Welcome back to another preview for the coming days action in the world of Major League Baseball. Just one week away from the All Star Break and the always fun Home Run Derby and the picture for what teams can challenge starts to become clearer. I will look at that more in depth during the All Star break, find the contenders and rule out the pretenders. Today saw the first big name player trade with the Cubs moving Samardzija and Hamel to the A’s for a huge prospect and some handy types. This could start the ball rolling with Rays Price, the next big name on the trading block. Interesting few weeks ahead. Let’s get to the games.
Sunday 6th
Best Bet
0 runs 1st inning Giants/Padres at $1.64 (2U)
Next Best
Tigers -1.5 at $2.37 (0.5)
Multi
Cardinals/Mariners/Dodgers at $5.28 (0.5U)
Looks like a tough day with some of the Total Run markets just set terrible. I have noticed a trend in the last week with some of the lines being set too high by Australian bookmakers. Keep an eye out for that.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers (6am AEST)
Rays ($2.33) – Archer
Tigers ($1.64) – Sanchez
Over/Under – Over 8.0 ($2.05) Under 8.0 ($1.81)
Prediction
Tigers. With no loss tacked to his name since April 21, Sanchez is on a roll. 5-2 with an ERA of 2.63, he has been Detroit’s most consistent starter. Which is saying a lot when you look at that rotation. Getting 3 win in his last 4, he has been helped by a batting line up that has started to really get it together after a rough month. With Kinsler, V.Martinez, Cabrera and Hunter all formidable and experienced players, run support is always there abouts. Rays pitcher Archer has been up and down all season, 4-5 with an ERA of 3.24 he has at times deserved a win but has not been helped by the sluggish offense his team mates provide. Rays have been in decent form and are looking to over take the Red Sox in the AL East basement however I can’t see past a Tigers win with the current form they are in. Even though they took a loss on Saturday, they should make amends here with a pitching match up more in their favor.
Suggested Bet
Tigers -1.5 at $2.38
Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A’s (9am AEST)
Blue Jays ($2.17) – Buehrle
A’s ($1.72) – Kazmir
Over/Under – Over 7.5 ($1.94) Under 7.0 ($1.90)
Prediction
A’s. With two pitcher shaving stellar season, and way above expected this game looks hard to pick a winner with both teams having great batting, 1st and 4th in the Majors. I’m going to side with the A’s. Kazmir 9-3 with an ERA of 2.61 has not looked his best in his last 2 starts, however they were on the road. His record at home is much better with an ERA of 1.61 going 5-1 in 7 starts. Buehrle has got 0-4 in his last 5 starts, unable to pick up a win since the start of June. He has not had the best run support over that period, and it seems as though as the Home runs have dried up for the Jays so has the wins. Going to lean with the A’s here, and interesting to note that not 1 of the 5 meeting this year between the two have gone Over the 7.5 run line. Considering they are two of the best teams in terms of run production this is a surprise. Jays currently lead that series 3-2.
Suggested Bet
A’s to win.
Other Suggested Bets
Houston Astros vs LA Angels (12pm AEST)
An Angles lineup that has been hot of late, lead by AL MVP favourite Mike Trout, have been putting up runs for fun. Coming up against a pitcher who has improved of late and a team that’s offense has also improved with the like of Springer and Altuve leading the way. Predicting some runs in this one and Over 8.5 runs is the way I’m leaning at $1.82
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres (9am AEST)
Two teams that offense is an issue for. Two pitchers who have been pitching well, even though Hudson has regressed of late. Giants bats were hot early in the season regularly winning by 2 or more runs. They have dropped off a lot and this is a huge concern moving forward for them. A few injuries is no excuse. Low scoring game and the line is set at 6.5. Taking the 0 runs in the 1st inning here as the best play for the day at $1.64
Monday 7th
Best Bets throughout the week will be posted on Twitter once markets are available
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates (3.30am AEST)
Phillies – Burnett
Pirates – Locke
Prediction
Pirates. Interesting match up here, with the case of the master vs the apprentice. Burnett was a leader on the Pirates team for 2 season and Locke in particular got a lot of help and advice from the now Phillies Ace. Locke has been excellent since his return from Triple A issuing just 5 walks in over 41 innings. 1-1 on the season with an ERA of 3.46. Though since his latest promotion he has an ERA of just over 1.0 in 5 games. Burnett is still a great pitcher even at his age, 5-7 on the season with an ERA of 3.92, he has struggled to get some wins due to the run support of the Phillies. Pittsburgh have looked like a different team in the last month and their offense has really picked it up, bullpen still an issue at times though and the trade getting rid of Grilli now seems a tad odd considering the amount of runs they have been giving up late. Taking the Pirates bats to get the job done though and the apprentice to pick up a win against his old master.
Suggested Bet
Pirates to win.
Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals (3.30am AEST)
Cubs – Arrieta
Nationals – Zimmermann
Prediction
Nationals. Zimmermann is coming off a dominant June which he posted an ERA of 1.43 in 6 starts. Currently 6-4 on the season with an ERA of 2.95 he has been a huge reason for the resurgence of the Nats as the look to continue pushing the Braves for the NL East. Arrieta has been a bright spot for the Cubs and now with Samardzija gone they will look to him to lead the pitching rotation. Mighty impressive with back to back quality starts winning his last 4 starts pitching at least 7 innings in each. This Cubs team has a huge future and are starting to get a few guys hot with the bat. Rizzo, Castro and Ruggiano all impressive of late. The Nats have some power of their own and now with the other Zimmermann and Harper back in the line up they have the power to get runs on the board. However I think this is a pitching duel with 2 inform pitchers face to face should be a good game and predicting a close game. If the line is set as I expect at 7.5 will play the Under’s.
Suggested Bet
Under on Run Line (Waiting for market)
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting, hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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