So we arrive at game 3 of the World Series as the teams head out west to San Francisco for 3 games with the series locked up at one game a piece. Giants took the first game in emphatic fashion backed up by another freakish pitching display by Madison Bumgarner. In Game 2 the Royals finally got the bats swinging and got to Peavey and then Strickland to win rather easily. Our predictions for each game have so far been bang on and let’s hope that trend continues.
Saturday 25th
Game 3
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants (11am AEST Live on ESPN)
Royals ($2.08) – Jeremy Guthrie
Giants ($1.78) – Tim Hudson
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.96) Under 7.0 ($1.88)
Prediction
Royals
Kansas City head out to AT&T Park with Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13 ERA) squaring up against the 39yr old veteran Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57 ERA). This game has the look of a battle of the bullpens with neither pitcher really catching the eye in the post season so far and at the rear end of the regular season.
Guthrie is a consistently average pitcher, doesn’t grab headlines but just a veteran who has been around long enough to know what his roles is. He will get through 100 pitches and usually around 6 innings to hand it over to the bullpen. Can’t see him keeping the Giants off the score sheet through 6 innings though. So any play on Kansas is assuming they can get to Hudson.
Hudson has won 214 regular season games in his career. He’ll be the 6th-winningest pitcher in MLB history before making his first World Series start. No doubt about it, he has been waiting his whole career for a moment like this. He deserves it. After a tremendous start to the season he eventually dropped off and was really hurt by a few rough outings. If he keeps his walks down that’s when he is at his best. Kansas were jumping all over Peavys first few pitches in game 2 and will be interesting to see how Hudson approaches that.
Very tough game to call but I’m siding with Kansas just on that bullpen. If they get into the bullpen with a lead it will be hard to see the Giants getting back in it. This could be a great chance of a live in play bet on the Royals if they are down early where you will pick up juicy odds just before they go to their bullpen. Think we could see runs again so the over 7.0 run line would be how I would approach that market. The price on the Royals is rather generous as it’s a bit of a 50/50 game and the bullpen is where the game will be won or lost. So the $2.08 is a tad overs. Not confident in a head to head play with this game at all though pre game. As mentioned maybe a bet in play on Kansas if a good price gets put up.
Suggested Bet
Over 7.0 runs at $1.96 (75%)
Other suggested bets
Watch live price on Kansas.
Sunday 26th
Game 4
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants (11am AEST Live on ESPN)
Royals – Jason Vargas
Giants – Ryan Vogelsong
Prediction
Giants
Game 3 gives us the post season pitching machine that is Ryan Vogelsong (8-13, 4.00 ERA) up against the left handed Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA). Both pitchers ended the regular season with some pretty rough stuff being thrown around with both of them only pitching through 6 innings once in the month of September.
Typically a post season force, Vogelsong didn’t have his best stuff in his last outing against the Cardinals in the NLCS lasting just 3 innings in Game 4. Prior to that he had been excellent in all his post season games. A much better pitcher at AT&T Park then on the road so the Giants will be glad that’s where his World Series performance will be.
Vargas held the O’s to one run in over 5 innings in his ALCS outing. He has been decent in both his displays this post season also holding the Angels to 2 runs over 6 innings in the ALDS.
Not much to really look into here with neither of these guys having dominate stuff. Going to side with Vogelsong to keep up a solid post season career record. Anything can happen in Game 3 that alters opinion on this game, however as stands at time of writing I like San Francisco here. However once markets open up the suggested play could move to the run total depending what it is set at.
Suggested Bet
Giants to win (80%)
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing unless stated otherwise.
Confidence levels bracketed
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. Feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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