Welcome to the week 1 preview for the 2013/14 English Premier League season. It has felt like an eternity waiting for the new season to start with all the rumours and rumblings in the transfer market making it all the more difficult to wait for kick off on day 1. Now that the season is finally here we can get down to business and watch some football where the results matter. So without rumbling on too much, let’s get straight into it and look at the games on offer in week 1.
Best Bet of the week: Norwich Vs Everton – Both teams to score at $1.80 – their last 5 meetings both sides have scored.
Liverpool ($1.44) Vs Stoke ($10), Draw ($4.8)
The first game of the season sees a young and exciting Liverpool side host a Stoke side under the new management of Mark Hughes. Whilst Liverpool has made a number of new additions to their squad that should create some defensive worries for Stoke, they will of course be without their biggest player in Suarez who still needs to serve 6 more matches in his 10 game suspension. Suarez’s absence needn’t be a worry though as Liverpool showed in their last 4 matches of 2012/13 where they won 3 and drew 1, one of which was a 6-0 thumping of Newcastle.
This will be a tough test for Stoke where they haven’t won in their past 7 attempts at Anfield. There is also the uncertainty of how this team will develop and adapt to new tactics under Mark Hughes. I can see Stoke frustrating Liverpool early here (especially given their last 4 preseason games they haven’t conceded a goal), but there is a bit too much attacking flair in the likes of Coutinho and Aspas that will make it tough for Stoke to defend for the full 90 minutes.
Predicted result: Liverpool 1-0
Best bet: Liverpool to win at $1.44
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
Arsenal ($1.42) Vs Aston Villa ($9.2), Draw ($5.2)
A rejuvenated Aston Villa will play their first game of the season away to Arsenal in what is looking like an interesting match. Whilst the Gunner’s, frustratingly for their fans, haven’t brought in a big name thus far, they at least don’t need time to gel together. For Villa, they will be buoyed by their star striker Benteke deciding to stay when he looked almost out the door and on his way to side higher up the table. They’ll also benefit as a young side playing together through a tough season last year and as a result will be much more competitive this season.
Villa haven’t beaten Arsenal since May 2011 and in fact have only beaten Arsenal twice in their last 29 matches in all competitions. Looking at their pre-season form, both sides have had positive results with each notching 4 wins from 6 games. Arsenal had a strong result over Manchester City 3-1 whilst Villa had a 3-2 win over Malaga thanks to a brace from Benteke. With Arsenal to face Fenerbahce in their first Champion’s league play off in Turkey next Thursday, it’ll be interesting to see if Wenger chooses a weaker line-up to face Villa here. Regardless of the side he picks, this should be a closer result than most might expect.
Predicted result: Arsenal 2-1
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.62
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
Norwich ($3.25) Vs Everton ($2.46), Draw ($3.4)
A strengthened Norwich side play host to Everton in their opening fixture this weekend. There are two things I’m most interested to see with the first to see how Everton’s playing style will evolve under Martinez and the second to see Norwich’s new firepower on display. The signings of Gary Hooper and Van Wolfswinkel are excellent for a side of Norwich’s stature and will go a long way to giving them more scoring options up front than that of the departed Grant Holt. Only QPR and Stoke scored less goals than Norwich last season, so it was certainly an area that they needed to improve on. Everton on the other hand have also made some solid additions, in particular Kone up front who reunites with Martinez. More importantly they have kept hold of Baines and Fellaini, for now anyway.
Looking ahead to the game and it looks pretty evenly matched given Norwich’s additions upfront whilst Everton may have some adjusting to do under new management. Norwich’s other key signing in the middle of the park, Leroy Fer, will miss through suspension which will be disappointing for Norwich fans. Norwich will be looking to avoid a repeat of their start to the 2012/13 season where they got thumped 5-0 by Fulham. They have a good chance to get on the board here with a point given 3 of their last 4 against Everton have ended in draws whilst their last meeting at Carrow road was a 2-1 win to Norwich. Can’t underestimate Everton too much but a draw is looking the likely outcome.
Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.8 – their last 5 meetings both sides have scored.
