Welcome to the week 4 preview of all the English Premier League action which returns after an International break and the first round of football since the closing of the summer transfer window. There’s plenty to look forward to this weekend with a number of new faces sure to grace the Premier League for the first time whilst we’ll also be treated with some intrigue with new faces on loan at new clubs. A couple of players I’ll have a key interest in to see how they go will be Ozil for Arsenal, Lamela for Tottenham, and the potential for Fellaini to line up for Manchester United. It’s certainly an exciting time for the Premier League and although the league didn’t recruit a big name in the form of a Cavani or Falcao, there is plenty of young and exciting talent that’ll have a few scripts of their own to write starting this weekend.

Best Bets this week

• Everton/Chelsea – Over 2.5 goals at $2.12 – 4 of the last 5 matches between these two in all comps have been over 2.5 goals
• Swansea/Liverpool – Liverpool good value to win at $2.24 with Swansea also facing Valencia 3 days later in their Europa league match.

Betting odds from Betfair as at 13/09/2013

Manchester United ($1.23) Vs Crystal Palace ($17.5), Draw ($7.4)

Manchester United and Moyes will be looking to put a disappointing transfer window behind them when they take on Crystal Palace at home this weekend. With the only notable addition to the squad of Fellaini in the summer transfer window, there is a bit of a sense of disappointment among the fans that more big names were not brought in. Perhaps it’s a matter of the Moyes needing to prove himself with the squad already in place before he is backed with more transfer funds. In any case, the addition of Fellaini, albeit for an inflated price, is a good one to an already strong squad. Whilst Crystal Palace didn’t bring in any big names themselves, they did add Cameron Jerome from Stoke who will be a decent addition to their front line.

Along with their fellow promotes, Crystal Palace has been very impressive in these early stages of the season with narrow losses to Spurs and Stoke before breaking through for their first win against Sunderland two weeks ago. Manchester United meanwhile have had an up and down start with a win, draw and a loss which is not the start they would have been looking for but they have had tough opposition in Liverpool and Chelsea their past two games. Palace will be pumped up to play at Old Trafford and will be lively early but it’s very hard to see them getting anything more than some pride for putting in a good performance.

Predicted result: Manchester United 2-0
Best bet: Manchester United half/full time at $1.65
Best Bet Confidence: 70%

Aston Villa ($2.18) Vs Newcastle ($3.9), Draw ($3.45)

Aston Villa are a young, exciting and up and coming side and I for one am really excited to see them play again this weekend. After stunning Arsenal on the opening day to win 3-1, they’ve somewhat faltered with two losses, though we must consider the opponents in Chelsea and a Liverpool side in strong form. Their opponents in Newcastle had a poor start to the season with an incredibly poor result at Man City followed but have since bounced back with a draw to West Ham and a win over Fulham. Importantly they’ve also managed to keep hold of Cabaye who is the key to their creativeness in midfield and who has been missed. Whether he’s done enough fitness wise to get back into the line-up this week is another question that we’ll only know the answer to closer to kick off.

Whilst I’ve liked the way Newcastle have restored some faith among the fans with 4 points, I also think Villa will be just slightly too strong at home here. Newcastle will be hopeful of a repeat of last season’s 2-1 win at Villa in January, but this is a much improved Villa side this year. There’s also a young striker named Benteke who’ll be looking for goals this weekend to ensure he’s the main man heading into World Cup calculations for Belgium.

Predicted result: Aston Villa 2-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.73
Best Bet Confidence: 75%

Fulham ($2.2) Vs West Brom ($3.75), Draw ($3.5)

Fulham host a struggling West Brom this weekend who are languishing at the bottom of the table in these early stages of the season. Whilst Fulham haven’t made a huge statement early this season, they have brought in some good talent which puts them in good stead for the remainder of the year. Their opponents this weekend also did some good business in the late stages of the transfer window, bringing in Sessegnon from Sunderland, Anichebe from Everton and Amalfitano from Marseille. Whilst not major names, Sessegnon will certainly add some creativity and frepower moving forward whilst Anichebe is good cover in the striking department.

Fulham didn’t have the best home record last season with stats of 7 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. They do however have a strong record over West Brom at home being undefeated to the Baggie’s in their past 9. With Fulham having more time to settle their new recruits such as Bent and Parker, they should be able to get back on the winner’s list this weekend with a win at home. West Brom will come good soon enough, but the loss of Foster to injury is a big blow whilst they are also lacking up front with no goals yet this season in their two losses and a draw.

