A new month is here and The Big Dog is looking to build on what was a solid last three weeks of January. The overall landscape of the league is finally becoming a little clearer, as we approach the All-Star break and today’s two plays involve two of the most talented rosters in the Eastern Conference, that appear to be under-valued on the road.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers
Tyronn Lue may have inherited a successful team when David Blatt was unceremoniously shown the door… but the new-look, up-tempo offence of the Cavaliers has certainly got them looking like more than cannon fodder for whichever team comes out of the Western Conference Final. Today they travel to face a Central Division rival in the Indiana Pacers, who are looking for their third win in a row, after losing six of seven. Both teams will be looking to push the pace, a strategy that has been immediately successful for Lue’s Cavaliers and also has the previously half-court-oriented Pacers back in the race for a top four seed. Cleveland have won their last four contests by an average of 12.7 points, while scoring an average of 115 per game. Although only a small sample size, those numbers aren’t too far removed from what the Golden State Warriors have been doing through the first half of the season and on that basis, the points spread of 4.5 looks very skinny. With an honourable mention going to the option of the Cavs team total going over 107.5, The Big Dog is taking the higher dividend and going with the road team to cover. Especially considering they will be high on confidence, after a surprisingly easy 117-103 win over the San Antonio Spurs.
Selection
Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz
On the back of three double-digit wins from their last four games, the Utah Jazz have been installed as strong favourites to continue their push into the Western Conference 8th seed, when the inconsistent Chicago Bulls come to town. After struggling through a period where both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors missed multiple games, the Jazz have won their last two games by a combined 42 points, with them back in uniform. However, it must be said that even an out-of-form Bulls (26-20) probably pose a greater challenge than either of the Hornets (23-25) or Timberwolves (14-35). While Chicago clearly have issues that are keeping them from being a challenger for a top two seed in the East, they do boast recent road wins against the Cavaliers and Pistons, while their most recent losses have come against quality opposition, in the Warriors, Celtics, Heat and Clippers. All four of those teams have a significantly better season record than the Jazz. The Bulls also haven’t lost consecutive games on the road since losing to Milwaukee on January 12th and the only time this season where they have lost consecutive games against Western Conference opponents, the matches were three weeks apart (both against the Dallas Mavericks). The Big Dog is taking the value on offer for the road dog and backing the Bulls to bounce back to the winners column. Though they are an improving franchise, it’s still too hard to pick Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood over Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose.
Selection
Chicago Bulls @ $2.70 (Luxbet)
