After a strong start, the game in Memphis didn’t produce enough points for each of the last three quarters and ultimately fell well short of overs. The Grizzlies, who have been poor this season at defending the three-point line, restricted the Bucks to 1 of 16 from beyond the arc and 36.7 percent shooting from the floor. While that result was disappointing, The Big Dog is ready to bounce back in a big way, with a focus on the Player Performance markets for a big return on a 9-game Saturday. Strap in for five big plays on a stacked start to the weekend.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Kyrie Irving has impressed since his return from a fractured patella, suffered in Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals. The star point guard has scored 20 or more points in six of eighteen games and shot 88 percent from the free-throw line. With that being said, this individual points line is too high. The Pistons are a respectable defensive unit, allowing exactly 100 points per game (10th in the NBA) and they have restricted visiting teams to less than 100 in 16 of 22 games at The Palace At Auburn Hills. For his part, Kyrie has scored more than 18 points only once in his last six appearances. In fact, there have been three specific scenarios where Irving have averaged more than 18 points. He averages 22.0 from two games in the second leg of a back-to-back, has scored 22 in his only appearance on a Tuesday and averaged 18.5 in two Thursday games. In every other scenario recorded by ESPN, his scoring averages out to 18.0 or less. This looks like a solid open play on a busy day.
Selection
Kyrie Irving Under 18.5 (Player B Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
James Harden ranks second in the entire NBA in terms of scoring, with 27.5 points per game and is currently doing his best to lift that even further. The Rockets’ chief scorer has contributed 30 or more points in three of the last five games, while hitting 44 of 45 from the foul line and looks primed to add to that tally, when he faces the Thunder. Harden has relished matching up against Oklahoma City, in recent times. In the last three series meetings, he’s averaged 36.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists and made 5.3 three-point shots. Except another big outing from “The Beard”.
Selection
James Harden Over 28.5 (Player A Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz
Jazz rising star Rodney Hood is significantly underrated for this game and it looks like the punters have already found him, with the price coming in, to be the shortest of today’s plays. Hood has scored 16 or more in four straight games and is averaging 18.4 in the month of January. Today he’s faced with a Timberwolves defence that ranks 22nd in the league and allows 103.6 points per game. Nothing more needs to be said here. This one is clearly The Big Dog’s “Play of the Day”. This line would have been forced lower due to the Jazz guard shooting 1 of 13 from the floor and scoring only six points, when losing 94-80 in Minnesota, on December 30th. Put simply, that won’t happen again.
Selection
Over 15.5 (Rodney Hood Total Match Points) @ $1.80 (William Hill)
Charlotte Hornets @ Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard is a star and has taken his game to the next level, on a Trail Blazers team that is actually over-achieving at 21-26. The NBA’s sixth-highest scorer is averaging 24.3 per game but has found himself in a bit of a recent lull, only contributing over 20 in one of his last five games. As a result, his average for the month of January is the lowest since the three games in October, at 23.7. The Charlotte Hornets are a reasonable defensive unit and will be welcoming Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back from a long-term injury. Although he will be short of breath after a long absence, MKD is the team’s best perimeter defender and will improve the team. Lillard is capable of exploding for 35 at any time but again, this line is very high and his recent big night came against inferior defence of the Lakers. Unders looks good here.
Selection
Damian Lillard Under 24.5 (Player D Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
The Big Dog closes the day with one of the more interesting finds in a while. JJ Redick has been one of the elite long-range shooters for the majority of his nine years in the NBA but is having the best year of his career, shooting an astonishing 48.5 percent from beyond the arc. That’s almost a five percent improvement on last season, which was the best year of his career, at the time. Redick is averaging 2.7 made three-pointers (also a career-high) and has actually appeared to benefit from the absence of star power forward, Blake Griffin. In Griffin’s absence, Redick has made three or more triples in 8 of 16 games, including a massive nine in the last game played at home. The Lakers are not a good defensive team, allowing 106.4 points per night and as a quality marksman, JJ Redick will get enough looks to make this play a near certainty.
Selection
JJ Redick Over 2.5 (Player A Total Made 3-Point Field Goals) @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)
