Well the World Cup final is finally here and what an incredible journey we’ve had over the past 4 weeks to get to this point. There’s been some fantastic performances from teams that were not expected to do so well, in particular Costa Rica whilst there should be honourable mentions to Algeria and in some respects Greece. We’ve still got two games to go though with Brazil looking to restore some credibility against the Netherlands in the 3rd place playoff after their horror 7-1 loss to Germany, and then the big one with Germany taking on Argentina in the final.
**Odds from betfair as at 12th July
3rd Place Playoff
Brazil ($2.2) versus Netherlands ($3.4), Draw ($3.9)
Brazil take on the Netherlands here in the 3rd place playoff and will be eager to restore some pride amongst the team and repay their fans for the implosion they suffered in their 7-1 defeat against Germany earlier in the week. It was an absolutely horrid performance from Brazil to concede 4 goals in the space of 6 minutes and to end up 5-0 down at half time. I don’t think anyone would have expected such a score line and perhaps the impact the loss of Neymar of Thiago Silva would have. They’ll no doubt be still pretty down about their performance but I think they’ll be pretty determined to get something out of this one in the end after that poor showing against Germany. Meanwhile the Netherlands will be down after that penalty shootout loss to Argentina after a scoreless draw in normal time and extra time. It was a game that felt like they were focused more on closing down Argentina and Messi than trying to take the game on in their front third.
Whilst I’m sure the Dutch will want to win here, I’m not sure if they’ll be as motivated as the host nation to get a win. We could also see some rotations amongst the teams with fringe players coming in for those that are regulars. Brazil will no doubt make some changes with Silva likely to slot back in defence and I’m sure there’ll be changes up front as well with Fred a chance to make way. For the Dutch there could be a couple changes as well with some of the younger players perhaps getting a chance, in particular Joel Veltman who could take Vlaar’s place in defence due to an injury doubt.
I’m expecting an open game here but I can see Brazil being far more determined to win than their opponents. The Dutch will no doubt play to win here but I don’t think their determination to win will be as great as Brazil’s given this is really a nothing game for them but it will mean a little more for Brazil.
Predicted score (Normal time): Brazil 2-1
Best Bet (Normal time): Both teams to score – Yes at $1.57 (80%)
Next Best: Over 2.5 goals at $1.65
World Cup Final
Germany ($2.34) versus Argentina ($3.7), Draw ($3.25)
The big one is finally here and what a contest this should be with Germany taking on Argentina in a repeat of the 1990 World Cup Final where West Germany beat Argentina 1-0. Argentina have been getting the job done without a dominating performance at this World Cup and for me I’ve been most impressed with them defensively. I didn’t expect Argentina to be as strong in defence as they have been but 4 clean sheets from 6 games shows how well they have done. The one area where they shouldn’t have been lacking is in attack. They’ve got one of the best attacks in football but it hasn’t seem to have clicked thus far but they have one last game to turn that around. Germany on the other hand have had two big wins from their 6 games against Portugal 4-0 and Brazil 7-1 to show when they are on, they’re on. They don’t always pile on scoreboard pressure but when they are switched on they are perhaps the best team in the world right now.
Germany will no doubt have plenty of confidence in this one against Argentina especially after their 7-1 demolition of Brazil, but they won’t be getting too far ahead of themselves. They will though have an advantage over Argentina here having played a day earlier whilst not having to go through extra time and penalties in what could take its toll on Argentina towards the end of the game here. Germany have no major injury concerns here either whilst Argentina will be hoping Di Maria can regain fitness to take his place after missing the Netherlands match. I think he’ll be a crucial component to their chances against Germany here too with his pace from out wide and threat on goal to provide a different avenue from Messi and Higuain. Another player Argentina would be hoping can take his place is Aguero but given his lack of playing time and match fitness he could be used as an impact sub here.
This will be a tight contest that could well go into extra time as both sides will be conscious defensively throughout. I feel like there will be more pressure on Argentina here and in particular Messi. He’s handled it well so far and there’s no doubt he can win this off his own boot but I’m not sure if he’ll get the support needed with Germany looking the stronger and more clinical of the two.
Predicted score (Into Extra Time): Germany 2-1
Best Bet (Normal time): Under 2.5 goals at $1.58 (75%)
Next Best: Half time Draw at $2.02
Value Bet: Germany to win by 1 goal at $4.3
Goal scorer options: Hummels an outside shot to score first at $34, Muller to score anytime at $3.1 as he chases the golden boot.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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