2016 Champions League – Round of 16

champions league

The remaining half of the round of 16 1st legs finishes up this week with some massive matches to kick things off Wednesday Morning with Arsenal facing a mammoth test in Barcelona at home whilst Juventus take on the German Champions Bayern Munich. These are no doubt the two matches of this stage of the finals but we can’t ignore the other four sides that finish off the first legs with PSV hosting Atletico Madrid and Manchester City make the trip to Dynamo Kyiv. Both in their own rights are tough contests but the glamour this week is no doubt surrounding the Wednesday fixtures. Plenty can happen in this critical first stage for these sides so let’s see what may unfold.

**Odds from Sportsbet as at 22nd Feb

Arsenal ($5) versus Barcelona ($1.67), Draw ($3.8)

Arsenal were held in their FA Cup tie against Hull city on the weekend perhaps largely because they have their eyes and minds on the bigger contest here against Barcelona. The Spanish giants have been in stunning form this season losing just twice in La Liga and holding a commanding 8 point lead over 2nd placed Atletico Madrid. The scary prospect for Arsenal here is that Barcelona boast perhaps the best attack in world football right now. From 25 league games they’ve smashed in 67 goals and can add a further 15 from their 6 Champions’ League group stage matches as well. It’s almost pointless going through the remaining stats of their season so far but there’s no doubt they are the team to beat here. As for Arsenal’s chances, it’s not to say they won’t have a chance of making this a contest over both legs but this first leg is so critical to perform at their best to have any chance. Then again when I start thinking about how Arsenal could possibly win this I remind myself of the front three of Suarez, Messi, and Neymar and realise that it’s largely pointless in doing so.

Predicted score: Barcelona 2-0
Best Bet: Barcelona to win at $1.67 (95%)
Next Best: Barcelona to lead at Half-Time at $2.1

Juventus ($2.87) versus Bayern Munich ($2.5), Draw ($3.2)

This matchup makes it such a difficult choice on which match to watch given Barcelona’s trip to Arsenal at the same time but I guess we have to be thankful for technology and the ability to record. These two last met back in the Champions league in 2013 with Bayern winning both legs 2-0 and I feel like the two matches here may follow a similar pattern. Juventus are a very good side defensively as shown by their 15 goals conceded in Serie A from 25 games and just the 3 in their Champions’ League group stage matches. They’ll no doubt look to frustrate Bayern here and keep things tight but it may just come down to 1 goal that decides this first leg anyway. Bayern themselves have equally if not been better than Juventus defensively with just the 11 goals conceded from 22 league games. For Bayern though it’s almost as if their best form of defence is attack and the attack they boast should be plenty enough to get through this first test. I’m also not that sold on Juventus having the form to break through this Bayern defence. They’ve scored at a better rate in Serie A but in the Champions league group stages they struggled for goals with just the 6 from 6 games.

Predicted score: Bayern Munich 1-0
Best Bet: Bayern Munich Draw No Bet at $1.75 (85%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.59 

PSV ($4.75) versus Atletico Madrid ($1.8), Draw ($3.5)

Atletico Madrid make the first leg trip to PSV in their bid to make it through to the next stage. PSV should provide some stern opposition in this first leg but Atletico will be perhaps more confident across both legs knowing they have home ground advantage in the 2nd leg so if they can notch an away goal here and at worst secure a draw then they should have enough of an advantage to make it through to the next stage. Atletico didn’t lose away from home in the group stages so they won’t hold much fear in this away leg but it’ll be important they don’t get too complacent. One of the keys to Atletico this season has been their defence. 11 goals conceded from 25 games is an incredible return so far to go along with just the 3 conceded in the group stages to make it just 14 goals conceded across both competitions and 31 games. PSV themselves were able to keep 2 clean sheets in their Champions’ League group matches and of the 7 goals they conceded from their 6 games they conceded just twice at home. That will give them some confidence but in the end this one is poised well for Atletico to take the advantage one way or another.

Predicted score: Atletico Madrid 1-0
Best Bet: Atletico Madrid to win at $1.8 (75%)
Next Best: Under 2.5 goals at $1.57

Dynamo Kyiv ($3.3) versus Manchester City ($2.25), Draw ($3.3)

They haven’t been in the greatest of form lately but there’s no better time than now for Manchester City to turn things around in their first leg match at Dynamo Kyiv. City have lost their last 3 games in all competitions but this competition is a big focus for the outgoing Pellegrini and the fact he was able to rest a number of key players from their FA Cup loss to Chelsea should put them in a good position here. The likes of Aguero, Silva, Kompany, Toure, and Sterling all missed that game with a keen eye on this first away leg. I’m not sure if that will worry Dynamo too much but they have really only had club friendly action in the build up to this contest due to their winter break with their last really competitive fixture coming back on December 10th. With that said though there’s still an element of doubt about Manchester City based on their recent form before their youthful FA Cup side that played Chelsea at the weekend. Their previous 2 contests resulted in losses at home to Leicester and Tottenham which doesn’t bode well ahead of this game. For me though I’m going to back them to get the result. An away leg first up isn’t ideal but there’s a sense of less distraction that comes with that and coupling that with rested stars should allow them to take the advantage.

Predicted score: Manchester City 2-1
Best Bet: Manchester City to win either half at $1.63 (85%)
Next Best: Manchester City to win at $2.25

Author

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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