Yesterday’s loss was a tough lesson in the dangers of backing a struggling team that is playing a side that you believe is struggling more so. The Nets, without the recently-waived Joe Johnson, won in the West for just the second time all season and extended the league-high losing streak of the Phoenix Suns to 13 games. Putting that disappointment behind us and moving on, today is the beginning of a big weekend for The Big Dog and Saturday’s 8-game card has produced six plays that make the cut, from a variety of markets.
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers
Last time these two teams played, The Big Dog highlighted Sixers point guard Ish Smith as the man to watch, when his personal points line was at 15.5 and the call was overs. Smith covered that in the third quarter and finished the game with 22 points. So it only makes sense that, with Philly playing at home and his points line down to 13.5, the double-down is in play and overs will start a busy day. Adding to the likelihood of Smith having a big role in today’s game is the absence of live-wire backup, T.J. McConnell. The other quirky trend in the performance of Ish Smith, during the month of February is that his games have alternated over and under double-digit points production. His last performance produced just four points on 2 of 9 shooting. Look for him to be much more effective today.
Selection
Ish Smith Over 13.5 (Player F Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks
This is the most surprising market of the day. The New York Knicks have been installed as favourites for this clash with the Orlando Magic, in spite of losing 13 of their last 15 games and not winning at home since beating the pitiful Phoenix Suns, four weeks ago. The Orlando Magic have been a frustrating team to follow but they come into this game having won four of seven and being marginally better than the Knicks in terms of points scored, points allowed, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and rebounds, for the season. Both rosters are relatively healthy with the only possible out being Arron Afflalo for the home team. The Big Dog sees this market as being the opposite of what it should be and on that basis, the Magic are offering terrific value.
Selection
Orlando Magic @ $2.15 (Luxbet)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors
The Big Dog has one out of left field in what should be the most interesting overall game on today’s card. Raptors forward Luis Scola may be averaging 9.1 points a game for the season but his role in the rotation is slowly diminishing. He hasn’t logged more than 22 minutes in the month of February and is averaging 18.2, after playing 25.2 minutes per game in December. The reduction in minutes has meant that he hasn’t scored more than eight points in a game since January 30th and he’s scored less than seven points in six of nine games. A 6.5 points line is low but so it should be, for a guy shooting 33.3 percent and taking less than six shots a game, this month. Unders is a good play here.
Selection
Luis Scola Under 6.5 (Player H Total Points) @ $1.81 (Sportsbet)
Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks host the Bulls with Chicago again missing their entire first-choice starting back court. Having to deal with an in-form Jeff Teague, who survived some pretty loud speculation at the trade deadline, is probably the last thing they’re looking forward to. Likely to match-up against Aaron Brooks, Teague has lifted his scoring to 18.2 per game in February, from 15.1 on the season. He’s shooting 50 percent from the floor during his hot streak, which includes a five-point, 2-of-8 performance against the Bucks. In the last series meeting, won 113-90 by the Hawks in Chicago, Teague contributed 17 points on 7 of 16 shooting. The Big Dog will back a similar performance at home, in what should be another win for Atlanta.
Selection
Jeff Teague Over 16.5 (Player E Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
Nope… The Big Dog was wrong earlier… THIS is the most baffling market of the day, that has undoubtedly been influenced by a stunningly unpredictable last-start loss by the Clippers, to Denver. It also helps that the Kings recently managed to sweep a home-and-home set against those same Denver Nuggets. Breaking this down to some degree of common sense reasoning, the Clippers are 18-10 on the road (3rd best in the NBA), while the Kings have stumbled to 14-14 at home (22nd in the NBA). Los Angeles are winning this game and on that basis, it’s key that the Clippers’ last seven wins have come by six points or more. Sacramento also won the last meeting between these two teams 110-103, in a huge upset at Staples Center. Chris Paul and company will be keen to atone for that slip-up. Recent results have done a lot of punters a lot of favours, by providing this play. Not only is this today’s “Play of the Day”… but it might be the best play of the season so far.
Selection
Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
The Big Dog wraps up a packed Saturday by looking at a promising rookie that is doing some impressive things, as part of the three-ring circus that is the Kobe Bryant farewell tour and the Los Angeles Lakers. Julius Randle is slowly climbing the rankings in terms of rebounding, now sitting at 11th in the league with 10.1 per game. He’s taken glass-eating to the next level in February, averaging a beastly 12.3 boards, while also increasing his points and minutes. The seventh pick in the 2014 draft is coming off a double-double against the Grizzlies, in Memphis and would probably chose the play the current Grizzlies every day. With Marc Gasol out with a foot injury, Memphis don’t have the personnel to limit Randle’s impact on the glass. As a team, the Grizzlies rank 22nd in the league for rebounds and only have one fit player (Zach Randolph) who averages more than 5.2 boards a night. Randle’s average of 13.5 rebounds in the first two series games of the season shouldn’t be going south today.
Selection
Julius Randle Over 11.0 (Player B Total Rebounds) @ $1.77 (Sportsbet)
