EPL

2013 Champion’s League Quarter Finals – Second Legs

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As we near the Semi Finals of the Champion’s League for 2012/13 it’s becoming pretty clear that it’s going to be a very tight finish. The likes of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona are the clear favourites but we cannot discount a team like Dortmund who are highly capable of taking out the tournament. At this stage it should be these 4 sides in the Semi’s unless of course we see a surprise comeback in the second legs of the Quarters with sides like Juventus and Malaga not completely out of it. Either way we have some exhilarating football ahead of us this week!

Best Value Bet: Barcelona / PSG both teams to score at $1.88

Dortmund ($1.45) Versus Malaga ($8.6), Draw ($4.6)

  • First Leg Result: Draw 0-0
  • Stats in the CL this season:
    • Dortmund:
      • Average 17 shots per game at home with 7 on target
      • Lewandowski leads both sides for goals and assist combine with 7 (5 goals, 2 assists)
    • Malaga:
      • Malaga is yet to concede a goal in the first half.
      • Average pass success drops from 81% at home to 75% away

The first leg between these two saw a 0-0 draw and it leaves things wide open heading into this second leg, though it is no doubt going to be a tough trip for Malaga. Dortmund will be rueing the fact that they couldn’t at least get an away goal and you can’t help but feel that Malaga will be leaving nothing in the dressing room when they come out here. Considering that Malaga is going to be pushing for the win or at least a 1-1 draw for that away goal, it will surely open up their defence that has been quite solid throughout. This should give the likes of Lewandowski, Reus and Gotze to create chances and get the win on home ground advantage. Look for Dortmund to take their chances here and capitalise on a Malaga side desperate for an away goal that will be hard to get considering Dortmund has only let through one away goal all tournament.
Predicted result: Dortmund 1-0
Confidence: 85%
Best Bet: Dortmund to win at $1.45

Galatasaray ($5) Versus Real Madrid ($1.76), Draw ($4)

  • First Leg Result: Real Madrid 3-0
  • Stats in the CL this season:
    • Galatasaray:
      • Yilmaz has scored 8 goals which is equal second for the tournament. This is also 73% of his team’s total goals. Time for Drogba to step up.
      • Equal 1st for goals on the counter with 3.
    • Real Madrid:
      • Average 17.8 shots per away game with 7.3 on target, the highest in the tournament.
      • 57.1% of their goals have come in the second half – Of the goals they have conceded, 63.6% have come in the second half.

It was always going to be an uphill battle for Galatasaray to snatch a win let alone an away goal when they played away at Real Madrid in the first leg. They certainly have the talent and in the likes of Sneijder, Drogba, Yilmaz and co but there was just a bit too much star power from Real Madrid. 3 goals down they’ll no doubt give it everything here in the second leg at home but surely Real Madrid will head into this one looking to be a little more defensive than normal but will take their chances when presented. It was encouraging to see Benzema get a nice goal as well and that will do him the world of good confidence wise considering the amount of flack he receives for his lack of goal scoring prowess for France. This should be an entertaining fixture early with Galatasaray throwing everything at Real, but Real Madrid should close it out comfortably. Don’t be surprised to see both sides score.
Predicted result: Real Madrid 2-1
Confidence: 85%
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.71

Barcelona ($1.37) Versus PSG ($9.8), Draw ($5.6)

  • First Leg Result: Draw 2-2
  • Stats in the CL this season:
    • Barcelona:
      • It’s hardly surprising they’ve averaged 72% possession at home
      • Messi will be a big miss as he has accounted for 47% of their goals.
    • PSG:
      • Their games have averaged 2.89 goals per game which is the same as Barcelona.
      • Ibrahimovic shows he’s a team player with 6 assists whilst chipping in for 3 goals – though we all know one of these shouldn’t have counted with that huge offside!

Probably the biggest second leg of the Quarter Finals given that the first one ended in a 2-2 draw and a Messi injury (though there is a chance he could make a quick recovery to take part) to make things interesting in the second leg. PSG can count themselves very very lucky to have been able to level the first leg 2-2 after Ibrahimovic’s goal was clearly offside, but at the end of the day these things happen in football. We can see PSG sneaking an away goal here but it’s pretty hard to go past Barcelona at home. Despite the loss of Mascherano and the potential that Messi won’t take his place, there is too much talent in this side for them to let this one slip. PSG has plenty of talent in the likes of Lucas and Lavezzi which puts them in good stead for future Champion’s league runs, but it’s here where their run ends for this year.
Predicted result: Barcelona 3-1
Confidence: 75%
Best Bet: Both teams to score at $1.88

Juventus ($2.78) Versus Bayern Munich ($2.72), Draw ($3.55)

  • First Leg Result: Bayern 2-0
  • Stats in the CL this season:
  • Juventus:
    • Lost their first game of the tournament to Bayern in the 1st leg.
    • Yet to concede a goal in the final 15 minutes.
  • Bayern Munich: Conceded a total of 6 goals in the final 15 minutes of their games which ranks 1stfor the whole tournament with Nordsjaelland.
    • Average goals per game (For and Against) across their 9 games is 3.33

It was an early and perhaps rare mistake from Andre Pirlo that gave the lead to Bayern in less than a minute in their first leg encounter. It’s a massive ask for Juventus to turn this deficit around, even with the second leg at home. This Bayern Munich side has been in unbelievable form this season both domestically and across Europe. On a side note to the Champion’s league, Bayern has only conceded 13 goals in all of their Bundesliga games whilst scoring 79 – that’s incredible in itself. Juventus’s hopes will rest on taking positives from Arsenal’s performance against them when they won 2-0 at Bayern. If they can get an early goal then it’ll blow the game wide open. At the final whistle though we should be seeing Bayern through to the Semi’s without too much trouble, though this one could well end in a draw.
Predicted result: Draw 1-1
Confidence: 70%
Best Bet: Double Chance Bayern at $1.44

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Photo By Christopher Johnson (Flickr: Lionel Messi Player of the Year 2011) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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