The last day of the regular season is finally upon us. What a ride it has been. Post Season baseball is only a few days away and even more excitement is just around the corner. Hard to look past one of Baltimore, Washington or LA Angels winning the whole thing however in baseball anything can happen and room for error is so little. A fair bit of drama can still await us on the final day as a few divisions still need to be sorted and a wild card spot in the AL. If there is a tie at the top of a division then a one game tie breaker occurs on Tuesday (AEST) to settle the division title. Not many markets available due to not knowing the situations with pitchers so looks hard to find value. We shall try none the less.
Monday 29th
Best Bet – Brewers/Nationals at $2.44
With the post season only days away, there are better days ahead to be having a bet.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals (3.30am AEST)
Marlins ($2.47) – Alvarez
Pirates ($1.57) – Zimmermann
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($2.09) Under 7.0 ($1.77)
Prediction
Nationals. A team that is rolling at the moment and just getting the job done the Nats have a full head of steam as the playoffs approach. Zimmermann has been superb of late picking up only 1 loss in his last 12 starts. He is 13-5 with an ERA 2.78 on the season. Washington have clinched the NL’s top seed and will play the winner of the wild card game in either Pittsburgh or San Francisco. With enough days rest before they start the playoffs I wouldn’t be worried about them resting players. Miami have had a tough time of it since team MVP Stanton got that horrific injury, a team for the future though and injuries aside this season has been a step in the right direction for them. In Alvarez they have another exciting young pitcher 12-6 with an ERA of 2.70 is pretty darn good. Miami have generally lacked runs since Stanton got injured (apart from a big win the other day) and Nationals are playing great baseball. Think the Nats end the regular season with a Win.
Suggested Bet
Nationals to win
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (4am AEST)
Cubs ($2.51) – Turner
Brewers ($1.56) – Fiers
Over/Under – Over 7.5 ($1.99) Under 7.5 ($1.86)
Prediction
Brewers. After what can only be described as a choke of epic proportions the Brewers are ending the 2014 season much earlier than they should be. 120 days a top the NL Central and unable to even grab a wild card spot what a disappointing end its been for the Brew crew. They will at least be wanting to end the season with a home win over a rival NL Central team in the Cubs. Fiers has been a bit of a surprise starter with a decent record of 6-4 and an ERA of 1.94. The Cubs will counter with young pitcher Jacob Turner. He is only coming to terms with the league and in only 29 innings pitched for the Cubs since moving from Miami his ERA is 6.89. Record sits at 5-11 on the season. Can’t see him winning here so have to side with the Brewers.
Suggested Bet
Brewers to win
Other Suggested Bets
Oakland A’s vs Texas Rangers (5am AEST)
The season comes down to one game tomorrow for Oakland. The early season favs to win the whole thing have collapsed and their hopes rest on the shoulders of Sonny Gray as he starts against the Texas Rangers. After a loss on Saturday they need to win to grab that last wild card spot. I think they do. Price should be around the $1.60 mark once it opens up.
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners (6am AEST)
Mariners somehow have a chance to make the post season. It comes down to King Felix needing to get the M’s a win and the A’s to lose. He will be out to pitch the game of his life. The atmosphere will be incredible and I think they win this. Expect the Mariners to start around $1.50.
Post Season Plays
World Series
- Angels $5.50
- Dodgers $6
- Nationals $6
- Tigers $7
- Orioles $8
- Cardinals $11
- A’s $11
- Pirates $13
- Giants $14
- Royals $15
- Mariners $101
Note: At time of writing neither the A’s or Mariners had guaranteed a spot in the post season.
Why they Win
Angels – Trout. Offense and a lot of it
Dodgers – Kershaw. Well rounded team.
Nationals – Most balanced team, fantastic starting and closing pitchers.
Orioles – Home runs. Solid bullpen.
Cardinals – Experience in big games.
Tigers – Experience in big games and good starting pitching
Giants – Well rounded team and history of post season brilliance.
Pirates – Mc Cutchen and Martin.
A’s – Billy Beane and John Lester
Royals – Solid pitching and in fine form when it counts.
Why they won’t Win
Angels – Bullpen issues still
Dodgers – Kershaw can’t pitch every game
Nationals – May have peaked too early
Orioles – Injuries finally catch up with them
Cardinals – Lack of runs
Tigers – A bullpen that couldn’t close a door let alone a playoff game
Giants – Runs still an issue
Pirates – Reliance on 2 key players
A’s –Trading Cespedes away. Runs have dried up since
Royals – Lack of runs. Should of won AL Central.
Prediction
Nationals
Suggested Bets
Nationals with a saver on Orioles.
Be back mid week for the Wild Card games and start of the 2014 MLB Post Season.
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
