So we finally arrive at the grand finale of the MLB season. The World Series. Both wild card teams made it through, in what is fair to say is a bit of a surprise . Kansas City vs San Francisco Giants. The Royals are undefeated in the post season which is absolutely astounding when you look at the teams they have had to beat. They have got the hits when required, and their bullpen has been lights out. On the other hand the Giants have got through on sheer grit and determination. Solid starting pitching and key hits late in games and especially in extra innings. A bit of luck here and there which is needed to make a World Series and they once again are at the big dance.
Wednesday 22nd
Game 1
San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals (11am AEST Live on ESPN)
Giants ($1.90) – Madison Bumgarner
Royals ($1.94) – James Shields
Over/Under – Over 6.5 ($2.01) Under 6.5 ($1.84)
Prediction
Giants
After winning the NLCS MVP award, Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) faces off with Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) in Game 1 of the World Series at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas. In what will only be described as destiny which regards to which team wins this thing it’s going to be a fun week as both these teams have played exciting baseball this post season.
Bumgarner has not allowed a post season run away from home in what is now an MLB record 26 2/3 innings. This dates back to 2010. His stuff this post season has been superb. In his 4 starts he has an ERA of 1.42 and is pitching at least till the 7th innings with a pretty low walk rate of 5 in those 4 starts. The only area I have doubts with the Giants is with the bat, but they are getting the hits when needed and Buster Posey has been his usual brilliant self.
James Shields has not been his best this post season and to be honest his performances have been somewhat overshadowed but the superb fielding he has had behind him and the Royals bullpen. In his 3 starts of 16 innings pitched he has given up 10 earned runs. That’s an ERA of 5.63. Luckily the Royals bats of Gordon, Moustakas and Cain have been red hot.
Can’t look past the Giants to take Game 1 here and end the Royals win streak just on the fact of how superior Bumgarner has been of late. However statistics don’t play baseball games, and it’s not the whole story. There is something about the Kansas team and if they win Game 1 I think you can pencil them in to win the whole thing. I’ll sit back and side with stats for Game 1 and give the edge to the Giants.
Suggested Bet
Giants at $1.90 (70%)
Other suggested bets
Giants to score first and win game double $2.34
Game 2
San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals (11am AEST Live on ESPN)
Giants – Jake Peavy
Royals – Yordano Ventura
Game 2 gives us Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA) up against Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA)
Peavy’s career post season numbers are not pretty, he is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.03. He was however solid in game 2 of the NLDS against Washington. In his NLCS start he only lasted 4 innings. As a former AL pitcher he has faced these Royals bats a bit in the past and they are hitting a solid .296 against him. Billy Butler a whopping .424 against him as well.
Ventura has been hit and miss this post season, Game 2 of the ALCS against Baltimore he allowed 4 runs in over 5 innings. Against the Angels in Game 2 of the ALDS he allowed only 1 run in 7 innings. They key here for the young pitcher is to minimise the amount of walks he gives. No doubt a future star pitcher it will be interesting to see how the young man handles this spotlight. I think he succeeds and am tipping Kansas to take Game 2.
Will be interesting to see what the Run line is set at, as this match up could produce some runs so the over on the run line and the -1.5 for the Royals may appeal.
Suggested Bet
Royals to win (85%)
Series Betting
Royals $1.86
Giants $1.94
Prediction
Royals. Seems like destiny and as much as I want to side with logic I’m hoping aboard the Royals train. What a great story it will be if they can deliver.
Suggested Bet
A small play on Royals in 6 games at $5.30
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing unless stated otherwise.
Confidence levels bracketed
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. Feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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