Welcome to the Week 13 preview of the English Premier League. It was a massive week last week with some stunning games played. The Liverpool and Everton game is perhaps one of the most exciting games I have witnessed for some time. Six goals split evenly is some scoreline in itself, but the way in which these goals were scored and the timing was just incredible. Let’s hope we see plenty more games like this throughout the season. Another six goal game saw my Spurs get thumped by Manchester City to clearly show that this Tottenham side is going to take a lot more time than many would have thought (not to take anything away from Manchester City of course, they were unbelievable!). At the other end of the scale, it was heartening to see the struggling Crystal Palace notch up their second win of the season against a tough Hull side away. Let’s get stuck into Week 13 where we certainly have some tantalising matchups to entertain us.
Best Bets this week:
Manchester City versus Swansea over 2.5 goals at $1.64
Liverpool to beat Hull at $1.66
Great Value this week:
Chelsea for Half time/Full Time at $2.42 looks good value
Betting odds from Betfair as at 28/11/13
Aston Villa ($1.99) Vs Sunderland ($4.5), Draw ($3.55)
Sunderland have another away game this week and this time against Aston Villa. Sunderland have had no luck in their 6 away games thus far conceding 14 goals for 1 draw and 4 losses and it doesn’t look like getting much easier this week. Villa have been a little up and down this season but they have found some stability in recent results and are undefeated in their last 3. What makes this the more difficult again for Sunderland is that they will not have happy memories from the same fixture last season which saw Villa thump Sunderland 6-1 with Benteke contributing a hat trick. Whilst the result may not be as big a win this weekend,I can’t see Villa losing this one at home against a wayward and poor Sunderland side away from home. With Chelsea and Tottenham to follow, it certainly isn’t going to get much easier for them either.
Predicted result: Aston Villa 2-1
Best bet: Aston Villa to win at $1.99
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Cardiff ($6.2) Vs Arsenal ($1.65), Draw ($4.2)
It’s Arsenal’s turn to travel to Cardiff to try and break down this stubborn side at home. Having taken the 3 points off Manchester City as well holding Everton and Manchester United to Draws, it’s certainly becoming a bit of a fortress against the top sides for Cardiff. The intimidating atmosphere no doubt plays a big role as well as spurring the Cardiff players on to outperform their opponents. The hard part though is that Arsenal have the best away record in the league with 4 wins, a draw, and a loss. Whilst Cardiff’s opponents last week, whom they drew with, have the next best away record, they have had a far less convincing season thus far which puts Arsenal in a good position this weekend. It certainly won’t be a regulation win for Arsenal this weekend as Cardiff will be fired up against another top side, but I feel that Arsenal’s superior midfield will again run the show and eventually breakdown their defence for a goal or two. I would be surprised to see Cardiff take a point here given past results, but I think Arsenal will end up having a bit too much class and good form for them.
Predicted result: Arsenal 2-1
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.86
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Everton ($1.64) Vs Stoke ($6.4), Draw ($4)
Everton had a fantastic game last week against Liverpool to claim a draw in a game in which either side equally deserved to win given their respective performances. Lukaku was a monster scoring two crucial goals to give Everton the lead but more importantly it was a timely return to form for him and the team having not scored for them since 5th of October. It also maintained their unbeaten home record this season with 3 wins and 3 draws. Their opponents this week in Stoke had their first win since August when they beat West Ham. Although not the toughest of opponents in Sunderland, it would no doubt have provided a good morale boost amongst the playing group.
The hurdle for Stoke again this week is not only where they are going to get their goals from, but how they are going to stop them. Their last 2 away games they have conceded 6 goals and in their last 4 away they have conceded 10 in total. Everton have by no means piled on the goals at home having only scored 9 at home, but an in form Lukaku is a scary prospect to defend and they don’t give away many goals either, especially at home. Look for Everton to get their 6th with of the season here.
Predicted result: Everton 2-0
Best bet: Everton to win at $1.65
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
Norwich ($2) Vs Crystal Palace ($4.5), Draw ($3.5)
The Canaries take on the Eagles this week with Crystal Palace up and about after their win over Hull last week. Norwich had an equally as tough assignment but were unsuccessful in toppling Newcastle away. There’s a bit of an unknown feel about Crystal Palace at the moment as they’ve played well the past few games with a draw against Everton and the win against Hull. With new manager Tony Pulis taking the helm as well, things are certainly looking up for them after plenty of heartache the past few months. With a new manager, the players will certainly be heading out with something to prove this weekend as well as to impress their new boss. I can’t see them notching a win away at Norwich, but I can see them playing well enough for a draw here. Norwich have been patchy at best this season, and whilst their win over West Ham was great and they had a late dig at Newcastle, they should be wary of this Palace side that’s held Everton and beat a Hull side away that has so far been very good this season.
Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Best bet: 17 goals between these two sides have been scored so I like the under 2.5 goals at $1.85 with Palace keeping 2 clean sheets in a row.
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
West Ham ($1.96) Vs Fulham ($4.5), Draw ($3.6)
A London derby takes place this week as 17th hosts 18th with both West Ham and Fulham in desperate need of a win. Fulham have lost their last 4 as the pressure continues to mount of manager Martin Jol, whilst West Ham are suffering without their main striker having now only collected 2 points in their past 5 games. West Ham have been woeful at home as a result with only the 4 points taken from a possible 18 and their opponents haven’t been much better away with only the 2 wins from their 6 away games. If West Ham had a striker up front then I’d certainly lean towards this one being a West Ham win with Fulham not travelling too well of late. But given that they don’t and that Fulham are not in the best form overall I can only see this one finishing in a draw.
Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.82
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
Newcastle ($2.12) Vs West Brom ($3.9), Draw ($3.6)
When I first looked at the odds here for this Newcastle versus West Brom game I immediately thought West Brom were good value. West Brom have been a combination of solid and unlucky in their away games this season. Their 6 games away have seen a draw with Everton, a draw with Fulham, a win at Manchester United, a draw with Stoke, a loss at Liverpool, and a draw at Chelsea. They have had a tough run away to start the season and it’s not much easier against Newcastle this week who have won their last 3 as well as being undefeated in their last 3 at home. They’ll also be boosted by the return of Debuchy to their defence. Should be an interesting game considering West Brom have been good away and Newcastle have been in good form lately. I think the fair result here is a draw but I’m looking more to both sides scoring. Newcastle have a great attack to breach West Brom’s defence, whilst the Baggie’s have shown they are more than capable of scoring goals with 6 in their last 3 of which Shane Long has scored 3.
Predicted result: Draw 2-2
Best bet: Both teams to score at $1.72
Best Bet Confidence: 80%
Tottenham ($2.82) Vs Manchester United ($2.76), Draw ($3.45)
It’s time for Tottenham to bounce back after their humiliation last week at the hands of Manchester City and they’ll need to do so quickly if they are to get a result against Manchester United. It’s easy to speculate and say what a side should be doing to get back on the winner’s list but I’m sure behind closed doors Tottenham are working overtime to rectify their issues. Without defending them too much seeing as I’m a Tottenham fan, it’s clear to me that as a fan my fellow supporters of Tottenham are too used to the great players we’ve had over the past few years. Modric, Van der Vaart, King, as well as Bale all had a massive impact at this club and it’s clear to me now that Tottenham are in a bit of transition. So it’s interesting to see Manchester United only slight favourites this week firstly seeing as Utd have been improving and secondly because Spurs have been largely unimpressive at home. United haven’t lost to Tottenham in their past 5 at White Hart Lane either even if 3 of those were draws. United will no doubt be wary with Tottenham desperate to bounce back but I think their best chance of appeasing fans this weekend would be a draw.
Predicted result: Manchester united 2-1
Best bet: Double chance Manchester United at $1.50
Best Bet Confidence: 70%
Hull ($6.4) Vs Liverpool ($1.66), Draw ($4)
Interesting results last week for both sides here with Hull losing to Palace at Home whilst Liverpool were involved in that incredible 3-3 draw with Everton. I’ve been a fan of this Hull side this year as they’ve shown plenty of grit and determination whilst still showing some creativity to get results. Liverpool’s only problem has been their mixed away form with only the 2 wins from their 6 away games. Their last 3 away games have been against tough sides in Arsenal, Everton, and Newcastle though which can help explain some of that mixed form. This will be a massive test for Hull and is certainly the biggest side they’ve hosted so far. With Suarez and Sturridge in such good form as well, I can’t see Liverpool losing here. Sturridge should regain a starting place once more alongside Suarez having made that sub appearance to score against Everton last week. Hull have been tight at home only conceding the 2 goals but I can see a couple more being conceded this week.
Predicted result: Liverpool 2-0
Best bet: Liverpool to win at $1.66
Best Bet Confidence: 85%
Chelsea ($1.57) Vs Southampton ($7), Draw ($4.3)
Chelsea take on Southampton this week in what is another big test for the Saint’s after their impressive first 3rd of the season. It will be tough though and although Chelsea lost their Champion’s league encounter during the week to Basel, they have been impressive at home with 5 wins at a draw from their 6 home games. They’ve also only conceded 5 times to go along with their 14 goals scored at home which puts them in a strong position against this Southampton side that lost to Arsenal last week away. Southampton still have by far the best defensive record in the league having only now conceded 7 goals with the next best being Arsenal and Chelsea with 10. So whilst there’s no doubt they can hold their own defensively against most sides so far this season, Chelsea’s strong record at home suggests to me that Southampton could stumble again this week albeit against another top side.
Predicted result: Chelsea 2-0
Best bet: Chelsea for Half time/Full Time at $2.42 looks good value
Best Bet Confidence: 75%
Manchester City ($1.33) Vs Swansea ($12.5), Draw ($5.7)
The dominant Manchester City side that has so far scored in their past 56 home games takes on Swansea this week in a game that they should almost certainly score in again. This will be Swansea’s biggest away game of the season thus far and I’m sure they won’t be looking forward to playing this side that completely dismantled Tottenham last week. It’s still startling to read that Manchester City have scored 26 goals in 6 home games and have only conceded twice. It’s really incredible and puts them in a great position in the lead up to January. I’m sure Swansea will try and play their natural game here and hold possession as much as they can, but I can only see the inevitable happening which is that Man City will score and will win.
Predicted result: Manchester City 3-0
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.64 – 5 of City’s 6 home games have all been over 3.5 goals so an over 2.5 looks safe here.
Best Bet Confidence: 90%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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