Predicted result: Fulham 2-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.76
Best Bet Confidence: 75%

Hull ($2.5) Vs Cardiff ($3.25), Draw ($3.35)

This is one of the more interesting matchups this weekend with Hull taking on fellow promotes Cardiff in a game where both sides would have pencilled this in as a winnable game at the start of the year. The last time these two met it ended in a 2-2 draw which saw Hull promoted along with Cardiff. Hull are coming off a loss to Manchester City where they really deserved a point at minimum having almost scored a few times early in the match which really put Man City on the back foot. Their passing and intensity in their build-up was fantastic to watch against a top side. Meanwhile, Cardiff are coming off a win over Man City and a solid draw against Everton at home and are in good shape heading into this one.

Cardiff are arguably the more attractive proposition on paper and have been very impressive, but Hull have been just as good in these early stages. I can’t see a clear and dominant winner here and I’m expecting a pretty close affair. Hull will keep themselves in the game largely due to Huddlestone pulling the strings in the middle and that’s how they’ll create chances but with both sides hungry for points this will likely finish in a draw.

Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.94
Best Bet Confidence: 85%

Tottenham ($1.47) Vs Norwich ($8.6), Draw ($4.7)

Tottenham host Norwich this weekend in their second home game of the season and will be looking to recover from their away loss to bitter rivals Arsenal.  Much has been made of their inability to yet score from open play with their two goals coming from Soldado to secure their 2 wins so far. The goals will come as the new players gel, and with the likes of Eriksen, Lamela, and Soldado, there’s no reason why this side can’t score. Their opponents this weekend will be a stronger side throughout this season than last having strengthened up front and in the middle of the park. Coming off a 1-0 home win over Southampton will also put them in good stead heading to White Hart Lane.

Interestingly, Norwich have a very good recent record at White Hart Lane with 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss in their last 5 visits there. Last season these sides played out two draws which could have both been Norwich wins if not for a debut goal for Dembele in their first meeting and a wonder run goal from Bale in their second meeting. Both sides have plenty of new faces this year and whilst Tottenham have lost their main man in Bale, they do look like they have moved on and with the move now official this could be a breakout game and statement of intent for Spurs. Norwich won’t be a pushover, but expect Spurs to nab the win here.

Predicted result: Tottenham 2-0
Best bet: Tottenham to win at $1.47
Best Bet Confidence: 75%

Stoke ($6.2) Vs Manchester City ($1.69), Draw ($4)

With both sides heading into this one with 2 wins and a loss, it’s perhaps a more intriguing matchup than I would have first thought when looking at the fixtures before the season. Having earmarked Stoke to be relegated this year as an early season prediction, I for one have been pleasantly surprised by their early performances. They still could struggle throughout the season, but the early signs are good under the maligned management of Mark Hughes. Stoke have also added Stephen Ireland on loan from Villa and I think he’ll have an important role to play this season as they transfer their style of play to a more direct passing one.

Manchester City still have a few issues at the back with Kompany to miss again with injury, whilst new signing Demichelis is also out with injury leaving City to rely on Lescott and Nastasic at the back. Whilst they got the win 2-0 over Hull in their last game, it was far from convincing. They lacked attacking flair and creativity in their build-up against Hull and they looked shaky at the back, although that was perhaps understandable with Nastasic returning for his first game of the year. In saying that, I think they were surprised by Hull’s impressive play which put them on the back foot and it must be remembered it wasn’t long ago that they demolished Newcastle in their opening game where they looked irresistible. With the likelihood that Negredo will start ahead of Dzeko this week, I think Man City will have a little bit of a boost to push them over the line against a Stubborn Stoke who have not lost to Manchester City at home in their past 5 (4 draws and a win).

Predicted result: Manchester City 1-0
Best bet: Manchester City to win at $1.69
Best Bet Confidence: 75%

Sunderland ($6.2) Vs Arsenal ($1.68), Draw ($3.95)

Well what else can one say about Sunderland in these early stages after 2 losses and a draw. A myriad of new faces have joined this dressing room in a short space of time and I can’t see them gelling too quickly under Di Canio. He was somewhat the saviour late last season, but he’s certainly looking like being one of the next managers pushed out if his side doesn’t start to perform. What makes it even more difficult for them this weekend is that they are facing an Arsenal side who are pumped after a win over bitter rivals Tottenham as well as welcoming record signing Mesut Ozil from Real Madrid. Whilst I tend to agree with much said in the media that Ozil is perhaps not the signing Arsenal needed and that they should have strengthened up top in support of Giroud, but there is no doubting his quality and the affect he’ll have on the dressing room. He’ll also no doubt provide a large number of chances for Giroud to finish.

