Welcome to the preview of the final round of group matches for 2014. We’ve got some fantastic fixtures for us here as well with title hopefuls Germany taking on the USA as well as Portugal taking on Ghana in what too should be a great contest. If the last few days are anything to go by then we should be in for an rollercoaster night of football before we head into the last 16.
**Odds from betfair as at 25th June
USA ($10.5) versus Germany ($1.7), Draw ($3.1)
First up we have the USA taking on Germany with both sides currently on 4 points with a 3 point margin over Ghana and Portugal. There’s a number of scenario’s that could play out here but for Germany I’m sure that although they know a draw will still secure top place they’ll still look for a win to give them momentum if anything else. Avoiding defeat will also be important as they’ll want to ensure they get top spot for a more favourable last 16 draw likely to be against the winner of Algeria or Russia. The USA could still make it through if Portugal and Ghana draw or even if Portugal win it, it could just come down to goal difference in the end but they are in a better position at this stage. Either way it’s set for an exciting couple of games. The US have been pretty good at this World Cup after a first up win over Ghana but they were unlucky to cop a draw against Portugal when they conceded so late in the game. Germany were given a bit of a wakeup against Ghana when they led 1-0 to go a goal behind in the space of 9 minutes. With top spot up for grabs here I’m sure we’ll see the Germany we saw that dismantled Portugal 4-0 in the first game. There’s a lot to admire about the US side but Germany should be too strong as they push for that top spot.
Predicted score: Germany 3-1
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $2.04 (85%)
Next Best: Germany for the Half Time/Full time Double at $2.8
Anytime goal scorer: Muller to score at $2.36
Portugal ($2.26) versus Ghana ($3.2), Draw ($4)
Both sides will be desperate for a win here to give themselves the best chance of making it through to the last 16. Ghana have the stronger position with the better goal difference with Portugal needing to make up a gap of 4 goals. It’s certainly not beyond Portugal with Ronaldo up front but he hasn’t looked his usual self at this World Cup which suggests that niggling injury could be hampering his impact on games. Ghana will be confident after their draw with Germany despite giving up their lead in the second half. I suspect Ghana will be eager to pile on the pressure here as well knowing that Portugal were lucky to get away with a draw against the USA to leave them with a slim chance of qualification for the last 16. It’s a tough ask though and I can’t see Ghana getting belted here so at the very least we’ll see a draw or Ghana win. I like the look of this Ghana attack as well against a weakened Portugal defence that has been hit by some injuries. I’m sure Ronaldo will keep them in touch but I Ghana are in the box seat here for me.
Predicted score: Ghana 2-1
Best Bet: Double chance Ghana at $1.77 (80%)
Next Best: Both teams to score at $1.64
South Korea ($5.3) versus Belgium ($1.8), Draw ($3.9)
Whilst still mathematically possible for South Korea to push through it seems impossible that it would actually happen when they take on Belgium in their final game here. Belgium have slowly made their way through their group leaving it late till the last 10 minutes to secure wins over Algeria and Russia. Knowing they can get a draw here and remain in top spot, it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this one. One thing I think they need to really get going is a big win before the last 16 to really give them some added confidence as well as build some momentum. Lukaku has been a disappointment thus far having been substituted early in the second half of both games so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start from the bench with the exciting young Origi getting a start. For South Korea they really have nothing to lose so Belgium will have to expect them to come out strong early. Given they haven’t conceded from open play though, I’m not sure if South Korea will have the firepower to get past Kompany and co. I’d like to see a massive win here from Belgium to announce themselves at this World Cup but I think we may have to settle for a more settled affair but a win all the same for Belgium.
Predicted score: Belgium 2-0
Best Bet: Belgium to win at $1.8 (80%)
Next Best: Belgium for the Half Time/Full Time Double at $2.92 to buck the trend and score in the first half.
Algeria ($3.75) versus Russia ($2.12), Draw ($3.7)
Algeria have been a little bit of a surprise packet this World Cup. They played fairly well against Belgium and then came out with a bang against South Korea to knock in 4 goals. They face Russia who have failed to impress for the most part, although they did almost hold on against Belgium for a draw. I think the key here is that Algeria have the advantage sitting on 3 points and needing just a draw to progress with Belgium likely to beat South Korea. Russia have been a bit lacking in front of goal so far with just the solitary goal from Kerzhakov and I can see Algeria playing a defensive counter attacking style to frustrate them here. So we may end up with a defence minded Algeria looking for the counter. As a result I think we may see a dull first half likely to see no goals with the game to open up a little more in the second as Russia push for a winner. Russia after all have far less to lose than Algeria. As always in these sorts of games, that first goal is absolutely crucial but it can leave you vulnerable as the other side becomes more desperate to get back into the game. We could be in for another Greece v Ivory Coast style finish.
Predicted score: Draw 1-1
Best Bet: Algeria Double Chance at $1.83 (70%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.86
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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