Finally, the wait is over for rugby league fans as the 2013 RLWC kicks off at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff. The opening game of the competition is a cracking contest between the host nation, England, and the tournament favourites, Australia. There is a lot riding on the outcome of this contest as the winner has the opportunity to move to the other side of the draw and avoid the Kiwis until the tournaments Final. Despite being favourites, many would argue that there is a lot more pressure on the shoulders of the hosts. They have not featured in a Final when the tournament has been played on their home soil and after the loss to Italy in a trial match that appears as though it could continue. They will be out to prove a point and there is no better test for them than playing against the Aussies. Many people believe that they will have everything their own way right up until the Final, where absolutely anything can happen. The class within their team is evident for everyone to see and they are going to be very difficult to break down. The Poms should be up for that challenge, but just as egger as the hosts will be, so too will the Kangaroos. After this match, we shall have a clearer picture of just how this competition is going to play out.
England
There appears to be a few problems within the England camp at the moment as Gareth Hock has been dropped from the squad altogether and James Graham is out of the team for this match. This has all centred on an apparent drinking session following their loss in the trial match to Italy. Trouble has never been far away from Hock throughout his career but stories like this continue to fuel the fact that their coach, Steve McNamara, isn’t popular within the playing group. Regardless, he will be there for the duration of the tournament and they must move past this and focus on the job at hand. In terms of naming a team for this match, McNamara has left his options open by naming a squad of 19 players. This does feature 3 of the Burgess brothers along with Gareth Widdop, who is likely to play 5/8 and Sam Tomkins who should play fullback. Aside from that, they will need a tough defensive side if they are to hold the Australians to a modest score line.
Australia
The only surprise within the Australian team lies on the bench as Daley Cherry-Evans was left out in favour of Robbie Farrah. This move is perhaps not as unexpected when you consider that Farrah was the captain under Kangaroos coach Tim Sheens at the Tigers. Otherwise, it is business as usual and the Kangaroos are going to aim to outmuscle their opponents in the middle and then allow their outside backs to dominate on the edges. It does help that they have two very smart halves steering them around the park and if they are given enough room, expect the likes of Inglis, Tate and Slater to see plenty of ball in attacking positions. Ultimately, it should be these players that become tough for the Poms to hold on the edges.
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = England $5.50 Australia $1.15
Centrebet = England $5.00 Australia $1.18
Sportsbet = England $4.95 Australia $1.18
Betfair = England $6.40 Australia $1.21
Verdict
All is not well in the English camp at the moment and I think that we could see the worst of it in this match. While the loss to Italy shouldn’t be focused on too much, the news that has broken since suggests that there is more to this story. The Australians have had a relatively uneventful build up heading into this tournament and despite their raging favouritism; they look as though they are ready to get things moving. Ultimately, they look the stronger team all over the park with England going to have a very difficult time trying to break them down. Had the match been played in England, I would lean towards a closer contest but the Aussies are ready for this match and are going to send a statement to the Poms that they are going to have to be on guard if they want to make it to the end of the tournament.
Suggested Bet
Australia 13+ @ $1.80
Narrow it down = Australia 13-18 @ $4.50 – There isn’t a lot of value on offer for the Aussies to win 13+ so if you want more, consider this option. A complete blowout in the opening match of the tournament would be surprising to see and a 14-point victory margin in favour of the Aussies seem about right, falling within this range and hopefully delivering a juicy profit.
Slippery Morris = Brett Morris FTS and/or LTS @ $8 – Morris struggled this season to find his way to the try line and majority of that can be put down to the players that were responsible for getting him the ball. Throw in the quality players that the Kangaroos have and his chances dramatically increase and it is more enticing given the price that is being offered. Sure, he is out of form but he will benefit from having Thurston and Cronk playing inside him.
Good luck!
Scooby