Both sides will have a few injury concerns this weekend and with the Gunner’s to be without Rosicky, it leads me to believe that Ozil will likely get a start. Sunderland will be without O’Shea after his red card last time out against Crystal Palace which will be a defensive blow to their chances here. It should be a regulation win here against a somewhat hapless Sunderland side that still needs time with their new players.

Predicted result: Arsenal 2-0
Best bet: Arsenal to win at $1.68 whilst the Arsenal half/full time at $2.66 looks really good value here
Best Bet Confidence: 80%

Everton ($3.45) Vs Chelsea ($2.36), Draw ($3.4)

There’s plenty of interest in this game with a number of new faces for both sides likely to make an appearance. The main one we’re all waiting to see will be Eto’o, though we’re likely to have to wait and see him make a substitute appearance. Everton did some tidy business on deadline day with the signing of James McCarthy as well as the loaning of Barry from Manchester City. Lukaku was perhaps their biggest and more exciting signing on loan and it’s unfortunate we won’t be able to see him play for them this weekend given it’s against his parent club.

With 3 draws to start their season, Everton will be desperate for a win but may find it tough against Chelsea. The loss of Fellaini, despite the recruitments of McCarthy and Barry, is a big one as he not only provided a midfield presence but also goals which is invaluable for any midfielder. Whilst Everton won’t be easy to break down at home, I feel Chelsea have all the tools to do so with a multitude of attacking options at Mourinho’s disposal enough to get them over the line.

Predicted result: Chelsea 2-1
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at $2.12 – 4 of the last 5 matches between these two in all comps have been over 2.5 goals
Best Bet Confidence: 85%

Southampton ($1.88) Vs West Ham ($4.9), Draw ($3.7)

The Saint’s take on West Ham at home this week with a win within their sights. The Hammers are coming off a loss at home to Stoke and have troubles in the striking department. With Andy Carroll still struggling with injury they resorted to signing Mladen Petric until the end of the season as striking cover – A solid option but not enough. Southampton meanwhile have a pretty settled side and their new faces have had a decent amount of time to now settle into their new surroundings. I’m not yet convinced about the Osvaldo/Lambert partnership up top, but there’s no doubting their individual quality that they bring to this side.

With the likes of Joe Cole and Downing adding to the already missing Carroll this weekend, there is plenty for big Sam to mull over when he selects his starting line-up. Southampton are also one of those sides that plays well at home and this bodes well with their last 5 at home to West Ham resulting in 2 wins, 2 draws, and a loss. Whilst we shouldn’t underestimate West Ham too much, Southampton has a bit too much stability across their side to lose this one at home.

Predicted result: Southampton 1-0
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at $1.87
Best Bet Confidence: 80%

Swansea ($3.6) Vs Liverpool ($2.24), Draw ($3.55)

The final game of week 4 sees Swansea hosting a Liverpool side in red hot form with 3 wins on the trot. Liverpool also made some important signings on deadline day with Sakho from PSG the most impressive. A strong central defender, he’s likely to build a strong partnership with Agger as the season goes on. It also creates plenty of competition with 5 quality centre halves in Agger, Sakho, Skertl, Toure, and Illori for a side that has yet to concede this season – good times ahead it seems for Liverpool. Could this also be the first time Liverpool record 4 consecutive wins to open a Premier League season? Chances are looking good at this stage.

This should be another low scoring game with both sides somewhat nullifying each other with their passing/possession game, though Liverpool should create more chances with their numerous attacking options off the flanks. Many of us would have thought the absence of Suarez would have hamstrung this Liverpool side. If anything, it’s given them a new lease of life and especially to that of Sturridge. Whilst Sturridge is under a slight injury cloud having pulled out of the National side he should be right to go this weekend. Look for another Liverpool win here in a tight one.

Predicted result: Liverpool 1-0
Best bet: Good value on Liverpool to win here at $2.24 especially with Swansea likely to face distractions of their Europa league tie against Valencia 3 days later.
Best Bet Confidence: 80%

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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