Welcome to the preview of week 6 of the English Premier League where we have some exciting match ups to look forward to. Perhaps the biggest one of the weekend will be the London derby between Tottenham and Chelsea which happens to begin this weekend’s fixtures. Both sides have been in pretty good form whilst the main attraction will be the interaction between AVB and Mourinho on the touchline going head to head. Another fixture that I’ll be looking forward to is that of Sunderland taking on Liverpool at home having just sacked Di Canio. It’s often in these situations that a team in Sunderland’s position can bounce back and cause an upset. Regardless of the result, this is a fixture to look forward to.
Best Bets this week:
Manchester United versus West Brom – Over 2.5 goals at $1.68
Everton to beat Newcastle at $1.66
Great Value this week:
Arsenal to beat Swansea away at $2.4 is great value given their form this season
Betting odds from Betfair as at 27/09/2013
Tottenham ($2.76) Vs Chelsea ($2.88), Draw ($3.35)
So we begin the weekend with Tottenham hosting a Chelsea side that they have not beaten since the 2009/10 season, though their home record over their last 5 meetings is relatively positive with 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss. Spurs managed to snatch a late win over Cardiff last weekend in a somewhat inevitable result given they had 29 shots on goal with 12 on target. Chelsea meanwhile are coming off a solid 2-0 win over Fulham after a tough loss to Everton the week prior and will be after a strong result against top opposition.
Chelsea will have a concern heading into this one with Ramires sustaining a hip injury during the week in their cup match against Swindon though he still has a slight chance of playing. Tottenham similarly have an injury concern with Rose not making an appearance against Cardiff or Villa in their cup tie but could make a return here. Both sides have been pretty solid defensively with Tottenham only conceding the one goal whilst Chelsea have only conceded twice which could make for a tough battle. Tottenham have certainly been making a lot of chances with Soldado unlucky to not score from open play in the league thus far. Chelsea will be hoping Eto’o has settled enough to cause problems for Tottenham, though it’s looking likely both sides could cancel each other out here.
Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Best bet: Both defences have been solid, but in a derby you’d expect the emphasis to be on attack so both sides should score here at $1.8
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Aston Villa ($7.4) Vs Manchester City ($1.56), Draw ($4.3)
Villa are looking undermanned after losing main man Benteke to an injury against Norwich last week which was compounded by a 4-0 defeat by Tottenham during the week in their cup fixture. Manchester City meanwhile look like they are starting to gel together after a fantastic 4-1 victory over rivals Manchester United last weekend which will do a great deal to kick start their season after a couple of stuttering performances. Even if RVP was playing, I doubt the result would have looked much different.
City have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two with Villa’s last win coming in their league cup encounter in Sept 2012 in extra time. Whilst City have scored 16 goals against Villa in these last 6 games, only 2 of them were scored at Villa Park. I can’t see this trend continuing though, with City’s attacking options looking the goods with the likes of Negredo, Aguero, Dzeko, Navas, and Nasri to cause plenty of heartache for this Villa defence. The loss of Benteke is too big a blow for this Villa side when coming up against the big sides.
Predicted result: Manchester City 2-0
Best bet: Manchester City to win at $1.56
Best Bet Confidence: 90%
Fulham ($2.18) Vs Cardiff ($3.9), Draw ($3.45)
Fulham has struggled in comparison to Cardiff so far this season having not won since their opening day triumph over Sunderland. Cardiff meanwhile has a win and 2 draws and are coming off a hard fought loss to Tottenham though their away form needs some work if they are to stay up this season.
Fulham had a morale boosting 2-1 win over Everton during the week in their cup fixture which puts them in a good position at home against Cardiff. Berbatov should feature here again after making his return from injury against Everton and scoring a goal. If not for Marshall’s form in goal last week, Cardiff could have well lost to Tottenham by 3 or 4 goals and he’ll need to replicate that form if Cardiff are any chance of taking a point or more here. Look for Fulham to get a home win here with Berbatov and Bent leading the way.
