It’s only early but February is off to a good start for The Big Dog. Yesterday’s 110-103 win by the Toronto Raptors made it 3-1 for 46.25% profit, with the only loss so far coming in overtime. Looking to ride that wave through a weekend of 20 games, we’re heading back for a look at the Player Performance market, as The Big Dog brings you his top three plays for Saturday.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards welcome the NBA’s worst team to town, looking to turn around their own poor record at home and get back into the race for a spot in the playoffs. To do that, the Wizards have to start by paying more attention to the opposition point guard. Washington have fallen four games adrift of Detroit for the number eight seed in the East, partly due to their inability to win at home (10-16) but also due to recently being unable to stop John Wall’s direct opponent. In the last ten games, every starting point guard for the opposition has scored at least 14 points, regardless of the result. Ish Smith is the latest man who will look to take advantage of that trend. The 76ers’ pocket rocket has averaged 16.9 points per game at Wells Fargo Center, since being traded from the New Orleans Pelicans in late December and averaged a season-high 15.5 per game in the month of January. The Wizards have allowed a minimum of 106 points in their last six games, going 1-5 in that stretch. Any player with Smith’s speed and willingness to get to the basket is going to relish playing against such a struggling defensive team. The Big Dog can see the little man going for 20-plus points, so overs at 15.5 is a definite yes.
Selection
Over 15.5 (Ish Smith Total Match Points) @ $1.87 (William Hill)
Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets might be in the middle of another horrible stretch of bad play… but that certainly hasn’t been the case for their centre and primary scorer, Brook Lopez. As the Nets try to snap another five-game losing streak, Lopez will look to extend a run of four games where he has scored at least 21 points and averaged 27.25. Although he will match up against possibly the best big man in the NBA (DeMarcus Cousins), which will make for a tough night. In the previous meeting, on November 13th, Lopez had 17 points and 10 rebounds but Cousins eclipsed that with 40 points and 13 boards, as the Kings won 111-109 at home. Lopez had a bad shooting night (5 of 15) but got to the free-throw line eight times. If he continues to be able to draw fouls, scoring into the twenties should be a breeze. He’s shooting almost 55-percent from the floor over the last ten games and just short of 60-percent in the last two. The Kings remain the league’s worst defensive team, allowing 108.1 points per game and haven’t leaked less than 112 points, over their last three road games. He may well end up with an inferior stat line to his direct opponent but Lopez is a very smart offensive player and he should have little trouble in leading the scoring for the home side.
Selection
Brook Lopez Over 21.0 (Player F Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers are now 5-2 under new coach Tyronn Lue but are looking to bounce back from an extremely poor second half effort, against the Charlotte Hornets. The new-look Cavs have found success in consciously increasing the involvement of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, in a much more fluid offensive structure. The most interesting change however, may be the impact to the contribution of their biggest star and former MVP, LeBron James. After not scoring more then 22 points in the last five games under coach David Blatt, Tyronn Lue’s new style of offense has seen him score 23 or more in five of seven games since the change, including three contributions of 25 or more. James is clearly happier and the Cavaliers look more dangerous overall. Another factor that will please “King James” is the uncertain status of Jae Crowder, who will have the job of guarding LeBron, should he be able to play through an ankle injury that caused him to miss this morning’s shootaround. If Crowder does play, he will likely be hampered in some way and if he doesn’t, the Celtics will have to defend him by committee. This could lead to a big night for LeBron and The Big Dog is happy to take the overs, even though Boston are a top ten defensive team, this season.
Selection
Over 24.5 (LeBron James Total Match Points) @ $1.87 (William Hill)
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