine through and they should win themselves through to the Grand Final qualifier.

Suggested Bet
Roosters 1-12 @ $2.75

Fergie Ferg! = Blake Ferguson FTS and/or LTS @ $12.50 –

Bulldogs v Dragons

The Bulldogs had somewhat of a scare last week against the Warriors, but did enough to get home against their struggling opponent. It was always going to be a dangerous game for them, with the visitors having nothing to lose with their efforts. They got through that games in the end and now their attention turns to the next four weeks and the hope that they will be able to use their monster forward pack to dominate their opponents. It was a different story for the Dragons, despite being winners, there was a lot left to be desired from their narrow win over the Tigers. They held a 30-8 lead with 18 minutes remaining, but allowed the Tigers to surge home to send the match into “golden point”. It was a sign that the Dragons are definitely  remarkably off the benchmark that is being set by the premier teams in the competition. They will need to improve dramatically if they are to overcome the Bulldogs, nevertheless, they will draw confidence from their win over their opponents earlier in the year.

Team News
Bulldogs = Brett Morris (rested) returns at fullback, with Sam Perrett shifting to the wing. Aiden Tolman is back into the starting team, swapping with Sam Kasiano, who returns to the bench.
Dragons = Unchanged, with Mark Ioane (16th), Justin Hunt (18th) and Craig Garvey (20th) added to the bench. Nathan Green shifts to 19th man.

History
Overall = Bulldogs 18 Dragons 11
Last 5 matches = Bulldogs 4 Dragons 1
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 57% Dragons 52%
Form = Bulldogs 5 wins – Dragons 1 win

2015 Form
Round 13 = Bulldogs 29 def. Dragons 16 at ANZ Stadium – The Dragons were leading the comp, but the Bulldogs turned on an impressive display with Moses Mbye dominating. It was even more impressive after losing James Graham after 17minutes, while halfback Trent Hodkinson was also benched, with Josh Reynolds adding a spark with 20minutes to go.
Round 6 = Dragons 31 def. Bulldogs 6 at ANZ Stadium – The Bulldogs were missing several players in their team and were ambushed by an intense Dragons team. Widdop was a star, assisting for two of their tries and contributing to others. This win was the beginning of the Dragons revival that lasted up until the middle of the year.

Verdict
After the Dragons efforts in their past two games, there is a distant gap between them and the quality that is needed to progress in this competition. Facing the Bulldogs isn’t ideal either; with the home side having one of the largest packs in the competition. For starters, the Dragons do not have the power to stop them and this will lead to them continually playing on the back foot. Then there is the problem of them scoring points; an issue that is only compounded without Gareth Widdop. If here were there, they would definitely be more dangerous as the pressure would be lifted off surrounding players. Without him though, there is little spark within their attack. With that in mind, they will be relying on a strong defensive structure to get them through and that will keep things tight for a period of time, but it can only last for so long. Eventually, the home side will pull away from their opponents and get home by more than 2 converted tries. To add support to that, the Bulldogs their average margin of victory in their past 7 matches is 12-points, but 4 of those have been by more than 14; while the Dragons have an average margin of 16.4-points in their past 5 losses.

Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 13+ @ $2.10

Make the specific call = Bulldogs 13-18 @ $4.50 – As mentioned above, the Dragons haven’t performed well when losing. They concede plenty of points and have a hard time competing with sides above them on the competition ladder. They only managed to win 4 of their last 12 matches and appear out of their depth in this match. Finals intensity may limit the Bulldogs scoring, but only to a certain extent, as they will still win comfortably.

Broncos v Cowboys

The Broncos had their hopes of capturing the Minor Premiership dashed by the Storm last week, but they were competitive in a match where they were missing a few player. Their execution demonstrated how crucial Ben Hunt is to their team; while they can rely upon their defence to hold strong, they also need their halves working together to build pressure on their opponents. That was absent and when it came to scoring points, they were flat. Thankfully for their chances, they didn’t lose home-ground advantage in the Finals, with the pressure now on the Cowboys to head south to cause an upset. They will head into this match full of confidence after overcoming the Titans 42-12. Unfortunately, it wasn’t all positive as the Cowboys again started a match slowly, finding themselves behind 12-nil after 12 minutes. If this trend is to continue, the Cowboys may find themselves out of the Finals sooner than expected. Thankfully, they will be boosted by the return of Michael Morgan in the halves, releasing the pressure on JT and increasing the attacking threats across the park. The Broncos will be wary of this, as they were overrun by the Cowboys in their last meeting. The two sides appear evenly matched and this is a match that fans have looked forward to since their positions on the table were confirmed.

Team News
Broncos = Ben Hunt (injury) returns to play halfback, along with Alex Glenn (suspension), who will start in the second row. Jordan Kahu (injury) is back on the wing for Lachlan Maranta
Cowboys = Michael Morgan (injury) returns at 5/8, forcing Ray Thompson to 18th man alongside Matt Wright (19th). Jason Taumalolo will start at lock, swapping with Ben Hannant , who will come off the bench.

History
Overall = Broncos 25 Draw 1 Cowboys 11
Last 5 matches = Broncos 2 Cowboys 3
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 59% Cowboys 43%
Form = Broncos 1 loss – Cowboys 1 win

2015 Form
Round 10 = Cowboys 32 def. Broncos 20 at 1300Smiles Stadium – Michael Morgan was the key to success for the home side, scoring a hat-trick of tries to lead his team to victory. Things were very tight though, with scores locked with just 10minutes remaining in the match. The Cowboys had a high completion rate, while the Broncos mistakes let them down, keeping them scoreless for an extended period of time.
Round 3 = Broncos 44 def. Cowboys 22 at Suncorp Stadium – The Cowboys were hopelessly disappointing and the Broncos took a 32-6 lead into HT. By that stage, the game was over and the points the Cowboys scored only masked their real problems. In saying that, this was the last game the Cowboys dropped before they went on an amazing run of form.

Verdict
Amazingly, the Broncos have never beaten the Cowboys in a Finals match. As hard as they stat is to believe, it is realistic considering the two sides have only met one another four times. The Cowboys will fancy their chances in this match, mainly because they have beaten the Broncos before this season. Nevertheless, that is also the case with the home team and they will have a large amount of support behind them. This game is really too close to call; with fans being the benefiters as it goes down to the wire. If forced to make a call, I would lean the way of the Cowboys to cause an upset, based on the fact that against Melbourne (a team they’ve both faced within 2 weeks), they were more competitive. Sure, the Broncos were without Hunt, but the Cowboys were also without Morgan and Tamou. With news floating around that Corey Parker may also be a late chance of withdrawing, momentum can easily be swung the way of the visitors. Invest around a tight contest and enjoy everything that this match has to offer.

Suggested Bet
Either team under 6.5 points @ $2.50