Predicted result: Fulham 1-0
Best bet: Fulham look good value to get a win here at home at $2.18
Best Bet Confidence: 65%
Hull ($2.38) Vs West Ham ($3.45), Draw ($3.35)
An interesting matchup here sees Hull side already with 2 wins and a draw take on a West Ham side somewhat struggling with injuries with the pressure mounting after a good season last year. Hull had a fantastic win over Newcastle away last week 3-2 in what looked like a pretty tough fixture for them, but to get an away win at Newcastle will be huge for their confidence. The Hammer’s meanwhile are sorely missing Andy Carroll and are desperate to see him back on the pitch. With a number of players such as Downing and Cole under injury clouds, it doesn’t bode too well heading into an away fixture against a Hull side on the up.
If Hull can keep their heads out of the sky and focus on the task at hand, they’ll have enough to trouble West Ham here at home. West Ham are more renowned for their home record but this season they’ve lost 2 of their 3 home games whilst they’ve managed draws in their 2 away games to Newcastle and Southampton. Whilst Hull were impressive last week and West Ham have their problems, I can see this one ending in a tight draw despite Hull having the upper hand at home. The injury to Robbie Brady for Hull also makes it difficult to see Hull getting a clear cut win but it doesn’t put them completely out of the game.
Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Best bet: West Ham Double Chance at $1.68
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Manchester United ($1.31) Vs West Brom ($13), Draw ($6)
Manchester United suffered a big loss last week to Manchester City losing 4-1 to give them their second loss of the season in what is a poor start for Moyes at United. They are however by no means out of the title race and have had tough opposition to start the year in Liverpool, Man City, and Chelsea. West Brom meanwhile had a good win over Sunderland last week, though we shouldn’t look too much into that result given it was a Sunerland side sinking under the management of the now departed Di Canio.
United have won 8 of the last 10 against West Brom with the remaining two games being draws. Perhaps their last fixture was the most exciting given it ended in a 5-5 draw including a hat trick from Lukaku whom West Brom have sorely missed this season. Give United’s record at home and over West Brom, they should have more than enough to get a much needed win for Moyes. RVP making a return or remaining absent from this one should have little effect on the outcome. Hopefully we’ll get to see the likes of Kagawa and Hernandez get a start here to prove their worth under Moyes.
Predicted result: Manchester United 3-0
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.68
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
Southampton ($1.49) Vs Crystal Palace ($8.8), Draw ($4.5)
Southampton take on Crystal Palace at home this week having beaten Liverpool away last week 1-0 in what was a big win for this club. Palace meanwhile suffered their 4th loss last week at the hands of Swansea and are starting to show signs of cracks albeit thanks to a lengthy injury list that is certainly not helping their cause for survival early on.
Southampton have no real injury concerns heading into this one which puts them in a great position to get a good result at home. Whilst they have only scored 3 goals thus far, this could be the week where they get a good 2 or 3 nil win consolidate their spot in the top 10 in this early part of the season. Osvaldo has been impressive and is not far away from scoring whilst other attacking options in Lambert, Rodriguez, and Lallana will create plenty of chances against Palace this weekend. Whilst I shouldn’t count out Palace too much from causing some trouble this week, it’s difficult to see them getting a win over a Southampton side that is good at home and has some quality players all over the park.
Predicted result: Southampton 2-0
Best bet: Southampton to win at $1.49
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
Swansea ($3.3) Vs Arsenal ($2.4), Draw ($3.5)
Arsenal will be pushing for their fifth win on the trot as they travel to Swansea this weekend and they look in a good position to get the 3 points. It was a clinical performance at home versus Stoke last week where we saw new signing Ozil take his assists tally to 3 and Ramsey continue his red hot goal scoring form that doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon. On the flipside, Swansea are coming off a good win away to Crystal Palace, but are coming off a 3-1 loss to Birmingham during their League Cup fixture during the week (albeit a weaker side was selected).
