Welcome back to another preview of a few games in the MLB for the weekend. The past week saw the first set of teams win their division. Baltimore, LA Angels and Washington all are set to go for the post season, who will join them is the big question. Dodgers and Cardinals look set to win their division and the Tigers and Royals fight over the AL Central. However both leagues wild card match ups don’t look like being decided just yet. There are a few key series coming up this week that will impact on the wild card race and to some extent those divisions that are still not finalised. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee currently in a 3 game series, as are the Tigers and Royals. Mid week sees the Giants get there last chance to overtake the Dodgers in the NL west. A lot of key games that will no doubt have the feel of a postseason match up.
Sunday 21st
Best Bet – Orioles $1.54 (-1.5 at $2.14 for value)
Multi – Pirates/Orioles/Angels to win at $3.89
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9am AEST)
Brewers ($2.15) – Garza
Pirates ($1.74) – Volquez
Over/Under – Over 7.5 ($2.01) Under 7.5 ($1.84)
Prediction
Pirates. Important set of games between the 2 this weekend, with Pittsburgh taking the first game 4-2 on the back of a Russell Martin 3 run home run. This match up pits Matt Garza up against Edison Volquez. Garza is slowly working his way back from the DL and in those 3 starts he has not been very solid. 8-8 on the season with a 3.74 ERA. In his 2 starts against the Pirates this season his ERA is 6.55 and opponents batting .304. Volquez has come on leaps and bounds since a rough early season, currently 12-7 with an ERA of 3.27. In his last 8 starts he is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.73. Although the Brewers lead the season series 11-6 they are hardly the team that started so well and were top of the division at the All Star break. Going 8-17 in their last 25 games saying they are on a downward spiral would be an understatement. Pittsburgh are one of the best fastball hitting teams (Harrison and Walker amongst the league’s best) and with Garza throwing the fastball almost 70% of the time it’s bound to give the Pirates an even bigger edge. Pittsburgh to win for me, the over run line sounds good but in the 17 meeting between the teams this season it’s only hit over 7.5 runs 7 times.
Suggested Bet
Pirates to win
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals (3am AEST)
Tigers ($2.05) – Scherzer
Royals ($1.84) – Shields
Over/Under – Over 7.0 ($1.92) Under 7.0 ($1.92)
Prediction
Tigers. A game I’m not to keen to pick the winner with the Tigers and Royals both regularly missing for me this season. Detroit have started to warm up as the post season gets closer, however I feel like I’ve said it before with them. With a terrible bullpen a lead is never safe. Scherzer is 16-5 with an ERA of 3.26. However in the 3 starts against the Royals this season his ERA balloons to 5.30. Shields is 14-7 with an ERA of 3.15 on the year. Against the Tigers though it sits at 4.05. Tigers lead the season series 12-5 and a win here puts a little more breathing space in the race for the AL Central. Think we could see a few runs from both teams so I’m happy to play the over 7.0 run line. Tigers at $2.05 is decent as this game looks to be a toss of the coin.
Suggested Bet
Over 7.0 Runs
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles (9am AEST)
Red Sox ($2.55) – De La Rosa
Orioles ($1.54) – Tillman
Over/Under – Over 8.0 ($1.92) Under 8.0 ($1.92)
Prediction
Orioles. Baltimore continue to roll along at get the job done as they search for the best record in the league. Even with players out injured or suspended they are getting role players to step up and deliver. I like them to win the American League and I think they can overtake the Angels for the league’s best record also. They will have to win here is they want that and with Tillman pitching for them I can’t see any other outcome. 12-5 with an ERA of 3.29. In his last 10 starts Baltimore have won them all. Boston youngster De La Rosa is 4-7 with an ERA of 4.31 and has had a rough time of late failing to pitch at least 6 innings in his last 4 starts. Shocked that the Orioles are at a price that is even worth taking, a great parlay anchor here at the $1.54 price. Solid at home 49-30 with their ace on the mound against a team with an average pitcher and little to play for. Orioles for me. The -1.5 is at $2.16 and is my play.
Suggested Bet
Orioles -1.5
Other Suggested Bets
Texas Rangers vs LA Angels (11am AEST)
After a big loss on Saturday against the league’s worst team the Angels will look to bounce back and with Weaver on the mound they will want to win and keep that best record in the league status going. No surprise they are so short at $1.46 but it’s a nice addition to a parlay play as they should be way too strong and can’t see them losing 2 in a row to Texas.
Will be back soon with a few more games as the race to the postseason continues
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
