Welcome back to a preview of some MLB action to start off your work week. It’s been a steady record of late, a win here and some loses there, however still in a decent amount of profit for the year so let’s try and get the week off to a good start. A limited day of action means only 8 games in play with a fair few amount of short prices being thrown around. Can be risky in baseball to take the shorties but it’s still a winner if you get it right, line and run totals may have more value in some of these games. I don’t think you can or should be taking something under the $1.70 mark if it’s not a top quality pitcher starting. Something I may touch on in a future article. For today though, time to find some value.
Tuesday 9th
Best Bet – Pirates at $1.61
Next Best – Dodgers -1.5 at $2.34
Multi – Pirates/Braves/Dodgers at $4.40
Miami Marlins v Toronto Blue Jays (9.05am AEST)
Marlins ($2.42) – Hand (1-1, 4.24)
Blue Jays ($1.59) – Estrada (2-3, 3.77)
Prediction
Blue Jays. Strong home team in the Jays (17-12 home) welcome a pretty weak road team in the Marlins (12-17 away). Currently on a 5 game win streak the potent bats of the Toronto line up, lead by Donaldson as heating up. Miami are in one of their better stretches of the season winning 4 of their last 5. Blue Jays should win this one though, they have covered the -1.5 in their last 5 wins so i’ll stick wit that.
Suggested Bet
Jays -1.5 at $2.22
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9.05am AEST)
Brewers ($2.38) – Nelson (2-6, 4.41)
Pirates ($1.61) – Burnett (6-1, 2.20)
Prediction
Pirates. A red hot Pittsburgh team heads home after going 7-3 on a road trip, including a 3 game sweep of last year’s World Series winning Giants. They do tend to struggle against central division rivals, whether it be a mental thing or just bad luck. AJ Burnett is in great form, however don’t expect him to continue this trend. He is due a rough outing soon, and I for one would be shocked if his ERA ended the season below 3.00. So expect some regression. In the meantime the Pirates are hitting well, even though defensively iffy the last week still managing to win. Brewers have been able to find a way to win when they tack on a lot of runs, but that’s about it. They are a pretty average team and Pirates should take at least 2 of the 3 games in this series. Hopefully starting with this one.
Suggested Bet
Pirates at $1.61
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves (9.10am AEST)
Padres ($2.18) – Kennedy (3-5, 6.60)
Braves ($1.72) – Miller (5-2, 1.89)
Prediction
Braves. A team who is in the rebuilding phase but still managing to stay competitive. It’s an impressive thing to do, in part being lead by Shelby Miller and a very good defensive infield. San Diego have really been put together as a bit of a mishmash, no real reasoning, apart from a few big names. It’s not entirely working out. They had high hopes for the season to rival the Dodgers in the NL West, that looks like a pipe dream. Kennedy has struggled, and the pitching matchup goes to the Braves. The $1.73 available is decent.
Suggested Bet
Braves at $1.73
Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox (10.10am AEST)
Astros ($2.24) – Mc Cullers (2-0, 1.88)
White Sox ($1.68) – Sale (5-2, 3.27)
Prediction
White Sox. A decent pitching match up here. With the red hot Chris Sale facing against a solid young arm in Lance McCullers. Sale has 53 strikeouts in his last 5 games. That is impressive. After a rocky start he is finding his form. The Astros have managed to keep the wins ticking over to stay a top the AL West with a combination of fine pitching and important hitting. They have hit a losing patch though and coming up against an in form ace in Sale is not ideal. I like the Sportsbet daily double on offer here.
Suggested Bet
White Sox at $1.68
Other Bets
Sale to record 8 or more K’s and Sox to win at $3.75 (Sportsbet)
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins (10.10am AEST)
Royals ($1.95) – Vargas (4-2, 4.79)
Twins ($1.89) – Hughes (4-5, 4.96)
Prediction
Royals. Two teams that have cooled off after hot starts to the season. Neither pitcher showing great stuff and getting their wins off the back of good bats. Hughes is coming off his shortest start of the season giving up 5 runs in over 4 innings. Vargas is coming only recently off the treatment table and has been okay since returning. I can’t separate this one, could be runs as a lot of the Twins home games tend to have.
Suggested Bet
Over 8.5 Runs at $2.03
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers (12.10pm AEST)
D-Backs ($2.44) – De La Rosa (4-2, 5.09)
Dodgers ($1.59) – Bolsinger (3-1, 1.98)
Prediction
Dodgers. Coming off a big series against the MLB’s best Cardinals the Dodgers will be happy to see the D-backs at their door step. A home record of 22-10, and also a sweep of the D-backs last time the visited. Hard to look past a Dodgers win. Arizona can put up runs though lead by a sure MVP candidate in Paul Goldschmidt. Problem is, can they stop the Dodgers from putting up theirs. Bolsinger has been unhittable at home posting at 0.46 ERA in Dodger Stadium. The over 7.5 looks tempting, but I feel LA win this by a few.
Suggested Bet
Dodgers -1.5 at $2.34
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
For records. Best Bet 2 Units, Next Best 1 Unit, Multi 0.5 Units (unless stated otherwise)
Home Run Charity Update
Current Home Runs for our Charity (http://www.makeawish.org.au/)
Stanton – 18
Trout –16
Total – $340
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
