Welcome to the week 5 preview of the EPL as we start to see some of the themes and trends emerge as the season gathers pace. So as a means of reflection for the season so far, here are a few of my thoughts:
Biggest surprise so far – Cardiff beating Manchester City. Incredible display from the promoted side and if they can trouble a couple more big sides, they are well on their way to survival
Not so surprising – seeing Di Canio frustrated, though I must say it’s just as entertaining as seeing him sliding along the touchline.
Most impressive side so far – It’s a tough one. Apart from Cardiff, for me it’d be between Stoke and Liverpool with Stoke just pipping Liverpool for that fact that I didn’t expect anything of them this season under Hughes. A narrow loss to Liverpool which they could have drawn, wins over Crystal Palace (having gone behind) and West Ham, and then a 0-0 draw with Man City is an impressive start.
Best Bets
Newcastle to win against Hull at $1.81
Norwich and Villa to both score at $1.72
Value Bet
Everton to beat West Ham at $2.4
Betting odds from Betfair as at 21/09/2013
Norwich ($2.5) Vs Aston Villa ($3.15), Draw ($3.45)
Norwich hosts Aston Villa this week and will be hoping to put in a much stronger performance at home than what they put in against Spurs last week. Likewise, Villa will be looking to bounce back from a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle at home which gave them their 3rd straight loss and they can’t afford to suffer another loss after such a bright start to the season. The positive for Villa is that Benteke continues to get on the goal scoring list with his 4th goal of the season coming against Newcastle last week.
Norwich has the edge here given it’s their home game and they are generally a much better side when playing at home but they shouldn’t rely on this alone. It seems as though they are still working themselves out a little with their new signings, but they’ll get better in the coming weeks. Not that they should be thinking ahead, but Villa will be aware they have a much tougher fixture in Manchester City to follow so this is a pretty important match for them to take some points from to stabilise their start to the season. Villa also have a very good recent record in their past 5 at Norwich resulting in 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss. Regardless of that record, I feel that Norwich will bounce back enough at home to hold Villa to a draw in a tight contest. Both teams should score here.
Predicted result: draw 1-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.72
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
Liverpool ($1.61) Vs Southampton ($6.8), Draw ($4.2)
The undefeated Liverpool take on Southampton at home this week after suffering a small stumble against a Swansea side who impressed in the second half. Southampton were perhaps a little unlucky to not snatch a win in a tight home contest against West Ham, but no one can deny that Jaaskelainen’s performance in-between the sticks to deny the Saint’s was just incredible.
Liverpool will be without Coutinho until the end of October after he suffered a shoulder injury and his loss is a big one for their next few games until Suarez is eligible to play again. You could tell after he left the pitch against Swansea that they lost their creative spark behind Sturridge. Whilst Moses and Sterling did their best to pick up the creative slack, it wasn’t enough to break down a resurgent Swansea. Despite this, I think Liverpool will have enough to get the win at home with Sturridge continuing his red hot form.
Predicted result: Liverpool 1-0
Best bet: Liverpool to win at $1.61
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Newcastle ($1.81) Vs Hull ($5.4), Draw ($3.7)
It was a fantastic win for Newcastle away at Villa last week with Ben Arfa unlucky to not finish the game with a hat-trick. With 2 wins on the trot against Fulham and Villa, Newcastle have certainly turned around their poor start to the season against Man City and will have their sights firmly set on another win here at home. Hull meanwhile will have been disappointed to not have gotten away with a win at home to Cardiff last week but should be happy with their 4th point of the season.
Hull will have no fear heading into this match, much like they did against Manchester City when they controlled the game from the outset even though they ended losing 2-0. Newcastle seem to have been rejuvenated a little with plenty of pace up front and on the wings now with Ben Arfa back in form whilst Remy also troubled the Villa defence last week. Pretty good value on Newcastle here to get another 3 points.
Predicted result: Newcastle 2-1
Best bet: Newcastle great value for the win at $1.81
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
West Brom ($2.04) Vs Sunderland ($4.2), Draw ($3.55)
There is no doubt both teams are struggling here as a winless West Brom prepare to host a winless Sunderland after 4 games. The Baggie’s are lacking in creativity whilst Sunderland are not gelling as quickly as Di Canio would like. West Brom broke through for their first goal of the season in the 90th minute last week against Fulham which should relieve some of the tension that may have been building up about their inability to score in the first 3 games. For me, they have been lacking in a creative spark up front to support their strikers but with Sessegnon now eligible to play having been granted a work permit, it could be the tonic they need to be more dangerous up front.
