EPL

2016 Champions League – Quarter Finals – 1st Leg

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The Champions League returns for Quarter Final action this week with the 1st legs kicking off Wednesday morning. There’s been some great football so far and it should continue with some great looking matchups this week. Barcelona take on league counterparts Atletico Madrid whilst the other headline matchup takes place between PSG and Manchester City. The other heavyweights in Real Madrid and Bayern Munich have seemingly easier fixtures on paper in Wolfsburg and Benfica respectively but regardless should make for a good contest.

**Odds from Sportsbet as at 4th April

Bayern Munich ($1.2) versus Benfica ($12), Draw ($6)

The German Champions had it tough to get through to this stage when they faced Juventus, but they managed to get through in the 2nd leg at home from 2 goals down. They now have a chance to stamp their authority from the get go with a home leg first up against Benfica. Benfica have been in great form recently winning their last 8 games straight in all competitions but there’s no doubt this is a big task away from home first up. It’s difficult to see them coming and causing any sort of upset first up though with Bayern losing just the 1 game at home all season across all competitions. Of course that shows they can be defeated but I dare say this is a game where Bayern are looking to make a statement to ease any pressure ahead of the 2nd leg.

Predicted score: Bayern Munich 3-0
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at $1.55 (85%)
Next Best: Bayern Munich Half-Time/Full-time at $1.67

Barcelona ($1.44) versus Atletico Madrid ($7.5), Draw ($4.2)

A terrific matchup here with Barcelona hosting Atletico first up. Barcelona have a strong record over Atletico winning the last 6 meetings between the two however there is some hope for Atletico to take something into the 2nd leg at least given that in those 6 meetings only 1 has been won by more than 1 goal. Barca will need to find some form again as well after their undefeated run of 39 games was ended last time out when they lost to rivals Real Madrid 2-1 at the weekend at home. That will give Atletico some confidence though they’ll also be wary that Barcelona don’t stay down for long and for me I don’t think they’ll be losing this one. It’ll be tight but I’m sure Barcelona will bounce back in this first leg.

Predicted score: Barcelona 1-0
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals $1.77 (70%)
Next Best: Half-Time Draw at $2.1 

PSG ($1.67) versus Manchester City ($5.5), Draw ($3.6)

PSG take on another Premier League side with Manchester City making the trip across in this first leg. City are a little bit of an unknown at the moment because they have been pretty inconsistent at times this season. They’ve won 2 of their last 5 games in all competitions with 2 draws and a loss which doesn’t read well coming up against a powerhouse in PSG. They can at least take some momentum out of their 4-0 league win over Bournemouth at the weekend but it’s clear there’s a huge difference between Bournemouth and PSG. With that said, City do have the quality to challenge if they play at their best but I’d expect PSG to be right on their game in this first leg. I see this being a bit similar to PSG’s match against Chelsea where they won 2-1 with Chelsea right in the game until a winner late in the game in the last 12 minutes. And that would give City plenty to take into the 2nd leg with an away goal.

Predicted score: PSG 2-1
Best Bet:  Over 2.5 goals at $1.85 (75%)
Next Best: PSG to score exactly 1 first half goal at $2.5

Wolfsburg ($4.5) versus Real Madrid ($1.73), Draw ($3.6)

Real Madrid will be hard to beat here especially after such a good win against rivals Barcelona making it 6 straight wins now in all competitions. It seems an uphill battle for Wolfsburg from the get go and not just because it’s Real Madrid, but also because they haven’t had a great run of recent results. Their last 3 games have seen 2 losses and a draw which isn’t a great lead in. There is of course the argument that the glamour nature of the fixture with Real Madrid could spark them in to life and it might well do that but that effect might only last a short 15 or 20 minutes at the start of the game before Real Madrid really kick into gear. They’ll be in the contest but Real Madrid will take the advantage into the 2nd leg.

Predicted score: Real Madrid 2-0
Best Bet: Real Madrid to win at $1.73 (90%)
Next Best: Real Madrid to win to Nil at $3.25

Author

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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