Welcome back to a small little preview of couple of selected MLB games. After a down week in last weeks action the weekend and Monday returned me to winning ways. It’s a small slate of games for Tuesday but never the less there looks to be a few nice series starting and as usual potential to get some winnings. Only 2 plays but one I’m definitely very keen on one of them.
Tuesday 6th
Best Bet – Brewers $2.10 (2u)
Double – Astros/Nats $3.57 (0.5u)
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants (9.40am AEST)
Brewer ($2.10) – Guerra (1-0, 1.84 ERA)
Giants ($1.76) – Samardjiza (1-7, 4.63 ERA)
Ok I’ve been betting on baseball for many years and this one may be one of the more confusing ones. Not sure how you have Giants so short here, maybe if it was at AT&T Park but not Miller Park. Yes Junior Guerra is not nearly as experienced as Samardzija, age yes but not MLB time. In 2016 Guerra went 9-3 in 20 games started with a 2.81 ERA, 2.23 at home and a .201 BAA. The Shark on the other hand has had probably his worst season since 2010. A 4.87 Road ERA and yet to register a win. However the most striking stat is that over the last few seasons at Miller Park he has gone 0-3 in 3 starts with a .369 BAA and a 10.05 ERA. Yes 10.05. The Giants are 12 games under .500 and 10-21 on the road. So how on earth do you ever have them at $1.76. The Brewers have slowed down a bit after a strong start to the season, but still rank 5th in the MLB in runs compared to the 28th ranked Giants. San Fran have some serious batting issues this season with hardly any power. Winners of 1 of their last 6 the Giants are hardly in fine form. Miller Park a better pitcher at the moment, a better offense a better record. How do you not take this crazy price. It’s baseball and anything can happen but that you have to take Brewers here.
Suggested Bet – Brewers to win $2.10
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros (10.15am AEST)
Royals ($2.18) – Kennedy (0-5, 5.12 ERA)
Astros ($1.71) – Fiers (2-2, 4.96 ERA)
The Houston Astros are on a roll, currently 41-16 on the season and even better 21-6 on the road. By far the best team in baseball at the moment we have to take them at the price here. Fiers is probably going to give us some heart palpitations, he gives up a heck of a lot of long balls. There was a tweet I saw not too long ago that read *Mike Fiers tosses valet his car keys* *Valet hits the keys 430 feet*. Its pretty accurate. He is lucky he has a good offense with him and thats why we are taking the Astros again. Ian Kennedy has been pretty ordinary in 2017, yet to grab a win after 9 starts. Giving up the fly ball too often, against a powerful Houston line up he could face some issues. Although his home splits are better than his work on the road it still isn’t great, A 4.39 ERA in 5 starts. Winners of 10 straight worth taking them for something small but don’t expect it to be smooth sailing.
Suggested Bet – Astros to win $1.71
Other Games
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals
I have some faith restored in the Nats, and with Byrce Harper back after his suspension I’m even more confident in this play. Ryu has been iffy this seasons and Gio Gonzalez is just the better pitcher at the moment. Anytime you can get Nats at over even money its worth taking some way. At $2/08 pretty happy to take them. Last time i backed Nats in LA the famous Michael Alien Taylor incident occured. Please not again.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