Recent history between these two sides suggest there will be goals in this one with 22 goals scored in the past 5 meetings between these two. I’m not convinced that this will be another high scoring game, but there’s enough to suggest that both teams should score. West Brom will take confidence out of their first goal of the season late last week as well as their mental edge over Sunderland having won 4 of the last 5. For Sunderland, they’ve done enough over recent weeks to suggest they’ll be a threat in attack having scored in their past 3, whilst the imminent return of Giaccherini from injury will provide a boost to their attack. Expecting a close game with the majority of the fireworks to be provided by Di Canio.
Predicted result: draw 1-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.86
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
West Ham ($3.45) Vs Everton ($2.4), Draw ($3.35)
Another tough fixture here with the Hammer’s playing host to an Everton side that beat Chelsea 1-0 last week to give Martinez his first victory as Everton manager. There were some really good signs in that game as well and I was most impressed by loan signing Gareth Barry from Man City, he was involved in everything and even saved the game when Eto’o looked destined to score with an open goal. There was always a slight question mark over how Everton would cope without Fellaini, but with Barry and young McCarthy, they look just as strong with a bit more depth. Their opposition this weekend in West Ham have a major issue up front. Andy Carroll is still injured and they haven’t scored a goal in their past 3 games. The positive though is that they have only conceded once this season so it will be a stern test for Everton to break through. Perhaps the perfect time to let Lukaku loose?
With a lack of depth in the striking department and the injuries starting to mount up with Cole, Downing, Diarra, and Carroll all injured, West Ham will have to be at their best this weekend. Upton Park is often a tough place to travel, but Everton have an incredibly strong record over West Ham both home and away. The past 10 premier league meetings between these two has seen Everton come away with 6 wins with the remaining 4 resulting in draws. Even more interestingly, 4 of these wins have come at Upton Park, so it’s clear Everton hold no fear of travelling there. Whilst I feel Everton have enough going for them to get the 3 points, it won’t be a walk in the park and they’ll have to push hard to break this defence down for a narrow win.
Predicted result: Everton 1-0
Best bet: Everton look pretty good value to get a win here at $2.4
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Chelsea ($1.31) Vs Fulham ($13.5), Draw ($6)
It’s not the biggest London derby, but it’s a derby after all as Chelsea host fellow Londoner’s in Fulham. Chelsea were stunned during the week in their Champion’s league fixture against Basel, who I think are an underrated side and perhaps it was just a case of Chelsea not showing enough respect to their opponents on home soil. I doubt they’ll do the same against a Fulham side who were unlucky to not sneak away with a win at home against West Brom last week thanks to a 90th minute goal. My only other concern about Chelsea is it seems they have too much attacking midfield depth for Mourinho rotate the squad effectively early in the season though there is no doubting they’ll need this depth as the season goes on.
Chelsea have a good record at home over Fulham winning 3 and drawing 2 of their last 5 and they should have enough motivation this week to bounce back for a win. It will be interesting to see if Mourinho gives Eto’o another start after two relatively poor performances against Everton and Basel and it may well be worth reverting back to a Ba or Torres to lead the line. Fulham could be boosted with Berbatov playing a part after coming off injured against West Brom and they’ll certainly need him if they are to have a chance here. Chelsea should be too strong though in the end at home and in desperate need of a win to maintain pace with the likes of Man City and Man United.
Predicted result: Chelsea 2-0
Best bet: Chelsea Half/full time at $1.89
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Arsenal ($1.37) Vs Stoke ($10.5), Draw ($5.5)
Both these sides are flying, relative to their stature within the league of course, and this should be a pretty interesting match. Arsenal are on a 3 game winning streak whilst Stoke are undefeated in their last 3 with 2 wins and a draw which gives them a good start to the season under Mark Hughes. With the likes of Giroud and Ramsey in excellent form and the addition of Ozil who made a seamless transition into his new side last week, it’s going to be a very tough ask for Stoke this week.
