So after a fun opening week of Baseball and what was a great day on the couch on Opening Day we move into week 2 of the 2014 MLB season. We started well on opening day with Best Bet, Next Best and Multi all landing but missed the following days on some close calls and also on some blow outs. That’s Baseball and if you bet on Baseball you are going to have a lot of close calls.
Baseball is a huge numbers game, it’s all statistics and averages. It’s going to take at least a month of play before we get a good idea of where teams are heading, what players are improving and what players are in a radical decline *cough* CC Sabathia *cough*. This does not mean we cannot find value. In fact there is tonnes of value. Did anyone grab the Dodgers at $1.90 on Thursday when they cruised the win. Who had a play on the over 6.5 runs between Angels and Seattle on opening day. Also top work to those who nabbed Astros to beat Yankees in the opener of that series. I know I didn’t.
WHAT DID WE LEARN – WEEK 1
- Marlins Pitcher Jose Fernandez is a beast. If the Marlins offense can be consistent he could push 20 Wins this season.
- Over’s on Over/Under lines of 6.5 are always value. In AL games (AL team home game in Interleague applies also) this is even better.
- Don’t bet on the Yankees. Yet!. This whole Derek Jeter side show farewell tour thing needs to die down. I for one will be waiting to see them a bit more before I make any plays on them. They are officially blacklisted from my betting for this coming week. Although They have looked more settled the last few days. Tanaka was impressive after a rough start.
- Short priced favourites can give you heart problems. Looking at Detroit and Pittsburgh.
Sunday 6th
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins (10am AEST)
Padres ($2.28) – Cashner
Marlins ($1.66) – Fernandez
Over/Unders – Over 6.0 ($1.82) Under 6.0 ($2.03)
Prediction
Marlins. Great matchup between two of the games best young pitchers. I was really impressed with Cashner he should get plenty of Wins this season. I was probably more impressed with the Marlins offense so far this season. Stanton leading the offense they seem to be putting up runs with ease.
Suggested Bet
Marlins -1.5
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays (10am AEST)
Rangers ($2.57) – Martinez
Rays ($1.53) – Price
Over/Unders – Over 7.5 ($2.11) Under 7.5 ($1.76)
Prediction
Rays. Going to keep myself on the Price bandwagon for this game. He is just so solid. Martinez is unproven at this level, even though solid in a Spring training game. Price has a good record at home and I’m picking it to continue here.
Suggested Bet
Rays
St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (10am AEST)
Cardinals ($2.16) – Kelly
Pirates ($1.73) – Liriano
Over/Unders – Over 7.0 ($2.05) Under 7.0 ($1.80)
Prediction
Pirates. After a nice win on Saturday AEST, I can see the Bucs taking the 2nd game in this series as well. Liriano is so solid at home I give the Pirates an ever so slight edge in this. His record last season against the Cards was 3-0 with a 0.75 era. Kelly gave the Pirates plenty of problems last season as well. It’s a nice pitching duel that’s for sure so the Unders could be the play here if you are are in to that sort of thing. I don’t like the no result figures on O/U markets. Give me a clear result just add the 0.5 and adjust the price. TAB would be location for any O/U bet then.
Suggested Bet
Pirates.
Other Suggested Bets
Colorado Rockies to beat Arizona Diamondbacks
Love the look of the Rockies batters, and Diamondbacks pitching has started slow.
Best Bet – Miami Marlins -1.5 at $2.55
Next Best Bet – Rockies -1.5 at $ 2.51
Multi – Marlins, Rays and Rockies to win at $4.30
Monday 7th
Markets not yet available.
San Fransico Giants vs LA Dodgers (Live ESPN 10am AEST)
Giants – Cain
Dodgers – Greinke
Over/Unders –
Prediction
Dodgers. Cain has not been his best against the Dodgers the last few seasons and Greinke is consistent to say the least. Just see the Dodgers getting the runs up against Cain to push this their way. Overs could be the play if set at 7.5 or lower.
Suggested Bet
Dodgers. However depends on market on O/U.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox (3.30am AEST)
Brewers – Gallardo
Red Sox – Lester
Over/Unders –
Prediction
Red Sox. Boston need to get the season going and after a losing the first in this series on the day of handing out their World Series rings they are due to put some runs up. Lester to be too strong for these Brewers. Think The Sox will win well.
Suggested Bet
Red Sox -1.5
Baltimore Orioles vs Detriot Tigers (3.30am AEST)
Orioles – Tillman
Tigers – Verlander
Over/Unders –
Prediction
Tigers. Much like with the Rays David Price, I have to keep following Verlander at the moment. You know you are getting a decent start defensively with him on the mound and your giving your team a great chance to grab an early lead. It’s the closers for Detroit that give me a little concern however they have the offense to finish off teams late in games as we have already seen this season. Tillman was great on the opening day. His record away from home is not the best. His ERA against the Tigers over the last 3 seasons reads 6.52.
Suggested Bet
Tigers
Other Suggested Bets
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals
Under 7.5 runs if this is what the market plays at.
Best Bet – Boston -1.5
Multi – Dodgers, Tigers, Red Sox all to win.
Tuesday 8th
Markets not yet available.
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox (Live ESPN 10am AEST)
Rangers ($2.47) – Scheppers
Red Sox ($1.57) – Lackey
Over/Unders – 9.0
Prediction
Red Sox. Scheppers being turned into a starter did not start well the other day. I expect it to get worse. I see plenty of runs in this one and im keen to see the O/U line set. Should be a great game to watch. Lackey will probably give up a few runs as he usually does, a 4.61 ERA at home last 3 seasons. Boston hitters to win this one.
Suggested Bet
Over on a 9.0 O/U line.
Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals (6am AEST)
Reds ($2.21) – Cingrani
Cardinals ($1.70) – Wacha
Over/Unders – 6.5
Prediction
Cardinals. Wacha is a very impressive young pitcher. Cingrani fills that mould as well. Could be another low scoring game between these 2 teams which seems to be the norm. Cardinals to win just on another good Wacha performance.
Suggested Bet
Cardinals should be a good price on the H2H.
Other Suggested Bets
Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies
Expect the over/under line to be set at 8.5. Will play over’s on this. If set at 9.5 maybe a less of a play.
Plenty of Baseball to bet on as usual. These are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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