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
Sunderland ($2.3) Vs Fulham ($3.5), Draw ($3.45)
Sunderland has certainly seen the need to revamp their squad with the likes of Giaccherini and Altidore among 10 or so additions to the squad so far. Fulham have also identified areas where they needed to improve with the key areas being in goals with Steklenberg and recent loan signing Taarabt adding some much needed creative support to Berbatov and Ruiz. There’s no doubt both sides have strengthened equally, though there seems to be a bit more stability at Fulham under Martin Jol with his signings a little more tactful. Fulham will be looking to improve after their season fade off at the end of 2012/13 where they only won one of their final 8 matches.
Sunderland will have a few issues heading into this game with a number of players out either through injury or suspension. When you couple this with the number of new faces in the squad it doesn’t bode too well for a positive outcome, on paper at least. One key area I’m not convinced about is their new keeper in Mannone. Although he is capable enough, he is clearly a step down from Mignolet which could well open the door for a Berbatov type to cause some trouble. Whilst I pegged Fulham to finish behind Sunderland this season, I feel that Sunderland are just looking a bit too patchy heading into their season opener with the number of injury doubts and suspensions they have. Fulham in a tight one for me with both teams scoring.
Predicted result: Fulham 2-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.85
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
West Brom ($2.42) Vs Southampton ($3.25), Draw ($3.5)
West Brom are coming off an incredible season where they finished 8th thanks largely to the feats of former loanee Lukaku from Chelsea. The new partnership up front of Anelka and Vydra (loan) looks to be a great blend of experience and you and it’ll be a success if they can cover the loss of goals from Lukaku between them. Meanwhile Southampton will be looking for an impact from new signings Lovren in central defence as well as Wanyama from Cletic whilst Rickie Lambert will be on a massive high having scored on debut for England during the week.
Heading into this game there are a couple of injury clouds hanging over Clyne and Shaw which could hamper their attacking runs from fullback. This could well open the door for Vydra and or Anelka to get on the scoresheet. Southampton will be as equally strong up front with Lambert on a high whilst being supported from behind by the likes of Lallana and Ramierz. Being undefeated in their last 5 at home to Southampton should put West Brom in good stead heading into this one whilst Anelka’s 4 goals in his last two pre-season games will give him added confidence in front of a home crowd. Southampton will push them, but if Clyne and Shaw are both out I think West Brom will have enough to get over the line at home here.
Predicted result: West Brom 2-1
Best bet: Double chance West Brom at $1.39
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
West Ham ($2.02) Vs Cardiff ($4.2), Draw ($3.6)
West Ham host Premier League new boys Cardiff City in their season opener. It’ll be tough trip for Cardiff as Upton Park is certainly not an easy place to play at. Allardyce did brilliantly with West Ham to consolidate their position back in the top flight last season. Cardiff look the strongest of the three promoted sides and have a good chance to get a jump on their Championship rivals if they put in a good performance here. The signings of Medel from Sevilla and Caulker from Tottenham will go a long way to ensuring their survival this season whilst the experience of Bellamy will be invaluable throughout.
It’s a big ask for Cardiff to get the win against a side that finished 10th last season with only 4 losses at home. Cardiff won’t die wondering in this game and they’ll certainly be on the attack but the Hammers will also be looking to dominate them from the outset. Whilst I don’t think West Ham will completely dominate this Cardiff side, I do think they’ll get the win at home. An injury cloud over Andy Carroll isn’t ideal for the Hammers but they should have enough potency to make it 4 wins on the trot against Cardiff since their Championship meetings.
Predicted result: West Ham 2-1
Best bet: West Ham to win at $2.02 looks good value here
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Swansea ($4.2) Vs Manchester United ($2.04), Draw ($3.55)
The title holder’s travel to Swansea in their opening game in what a few people are saying could be a danger game for them. I tend to agree with this notion as Swansea are a good side when in possession of the ball and make you work hard to get the ball back. They’ve also added some quality support to Michu in the form of Wilfried Bony. Bony will take a bit of the load off the goal scoring duties of Michu whilst also allowing him to play a little more freely behind Bony as the frontline striker. Whilst United haven’t made a big name signing thus far, there is no doubting their quality and belief and they’ll certainly need that here.