Arsenal have won their past 11 matches at home to Stoke in all competitions and I doubt that this trend will change this weekend. I’ve been impressed by Stoke under Hughes so far as they’ve managed to change their game style to more of a passing one whilst maintaining their strength in a solid defence. With Ramsey in the best form of his career having now scored 6 goals in 7 games in all comps this season coupled with Giroud who has 4 in all 4 premier league games, Stoke have their work cut out to stop Arsenal’s attacking threats. Add in Ozil who is adept at making those key defence splitting passes and it’s hard to see anything but an Arsenal win. It might not be a high scoring affair, but the Gunner’s should control the majority of the game here.
Predicted result: Arsenal 1-0
Best bet: Good value on Arsenal for a half time/full time at $2.06 given they have scored first in all 4 of their premier league games for 3 wins.
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
Crystal Palace ($3.4) Vs Swansea ($2.36), Draw ($3.45)
Swansea will be heading into this one pretty confident after their Europa League triumph over Valencia away during the week. It was an impressive start to their campaign to notch a win over a strong side in Valencia and with no disrespect to Swansea as they did play brilliantly, it’s hard to fully judge their credentials against a side that deservedly lost a key defender on 10 minutes. Regardless, it will give them a boost no doubt as they travel to London to play a Crystal Palace side that have quite a few injury concerns early this season. They will also be without Dikgacoi after he was sent off against Manchester United last week.
Whilst I’ve said before I’m not a big believer in fatigue this early in the season, Swansea may be a slightly different proposition. Whilst they have a quality first XI, they don’t have a huge amount of depth so it will be interesting to see how Laudrup manages his players having played Monday against Liverpool, Thursday against Valencia and now Sunday away to Crystal Palace. These leaves a slight question mark for me as to how they’ll play and how fresh some of the players will be. Crystal Palace will be up for this one and they’ll know they have a good chance to nab a point at home here.
Predicted result: draw 1-1
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.84
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Cardiff ($4.7) Vs Tottenham ($1.93), Draw ($3.6)
Cardiff host another big club in Tottenham having already taken points off Manchester City and Everton at home and will no doubt have plenty of confidence to do the same here. Undefeated in their last 3 games, Cardiff will look to continue that streak whilst Spurs will be looking to get their 4th win of the season. Having soundly beaten Norwich 2-0 last week, Tottenham would have been more satisfied with the performance of Christian Eriksen who could turn out to be one of the best buys of the transfer market. Having set up Sigurdsson for his first goal, he also played a role in setting up the second whilst his passing and creativity throughout the game was just what they have missed since Modric left to Real Madrid.
Cardiff will be a tough test at home and Tottenham will have to bring their very best to get the 3 points here. Tottenham will also have in the back of their mind their 3rd game in 6 days will come on Tuesday when they play Villa in the league cup having also played Thursday for their Europa league match. I doubt this will be a fitness or fatigue concern as they have quite a deep squad in midfield now but there are a couple of injury concerns with Dembele and Rose getting knocks in their Europa league fixture. Cardiff have an injury concern of their own with Bellamy set to miss which would be a bit of a blow to their chances. If Eriksen plays like he did last week against Norwich as well as having scored a quality goal in their Europa league tie, they should get the points here.
Predicted result: Tottenham 2-0
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.93 is good value given Tottenham have been defensively solid conceding only the one goal this season.
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
Manchester City ($2.24) Vs Manchester United ($3.75), Draw ($3.45)
The big game of the week comes on Sunday as fierce rivals Manchester City host Manchester United. Both sides have been solid so far this season without being overly impressive and given that both sides will be desperate for a win I can’t see this being a lacklustre affair in the same fashion as the Manchester United versus Chelsea fixture. A win here for either side could really kick their season in to gear and given their rivalry there should be plenty of action. Importantly both sides managed to get their Champion’s league campaigns off to a winning start but perhaps it will be of greater benefit to Man City given their poor recent times in Champions League football. Another key for City here was the return of Kompany from injury during the week as he is the rock of their defence and has been clearly missed in these early stages of the season. He could be the difference this week.
The spoils have been shared in the past 6 meetings in all competitions between these two with 3 wins a piece and I doubt that either manager will be playing for a draw here. They won’t want to drop points to one another of course, but a win is more important for both sides to keep in touch with the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool at the top of the table who all have winnable games this week. I think with the return of Kompany to their defensive line-up, City will be a much different proposition defensively than in recent weeks and whilst Man United are not out of it I think City have enough to notch a win here at home in a tight encounter.
Predicted result: Manchester City 2-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.69. Surely we’ll see an RVP goal if City go ahead.
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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