The Gunner’s have a few injury concerns still with the likes of Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain still missing, but it hasn’t hampered them too much thus far. I’m a bit of a fan of this Swansea side as they play a game style that’s easy on the eye and have some great attacking talent in the squad with Michu and Bony. My concern for Swansea is that while they should play pretty well this weekend and have every chance of getting a result, this Arsenal side has just shown how good they are despite the injuries and despite only the one big dabble in the transfer market to secure Ozil. Ozil has been excellent along with Ramsey and Giroud which leads me to suspect that they will continue their winning form despite some stiff opposition.
Predicted result: Arsenal 2-1
Best bet: Arsenal are value here at $2.4 to get the win
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
Stoke ($2) Vs Norwich ($4.4), Draw ($3.45)
An intriguing matchup between Stoke and Norwich starts Sunday’s fixtures. Both sides are coming off losses last week with Stoke losing 3-1 to Arsenal and Norwich losing 1-0 to Aston Villa. Norwich were a bit unlucky to not get away with a point at least against Villa as they created a lot of chances and were unlucky to not score an early penalty if not for a fine save by Guzan for Villa. That penalty could have flipped the end result Norwich’s way, but that’s football. Coming off a 3-2 win over Watford in their League Cup tie will be a boost heading into this one as they hadn’t scored since the end of August in their 1-0 win over Southampton.
Stoke haven’t lost at home to Norwich since 96/97 and whilst Stoke’s solid start to the season is pointing to a similar finish in this one, I don’t think we can overlook Norwich here. They have plenty of attacking talent that have had chance but just haven’t been able to finish of the chances they get and I think it’s only a matter of time until they get a good run on. With Hooper back in the frame having made an appearance off the bench against Villa, it could be a good time to throw him up front either in place of Van Wolfswinkel or in partnership and see what he can do. Should be a tight game here with chances for both sides but I can see this one finishing in a draw at the end in what would be a good result for both sides.
Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.72
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
Sunderland ($5.6) Vs Liverpool ($1.74), Draw ($3.95)
The black cats will be pumped for this one with the shackles released, mentally more than anything, after the rightful sacking of Di Canio. It makes this very much a danger game for Liverpool after they themselves are in a bit of a bad patch having drawn to Swansea, lost to Southampton, and lost to Manchester United during the week in their League Cup fixture. The one obvious positive was the return of Suarez during the week against United and he’ll be a much needed player this weekend as the loss of Coutinho to injury has somewhat stifled their creativity. I’d also hope that we don’t see 4 central defenders playing together again which only serves to limit their attack down the wings from their full backs.
Statistics are perhaps really irrelevant in this one as Sunderland will be playing freely for the first time this season without the pressure of Di Canio, whilst Liverpool will be wary but certainly boosted by Suarez. Whilst there is an expectation that Sunderland will come out and play well, I think Liverpool won’t be too fussed about the situation as if anything it puts more pressure on Sunderland to put in a good performance in front of their home fans. This should tilt the result towards Liverpool assuming they can get their creativity going.
Predicted result: Liverpool in a tight contest 2-1
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at $2.04 with this game to be pretty openly played
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
Everton ($1.66) Vs Newcastle ($6.2), Draw ($4)
The last game of the week sees Everton host a Newcastle side disappointed and looking to make amends for their loss to Hull last week. Everton are so far undefeated this season with 3 draws and 2 wins and look like they are about to really click into gear with Lukaku to take control up front. Loan signing Gareth Barry also looks like he’s really enjoying his football at the moment and will be a key to their success for the remainder of the season.
Everton have only lost once to Newcastle in their last 10 games at home and that trend looks like continuing. Everton is one of those sides that are very strong at home and their form this season has shown just that. Newcastle have made a good start to the season compared to their woes last year with 2 wins and a draw, but this will be a tough match for them. I can see Lukaku taking this game away from Newcastle and becoming a crowd favourite at Goodison Park.
Predicted result: Everton 2-0
Best bet: Everton to win at $1.66
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