Swansea managed a 1-1 draw at home the last time they played United and the fact they have strengthened only enhances their chances here. Moyes will be under a lot of self-pressure to ensure he gets his new side off to a winning start. It’ll also be interesting to see if there are any Rooney affects not to mention a rather lengthy injury list. Young, Hernandez, Nani, and Fletcher will all be out whilst Rafael will be serving a suspension. Whilst I feel Swansea are more than capable of causing an upset and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they did, it’s hard to go past Manchester United albeit in a tight one. I’m sensing another RVP to the rescue mission.
Predicted result: Manchester United 2-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.74. United at $2.04 to win is pretty tempting.
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Crystal Palace ($5.1) Vs Tottenham ($1.86), Draw ($3.75)
It’s not a major London derby, but it’s still a derby after all. Palace will be buzzing for their first game of the season whilst Tottenham will be looking to avoid a slow start that they had last season where they only had 2 points from their first 3 games. Tottenham’s transfer business with Soldado, Chadli, Paulinho and Capoue signing is in stark contrast to their opposition this weekend. The likes of Campana, Gayle and Chamakh will no doubt help their cause for survival, but they need some more depth if they are to have a chance against the bigger clubs.
Despite Tottenham’s poor starts to their campaigns over the past few years and the lingering Bale saga hanging over them heading into their opening game, they look to have done a lot right in their build-up. The key has been that they have bought quality players in early rather than leaving it too late in the transfer window and thus not allowing the team to gel. Palace will be tough early but I suspect Spurs will gradually run over the top of them with their pace coming to the fore on the counter.
Predicted result: Tottenham 2-0
Best bet: Tottenham is good value at $1.86 for the win
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
Chelsea ($1.21) Vs Hull ($23), Draw ($7.4)
Hull City will get their season off to a start with an away game to Chelsea in what is looming as somewhat of a David and Goliath fixture. There is no doubting Chelsea’s quality all over the park and with the added return of Mourinho, they are looking very attractive to take out the title this year in a tight contest with the Manchester rivals. Hull meanwhile will likely be struggling down the other end of the table with their fellow promotes and Premier League strugglers. On a positive for the Tigers though is that they have done some decent transfer business. They’ve brought in the sublime passing of Huddlestone from Tottenham on a permanent deal whilst also taking the capable Livermore on loan as well from Tottenham. Added to the likes of Curtis Davies, Danny Graham, and Figeuroa and it’ll certainly put them in a good position to push some sides this year.
Chelsea will be hoping for a repeat of the last time they played Hull at Stamford Bridge where they won 2-1 but more importantly it was the year they won the 2009/10 title. Hull on the other hand will be looking to get a repeat of their return fixture that year where they managed a 1-1 draw. It’d be fantastic to see Lukaku get a start here and perhaps cement his place in the side for the majority of the season with a terrorising performance. Can’t go past a Chelsea home win here.
Predicted result: Chelsea 3-0
Best bet: Chelsea half-time/full-time at $1.66
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
Manchester City ($1.34) Vs Newcastle ($11.5), Draw ($5.8)
Manchester City kick off their season at home to Newcastle in what they hope will be a bright start after a somewhat poor season last year in defending their title of 2011/12. Under Pellegrini, City have certainly added some quality with the likes of Negredo, Jovetic, Navas, and Fernandinho. He also looks to have had a positive influence on the playing group so far and it appears as though there is less animosity around the club looking in from the outside. Although Aguero wll be missing though injury, it’s good to see Dzeko lead the line through preseason as he’s a fantastic striker. For Newcastle it’ll likely be a familiar line-up after little transfer activity so far this window bar the loan signing of Remy from QPR who is out with injury.
City has a strong record over Newcastle with 5 wins on the trot with the score lines all over 2.5 goals. Whilst I expect Newcastle to be a much better side this season having been ravaged by injuries throughout 2012/13, it’s going to be a tough ask for them to get an away win here. City have an agenda this year and they will be hungry for success under a new manager having stagnated a little under Mancini.
Predicted result: Manchester City 2-1
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.66
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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